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I'll ask you as well then, which 2 players from Curtin, Pedlar, Taylor, Dowling, Berry and Jones are you confident play ahead of him in round 1? Don't just deflect with lazy condescensions. Name the players.
Curtin plays ahead of him for mine for round 1:

B Murray, Keane, Worrell, Max, Hinge, Nank, Laird
M ROB, Crouch, Soligo, Rankine, Dawson, Sholl, Cumming, Curtin
F ANB, Tex, Keays, Fog, TT, Rachele, Peatling

I can't see Murphy coming in as the sub, it would be a mid. So one of Berry or Dowling.

But if there is an injury to a forward, particularly if not a key forward, Murphy is probably straight in for round 1.

But I'm also expecting Draper to get a run fairly early on, which pushes Murphy down a peg.
 
The players he's competing with for 2 spots are Curtin, Dowling, Taylor, Pedlar, Jones and Berry. At this stage I'm not including Draper as I don't think his path is set for round 1. Which 2 are you highly confident play ahead of him in round 1?
You could throw a blanket but..

Curtin plays unless he's injured. Can't see him being played in the SANFL again this year.

Dowling provides dynamism with his running and seems to find the pill. A contributor.

IMO
 
Curtin plays ahead of him for mine for round 1:

B Murray, Keane, Worrell, Max, Hinge, Nank, Laird
M ROB, Crouch, Soligo, Rankine, Dawson, Sholl, Cumming, Curtin
F ANB, Tex, Keays, Fog, TT, Rachele, Peatling

I can't see Murphy coming in as the sub, it would be a mid. So one of Berry or Dowling.

But if there is an injury to a forward, particularly if not a key forward, Murphy is probably straight in for round 1.

But I'm also expecting Draper to get a run fairly early on, which pushes Murphy down a peg.
You have spots for four small to mid forwards.

Alex Neal Bullen
Josh Rachele
Ben Keays
Izak Rankine
Dan Curtin
Luke Pedlar
Chayce Jones
Brayden Cook
Zac Taylor
Charlie Edwards
Billy Dowling

At least half of them I'd have before Murphy and maybe more.
 

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You have spots for four small to mid forwards.

Alex Neal Bullen
Josh Rachele
Ben Keays
Izak Rankine
Dan Curtin
Luke Pedlar
Chayce Jones
Brayden Cook
Zac Taylor
Charlie Edwards
Billy Dowling

At least half of them I'd have before Murphy and maybe more.
All of them ahead of Murphy, if not for performance reasons, then for development reasons.
 
ANB is THE direct replacement, with him in the side there is no place for Murphy.

Its not that difficult to see at all

That's not how it works though, they will select what they think is their best group to generate score and provide cover in the midfield.

7 defenders - starting 6 and bench rotation
2 walk up wings - Sholl & Hinge/Cumming (1 defence/1 wing)
1 Ruck

3 Best mids - Dawson, Rankine & Soligo
6 Best forwards - Tex, Fog, TT, Keays, Rachele, ANB

= 19 players

2 walk up bench mids - Peatling & Crouch

= 21 players

Players that are in the discussion are Curtin, Pedlar, Draper Jones, Dowling, Taylor, Berry & Murphy, guys like Schoey and yet-to-debut would be long shots for early rounds. As I've mentioned previously, my gut feel is that there's a round a few weeks in that Draper is pencilled in for. I don't think he's in the mix for round 1.

The reality is that it doesn't matter that ANB is a better exponent of your 'Murphy role'. What matters is who do the selectors think improves the side the most when added to the unarguable first 21. Each of the above will be considered, whether you think ANB causes Murphy to be deleted off hand or not. Each has pro's and cons;

Curtin - potential future superstar but with Tex, TT & Fog up forward, could they think that's too tall? I'd play him anyway, but then I'm not staring down the barrel of a sacking if we don't hit the ground running.

Pedlar - still love this guy, but he was dropped last year and spent a lot of time in the 2s. After proving himself, has he lost that trust and will he have to do it again via the 2s.

Draper - again, just reckon he's being progressed to meet a later round for a debut.

Dowling - can't knock him at all, can only say that it wouldn't be a surprise if his very good 9 game debut season is forgotten over a preseason and they want to see him perform again in the 2s before earning a recall.

