Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[swuzzlebubble]

Losing a prelim is not equivalent to finishing top 4 on the ladder

In terms of how your season went it is

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Swans are feeling happy now are they? 1st?

Are you deliberately being naive?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Are you deliberately being naive?

You're saying Voss is on notice because (essentially) he hasn't finished top 4.
If he had to finish top 4 next year to keep his job and ended up 5-8 after h&a but went on to lose a PF does he keep his job or not?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

In terms of how your season went it is

The point about finishing top 4 is it gives you the best chance to win the flag. This is why teams strive for it...

Finish top 4, you have much stronger chances of making it to a prelim... therefore, winning a flag. Finish outside top 4 and you need to win 2 games to get there, including an away semi final...

This is why it very rarely happens...

 

[bradfisher14]

In terms of how your season went it is

They are two completely separate things.

We did well in finals last season. No doubt about it. We showed we have the talent to match it with anyone on any given day.

But we have yet to show the level of consistent excellence required to finish top four after a whole home and away season.

It’s okay to acknowledge our growth areas. IMO there’s no need for creating false equivalences to justify our previous achievements.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

You're saying Voss is on notice because (essentially) he hasn't finished top 4.
If he had to finish top 4 next year to keep his job and ended up 5-8 after h&a but went on to lose a PF does he keep his job or not?

Making a prelim would almost guarantee he stays...

But like I've been saying, I don't like our chances of that happening if we don't finish top 4 next year...

 

[Stamos]

They are two completely separate things.

We did well in finals last season. No doubt about it. We showed we have the talent to match it with anyone on any given day.

But we have yet to show the level of consistent excellence required to finish top four after a whole home and away season.

It’s okay to acknowledge our growth areas. IMO there’s no need for creating false equivalences to justify our previous achievements.

The false equivalence is ignoring the actual finishing order

 

[swuzzlebubble]

They are two completely separate things

Only one of which was being discussed

 

[Blue_Fusion]

The false equivalence is ignoring the actual finishing order

You're ignoring the whole point of striving for a top 4 finish at the end of H&A...

 

[Benaly28]

Friend spoke to him at the GF today - said he’ll either be at Brisbane or stay at the Blues. Wants to stay.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He couldn’t possibly get a game at the lions surely,who does he replace.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[bradfisher14]

The false equivalence is ignoring the actual finishing order

There’s two separate finishing orders:

1. Ladder after H&A season
2. Finals performance

 

[CCurnow3votes]

There’s two separate finishing orders:

1. Ladder after H&A season
2. Finals performance

Yes, Brisbane are tonight celebrating finishing 5th H&A!

 

[Arr0w]

Again, beside the point... you need to put yourself in a position to win it first... they've done so consistently over the last 6 seasons... we've done it once...

I understand how things have played out for both clubs, my stance hasn't changed, no matter where the Lions have finished, they started their rebuild in 2013 and only just won a flag

Statistically we all know it's better to finish top 3

Turning this into some point about linearity is ridiculous...

It's not actually, plenty of examples of sides making finals, dropping out of tge 8, then winning a flag, progress isn't linear

We have most certainly underachieved, denying so is your choice... but not realistic...

That comes back to expectations and or some form of analysis

I predicted 13-16 wins, so with how I saw what was possible, we didn't underachieve. Do I believe we had an opportunity to push out more wins, absolutely

We're getting there... the recent flag winners have had extensive top 4 finishes and finals results...

Everyone is aware of these facts, but they just won a flag from 5th, Demons won a flag, finishing 9th the year prior

We should all acknowledge that statistics suggest it's easier finishing top 3, a 1 in 3 chance

Agree we need to rejuvenate... that's why we don't waste R1 picks on hbf like Houston...

That's an opinion only, not a statistical fact that you can't win a flag by trading a 28 year old with 1st

That's how the club should be seeing it... they stated that finals was the goal in 2022... fail. They stated top 4 this year... fail.

Plenty of clubs make these statements, if you want to base pass or failure on marketing speak rather than dissecting what is possible, that's your choice

Like I said, another 2-3 years and most of our starting 22 will be too old to contend...

History/facts, suggest otherwise, but I'm sure we can debate that in 2-3 years

 

[Stamos]

There’s two separate finishing orders:

1. Ladder after H&A season
2. Finals performance

Only one of those two actually counts for anything.

(hint: it’s no. 2)

 

[Arr0w]

There’s two separate finishing orders:

1. Ladder after H&A season
2. Finals performance

There is only 1 order, winning flags

Beyond that, is analysing what is actually achievable by a group

 

[Jimmae]

We’re going to give up a good goal scoring player and in return prolly get a 3rd rounder.

He may have limitations but he kicks goals and he’s not on big $$.

Keep owies even if it means paying him a bit extra and move on players under performing.

He might be earning substantially more due to the contract interest, and that might turn him into a pick in the 30s.

Think Tom Bell.

