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lol. 10th. haha. kidding yourself. aint nowhere near that. 34th. I'd love to know how I can have a mare when I correctly predicted his stats 6 months ahead of time. lol.
24 non-negotiable as miles ahead of Rayner: Brayshaw, LDU, Fritsch, Naughton, Dylan Moore, Zac Bailey, Ed Richards, Tim Kelly, Balta, Liam Ryan, Brent Daniels, Sam Taylor, Tom De Koning, Tom McCartin, Worpel, Miers, Meek, Xerri, Liam Baker, Mihocek, Cerra, Higgins, Starcevich, Oscar Allen
So then the next bracket (11 players) that Rayner is in: Ainsworth, Will Powell, Petty, Bonar, Fogarty, Rayner, Nathan Murphy (now out of the game), Farrell, Switkowski, Holman, Amartey.
So we can argue until we're blue in the face about where Rayner sits from this draft class, but the arguments are between 25-35 in this draft. And I have him at 34. No-one could argue a logical case for him being anywhere near this top 24.
Your focus on this most recent year, where he hasn't even improved from last year, and your reluctance to look at their 6 year career to date shows just how bad his career has been to date. You can't understand the very basic principle that a players value in a draft is based on their total football produced over their career yeah?
And people think that a measly 14-15 possession, 1.1 goals a game is swinging is value? Absolutely mind-boggling logic.
Average career player ratings 2017 draft crop below. Pretty sure they are all playing now bar Nathan Murphy and I've captured everyone who is playing still.
Things to note
* = has benefitted from playing much fewer games at younger ages, and more at a mature age.
** = tall players who played a lot of games from a young age so should fairly be adjusted to a higher average player rating.
1. T Kelly 12.2*
2. Uniacke 11.98
3. Moore 11.37*
4. Worpedo 11.1
5. Taylor 10.58**
6. Brayshaw 10.54
7. Switkowski 10.54*
8. Meek 9.97*
9. T Dekoning 9.92*
10. Cerra 9.9
11. Xerri 9.79*
12. Richards 9.75
13. L Baker 9.59*
14. Bailey 9.57
15. Barely Avfritsch 9.33*
16. Daniels 9.24
17. Liam Ryan 9.18*
18. Naughton 9.15**
19. Miller 9.11*
20. Higgins 8.92
21. Miers 8.88
22. Balta 8.69
23. Powell 8.55
24. D Fogarty 8.45*
25. Rayner 8.44
26. Farrell 8.3*
27. Allen 8.26
28. McCartin 8.12**
29. Mihocek 7.98*
30. Ballard 7.90
31. Stephenson 7.78
32. Dow 7.64
33. L Fogarty 7.6*
34. B Zerk 7.58*
35. L Murphy 7.49
36. Clark 7.3
37. Payne 7.11*
38. Petrucelle 6.97
39. Banfield 6.89*
40. Guelfi 6.76*
41. Petty 6.62*
42. Starcevich 6.55
43. Spargo 6.35**
44. Nathan Murphy 6.17
45. Amartey 6.12*
46. Coffield 5.99
47. Coleman-Jones 5.83
48. Paton 5.54
49. O Baker 5.44*
So you are right danster, there are 24 players ahead of Rayner on performance so far. But they are not exactly the 24 you named, but you weren't too far off to be fair. The thing is Rayner in 2024 has gone ahead of a heap of them, and looks poised to rise up this list all going well for him. There are quite a few ahead of him who have benefitted from having the vast majority of their matches played skewed towards them being much more mature than Rayner. The other thing is that Rayner has done an ACL and is one of only a small number from this draft to suffer really serious injuries. That has clearly handicapped him a little.
Another thing to note here is the ruckmen seem to accumulate a lot of ratings points, and i think the ratings points are skewed a lot more towards them now with the new ruck rules. So ruckmen appear to be over-rated by the ratings system. And key position players are clearly under-rated by ratings system, Taylor, Naughton, Balta and Allen in particular would clearly be amongst the most valuable 10 or so players from this draft crop if traded this year.
We can also see there are 11 x 1 Asterisk players ahead of Rayner and I think all going as expected he will reel most of them in over the next few years.
Last comment here on this. Sam Taylor is I think now in reality top of this draft class based on both performance so far and future value. And Oskar Baker is yet another absolute ****ing spud taken by the Demons at this draft. What on earth were they thinking?
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