Jones - what a rollercoaster, destroyed mentally, came back via backline roles and progressed to a wing to have a really promising 2023. I don't think he was terrible last year, but was definitely a level below his 2023. He provides flexibility in terms of wing/defensive rotations, but not sure he's in the discussion if it's a forward/mid rotation role that is being filled. That said, of our 6 first choice forwards, half of them will likely rotate through the midfield at varying stages during the season.

Berry - spent the first half of the season heavily involved in sub events. Was ok the last half, but we've got a lot of midfield options and I'm not sure his forward half work has him in this discussion. I think he's more depth for a midfielder injury than he is for our first round 23.

Taylor - talent no doubt and a very promising 9 game debut season. Was sub 4 times though and lack of fitness progression (solely based on Bigman reports) seems to be against him being a regular first choice 22.

Murphy - 6th in 2023 b&f, not dropped last year, but was sub once. Leadership group member and brings 100+ games experience. Elite at hustle and keeping shape. Just a total waste of space on the football field, but outside of injury returns and a couple of games, has basically been selected every game he's been available for over the last 4 years. It's inexplicable.
 
Curtin plays ahead of him for mine for round 1:

B Murray, Keane, Worrell, Max, Hinge, Nank, Laird
M ROB, Crouch, Soligo, Rankine, Dawson, Sholl, Cumming, Curtin
F ANB, Tex, Keays, Fog, TT, Rachele, Peatling

I can't see Murphy coming in as the sub, it would be a mid. So one of Berry or Dowling.

But if there is an injury to a forward, particularly if not a key forward, Murphy is probably straight in for round 1.

But I'm also expecting Draper to get a run fairly early on, which pushes Murphy down a peg.

Agree with that first choice 22, but happy for separate arguments over Keane v Butts and Nank v Milera. I'm not convinced on Berry as sub as I think he's transitioned to near enough to pure mid. I'm not going to be surprised if Murphy doesn't make it, but nor will I be surprised if he's sub. I'll be annoyed, but not surprised. I am amused at posters who believe it's as simple as 'if ANB plays, Murphy can't because there's only 1 Murphy role and ANB is better at it'.
 
You could throw a blanket but..

Curtin plays unless he's injured. Can't see him being played in the SANFL again this year.

Dowling provides dynamism with his running and seems to find the pill. A contributor.

IMO

That'd be my preference too. And it's a shame for Dowling to be sub because he went really well last year. One rider to tack on though, a fully fit and in form Pedlar should be a walk up start, but just reckon he'll be having to re-prove himself early in the season if injuries don't have him in the 22 to start with.
 
You have spots for four small to mid forwards.

Alex Neal Bullen
Josh Rachele
Ben Keays
Izak Rankine
Dan Curtin
Luke Pedlar
Chayce Jones
Brayden Cook
Zac Taylor
Charlie Edwards
Billy Dowling

At least half of them I'd have before Murphy and maybe more.

So Curtin doesn't make your round 1 22 if a full list is available?
 
All of them ahead of Murphy, if not for performance reasons, then for development reasons.

Only issue is that with jobs on the line nobody is thinking development as we select our team for round 1. So ignore development and focus on winning only that 1 game of football and then put your Matthew Nicks selection hat on and assess the options.
 
Only issue is that with jobs on the line nobody is thinking development as we select our team for round 1. So ignore development and focus on winning only that 1 game of football and then put your Matthew Nicks selection hat on and assess the options.
That's why he's selfishly focusing on getting the best players out there. The time for favourites who don't deliver is over.
 
That'd be my preference too. And it's a shame for Dowling to be sub because he went really well last year. One rider to tack on though, a fully fit and in form Pedlar should be a walk up start, but just reckon he'll be having to re-prove himself early in the season if injuries don't have him in the 22 to start with.
Yep. But I don't think it's Dowling vs Pedlar.
Possibly more Dowling vs Sholl or Jones.
Pedlar vs Rachelle or Keays. Small forward burst players.

I'm sticking with Dowling for now until Draper comes in as his running will be important in a tallish forward line. Has kicked goals too. I see him like our homegrown younger ANB. Or a silkier Keays. He'll come on with time... to my eye.
 

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