Are 'premiership windows' a thing of the past?

[juss]

I think premiership windows are very relevant. Although we'd like to go into a season thinking every clubs a chance at a flag, realistically, they are not. Clubs also can't maintain a very high standard of footy forever. We see all successful clubs rise and fall, though some admittedly fall further than others. Hawthorn, Collingwood, West Coast, Sydney for example are in a position to challenge for a flag next year. Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne and the Bulldogs for example, are not. We might not ever be able to predict the exact winner, but I'd bet my house at the start of the year I could pick the flag winner if given say 6 choices. Those would be teams in the premiership window.

 

[Portmanteau]

I dunno... it seems the teams that most people cite for there not being a premiership window - Geelong, Collingwood, Sydney and now perhaps Hawthorn all have a core of players who have guided their team's fortunes from the start of their 'window', until now.

Players can play at a high level for about 10 years now. Get half a dozen guns coming through and you're set for a long, long time.

 

[Mr Magic]

Really? Swans paid nowhere near the cap and didn't use the additional payment allowance but don't let facts get in the way.

Explain, why are clubs whinging about Tippet then.?

What was their facts for 2012??

 

[Mr Magic]

Sydney regenerated their side through clever trading, good drafting and good player development while they turned over their playing list.

2009 was the one year they missed the finals, and Rohan at pick 6 was the result of their 12th place finish that year. They never 'bottomed out' so to speak.

You can point to the CoL allowance all you like, but the fact is that no one at the club was getting paid big bucks, and it was reported that they didn't even pay 100% of the salary cap in 2012.

As for Collingwood, scroll up and read post #7.

It is irrelevant whether they bottomed out or not. The bottom line is Sydney are a new team. Just because Goodes was in both teams doesn't mean they are the same team Sydney 2012 is a a completely different window based on the Jetta's and others like Jack, Kennedy etc... They still had to rebuild even though they didn't hit rock bottom. In fact you could argue they fluked it against WC even though they made the GF the following year, and their only true window is starting now

As for Collingwood before they won the premiership when was their window?? They never had a window against Brisbane Lions. People who think they had a chance are dreaming, Port couldn't get to the GF on most occasions even though they should have in that era and the pies were never truely in the hunt until the year they challenged the Saints

 

[Glenno23]

Teams can surprise or hang around a bit longer than most expect, but I think the premiership window by and large is a pretty good description. Hawthorn, Collingwood, West Coast, Sydney and maybe the Clowns currently have a group of players that most think can win the premiership - they are in the the window. Gold Coast, GWS, Port, Melbourne don't have the players/experience/talent at the moment - they by definition arde not in the window.

Who are these "Clowns" you speak of?

Surely you can call a team by their correct name on the MB? Save that other shit for the bay

I also agree the window is a thing of the past. Free agency put to bed any reason for a team to bottom out and rebuild thoroughly and recruiters are getting smarter with their picks. There's also a lot more mature age picks with ready to go bodies that don't need 2 years of gym work to be AFL ready

I also agree that there will always be teams that can win it and teams that can't win it. But its getting more and more even between the top 6-8 each year

 

[Illinois Nazi]

They could be a thing of the past for Essendon.

 

[StillWaiting5689]

We might not ever be able to predict the exact winner, but I'd bet my house at the start of the year I could pick the flag winner if given say 6 choices. Those would be teams in the premiership window.

Whilst I agree with the general concept of the premiership window there are always going to be surprises. Chances are you would be homeless after 2012 and probably 2007.

 

[greennick]

The term 'premiership window' is often used to describe teams who are at the stage of challenging for the flag and the length of time they have before the slide down the ladder, such is the cycle of football.

Sam Mitchell is one who believes that premiership windows are a thing of the past, citing Sydney as an example.

With free agency making it far easier for teams to plug holes in their lists, he may well be right.

Sydney have missed the finals a grand total of once since 2002, and don't look like missing the finals again anytime soon.

Do you agree that premiership windows are a thing of the past?

http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2013-02-11/we-need-to-improve-mitchell.workstation

Sydney doesn't seem to have one as they don't have the same equalisation measures as the rest of us. It is a lot easier for them to keep a playing list together with an extra $1m in the bank and have some left over to attract free agents.

Every other club still has them, they're just longer than they used to be.

 

[Tippett2Goal]

Premiership windows are caused by clubs. When they don't think they're a decent chance at a flag they load up with youth and via the draft. There's no need for it necessarily, a well run club can cycle youth into the team and phase out older players without hitting rock bottom.

