TennisPlayerAndy
Game #6 Klay
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
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Roo Lives Again
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- Jun 22, 2012
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Oooops
I'm not sure I like waking up on a tuesday morning and not seeing the Squiggle updated! 
I think I might have Squiggle withdrawals later this month
I think I might have Squiggle withdrawals later this month
I'm not sure I like waking up on a tuesday morning and not seeing the Squiggle updated!
I think I might have Squiggle withdrawals later this month
Cricket squiggle!
- Aug 18, 2009
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Finals Week 1, 2014
Port Adelaide skipped ahead to a very nice position this week on the back of their comprehensive demolition of Richmond. In fact, not only have the Power fully arrested their decline, but they're in a better position now than they were at any point this season, even better than when they were a game clear at the top of the ladder. They're so close to a bunch of premiership cups, they could lick them, if they wanted to, and were feeling a bit weird.
The squiggle doesn't think this is enough to beat Freo in Perth, though, as I'll post later. But it's been a pretty amazing journey for the Power this season.
The Hawks beat Geelong by a bit more than expected, but otherwise there wasn't much squiggle movement from the other finals games.
The interactive squiggle stopped updating over the weekend; sorry about that. It's working again now!
Strapping Young Lad
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- Apr 19, 2006
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Geelong v North looks to be a good game.
Sadly I think the squiggle is right. We will beat Port but will go down to Hawks in the prelim. That's not even taking into consideration of the week off they get.
Finals Week 1, 2014
Port Adelaide skipped ahead to a very nice position this week on the back of their comprehensive demolition of Richmond. In fact, not only have the Power fully arrested their decline, but they're in a better position now than they were at any point this season, even better than when they were a game clear at the top of the ladder. They're so close to a bunch of premiership cups, they could lick them, if they wanted to, and were feeling a bit weird.
The squiggle doesn't think this is enough to beat Freo in Perth, though, as I'll post later. But it's been a pretty amazing journey for the Power this season.
The Hawks beat Geelong by a bit more than expected, but otherwise there wasn't much squiggle movement from the other finals games.
The interactive squiggle stopped updating over the weekend; sorry about that. It's working again now!
The Fremantle / Port Adelaide fixture reiterates the strength of finishing 4th as distinct from 5th. Sure Port got a fantastic movement in the squiggle by playing Richmond (who looked cooked) but imagine if they got 4th instead of 5th? Not only would they have home state advantage (and would therefore be favourite to win via the squiggle) but they’d get the extra days preparation to prepare for the final.
Notwithstanding the convention of the top 4 sides always making it to PF weekend will be genuinely challenged this week. North have a very strong record against Geelong in recent years and Port Adelaide went down to Fremantle by 8 points a fortnight ago…and Fremantle appear to have picked up a number of injuriers from their battering QF against the Swans.
On a side note, is this the first time in 3 to 4 months that Hawthorn are the highest ranked side by squiggle?
I understand West Coast did it in 2006, but the importance of the week off is even more pronounced with respect to the WA clubs.
Over the last 3 weeks you’ve travelled to Brisbane, back to Perth, to Sydney and now you’re back in Perth. If you get up this week you have to travel to Melbourne and if you get over us, you’re back in Melbourne again for the GF (you may as well just base yourself in Melbourne from next week…)
By contrast Hawthorn played its final 2 home / away games at the MCG, its first final in Melbourne and has the week off…
Not saying you can’t do it, but if you win it this year the Dockers will have definitely earned it!
On form it's a 4 horse race between Hawks, Swans, Freo and Port, but really it's Hawks and Swans. The Port and Geelong positions shows up clearly Port is on the up and Geelong on the way down, but the flip side of that is Geelong still have the experienced player smarts to close out those close 50/50 matches. Port lost their's against Essendon and Collingwood. You can't get that experience short of games and Port are ahead of where their game/age should be. We haven't been beaten by more than 30 all year, but the lack of more older experienced players that all the other remaining contenders have has bitten on the arse.
Unless Fremantle have most of their 50/50 players not coming up I think they'll edge us over there.
West Coast at least finished 1st in 2006. They didnt travel for the first 2 weeks of the finals and had a short flight to Adelaide for the prelim. Best comparison for Freo now would be Sydney 2005. Travelled to Perth week 1 and lost, and travelled to Melbourne week 3 and 4 and some how won both.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Finals Preview: Week 2
Cats vs Kangaroos
Cats vs Kangaroos
These two clubs have been shadowing each other on the squiggle for a few weeks now, and there's practically nothing between them. The main difference is that North's squiggle has more movement, with the Roos zipping up and down and back and forth, en route to becoming the hardest team to tip this season.
Squiggle tip:
This tip is based on no home ground advantage, which is what ISTATE-91:12 is doing for finals games between Geelong and any Melbourne-based team.
Top 10 Algorithms: Geelong 7 (by 1-15 pts), North 3 (7-11 pts).
Last week, the squiggle's 10 best 2014 algorithms were unanimous on every game (and got them all right). But this week there is dissension!
For this game, it's mostly about who should get home ground advantage. All three algorithms tipping North are only doing so because they think the Roos get home ground advantage at the 'G. Two algorithms are doing the reverse: only tipping Geelong because they think the Cats play better at the G. And five are tipping Geelong either way: they don't care about HGA or else don't think it will make a difference.
