List Mgmt. 2024 Trade Thread - No.1

[True Believer]

Yes we understand the logic. Works well if we get Band 1, but without Band 1 it is a negative. 1/ as Battle then goes for well unders most likely and 2/ the compo pick we then get slides to where the chance of gaining a young mid who can become a star greatly lessens.


The die is now cast, so we now just have to sit back and hope that the AFL does not shaft us.



You can see why the Club is taking the risk though, for if we cannot land some genuinely good mids, the Saints are doomed to not ever become a Top 4 team anyway.

History tells us that the chance of us actually trading in a true gun mid, or gaining one as a FA, is remote. Any gun player will have multiple suitors, and such players will rarely choose us, and extra $$ will not change that. (Hill chose us in part as his partner wanted to live bayside Melbourne again. Hamill and GTrain chose us as Blight was said to be joining us). We might gain another Crouch level player, but that will not be enough to take is to the Promised Land.

The chance of landing not just one, but two, potentially good mids in this years draft is an opportunity that we simply have to take.

I'm sorry, but on what basis is Battle leaving for "well unders, most likely"? You just flat out made that up!!

 

[stavro#4]

I don't think he said it weakened us, he said it didn't make us stronger.

Jack Billings: "In exchange for Billings, the Saints receive a future third-round pick from Melbourne." Then during the 2023 draft, we traded that future pick back to the Dees for pick 42 in the "present" draft (see below).

Here's the more complicated Nick Coffield trade:

St Kilda gives:

• Nick Coffield
• Pick No. 35 (to Essendon)
• Pick No. 56 (to Western Bulldogs)
• Future fourth-round selection (from Fremantle, to Carlton)

St Kilda receives:

• Paddy Dow
• Pick No. 40 (via Western Bulldogs)
• Future third-round selection (via Carlton)

Then during the 2023 draft, we traded that 40, plus the billings pick above (42), to GCS for pick 27, and also traded the future pick from Carlton for pick 50 in the "present" draft.

OVERALL
OUT
Coffield
Billings
Billings's salary
Pick 35 2023ND - (Luamon Lual?)
Pick 42 2023ND - (Not sure, eaten up by the academy selections?)
Pick 56 2023ND - (Archie Roberts?)
4RDP 2024ND

IN
Dow
Pick 27 2023ND - Angus Hastie
Pick 50 2023ND - Hugo Garcia

TL;DR, It did make us stronger IMO, but who knows until those younger players develop. Does the team really need Billings or Coffield right now? I'd rather have Dow and Garcia, and Hastie has a lot of promise too.

So we traded out 2 players who played less then 5 games combined for us last season and we are going to match that this week in Dows 5th game + 10 combined games out of Haste and Garcia.

How have we not currently improved?

 

[True Believer]

Also meant to be staying competitive while building up the youth quota. At the moment we are uncompetitive and making ourselves weaker. You can see us bottoming out to save the president from the mistake of taking Ross Lyon.

I hope they pull the plug on Lyon and Sos before they take us down the toilet. We were meant to be on track challenging for a flag in 2025. Right now we are more likely to be bottom 4 again with a few of the sides that were down likely to jump and sit above us unless we get a huge move on.

We sound like we are losing Battle and want to move on Howard. So defence will be really poor and that pretty much means every line in the side will be below average. I reckon we could easily finish last next year if we have a couple of injuries and kids don't develop as we'd hoped.

I like some of contributions at times, but geez you can post some shit at times......

Uncompetitive - We have lost what, 5 games by under 10 points.......uncompetitive...

 

[Coconut_twirl]

We have to draft a sandy player too. The cupboard looks pretty sparse there from what I’ve seen..

They might be regretting that deal already. The last thing you need is to be regularly drafting a list clogger if there is no standout.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

what?

Billings looks absolutely horrid - Melbourne supporters cannot stand him.

Coffield again broke down.

How exactly has it weakened us?

You know you don't have to play a player.
Billings not being in our list, has not strengthened us is what i said.

Otherwise it would be simple, we could just delist everyone who did something wrong, and we'd somehow magically be stronger.

 

[phantom13]

The battle equation is pretty simple.