 

[Michael Jezz]

And now you start playing the poster again

Lions who 3 merger flags, prior to today, a rebuild that started in 2013

Seriously, people using a grand final winner as a basis of what we are doing is so predictable

What do you think of the Swans being spanked today like we did against the Lions while playing them at the Gabba

Or was it that we were closer to a spoon than making the 8

My views have lways been realistic, about what we are capable of achieving each year

If people want to hold an over pessimistic or over optimistic view, that's their prerogative, but comfortable how I see our club at this current point in time, or where we have come from

The above is a word salad. Our length of time to be successful is not comparable to the Lions

 

[Arr0w]

The above is a word salad. Our length of time to be successful is not comparable to the Lions

Of course it isn't, but it's still a viable measuring stick

What happened today between the Lions and Swans plays no part in where we have come from and what's possible moving into next year and beyond

 

[Hands On]

It looks like the swans will always be the bridesmaids and not the bride at the big dance. May be time to go hard and see if we can shake down some players from the sky? Austin, I'm looking at you!

 

[Its an amigo!]

Losing a prelim is not equivalent to finishing top 4 on the ladder.

Finishing the Home and Away 5th and going on to play in a prelim is way better than finishing the Home and Away 4th and not making the prelim.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I understand how things have played out for both clubs, my stance hasn't changed, no matter where the Lions have finished, they started their rebuild in 2013 and only just won a flag

Statistically we all know it's better to finish top 3

Hence the reason to want to finish top 4...

(and yes, I'm aware no team has won from 4th... but mathematically, the chances are better than 5-8)

It's not actually, plenty of examples of sides making finals, dropping out of tge 8, then winning a flag, progress isn't linear

We didn't drop out of the 8...

How many of those teams won from outside top 4?

That comes back to expectations and or some form of analysis

I predicted 13-16 wins, so with how I saw what was possible, we didn't underachieve. Do I believe we had an opportunity to push out more wins, absolutely

Nobody cares about your predictions...

The club have made it clear what their expectations were and they haven't been met... in 2/3 years under Voss...

Everyone is aware of these facts, but they just won a flag from 5th, Demons won a flag, finishing 9th the year prior

Would you want us finishing outside or inside top 4 next year?

We should all acknowledge that statistics suggest it's easier finishing top 3, a 1 in 3 chance

Finishing 3rd has the same mathematical chance as 4th. Statistically, it is strange that no team has ever won it from 4th...

That's an opinion only, not a statistical fact that you can't win a flag by trading a 28 year old with 1st

No trade produces a statistical fact regarding winning a flag... what a weird comment...

Prior to any trade, the outcome is always opinion based...

Plenty of clubs make these statements, if you want to base pass or failure on marketing speak rather than dissecting what is possible, that's your choice

So the talk coming from the club wasn't actually possible?

Nah, they were very realistic, it wasn't marketing speech at all... aiming for finals in 2022 was a realistic goal and certainly one the team was capable of achieving... ditto top 4 this year... when you make these goals public and don't reach them, then they deserve to be called out on these failures...

Like I said, nobody cares about your predictions... just like they don't care about mine...

If you really want to dissect what is possible... then we could finish anywhere on the ladder, including last... despite how unlikely it is...

History/facts, suggest otherwise, but I'm sure we can debate that in 2-3 years

Yeah, and I'm sure you'll find a way to twist what you said in 2-3 years time too...

 

[blue healer]

Finishing the Home and Away 5th and going on to play in a prelim is way better than finishing the Home and Away 4th and not making the prelim.

One of those can be a reality hit and the other a false dawn. Not sure either is better at all. I am sure neither puts a flag in your display cabinet.

 

[Jimmae]

You're ignoring the whole point of striving for a top 4 finish at the end of H&A...

Not when it cooks your ability to play deep into finals, which it seems Sydney have done to themselves this season. They did try to arrest it though, and their ladder position almost suffered for it.

But the Swans have issues at both ends of the ground, and they're barely going to make a dent in that this off-season.

 

[RPCB]

Only a group of Carlton supporters can bicker over where we finished after a season in which we won nothing.

“We finished 5th?”

“Nah, it was 3rd. As we lost in the PF.”

“But technically you only count the H&A season.”

“Nah.”

“What “nah”?

“Finals is an extension of the season, so we technically finished 3rd.”

A smart arse enters the chat…

Technically, as we lost the PF by 16 points and GWS lost the other PF by 1 point, we finished 4th.

“No, this isn’t an invitation by RPCB to enter the debate. I want no part of it.”

 

[bradfisher14]

Only one of those two actually counts for anything.

(hint: it’s no. 2)

There is only 1 order, winning flags

Beyond that, is analysing what is actually achievable by a group

Finishing the Home and Away 5th and going on to play in a prelim is way better than finishing the Home and Away 4th and not making the prelim.

Clearly the most important thing is performing in finals and ultimately winning a flag.

But history tells us that it is incredibly difficult to win a flag without finishing in the top 4 after the H&A season. History also tells us that finishing higher in the top four increases your chance to win the flag.

Therefore, we should be striving to finish top four/as high as possible on the ladder and the players/coaches should be held accountable to that expectation.

I don't understand why this is so difficult to grasp.