Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[adogsfan5]

Might be a few Brisbane Lions players up for grabs if their playing group is as split as what the circulating rumors are suggesting, that club is about to hit crisis mode.

But but but but at least the Lions do more running, hey Dunks?

 

[Yesterday Dog]

No Andrew we don't want your son back. We need his midfield time for Sanders. It's just great watching life absolutely steam-roll your boy.

 

[weltschmerz]

Didn’t Dunkley first request to leave because Bruce and Hunter had too many beers in the hub?

 

[dogwatch]

For goals kicked, sure. But if your measuring stick for a midfielder is kicking 3.5 goals a game then I don’t know what to tell you, he’d win the Coleman with that. All players have spike games, two of his best just happen to have been back to back and in finals. That’s a good thing, I feel like you’re holding it against him for some reason.

Only point I’m trying to make is that we’re quick to forget just how good Bailey was/can be

Saying one of our star players is not really that good after all is the first stage of dealing with their imminent departure. We’ve seen it with English a bit too.

Nothing wrong with it really (except that the board’s valuation shifts slightly when the discussion turns to the trade). It’s a coping mechanism for handling loss or disappointment.

The fox took the same attitude when he saw that the grapes were out of his reach.

 

[adogsfan5]

Didn’t Dunkley first request to leave because Bruce and Hunter had too many beers in the hub?

Think he cracked the shits about the lack of professionalism. In fairness, the lions issue is much different (off season and were just stupid enough to be caught).

 

[BulldogMuscle]

I can only imagine how our fans would react if an opposition supporter posted this sort of tripe about our club.

I can only imagine that doing a two second google search or BigFooty search would show that my above message was truth, but instead you took the low road and typed out the above message without thinking.

Apology accepted tho, thanks mate

 

[VitalDread]

Might be a few Brisbane Lions players up for grabs if their playing group is as split as what the circulating rumors are suggesting, that club is about to hit crisis mode.

Explains why Dunks moved up north

That culture

 

[BrisDog]

This is a myth. Had multiple excellent games in 2021 and his 2022 up to the headbutt was outstanding as well

That headbutt lost us the game in my opinion. A complete momentum changer.

 

[bobs head soup]

Not even rumors, it's now being run with by a few media personalities.

Bunch of Lions lads went to Vegas last off season, cheated on their missues, decided to talk about it via whatsapp group chat, Charlie Cameron forgot that all his iPhone s**t was on the cloud so his missus back home was reading their group chats, she's let other WAGS know. s**t + Fan.

Also Starcevic was dating Lyons sister, the unconfirmed rumor is he cheated on her whilst on the trip.

Lions club officials have had an emergency meeting bout this as of yesterday (good Friday) - more to come over the coming days I suppose.

Reckon the phrase 'what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas' would've been uttered many, many times during that trip too.

Silly boys. Having faith that WhatsApp group chats stay 100% private have bought a lot of people undone.

 

[dogwatch]

That headbutt lost us the game in my opinion. A complete momentum changer.

His form was never as good after he came back from his 2+2 weeks off.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

Explains why Dunks moved up north

That culture

Wouldn’t take Dunks back even if he came for free. The only Ostrich with his “head in the sand” is Dunkley and Dunkley Snr thinking that all football clubs don’t have various forms of culture issues.

He left us and gave us a hard swipe on culture issues on the way out, and yes, certain players of ours most certainly enjoyed to much booze and Peruvian marching powder, but to play it off like it was just a Dogs thing was comical.

Let’s see if his a man of his word and now requests another trade due to “culture” issues.

 

[doggies ftw]

Anyone feeling a Marra announcement imminent

 

[threenewpadlocks]

FWIW I did a quick statistical analysis of Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

's overall form using a mixture of recent form and degrading the values of games before that. Essentially taking an average of his player ratings points from the last 10 game and a lessr weight of games 11-19 ago (ie game 19 ago is 10%, 15 ago is 50% etc).

There's a fair argument that the form he showed by the end of the year was the worst of his career, even worse than when he was playing his literal first games of his career.

His peak was the early games of the 2022 season.



476 players played at least 10 games last year (26 players per team average constituting "best 22"). A player ratings point average of just above 8 if translated across the season is good for about 280th in the league among those 476 players, or about the 15th best player in a team. Keep in mind that many of the players ranked below him are key defenders etc. who don't score well on statistical systems.

His decline was pretty easy to see.

 

[doggies ftw]

FWIW I did a quick statistical analysis of Bailey Smith's overall form using a mixture of recent form and degrading the values of games before that. Essentially taking an average of his player ratings points from the last 10 game and a lessr weight of games 11-19 ago (ie game 19 ago is 10%, 15 ago is 15% etc).

There's a fair argument that the form he showed by the end of the year was the worst of his career, even worse than when he was playing his literal first games of his career.

His peak was the early games of the 2022 season.

View attachment 1943861

476 players played at least 10 games last year (26 players per team average constituting "best 22"). A player ratings point average of just above 8 if translated across the season is good for about 280th in the league among those 476 players, or about the 15th best player in a team. Keep in mind that many of the players ranked below him are key defenders etc. who don't score well on statistical systems.

His decline was pretty easy to see.

Where abouts does his peak (12-14) land him?

It’s clear he dropped off last year but I’d guess the whole side bar a few players would have seen a similar decline so I’m loathe to solely judge him on it when this team has been poorly coached and underperforming across the board.

We need to get him back to the high standard he’s capable of

 

[dogwatch]

FWIW I did a quick statistical analysis of Bailey Smith's overall form using a mixture of recent form and degrading the values of games before that. Essentially taking an average of his player ratings points from the last 10 game and a lessr weight of games 11-19 ago (ie game 19 ago is 10%, 15 ago is 50% etc).

