Unofficial Preview 2020 Draft Discussion

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HAWKSBESTEVA said:
Yeah I find it pretty strange Carlton interviews Holland’s twice, they traded their only first round pick for saad, would be difficult to get into the top 5 I would have thought.
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It's not just about the draft. It's about intel.

You can always have 2 - 3 years plans.
 
Bumps"N"Grins said:
So the premise of you argument that you have put forward is that you rate some of the next season 18s as17 year olds ( not all due to Vic's and covid) more than basing your judgement on viewing all of the 17 year olds ( Vic's included) from last year.
Short of waiting and watching all the top age players next season this point of view seems askew to me.
See you are saying a limited view of this seasons 17s is better than a full view of last seasons 17s.
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I’m judging the 17 year olds this year against the level of last years under 17. The level we have seen from this years under 17 has been a step above what we from last years. The genuine A+ talent available next year is greater than this year. I don’t really rate this years draft. I see it more of a 2017 level than a 2018 or 2019 level.

The genuine level of a draft can normally be seen pretty much two years out so COVID doesn’t have much of an effect apart from which players might rise or fall.

Which is why next year will have a lot more certainty in picking. As well as a higher talent level all around.
 
Adelaide are not going to Draft Thilthorpe out of fear of the fans in the off chance he develops in to the best player in the Draft.

Heck i think most don't want him now and would be upset if they used 1 on him. If they take him 1 it is because they think he is the best fit.
 

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BJK#5 said:
Adelaide are not going to Draft Thilthorpe out of fear of the fans in the off chance he develops in to the best player in the Draft.

Heck i think most don't want him now and would be upset if they used 1 on him. If they take him 1 it is because they think he is the best fit.
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Off chance? He's in the mix for spot 1 based on merit.

If they can't split him or another draftee, being from SA is going to tip it into his favour.
 
MrPremiership said:
Off chance? He's in the mix for spot 1 based on merit.

If they can't split him or another draftee, being from SA is going to tip it into his favour.
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I don't disagree on that part, i don't think they will pick him out of fear of what the fans will think if the local kid ends up the best in the Draft and they pass on him.
 
chopflop said:
But not at all similar players. I liken him to Jack Martin overhead with his body positioning, smarts, 1v1 ability in marking contests and Harley Bennell up the ground, smooth moving but not super explosive, well-balanced, high skill level. He is more naturally dual-sided than both. One of the purest dual-sided players, you will see. Also does some uncanny things in terms of vision with handball i.e. over the head etc.

Martin and Bennell players were both Pick 2 if I am not mistaken, so similarly talented. That's the level I project him coming out to at AFL level. Not expecting a Judd/Dusty level generational talent. Just a very very good footballer with the ability to win games at AFL level off his own boot on occasion.

He is definitely something we lack - canny and polished forward players who can impact in multiple positions in multiple ways - overhead, on the deck, through the middle.
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When I read the description I thought the same. Sounds like Cyril but Hollands is definitely a different type of player.
 
HAWKSBESTEVA said:
Maybe I’m too optimistic but we won’t be top 5 bad if we remain a healthy list. The hub and draw really screwed us over this year. I still wouldn’t trade our first next year to a top 10 pick that will push out. Like I said the talent in the first round is a lot better then the talent in this draft after 5, also too risky with the compromised draft this is.
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You pretty much summed up why we shouldn’t entertain trading our 2021 1st when you said if we remain healthy. With our lack of quality depth we would likely be a serious Mitchell injury away from a guaranteed bottom 5 spot. I’m of the belief that whomever was to be involved in trading that pick should firmly have their head on the chopping block if we were to finish bottom 5.
 
BJK#5 said:
Adelaide are not going to Draft Thilthorpe out of fear of the fans in the off chance he develops in to the best player in the Draft.

Heck i think most don't want him now and would be upset if they used 1 on him. If they take him 1 it is because they think he is the best fit.
Click to expand...