Go up to whatever will trigger band 1. If he stays, great, if he doesn’t, we get good compo.

Everyone is over complicating this

 

[pluggeranddoc]

Also meant to be staying competitive while building up the youth quota. At the moment we are uncompetitive and making ourselves weaker. You can see us bottoming out to save the president from the mistake of taking Ross Lyon.

I hope they pull the plug on Lyon and Sos before they take us down the toilet. We were meant to be on track challenging for a flag in 2025. Right now we are more likely to be bottom 4 again with a few of the sides that were down likely to jump and sit above us unless we get a huge move on.

We sound like we are losing Battle and want to move on Howard. So defence will be really poor and that pretty much means every line in the side will be below average. I reckon we could easily finish last next year if we have a couple of injuries and kids don't develop as we'd hoped.

Hang on Gringo, you are one of the best posters on here.
BUT I'm sure you were all in on the second coming of the MESSIAH!
What's changed?

 

[phantom13]

I think we will. But how can I truly answer that without seeing the list.

Who’s to say we don’t have picks 4+5 and trade 5 for LDU?

Who’s to say battle doesn’t re-sign and then we land Stengle or Ben Ainsworth (meh)

Jfc.

We finished ****ing 6th last year, now we’re gonna be bottom 4 for 2 years.

What a joke

 

[SaintsSeptember]

They might be regretting that deal already.

They got a few recruits for Sandy, which is why they did it.
Not even sure who our current rookies are. Hayes? Stocker?

 

[FlyingSledghamer]

Sydney have Chad Warner, Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney and are so far clear of the comp atm

We have no mids seemingly close to that at the moment. Maybe Pou but he's still in the VFL

To win a premiership, we need at least 2 of those types of mids; Daicos, JDG, Pendles; Dangerfield, Selwood, Guthrie; Oliver, Petracca, Viney; Cotchin, Dusty; Shuey, Yeo.

We need to give ourselves the best chance at finding that, which is through the top end of the draft. This year's draft is literally all about its top end mids, why would we not go all in on it to give ourselves the best chance of setting this part of the ground up for the next decade?

Battle is a good player, and there may not be another player like him to replace him with his toughness, but there are replacements that will suffice in a premiership-winning team. When is a premiership ever won by a 3rd tall? Never. When is a premiership won by a midfielder/midfield? Almost every year

We have Arie and/or Keeler to develop into that 3rd tall role, while Cordy is a solid short term replacement. Could also target someone for cheap like Butts or one of the other Adelaide defenders. The point is, imo, it's easier to replace Battle than to have a chance at a genuine A-grade mid via draft especially since no one else on our list would arguably demand that much on the open market

I'm very confident we've already got a couple agrader mids coming through in Mattaes and Wilson. We add another top mid maybe 2 this year and we're well on our way. If Battle stays he's a quality defender which we need anyway. Why are teams willing to pay big $s. His next contract will be max value on the field.
Patience with King and the fwd line. Will be the last piece of the puzzle.

 

[stfan]

I'm sorry, but on what basis is Battle leaving for "well unders,

Well as I have stated "Works well if we get Band 1, but without Band 1 it is a negative.
...and this is based on where Band 2, or worse , compensation pick would slide to.

most likely"? Yo just flat out made that up!!

Well as it has not yet happened yet, then yes you got me, I made it up.

As you must have a time machine you obviously have popped forward in time and so can enlighten us. So do tell us what the facts from the future are?

Or are you like me just going to make it up too, for we can only speculate.

However IMO, if he does not go for Band 1 as I have already clearly stated in posts in this thread, he will go for well under what what he is worth to us for as I have already mentioned the FS/Academy matches and North's 2 extra end of Round 1 picks (since traded), are going to push whatever his Band 2 (or worse) FA Compo is backwards. So North compo picks are 2, there are a number of FS's likely before then. Suns evidently may have 3 more Academy players. Lions may have Marshall. Not sure what GWS have in the works.