There's a fair argument that the form he showed by the end of the year was the worst of his career, even worse than when he was playing his literal first games of his career.

His peak was the early games of the 2022 season.

View attachment 1943861

476 players played at least 10 games last year (26 players per team average constituting "best 22"). A player ratings point average of just above 8 if translated across the season is good for about 280th in the league among those 476 players, or about the 15th best player in a team. Keep in mind that many of the players ranked below him are key defenders etc. who don't score well on statistical systems.

His decline was pretty easy to see.

Any chance of including the y axis? I guess it’s got to be games not dates but it would be good to break it into seasons if possible.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Where abouts does his peak (12-14) land him?

It’s clear he dropped off last year but I’d guess the whole side bar a few players would have seen a similar decline so I’m loathe to solely judge him on it when this team has been poorly coached and underperforming across the board.

We need to get him back to the high standard he’s capable of

At around 40th in the league.

Keep in mind though that there's plenty of players (admittedly not many who got there before the age of 22) who also, if you want to isolate some point of time in their career just through 'natural variance', would have also gotten close to/more than that average. Like just to pick a player at random, Jacob Hopper averaged more than Smith at stages in late 2019 and it doesn't mean he's a superstar of the game today.

 

[ossie_21]

Anyone feeling a Marra announcement imminent

No, it’s more to to with Eddie Betts & awareness this week

 

[W W Biscuit]

Reckon the phrase 'what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas' would've been uttered many, many times during that trip too.

Silly boys. Having faith that WhatsApp group chats stay 100% private have bought a lot of people undone.

Reminds me of a good one I heard during the week.

Q. What’s the difference between Las Vegas and Wuhan?

A. What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas!

 

[weltschmerz]

Where abouts does his peak (12-14) land him?

It’s clear he dropped off last year but I’d guess the whole side bar a few players would have seen a similar decline so I’m loathe to solely judge him on it when this team has been poorly coached and underperforming across the board.

We need to get him back to the high standard he’s capable of

Possibly more relevantly, he got nine Brownlow votes in the first ten rounds of 2022, then one in the last six rounds after he got back from suspension.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Possibly more relevantly, he got nine Brownlow votes in the first ten rounds of 2022, then one in the last six rounds after he got back from suspension.

Yep. I'm not saying Smith is a poor player or no chance of returning to the best footy that he has displayed in his past.

Just that ... consistently, it better to treat the players their form, and assume what is the best predictor for their future success is obviously their most recent form and not some distant form in the past.

If we're going by the default assumption that Smith will return to how good he was, then we need to be fair and equally apply that to every player, and also assume that they'll return to how good they were.

Will Jacob Hopper be one of the game's best onballers for Richmond for the rest of the season, like he has been in spurts at GWS? Nobody is saying that, because we are doing the common sense thing of judging him on his most recent form (obviously).

 

[HK_Bulldog]

His form was never as good after he came back from his 2+2 weeks off.

That Dermie article as well. I think that affected Smith too. Dermie obviously forgot what he himself was like when he was 22.

 

[doggies ftw]

Yep. I'm not saying Smith is a poor player or no chance of returning to the best footy that he has displayed in his past.

Just that ... consistently, it better to treat the players their form, and assume what is the best predictor for their future success is obviously their most recent form and not some distant form in the past.

If we're going by the default assumption that Smith will return to how good he was, then we need to be fair and equally apply that to every player, and also assume that they'll return to how good they were.

Will Jacob Hopper be one of the game's best onballers for Richmond for the rest of the season, like he has been in spurts at GWS? Nobody is saying that, because we are doing the common sense thing of judging him on his most recent form (obviously).

Im not going by the assumption he’ll return to his best im just saying that im loathe to judge him or anyone completely on their recent poor form (if they’ve shown better in the past) when the whole team has been on a similar decline and weve been such a poorly coached and run team.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Im not going by the assumption he’ll return to his best im just saying that im loathe to judge him or anyone completely on their recent poor form (if they’ve shown better in the past) when the whole team has been on a similar decline and weve been such a poorly coached and run team.

But by your logic the very form that they've shown better in the past could be because of the opposite of everything in your post - the club was on an incline at the time, and it was such a well coached and run team then. Smith's better output in the past should also be loathe to judge for the same reasons you gave, if you can't judge his recent poor form.

You logically can't have it both ways. Either it matters for a player's form, or it doesn't.

 

[doggies ftw]

But by your logic the very form that they've shown better in the past could be because of the opposite of everything in your post - the club was on an incline at the time, and it was such a well coached and run team then. Smith's better output in the past should also be loathe to judge for the same reasons you gave, if you can't judge his recent poor form.

You logically can't have it both ways. Either it matters for a player's form, or it doesn't.

Yes I expect him to play better in a well coached and managed team, I’m not sure what your point is here? So in a good side he can play top 40 in the league football? Great?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Yes I expect him to play better in a well coached and managed team, I’m not sure what your point is here? So in a good side he can play top 40 in the league football? Great?

Because if we hold your logic true there's literally no insight gained whatsoever in actually trying to see how good of a player he is if you throw out all of his play simply by the basis of wider team form. At some point you have to try and estimate how good of a player he is, in order to achieve things like determining how much money a team should pay him in the salary cap, rather than saying "because he's a good player in a good team and a bad player in a bad team, it's all too hard, we can't truly determine how good or bad of a player he actually is, we shouldn't judge any of it".

Also, it doesn't make much sense. There's plenty of players that have played well in a bad team or bad system, but you can't assume that they'll instantly become a good player in a good team. How would you look at Toby McLean's overall career, and "netural" player form, for example, when he played clealry his best footy for the club in bad teams that were "poorly coached" (Dogs late 2017-2018).