List Mgmt. 2020 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

[Punts]

My feeling is that if Mills, Hayward and Florent were as good as you say that we would see flashes more often.

Florent been very a disappointing pick up imo and tracking as c grader , b at best.

Hayward Rohan like atm

 

[Blacky]

Or more improvement since their rookie seasons

 

[Tesla Tenet]

If Hickey comes at a low price and is fit for 3 years he is worth it.



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What is the 'low cost' and why would he come for a 'low wage'.

We would have to pay much more then most of us would think or to reach the 95% floor or just under the 100% ceiling.

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[Superstar swan]

Still cannot fathom why we would consider hickey as an option. Better off recruiting a young untried ruck if Wer going down that path.

Taylor,brand, gray, hickey would have to be the worst recruitment period of any club in recent memory. We are a bottom 4 team and not one of those 4 our best 22 players.

It should be nearly impossible for a bottom 4 team to bring in 4 senior players who are not walk up starts, but we managed to do it

 

[Bonz]

No I’m asking what people think is realistic given we supposedly have such a good group of youngsters who love playing for each other and the coach.

Especially when we regressed this year.

Of course we regressed this year.

- We lost McVeigh, Jack, Grundy and Smith to retirement.
- Had a gigantic injury list for most of the season, in particular to our talls, Franklin, Heeney, Kennedy, Naismith, Rampe, Sinclair and Hewitt all missed significant portions of the season.

Personally I think we should start pushing for the 8 in 2022 and would expect to be a lock in the 8 in 2023.

You never know though, if we have a fit list and things line up next season would could potentially make the 8.

 

[Bonz]

My feeling is that if Mills, Hayward and Florent were as good as you say that we would see flashes more often.

Wait, what else would you want from Mills as a defender? Regularly wins his one on ones, is great at interception and has above average disposal on the rebound.

Agree on Hayward, but he was used on a defensive forward later in the season to good effect.

Florent is developing at a solid rate, not sure if he will ever be A-Grade but every team has a few solid B-graders and he can easily be one of them.

 

[Blacky]

Wait, what else would you want from Mills as a defender? Regularly wins his one on ones, is great at interception and has above average disposal on the rebound.

Agree on Hayward, but he was used on a defensive forward later in the season to good effect.

Florent is developing at a solid rate, not sure if he will ever be A-Grade but every team has a few solid B-graders and he can easily be one of them.

No team would trade a top pick for mills is my measuring stick. He is a fine defender but above average disposal and sub 20 touches is disappointing for a pick 3.

We drafted him as a midfielder supposedly so either he was never good enough to be a mid or his development was mismanaged

 

[Bonz]

No team would trade a top pick for mills is my measuring stick. He is a fine defender but above average disposal and sub 20 touches is disappointing for a pick 3.

We drafted him as a midfielder supposedly so either he was never good enough to be a mid or his development was mismanaged

If we were to trade Mills we would comfortably get a top 10 pick in return. He would walk into any team on the competition. Carlton are going to trade pick 7 for Saad... Who is neither as good or as young as Mills.

If we had a weaker midfield when he first started playing it's highly likely he would have developed into a mid, but we had a need to play him in defence and luckily for us he has shown the potential to be one of the best defenders in the competition.

I honestly believe he would still be an above average player in the midfield, but I wouldn't want to move him from defence.

 

[Caj]

Why not?

28 games in 7 seasons

coming off a knee reco

it took him 2 years to come back from the last one

 

[Blacky]

If we were to trade Mills we would comfortably get a top 10 pick in return. He would walk into any team on the competition. Carlton are going to trade pick 7 for Saad... Who is neither as good or as young as Mills.

If we had a weaker midfield when he first started playing it's highly likely he would have developed into a mid, but we had a need to play him in defence and luckily for us he has shown the potential to be one of the best defenders in the competition.

I honestly believe he would still be an above average player in the midfield, but I wouldn't want to move him from defence.

Ok. I disagree with most of that so agree to disagree then.

 

[Ehswan]

It's interesting reading all the different takes on some of our young players. It got me questioning some of my opinions on some of them as I believe they are tracking well although a few hiccups so I started comparing stats with some players from opposition teams.
Without bringing everyone of them up and if they are like for like. The stats on a lot of small/medium forwards are not much different or better than Hayward bar the elite. Likewise with Florent. I agree with others that they will both be solid b graders and who knows maybe more. Mills and Heeney are very solid good players who are still on the rise i think.
I always think back to past players as I have mentioned in previous posts of slow trajectories Brett Kirk

Brett Kirk

Age

48

Ht

184cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.5

5star

K

8.9

3star

HB

9.6

5star

M

2.7

3star

T

5.3

5star

CL

2.4

4star

No current season stats available

D

16.8

4star

K

13.0

5star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.2

4star

, Troy Luff, Leo Barry

Leo Barry

Age

47

Ht

184cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

4.4

1star

K

2.6

1star

HB

1.8

2star

M

0.8

1star

T

1.2

3star

.. Kieran Jack. I remember watching his early games thinking you have got to be kidding. This guy with never make it.