Yeah I think the homegrown factor is way overblown also, the Crows will take who they think will be the best player in the draft.
 
HODGEYROAD said:
Yeah I think the homegrown factor is way overblown also, the Crows will take who they think will be the best player in the draft.
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Wasn't there a big battle between them and Port to get the SA kids in 2018?
 
MrPremiership said:
Wasn't there a big battle between them and Port to get the SA kids in 2018?
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Different sort of scenario, 3 of the top 5 kids in that draft were from SA.

With pick 1 I'm very confident they'll take who they believe will be the best player, it still might well be Thilthorpe. If it's 50-50 call it could sway them though, I'll pay that.
 
HawkInExile said:
Interesting point of view. What's driving this improvement for next year? Keep in mind that we have lost a lot of talent with recent retirements on top of Sicily's ACL. Just interested in hearing your thoughts
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it's a toughie but I think there were a heap of factors that lead to our under performance this season.
1) Hub life cooked us. Other teams fairing better isn't a reason to take away from the fact that our players didn't and anyone who continues to push this point is stunted lmao.
2) Our gameplan was thrown out once we went into hubs and we went back to a defensively minded strategy. Didn't work, I expect the club to fix this
3) Had the worst travel schedule/ground influence of any team
4) we brought in a fair bit of talent and didn't really have a settled lineup.

For next season:
1) Most likely no hub life. Also most likely we will be able to play on our home deck
2) Adapted gameplan. We saw glimpses of stuff that worked. We'll do more of that
3) More settled lineup (with a few new additions to our standard 22)
4) More experience/continuity for younger players.
5) our list manipulation means that whilst we've lost a ton of experience, we have managed to keep leadership players in each section of the ground and still have a large quantity of high IQ footy ball players.
6) our midfield will look significantly stronger next season, and our two bulls will have a lot more experience with each other- I believe we will find the right mix. Phillips on one wing, Scully/Day on the other means our wings become real weapons again.

Concerns:
1) we might continue to bomb it into the f50 without enough sense
2) midfield might not gel as well as I'm expecting
3) injuries- I see this being the only real thing that will cause us strife next season
4) defense without Frawley might struggle a while.
5) Clarko blooding players too late. This is contentious I know, but I think if some of our old guard in Shiels/Ceglar/Burgers underperform early we need to switch them out for the players the coaching staff are expecting to be long term replacers for them.

Draft additions:
1) The more I think on it, the more I expect that if Hollands is gone by pick four, we will trade into two of essendons picks or two/three of GWS's. Logic being we have a"prime-aged KPF" in Patton. We have an up and coming KPF in ML and we have what we're being told will be a gem in Jeka. Unless somehow DGB is available at our pick, still in which case disregard everything. Thilthorp is a promising freak but I think our list has his role covered (unless we draft him as more of a ruck), Phillips is also a freak but next years strong midfield draft depth/no real urgency for another inside mid makes me think we mightn't go down his path (though I would love him).

2) Drafting ready made footballers. I believe with pick 4 and 24 we will be getting two players that will come in early and hold their positions. I believe the same if we were to end up with 7&8 or 10 & 15 or what have you. Plus Downie will come on and will be a booming addition to us.


By no means do I think we will be a finals team, but I think we won't be as horrid as the media is painting us to be.
 

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rei154 said:
TD if Hollands isn't available at our pick, can you see us splitting our first to grab Perkins +Cox/Reid?
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With Essendon? Still doesn't guarantee GC don't take Perkins at 5.
We're also assuming Dons will take Thilthorpe.

A lot of unknowns. And I don't like unknowns when it comes to Dodoro.
 
TylerDurden said:
With Essendon? Still doesn't guarantee GC don't take Perkins at 5.
We're also assuming Dons will take Thilthorpe.

A lot of unknowns. And I don't like unknowns when it comes to Dodoro.
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My thoughts play it out like this were we to make the swap:
Essendon- Thillthorp
GCS- Phillips (Anderson/Rowell connection)
Hawks: Perkins etc etc.
All conjecture though.
 