The most sophisticated home-ground algorithm, VENUE, thinks the Cats should have the advantage, with Geelong being a 4-point better team at the 'G than normal, while North break even.
Dockers vs Power
Two teams that haven't crossed squiggles this season, both of which are very definitely heading in the right direction. They're also very evenly rated, with the Dockers just marginally ahead. But the home-ground advantage is enough to make a Freo victory likely.
Squiggle tip:
Top 10 Algorithms: Fremantle 9 (by 9-16 pts), Port Adelaide 1 (by 3 pts).
An interesting dissenting opinion from SHOTS-4:3, which is tipping Port because it takes into consideration the number of scoring shots in a match (awarding 4 pts for a goal and 3 pts for a behind), and when you do this, Port's last month looks even better. For example, in Round 20, Port lost at home to Sydney by 26 points, which is a fairly comprehensive defeat. But the Power had only 1 fewer scoring shot, kicking 7.16 to Sydney's 12.12. In Round 21, Port beat Gold Coast only narrowly, but had plenty more shots: 7.14 to 7.5. Then they scored 20 behinds against Carlton (40 scoring shots to 12) and had more shots than Freo despite losing to them.
Certainly you can dismiss bad kicking as bad football. And SHOTS-4:3 hasn't had its greatest year: I'm actually only including in the Top 10 because of its long-term record. But that record is very good.
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The King!
Chosen One
saints v swans 05? lead by only 7 at 3/4 time and didnt score a goal in the last, just got outrun especially by Okeefe and from memory he was pushing forward on someone short, maybe Brett Voss which was odd coaching.
The King!
Chosen One
hawthorn just keep circling those cups!
Hawthorn and Sydney are both in similar territory to 2012 evidently.
The Swans are more attacking, the Hawks more defensive but nonetheless both are circling the same regions
SHOTS-4:3 highlights Port's problem for much of the year. A lack of a third tall forward has often led to entries into the forward 50 that are either shallow or wide (or both). When we played Fremantle last time we led them for inside 50's all game. Including 13-4 at one stage in the first quarter, but went into that break all tied up. Most people point to the 9 goals in a row Freo. got as the difference, but IMO Port lost it in that first quarter by not converting their chances. At 13 - 4 inside 50's they should have gone into quarter time 2 - 3 goals up and Freo having to set up a more defensive structure. Which would have made their later run harder to do. At the end of the game we were up 2 more scoring shots and had over the rest of the game still had 5 more inside 50's to finish with 14 more inside 50's in total.Dockers vs Power
Two teams that haven't crossed squiggles this season, both of which are very definitely heading in the right direction. They're also very evenly rated, with the Dockers just marginally ahead. But the home-ground advantage is enough to make a Freo victory likely.
Squiggle tip:Fremantle 86 - 73 Port Adelaide
Top 10 Algorithms: Fremantle 9 (by 9-16 pts), Port Adelaide 1 (by 3 pts).
An interesting dissenting opinion from SHOTS-4:3, which is tipping Port because it takes into consideration the number of scoring shots in a match (awarding 4 pts for a goal and 3 pts for a behind), and when you do this, Port's last month looks even better. For example, in Round 20, Port lost at home to Sydney by 26 points, which is a fairly comprehensive defeat. But the Power had only 1 fewer scoring shot, kicking 7.16 to Sydney's 12.12. In Round 21, Port beat Gold Coast only narrowly, but had plenty more shots: 7.14 to 7.5. Then they scored 20 behinds against Carlton (40 scoring shots to 12) and had more shots than Freo despite losing to them.
Certainly you can dismiss bad kicking as bad football. And SHOTS-4:3 hasn't had its greatest year: I'm actually only including in the Top 10 because of its long-term record. But that record is very good.
Port will get plenty of the ball, the biggest question is whether they can get into the forward 50 effectively. And kick the ones they should. In addition to poor forward 50 entries last time, there were quite a few gettable shots on goal that were missed, that Fremantle punished us for. Against the Tigers Port were getting the shots from positions they've struggled to the last couple of months, so it should make for a good match.
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- Aug 18, 2009
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I think that's right.
For those who like rankings, I've added a "Form" link on the interactive squiggle that shows who's higher than whom.
It's just about dead even at the top and almost nothing between the Cats & Roos.
What's the score between Swans vs Hawks with no home ground advantage? Because the Swans don't have a good record at the MCG, but do when it comes to prelims and grand finals.
I was a big believer in the squiggle last week as it tipped the way I wanted it to go.
This week I judge it to be no better than Roby, because it is tipping a Cats win.
Will be close either way.
Brilliant stuff Final Siren.
This week I judge it to be no better than Roby, because it is tipping a Cats win.
Will be close either way.
Brilliant stuff Final Siren.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Yep.
I think our only saving grace is that if we can get to the prelim and somehow catch you out. We would go into the GF with a lot of confidence having won on the MCG the week before. That would probably be cancelled out by the extra travel. I wonder if they would consider just staying in Melbourne for the week if the impossible happened?
Just on the "Home" factor, i previously did some analysis and the home advantage in finals was massively correlated to victory, is there any evidence in your model to suggest the home factor is more prevalent in finals?