 

[ashep]

I think it's great that everyone has different opinions on our list strategy, but it definitely seems like those who aren't happy keep being told that we mustn't "understand" what the club is doing.

We understand, we just don't like it!

 

[DST]

I can see us trading our future first for a first this year directly after matching the Campbell bid.

Get another top 15 player before going into deficit on Gulden.

That would be a good play if there was someone left on the table at the time of the swap that we really rated.

Means if we did go into deficit for next year we still have pulled an early first rounder.

I also think 2021 is the first year we really start to go hard for free agents again off the back of going to the draft the last 5 years and completely rebuilding the list profile.


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[DST]

Most people seem to have very blinkered on individual parts of running a club.
We are the only club in the league that has a players contract that cannot be adjusted (Buddy) and who can't retire without getting his contract paid in full in the salary cap as per the salary agreed.
We live in the most expensive city in the country which means we have to pay more money to players to get them to come then it costs in Victoria etc and leads to a requirement for longer contracts
You don't plan necessarily on a year to year basis but on a multiyear basis. We decided to rely on the draft the last few years with some very specific targets (Moore/Daniher) which would fill a need and when not arriving we got in low cost with potential options which brought in experience and would get us to the 95% of the cap.
We also don't know if the club is front loading contracts, saving cap for a splash in a year or two for when the young group are more experienced and Buddys contract is smaller or gone.
If Hickey comes at a low price and is fit for 3 years he is worth it.
Yes teams get injuries but it all depends on who gets injured - if Geelong lost Hawkins, Dangerfield, Guthrie, Blicavs, Henderson how many more games do they lose or Richmond lose Lynch, Martin, Preston, Nank, Broad the same applies.


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Ummm, sorry to break it to you but all free agency contracts have the same conditions as Franklin’s contract. It’s just that Franklin was the first and the rule was instigated due to his free agency contact.


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[tombomb]

Still cannot fathom why we would consider hickey as an option. Better off recruiting a young untried ruck if Wer going down that path.

Taylor,brand, gray, hickey would have to be the worst recruitment period of any club in recent memory. We are a bottom 4 team and not one of those 4 our best 22 players.

It should be nearly impossible for a bottom 4 team to bring in 4 senior players who are not walk up starts, but we managed to do it

I just hope that this is a long term strategy to create significant salary cap room for when our core group of 19-23yo's are all hitting the 100 game+ sweet spot, and we can be in the market for every available player no matter how much they cost.

Confident that is the case, but another couple of years of doing nothing at all in the trade period and I would be getting worried.

 

[Superstar swan]

I just hope that this is a long term strategy to create significant salary cap room for when our core group of 19-23yo's are all hitting the 100 game+ sweet spot, and we can be in the market for every available player no matter how much they cost.

Confident that is the case, but another couple of years of doing nothing at all in the trade period and I would be getting worried.

The problem you can create all the space in the world but if you don’t show the capacity to improve and compete, no one of any real value will ever look at us. Norf have been throwing 7 million dollar deals at everyone and still no one took the bait

 

[tombomb]

The problem you can create all the space in the world but if you don’t show the capacity to improve and compete, no one of any real value will ever look at us. Norf have been throwing 7 million dollar deals at everyone and still no one took the bait

Personally, I think we are improving. Unfortunately that hasn't necessarily showed up in wins and losses yet though.

 

[brad cooper]

It's interesting reading all the different takes on some of our young players. It got me questioning some of my opinions on some of them as I believe they are tracking well although a few hiccups so I started comparing stats with some players from opposition teams.
Without bringing everyone of them up and if they are like for like. The stats on a lot of small/medium forwards are not much different or better than Hayward bar the elite. Likewise with Florent. I agree with others that they will both be solid b graders and who knows maybe more. Mills and Heeney are very solid good players who are still on the rise i think.
I always think back to past players as I have mentioned in previous posts of slow trajectories Brett Kirk

Brett Kirk

Age

48

Ht

184cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.5

5star

K

8.9

3star

HB

9.6

5star

M

2.7

3star

T

5.3

5star

CL

2.4

4star

No current season stats available

D

16.8

4star

K

13.0

5star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.2

4star

, Troy Luff, Leo Barry

Leo Barry

Age

47

Ht

184cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

4.4

1star

K

2.6

1star

HB

1.8

2star

M

0.8

1star

T

1.2

3star

.. Kieran Jack. I remember watching his early games thinking you have got to be kidding. This guy with never make it.