HODGEYROAD said:
Yeah I think the homegrown factor is way overblown also, the Crows will take who they think will be the best player in the draft.
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The crows have been absolutely burnt in the past by the go home factor. If you don't think that has had an effect throughout the club let me give you a hint from contacts of mine close to the club.

It does.
 
H00t said:
I’m judging the 17 year olds this year against the level of last years under 17. The level we have seen from this years under 17 has been a step above what we from last years. The genuine A+ talent available next year is greater than this year. I don’t really rate this years draft. I see it more of a 2017 level than a 2018 or 2019 level.

The genuine level of a draft can normally be seen pretty much two years out so COVID doesn’t have much of an effect apart from which players might rise or fall.

Which is why next year will have a lot more certainty in picking. As well as a higher talent level all around.
Click to expand...
When have this years Vic under 17’s played?
 
rei154 said:
it's a toughie but I think there were a heap of factors that lead to our under performance this season.
1) Hub life cooked us. Other teams fairing better isn't a reason to take away from the fact that our players didn't and anyone who continues to push this point is stunted lmao.
2) Our gameplan was thrown out once we went into hubs and we went back to a defensively minded strategy. Didn't work, I expect the club to fix this
3) Had the worst travel schedule/ground influence of any team
4) we brought in a fair bit of talent and didn't really have a settled lineup.

For next season:
1) Most likely no hub life. Also most likely we will be able to play on our home deck
2) Adapted gameplan. We saw glimpses of stuff that worked. We'll do more of that
3) More settled lineup (with a few new additions to our standard 22)
4) More experience/continuity for younger players.
5) our list manipulation means that whilst we've lost a ton of experience, we have managed to keep leadership players in each section of the ground and still have a large quantity of high IQ footy ball players.
6) our midfield will look significantly stronger next season, and our two bulls will have a lot more experience with each other- I believe we will find the right mix. Phillips on one wing, Scully/Day on the other means our wings become real weapons again.

Concerns:
1) we might continue to bomb it into the f50 without enough sense
2) midfield might not gel as well as I'm expecting
3) injuries- I see this being the only real thing that will cause us strife next season
4) defense without Frawley might struggle a while.
5) Clarko blooding players too late. This is contentious I know, but I think if some of our old guard in Shiels/Ceglar/Burgers underperform early we need to switch them out for the players the coaching staff are expecting to be long term replacers for them.

Draft additions:
1) The more I think on it, the more I expect that if Hollands is gone by pick four, we will trade into two of essendons picks or two/three of GWS's. Logic being we have a"prime-aged KPF" in Patton. We have an up and coming KPF in ML and we have what we're being told will be a gem in Jeka. Unless somehow DGB is available at our pick, still in which case disregard everything. Thilthorp is a promising freak but I think our list has his role covered (unless we draft him as more of a ruck), Phillips is also a freak but next years strong midfield draft depth/no real urgency for another inside mid makes me think we mightn't go down his path (though I would love him).

2) Drafting ready made footballers. I believe with pick 4 and 24 we will be getting two players that will come in early and hold their positions. I believe the same if we were to end up with 7&8 or 10 & 15 or what have you. Plus Downie will come on and will be a booming addition to us.


By no means do I think we will be a finals team, but I think we won't be as horrid as the media is painting us to be.
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Great work and thanks for putting all the time and effort into your post, much appreciated. Some interesting thoughts and analysis.

The only thing that I have an issue with is your opinion on how hub life affected us more than other teams. Sure it was tough and not ideal, but I saw it as a challenge and an opportunity for us to get better as a club. We can agree to disagree on that point though and that's cool.

Lets all hope season 2021 is better for everyone and life returns to normal.
 
TylerDurden said:
We've interviewed Perkins 3 times.
More than any other club.
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How many times did we interview Will Day last year?
 
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