AFL 2025 - AFL ROUND 3

[balmainforever]

 

[NYRB]

Early pick for tomorrow:

0.5u stake

Adelaide v North Melbourne
Thilthorpe, Larkey, Fogarty, Rankine, Zurhaar, Darling to combine for 14+ Goals @ $34

 

[HTPunter]

Odds have drifted a lot since I got on these 2

Currently
Wilson 5.40 & 17
Collard 6 & 21
On SB for 2 & 3 respectively

Don’t quite get why they’ve drifted - Collard kicked 2 v Geelong, Wilson 0.2 v Adelaide and plays an attacking role whilst not being a forward, and Richmond are garbage.

St Kilda laddered 25, 40, 60, 80+

Sinclair 2/3 @ 12/67. Should get bulk midfield minutes and hopefully they capitalise on the opportunity to put up a decent score

St Kilda ladder & Collard make for a good day - Collard 2.2 and one marked on the line hurt

 

[gillon]

Early pick for tomorrow:

0.5u stake

Adelaide v North Melbourne
Thilthorpe, Larkey, Fogarty, Rankine, Zurhaar, Darling to combine for 14+ Goals @ $34

Where is this?

 

[NYRB]

Where is this?

TAB Touch WA

 

[NYRB]

Ive gone for the juice, as its a fairly big jump up in odds for those set of 6 players from 12+ Goals to 14+ Goals. eg



Happy to take the $34, and I dont think its worth taking the ladder just purely base on the 'juice' available.

 

[NYRB]

Ive to top up a bit more:

5u now at odds of $29. Seeing the odds have come in a bit.

All listed players to combine for 14+ Goals

Yes
R Thilthorpe,D Fogarty,I Rankine,N Larkey,C Zurhaar,J Darling


Havent had the chance to look at lineups but if we get a shoot out which I think what this game will be why not? Whats fair odds Im not sure. Id probably give it a miss at anything less than odds < $18. Just think its an Adelaide day game, beautiful weather, and both teams this season have shown a willing to go all out attack.

Can see it as the type of game where Fogarty gets 4, Thilthorpe 3, Rankine 2, Larkey 4, Zurhaar 2, Darling 2

The more the merrier I say.

 

[Rank]

Thilthorpe 4 @7 SB

Thilthorpe 3
Fredrick 2 @8.23 SB Boosted

 

[the_big_sav]

Ive gone for the juice, as its a fairly big jump up in odds for those set of 6 players from 12+ Goals to 14+ Goals. eg

View attachment 2266105

Happy to take the $34, and I dont think its worth taking the ladder just purely base on the 'juice' available.

 

[the_big_sav]

I think we are all hoping for a shoot out today at Adelaide oval

 

[NYRB]

I think we are all hoping for a shoot out today at Adelaide oval

TAB Touch have now pulled of the 14+ Goals combo, for some odd reason. Think that may be a good sign from the betting gods. (The power and influence of BigFooty )



That $4.90 is still there though for the 6 combined goalscorers listed above.

 

[NYRB]

3 Leg Pick Em Adelaide v North Melbourne

Darcy Fogarty Over 2 Goals
Charlie Comben Over 5.5 Marks
Daniel Curtin Under 1 Goal
Odds: $6.50 (1u)

Expecting plenty of goals in Adelaide and the Roos , but someone has to miss out today. I think it will be Dan Curtin.

• Comben to clear this marks line. TAB have him under evens for 6+ Marks. Expecting alot of ball in that Crows forward line. Against Top 8 sides last season, he got 52 marks from 9 games. An average of 5.77 marks a game. Comben coming off his best game of his career last week.
• Dan Curtin hasnt kicked more than 2+ more than once his career.
• Fogarty to get to 2 and could easily see a bag if his mind is set today.

And a 0.5u stake Fogarty Over 2 Goals, Comben Over 5.5 marks, Curtin Under 1 Goal, Nick Larkey Over 2 Goals. Odds: $12.84.

Dont think this is a week I will be opposing Larkey goals. Adelaides defence is OK but as Bombers showed last week, they can be open on the counter. Larkey has 14 goals from 5 games at the Adelaide Oval. There is a good chance he lands on 2 or 3 goals today.

 

[Hellboy101]

Fog, Thilthorpe and Larkey 2+
Tex, Rankine, Rachele, Zurhaar and Curtis AGS @18 TABtouch.

 

[Ouchkabibbles]

Ive to top up a bit more:

5u now at odds of $29. Seeing the odds have come in a bit.

All listed players to combine for 14+ Goals

Yes
R Thilthorpe,D Fogarty,I Rankine,N Larkey,C Zurhaar,J Darling


Havent had the chance to look at lineups but if we get a shoot out which I think what this game will be why not? Whats fair odds Im not sure. Id probably give it a miss at anything less than odds < $18. Just think its an Adelaide day game, beautiful weather, and both teams this season have shown a willing to go all out attack.