Battle is just reaching his prime, is proven quality, is not yet 26 and by my valuation is worth to us more than whatever end of first round compensation ends up sliding to. If he stayed he would most likely play 100+ more games

So I am more than happy to go with: "Works well if we get Band 1, but without Band 1 it is a negative" and yes I made that up.

 

[gringo2011]

There wasn’t many mids in last year’s draft, so no.

Saints knocked it out of the park with Wilson at 18.

We did really well to get Wilson but this draft is still weaker than last year's.

 

[StFly]

Jfc.

We finished ****ing 6th last year, now we’re gonna be bottom 4 for 2 years.

What a joke

There's nothing to suggest that this isn't the aberration year.
Last year was depth tested early and a late gel as we got people back, this year is become a team and specialise, who is then to say next year won't be the result of "practice" this year to launch next? Track watchers are generally of opinion that what is trained is rather nice and it's under pressure that it falls apart, that is mental generally speaking, and that shifts daily really.

Sure, it looks iffy, but everyone can see where our issues are and it's forward of centre generally speaking, this draft is meant to have some mids to further assist with this endeavour and as a benefit we might lose a third tall defender type. More mids would then allow us to fill that gap and maybe gravitate to quality clearances ourselves where it might then not even matter that much.

 

[True Believer]

Well as I have stated "Works well if we get Band 1, but without Band 1 it is a negative.
...and this is based on where Band 2, or worse , compensation pick would slide to.




Well as it has not yet happened yet, then yes you got me, I made it up.

As you must have a time machine you obviously have popped forward in time and so can enlighten us. So do tell us what the facts from the future are?

Or are you like me just going to make it up too, for we can only speculate.

However IMO, if he does not go for Band 1 as I have already clearly stated in posts in this thread, he will go for well unders for as I have already mentioned the FS/Academy matches and North's 2 extra end of Round 1 picks (since traded), are going to push whatever his FA Compo is backwards. So North compo picks are 2, there are a number of FS's likely before then. Suns evidently may have 3 more Academy players. Lions may have Marshall. Not sure what GWS have in the works.

Battle is in his prime, is not yet 26 and by my valuation is worth to us more than whatever end of first round compensation ends up sliding too.

So I am more than happy to go with: "Works well if we get Band 1, but without Band 1 it is a negative"

Waffle!

The F/S and Academy picks make zero difference, except to the number associated with the draft position we get awarded. None of those F/S or Academy players are available to us, so there is a pool of players available to us, and it is irrelevant if an Academy player of F/S gets taken before our pick or not!

If we get pick 2, and 5 academy or F/S picks get taken before our pick 2 it becomes pick 7. But all the same non-academy and non-F/S players are still available to us, other than the player that was taken at pick 1..........

 

[True Believer]

Well as I have stated "Works well if we get Band 1, but without Band 1 it is a negative.
...and this is based on where Band 2, or worse , compensation pick would slide to.




Well as it has not yet happened yet, then yes you got me, I made it up.

As you must have a time machine you obviously have popped forward in time and so can enlighten us. So do tell us what the facts from the future are?

Or are you like me just going to make it up too, for we can only speculate.

However IMO, if he does not go for Band 1 as I have already clearly stated in posts in this thread, he will go for well under what what he is worth to us for as I have already mentioned the FS/Academy matches and North's 2 extra end of Round 1 picks (since traded), are going to push whatever his FA Compo is backwards. So North compo picks are 2, there are a number of FS's likely before then. Suns evidently may have 3 more Academy players. Lions may have Marshall. Not sure what GWS have in the works.

Battle is just reaching his prime, is proven quality, is not yet 26 and by my valuation is worth to us more than whatever end of first round compensation ends up sliding to. If he stayed he would most likely play 100+ more games

So I am more than happy to go with: "Works well if we get Band 1, but without Band 1 it is a negative" and yes I made that up.

For what it's worth, I happen to agree that if we get band 1, then we are at least equal, or ahead on losing a good player, but if it is band 2 then I think it is a negative.

 

[akaifu]

Surely Adelaide take Draper

Yes I expect that to happen too but maybe we can finish below them. Also talk of them wanting to trade their pick

 

[WhiskySaint]

Reading BF discussions for years this Battle discussion is the best I can remember. Generally thought provoking, and fleshing out the complexity of where we stand as a club.