The Issue with this is that if you are a bottom side with your current senior players, then slowly injecting youth isn't likely to improve you, because your current seniors are worse than other teams seniors. Whilst a team that has been performing strongly is perfectly situated to take the approach of cycling in new talent whilst retaining senipor players, because these seniors are better than others.

IE, it makes sense that successful teams will be older, because their older players are successful, if you can follow that logic.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Sydney regenerated their side through clever trading, good drafting and good player development while they turned over their playing list.

Yes, Sydney are the AFL's "Moneyball" team.

They didn't win the flag through having a team of superstars. They have some elite players but their shrewd recruiting of talent to fill a need at a reasonable price is a true work of art. I was bitter at losing the 2012 GF but when you look at the sorts of guys that Swans recruited to do specific jobs then you can only really take your hat off to them.

 

[The Casey Cat]

sides such as Geelong and St Kilda can kid themselves that they're still a chance but that times passed.

I'm fairly confident we are as good a chance of making top 4 as anyone (besides maybe the Swans and Hawks who are perhaps just above the rest at present). But that is getting OT.

As for windows? They are a bunch of crap to me. If you have a very good side, some luck with injury and form at the right time you can win the flag. No matter how many 'media experts' think you are in the window or what time on the 'premiership clock' they think you're at (which is another pile of utter shit).

 

[greennick]

I'm fairly confident we are as good a chance of making top 4 as anyone (besides maybe the Swans and Hawks who are perhaps just above the rest at present). But that is getting OT.

As for windows? They are a bunch of crap to me. If you have a very good side, some luck with injury and form at the right time you can win the flag. No matter how many 'media experts' think you are in the window or what time on the 'premiership clock' they think you're at (which is another pile of utter shit).

So you think Gold Coast or the Bulldogs can win the flag?

 

[The Casey Cat]

So you think Gold Coast or the Bulldogs can win the flag?

Well no there are a few we know full well won't even make finals (i don't need to get into them). The rest are a chance even if only a very slim one.

 

[McCrann]

Increased professionalism and Free Agency will make cycles and that shorter. Sure, clubs will be out of contention for a season or two like ours, but I won't be surprised if in the near future, teams will rise and fall quicker, making extended "windows" and the like rarer.

I'll give it to you for your optimism, but I can't see Dogs making finals pre 2018, although probably challenging in 2017. Not saying Saints will be great, but I wouldn't be surprised if we snuck into Top 8 this year.

Who leaves the Dogs after 2013? Gia, Cross, Morris? More experience walking out the door. Boyd & Murphy gone by 2015? Team will be very young for sometime to come. Cooney, Minson, Griffin won't be around much longer after that? I'd be surprised if any of those 8 players I've named will ever play finals again. Hence, they will need to find more (young) replacements. You'd better hope you're kids standup! Good luck to you!!!

 

[E Shed]

Well no there are a few we know full well won't even make finals (i don't need to get into them). The rest are a chance even if only a very slim one.

So you could theoretically say those teams with no chance are out of the premiership window while those who are a slim chance are just outside the window while those who are a strong chance are right in the premiership window.
You know, if you were looking for an analogy to describe a situation like that.

 

[Menzel 2 Murphy]

only if you are an Essendon fan

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Sydney had a total of 4 players that played in both their 2005 and 2012 premierships.

Their lowest finish in that period was 12th in 2009, but you could argue that was their rebuilding year.

Another good example is Collingwood who have played finals for 7 straight years, and don't look like missing the finals again anytime soon.

Current Collingwood players who were on the list at the end of 2006:

Travis Cloke
Alan Didak
Ben Johnson
Nick Maxwell
Scott Pendlebury
Heath Shaw
Dane Swan
Dale Thomas
Harry O'Brien (rookie)
Alan Toovey (rookie)

That equates to an 80% turnover of the senior list without missing the finals.

So much for every team needing to 'bottom out' between drinks.

Sydney's list management isn't relevant to every club. The more clubs that adopt similar strategies the less effective their used car policy will be as the pool of cheap mature age players is limited.

Nor are clubs going to enjoy a similar spreads of talent, in similar age brackets at the right time to always avoid bottom 10 finishes.

Someone has to finish lower on the ladder and there can be obvious draft advantages in doing so. In the end equalisation will win out and clubs will fall down the ladder.

 

[Bollox]

The window theory had a crack in it the moment clubs started to realise how absolutely idiotic they had been with their "youth policies".
Was a time not so long ago when it seemed generating a young list was more important than being competitive for members and fans. Certainly became just as stupid in here as well.