Can see it as the type of game where Fogarty gets 4, Thilthorpe 3, Rankine 2, Larkey 4, Zurhaar 2, Darling 2

The more the merrier I say.

FWIW this combo “Can see it as the type of game where Fogarty gets 4, Thilthorpe 3, Rankine 2, Larkey 4, Zurhaar 2, Darling 2” pays 801 on Sportsbet - I’m on it for 0.5 a unit for giggles

 

[Ouchkabibbles]

Fog, Thilthorpe and Larkey 2+
Tex, Rankine, Rachele, Zurhaar and Curtis AGS @18 TABtouch.

I like these types of combos for this game. Did the same for st kilda last night

Edit - have taken a bunch to kick 2,3,4 and then combo’d a few together. Too many individual bets to list here, but I did well out of last night (+60 units from a multi) and rolling some of that profit into today. Pray for a shootout

 

[Play On Advantage]

With Adelaide having Nick Murray out (I rate him as the best stopper in the team) and replacing him with Borlase I see as a fair downgrade.

It means Larkey will get one of Keane or Borlase and I like that match up for Larkey.

3/4/5/6 @ 2.90/6.50/14/34

 

[NYRB]

West Coast v Freo

Harley Reid AGS
Harley Reid 20+ Disposals
Freo to win by 1-39 pts

Odds: $8.50 Bet Refund if 1 leg fails

Expecting a bit of a bounceback game from Harley after he got media criticism of giving the bird to the Brisbane fans last week. To be fair, I dont think Harley was just being a 19 year old. Last year he also played pretty good games in both Western Derbies.

Freo should be too good here but I think like last week West Coast Eagles can keep this close with more support for the Eagles here, with it being an Eagle home crowd.


And this bet wouldn't have loss in 2024 Western Derbies games (McGovern only played the 1 derby last season):

Dabble Pick Em:

Serong Over 4.5 Tackles
Jeremy McGovern Over 5.5 Marks
Jayden Hunt Over 3 Marks
Odds: $6.50 (1u)

• McGovern has cleared this line in 11 of the past 12 Western Derbies. Now with no Barrass in the backline, he is the chief leader running the defence. Expect the young ones to go to him and he always has the capability for intercept marks.
• Serong loves the Western Derby has won the Medal a few times.
• Happy to take Hunt on this line at a lowish line. Think there will be a phase in the game where Eagles look to chip the ball around a bit.

 

[fpm84]

Thilthorpe 3+
Rachele 3+
Larkey 2+
Curtis 2+
Keays AGS
Darling AGS
@81.33 PB

 

[NYRB]

And one more bet for Eagles v Freo

Harley Reid 2+ Goals at $8.00 (1u)

Playable anything above $7.50+ in my book. Seeing some 6.00s out there.

Think when his career winds down, he will get 2+ Goals, more often than 1 in 8 times.

 

[NYRB]

Adel v North SGM:

Fogarty 3+ Goals
Larkey 3+ Goals
Rachele 2+ Goals
LDU 1+ Goal
North Melbourne +44.5 Handicap

Odds: $56 at TAB Touch WA (0.375u)

Same bet at Sportsbet pays $31.50.

 

[Areyoufireal]

Fog 2 Filthy 2 Larkey 3
Ryan 2 Bolton 2 Tracey 3
@ 97 PB

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Is Shai Bolton any chance of kicking a bag today? Has he been playing around goal?

 

[NYRB]

Bit of an insurance bet, in case the goals don't come as expected:

0.75u Adelaide v Roos

181-190 points
LDU AGS
Tex Walker AGS in 1st Half

Odds: $20

Tex Walker is the one I want to avoid for goals today. But if he were to score a goal, its more likely to be in the 1st half then 2nd.

 

[freo_leo29]

Is Shai Bolton any chance of kicking a bag today? Has he been playing around goal?

He's a bit off fitness wise (injury interrupted) but loved playing the Eagles at Richmond, so maybe he will

He basically played full time forward last week, only taking centre bounces and then instantly rotating with Brayshaw back into the forward line (bray started HFF and Bolton moved back forward after the initial clearance)

 

[pacemaker]

West Coast v Freo

Harley Reid AGS
Harley Reid 20+ Disposals
Freo to win by 1-39 pts

Odds: $8.50

Did similar last night except
+25.5 WCE
Reid 15+
Reid AGS
$6.25

All the best

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Bored so back for a crack

2-5 Thilhorpe
3-5 Fog
2-4 Curtis
Dawson 2
Rachele 3-5

Just hoping it’s a goal fest

Just need to use these Bonus bets after yesterday