 

[gringo2011]

Hang on Gringo, you are one of the best posters on here.
BUT I'm sure you were all in on the second coming of the MESSIAH!
What's changed?

His game style is absolutely abysmal. We are the worst side in AFL as a spectacle. I think the days of pure defence are outdated and I'm worried he's making list changes to go backwards to cover his arse by blaming the list.

I credit him for building a footy department and setting standards but if he keeps us going backwards we'll end up losing players and making us less attractive to players with potential to trade in.

I hope I'm wrong but so far we are going backwards from where Ratts had us. If he's not the way forward we need to act faster this time. I give him until mid next season to turn this around and then we need to cut him before the rot sets in.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Firstly, even if he held a treasure map to Atlantis and knew who killed JFK, no one would pay Dougal Howard enough for a Band One compensation pick. Josh is far more attractive internally and externally.

Secondly, it actually would be a lot easier for us to replace a 3rd Tall Defender than our tallest Key defender. Take a look at our efforts so far for evidence. After the masterful Zac Dawson, only Jake Carlisle has got close and we've burned a couple picks in our efforts to replace him, but we managed to miss all the good ones.

What are you dribbling about? Where's this band 1 compo for Doogs coming from? Why are you talking about replacing Wilkie?

 

[gringo2011]

There's nothing to suggest that this isn't the aberration year.
Last year was depth tested early and a late gel as we got people back, this year is become a team and specialise, who is then to say next year won't be the result of "practice" this year to launch next? Track watchers are generally of opinion that what is trained is rather nice and it's under pressure that it falls apart, that is mental generally speaking, and that shifts daily really.

Sure, it looks iffy, but everyone can see where our issues are and it's forward of centre generally speaking, this draft is meant to have some mids to further assist with this endeavour and as a benefit we might lose a third tall defender type. More mids would then allow us to fill that gap and maybe gravitate to quality clearances ourselves where it might then not even matter that much.

We had injuries and excuses but so do Collingwood. The issue for me is how ugly the football looks. I'm seriously uninspired to go to games at the moment. I've attended the least amount of games in a year in probably 20 years. Even wins are so excruciating that I end up frustrated watching us. I've been frustrated before but I actually don't like the club at the moment. I have ill will towards them.

Lyon promised that he'd make the fans proud of how we play. I have the opposite feeling.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

This is the same path we've been on since 2011. Pies cherry pick players who aren't high profile but fit a need. We sell players to fill holes then have to give up more to replace them with a down grade.

What’s your plan then?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[gringo2011]

What’s your plan then?


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Don't bottom out for a start.

 

[stfan]

Waffle!

The F/S and Academy picks make zero difference, except to the number associated with the draft position we get awarded.

Errr, that is exactly why band 2 FA compo for Battle will be unders. Battle's "effective" pick will be devalued. We will not be getting Pick 19 to select a player, but a pick much later than that.

Those with Academy or FS selections in the first round/early second round will trade out and use junk picks to pay for them. ie Picks after Band 2 Compo.

None of those F/S or Academy players are available to us, so there is a pool of players available to us, and it is irrelevant if an Academy player of F/S gets taken before our pick or not!

Err see above, it pushes our pick back if compensation is Band 2 or less. So is very relevant

.
If we get pick 2, and 5 academy or F/S picks get taken before our pick 2 it becomes pick 7. But all the same non-academy and non-F/S players are still available to us, other than the player that was taken at pick 1..........

WTF??

I am talking about if Battle fails to generate Band 1 Compensation.

Band 2 is end-of-first-round pick.

But Norths Compos make that pick 21.

Academy matching and FS matches will then push that pick 21 back many picks.


PS: I just checked the calendar as I thought it may be Groundhog Day.

 

[True Believer]

Don't bottom out for a start.

Ok, but we're gonna need more than that........

Based on that, I'm guessing you're coaching would be along the lines of

"Ok boys, go out there and footy really good! Like, the best you've ever footied !!"

 

[Miha]

I believe the commitment to recruit from Sandy is via the rookie list only, which is all bad I feel