Very good point you make, even the greatest swan of them all Adam Goodes drafted 1997 didn't really do much until 2003.

 

[tombomb]

Very good point you make, even the greatest swan of them all Adam Goodes drafted 1997 didn't really do much until 2003.

Goodes won the rising star in 99. But I still agree with the general point that we just need to be patient with young players.

Florent and Hayward are 22 and 21, both have played about 70 games.

Just wait until they are 25 and have played 130 games, then we will see the players are going to be.

I thought shane edwards

10

Shane Edwards

Age

36

Ht

182cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.2

4star

K

8.1

3star

HB

9.1

5star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

3.0

4star

D

16.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.6

1star

T

3.0

4star

CL

4.2

5star

D

8.6

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.2

3star

was just a fringe flanker for the first 7 or 8 years of his career, now he is dominating every final he plays in.

 

[Bear31]

The problem you can create all the space in the world but if you don’t show the capacity to improve and compete, no one of any real value will ever look at us. Norf have been throwing 7 million dollar deals at everyone and still no one took the bait

Comparing us to North is a joke. We have been improving and you just can not see it.
If we do not bring in a big trade every year you are unhappy.
At least you are consistent.
But trading in big guns at the wrong time turns us into an Essendon. I do not want to be an Essendon.

 

[Dubsforsam1]

I think it's great that everyone has different opinions on our list strategy, but it definitely seems like those who aren't happy keep being told that we mustn't "understand" what the club is doing.

We understand, we just don't like it!

So what is the club doing then on a long term strategy basis and why don't you like it?

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[WillHayward]

How about we get a ruck who is under 25 and actually plays?

Relying on Naismith is utter insanity imo.

 

[WillHayward]

When our interest in Hickey was first floated, I was going to be OK with it on the basis that he wasn't the only ruck we recruited, and I maintain that - I'll have no problem with recruiting Hickey if we get a younger guy to develop. A Lloyd Meek from Freo who I've thought looks promising or someone else from around the country in the 20-23 age bracket. So I'm hoping for that.

With respect to Hickey specifically, the 3 years (if it's indeed the case - it's hardly been reported so far all things considered) is a reflection of trying to recruit a guy on the other side of the country who already has a contract for next year in addition to our side being bottom 4. That's just business. Secondly, Hickey is genuinely not as bad as being made out here. He's not contending for an All-Australian selection but if you look at his performance over the last few years and over his career, he compares pretty well with guys like Nankervis, Lycett, Bellchambers and the like. So he's never been one of the best rucks in the league but that also isn't what we're targeting. We just badly need some senior-calibre depth and that's what Hickey is. He barely got a game this year with WCE for good reason too - he was playing behind the All-Australian ruckman in a shortened-quarter season which played to Naitanui's advantage of being a burst player who doesn't generally play full regular-season quarters.

And he's really not that bad - he looks ungainly but from 2016-2019, these were certainly not hopeless average numbers per game:

13 disposals
3 marks
3 tackles
25 HO's
4 clearances

It sounds as if we targeted other rucks (Ladhams, Lycett, Nankervis) and had no luck so in a shallow pool, we've done what we can. We're desperate for some senior-calibre depth but I don't think it's an outrageous decision in context. I just hope we bring in another young guy to have in development - I don't buy Amartey as a senior-calibre guy one day personally.

Lloyd Meek is absolutely perfect for us.
Fits our age profile and stuck behind Sean Darcy

4

Sean Darcy

Age

26

Ht

203cm

Wt

111kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.1

3star

K

3.4

1star

HB

6.6

4star

CL

2.4

4star

HO

28.8

5star

D

6.8

1star

K

2.0

1star

HB

4.8

3star

CL

1.8

4star

HO

20.3

5star

D

11.4

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

6.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

32.0

5star

at Freo.
Good suggestion imo.

 

[Millky95]

How about we get a ruck who is under 25 and actually plays?

Relying on Naismith is utter insanity imo.

None of them want to play for us

 

[tombomb]

How about we get a ruck who is under 25 and actually plays?

Relying on Naismith is utter insanity imo.

Who?

They are not easy to find. Geelong have been trying desperately for almost 10 years to find a decent ruckman.