List Mgmt. 2024 Draft Thread

[_Mike_]

FYI

Will add a 2024 NAB Draft & Trade tracker thread, stickied.

Tag me when we have a confirmed trade/draft and I will update the thread accordingly

 

[Charlie Bucket]

 

[Pugz89]

Yeah if we trade above 17, we need to make sure we keep 17 and 25. Surely there’s a club out there that is willing to take a future pick. Richmond is the only one that makes sense to me since they are in rebuilding period I’m sure they’d like more options in next years draft as well.

I wonder if they've been so aggressive this year, knowing that Tassie is coming in and compromised drafts in the coming years has forced their hand to cut deeper and try to regenerate quicker than usual?
If that is the case, there is no positive scenario for them - or any other club bottoming out over the next few years.

Fast track and you lose a lot of experience/leadership early in the rebuild and we've seen what effect that can have at clubs like North Melbourne, and if you don't cut deep, then you miss out on access to the best players in the draft anyway, due to expansion concessions.

One thing I find interesting about the whole Tassie thing is there hasn't been much mention of a 20th team, and surely that'd be on the radar within a few years of Tassie.

Other expansions clubs played their first seasons in West Coast 1987, Crows 1991, Fremantle 1995, Port 1997, Gold Coast 2011, and GWS 2012.

I can't imagine the AFL will want to go too long with an additional team and expenses, but no additional broadcast benefit of a 10th game per round.
If we use the past four expansions as a guide, if Tassie enter in 2028, i'd expect a 20th team in the AFL no later than 2030, and that adds an even longer period of draft concessions.

It is not out of the realms of likelihood that there is five years of drafting that will be significantly compromised by Tassie and the likely 20th team imo, starting as soon as 2026.

 

[King Harold]

Rookie me Central has Hamish Davis going right on where our first pick will land (22 after academies and F/S).

He does look quite impressive, only knock is his lack of explosive speed.

His kicking seems effective enough, but can’t say I love the way he kicks the ball ?

 

[goodcop badcop]

His kicking seems effective enough, but can’t say I love the way he kicks the ball ?

Agreed. I worry how his kicking will go under more pressure at the next level.

 

[goodcop badcop]

Next years pick will potentially be around early-mid teens, so trading out anything higher than a 3rd rounder with it to get 13 this year is terrible business.

You throw in 2nd rounders to get right up the top end. Not a pick in the teens that’s potentially the same as the one you’re giving up.

I'd rather we didn't do it for that as well, but it really can depend on where you rate the player on the night. If you rate the player top 10 and he fills a need, that trade isn't necessarily bad.

Hypothetical here, in the 2017 draft we rated Richards at pick 8 on our board from memory. If we didn't have pick 16 and we had the option of trading our future 1st pick plus 25 to pick up Richards at 16 (who we rated at 8), would you do it?

 

[DiamondDogs8]

It’d be nice to have control of our own picks next year.

Saying that, I wouldn’t mind trading up to grab a particular player as long as we don’t have to give up our first to do so.

 

[Ash1337]

I would see if Port would want to switch draft hands with a future 4th going their way.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

I wonder if we'd consider our F1 for 15 or 16 off GWS on the night if there are two players still there we really want (with our 17), or even Richmond's 18.

 

[dogwatch]

As a general principle I don't mind the idea of using a F1 pick to improve the draft position. In theory you can keep borrowing from the future for ever. You are essentially just using next year's first rounder this year. And you do it year after year.

However it comes unstuck when reality bites, eg if you need lots of points one year to match bids for NGAs and FSs, or if some of your stars retire or leave early with little or no compensation (eg concussion, injury, etc) and you desperately need to re-stock on talent. That's when you need to call on extra reserves which you suddenly realise aren't available. Otherwise you're stuck with a poor list and a poor draft hand. That can take years to recover from.

Just before each national draft most of us are like kids in a toy store at Christmas. We all want the nice shiny things being displayed in front of us. So hey, let's borrow from next year to have more toys this year!

It's not necessarily wrong to suggest it. But my question to those who want to do it is what are we potentially selling ourselves short on next year? Do we have linked juniors who might attract a high bid from other clubs? How will the new DVI and related bidding rules affect us if we do? What is next year's draft like for top end talent? How does it compare to this year's? Where do we expect to finish next year? That is, what sort of a pick will next year's F1 be - a top 8 pick? Or more like 12-20?

Unless we can get satisfactory answers to all those questions we are just spending our assets blindly.

Another valid reason to borrow from the future is if you think you are in the premiership window and this is the last piece of the jigsaw to push you up to near favouritism. Hawthorn may have done that this year in securing Barrass who is much closer to retirement than to the start of his career and is possibly an injury or retirement risk due to his chronic spine condition.

The problem with that approach is clubs (and of course their fans) can get hopelessly optimistic. We've seen clubs do this under the delusion that they are a premiership threat. That premiership window booster might only last you 1-2 years. And like a sugar hit it is followed by a sugar crash.

So can someone give me some detailed analysis of why we should use next year's F1 to get another top 20 pick this year? Just saying "oh this year's top end runs really deep" is not enough on its own. We need some 2025 analysis and maybe even 2026 analysis where I think we have some FSs like Jaxon Cooney and Levi West. We really should be planning now how we are going to manage our draft assets for the next two years, not just for 2024.

 

[doggiesin08]

Next years pick will potentially be around early-mid teens, so trading out anything higher than a 3rd rounder with it to get 13 this year is terrible business.

You throw in 2nd rounders to get right up the top end. Not a pick in the teens that’s potentially the same as the one you’re giving up.

I think teams justify it to themselves on the basis that a player they rate as top [5-6] is still on the board at pick [12-13] so parting with the F2 makes sense.

Edit: sorry just saw goodcop badcop said basically the same thing.

 

[adogsfan5]

My favs so far:

Sam Marshall
Tom Gross
Christian Moraes
Jesse Dattoli