To me it all ended about the time when OKeefe asked my mob to sniff around looking for a move back to Melb for the last 5-6 yrs of his career. The response to potentially picking up that class of player with instant benefits was nothing short of sad and pathetic...they are never ever easy to get for christsake and always cost a few bux more. Seemed like a lemming like mentality where it seemed it was better to be young than good.

Worst were the bottom dwellers...brainless lemmings with a defeatest attitude all just assuming their list was shit and pretending a 3-5yr period of royal shitness was somehow acceptable. Just have a look at the pathetic number of trades that were going through up till maybe 3-5 seasons ago. You want to play ultra conservative and not take a risk in any sport then you get nowhere.

Now our clubs are actually getting back to business and being more sensible. Free agency coming in wont help the window theory much either.

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

If you believe you are not in a 'premiership window' so to speak you may as well not turn up. Its a losers mentality. They said the Swans 'premiership window' was closed so we just smashed it.

So what youre saying is GWS and GCS are losing games (and not in premiership contention) simply because of a 'losers mentality' ??

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I'll give it to you for your optimism, but I can't see Dogs making finals pre 2018, although probably challenging in 2017. Not saying Saints will be great, but I wouldn't be surprised if we snuck into Top 8 this year.

Who leaves the Dogs after 2013? Gia, Cross, Morris? More experience walking out the door. Boyd & Murphy gone by 2015? Team will be very young for sometime to come. Cooney, Minson, Griffin won't be around much longer after that? I'd be surprised if any of those 8 players I've named will ever play finals again. Hence, they will need to find more (young) replacements. You'd better hope you're kids standup! Good luck to you!!!

Not sure if trolling or what.

Saints to make top 8 in 2013 but Dogs not to do so until 2018?
Ignoring the fact that we've had over 20 debutants over the last two years. In 2015 we'll challenge for a top 4 spot when you consider ~10 of those debutants coming good, ~ 8-10 existing players, ~2-4 draftees from 2012/2013/2014 becoming good.

 

[willba_victory]

Not sure if trolling or what.

Saints to make top 8 in 2013 but Dogs not to do so until 2018?
Ignoring the fact that we've had over 20 debutants over the last two years. In 2015 we'll challenge for a top 4 spot when you consider ~10 of those debutants coming good, ~ 8-10 existing players, ~2-4 draftees from 2012/2013/2014 becoming good.

hopefully you are just trolling threenewpadlocks. if so, then post in bay 13. Or maybe you just meant, "challenging for a top 4 spot in the draft."

 

[greennick]

Well no there are a few we know full well won't even make finals (i don't need to get into them). The rest are a chance even if only a very slim one.

I would say that is a perfect example of why there is a premiership window.

There are 4-5 teams that are right up there in there window.

Then there are another 4-5 teams that are outside chances at best.

Then there are 4-5 teams that could make finals, but are never going to win.

And 4-5 teams glued to the bottom of the ladder, that have almost no chance of making the 8.

Each group of teams (and I won't go in to which teams are in which category as it isn't the point of this thread) is at different stages of their premiership window. Sure it is possible to win from out of there, but it is highly unlikely.

 

[SM]

Of course premiership windows exist Sydney did have a total rebuild after the 06 grand final they just didn't bottom out but no season through 07-11 were they a contender or in a window. Right now there's 6 teams that could say they're in a premiership window, sides such as Geelong and St Kilda can kid themselves that they're still a chance but that times passed.

I would argue we were a contender in 2010 but injuries got in the way.

I agree that Premiership Windows do exist, some just shut theirs more firmly OF THEIR OWN DOING than others. The Swans for instance from 07-09 were not contending, and after 09 most Swans fans didn't see our next flag tilt being until 2013 at the earliest. But having a strong structure in place, always planning ahead more than the next season, blooding youngsters only when they're ready and have a role to fill, and always making Finals a priority, instills a winning, successful culture, and when the players hit that age bracket you're off and running again.

What I've always wondered is if all teams took this approach, how the season would look because, obviously, someone still has to finish last.

 

[baja]

So what youre saying is GWS and GCS are losing games (and not in premiership contention) simply because of a 'losers mentality' ??

No, my point was more about the mindset and having belief, its an amazing thing. My point was from a players perspective not the average punter that does the maths. If you don't have belief whats the point? I don't like the term 'premiership window' its crippling. If you told me before I ran out that I had no chance of winning today because I was not in a premiership window that would be a red rag to me. Id love to play in a team with all the players of the same mindset that window would start cracking for sure.

 

[Holy Rioli]

I don't really care as long as Hawthorn win . But in all honesty with free agents the bigger clubs when up have another avenue to exploit to find a way to stay up longer and avoid falling faster.