The line betting Royal Decree

[Kynge of Begrem]

Much better week only spoiled by Geelong covering the line

-37.65u

 

[Nothing]

Much better week only spoiled by Geelong covering the line

-37.65u

I was worried you were going to run out of weeks but it now seems a fait accompli. Well done on the week.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

I was worried you were going to run out of weeks but it now seems a fait accompli. Well done on the week.

Should be all over within a fortnight. Thankfully brett128 sent me his new improved model and the losses are even quicker than with his last one.

 

[brett128]

You will not lose your money significantly beyond what a coin flip would do for you, as that would require real edge.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

You will not lose your money significantly beyond what a coin flip would do for you, as that would require real edge.

Have you seen my index? I know I haven't reached the dizzying lows that you achieved, albeit without even trying, but I WILL beat your -87 per cent.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

5 units Gold Coast +15.5 @1.92
5 units GWS +3.5 @1.92
5 units Freo +2.5 @1.92

 

[brett128]

Have you seen my index? I know I haven't reached the dizzying lows that you achieved, albeit without even trying, but I WILL beat your -87 per cent.

Anyone would flipping enough coins over time

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Anyone would flipping enough coins over time

And you claim to be a statistical genius

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

5 u Richmond +29.5 @ 1.92

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

5 u Parramatta +18.5 @1.92

 

[lamaros]

I feel you will continue your run this week. Though a few really bad bets won't hurt.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

5 units North Melbourne +22.5 @ 1.92

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

5 units Brisbane Fitzroy LionBears -29.5 @1.92

 

[brett128]

And you claim to be a statistical genius

I don't think you fully comprehend what I'm saying.

Keep a win % logged here, you'll find you wont do significantly worse than 50% ATS.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

And you claim to be a statistical genius

I don't think you fully comprehend what I'm saying.

Keep a win % logged here, you'll find you wont do significantly worse than 50% ATS.

Given that you did significantly worse ie you lost 87 per cent of your money, what does that say about this 'edge' you speak of?

 

[brett128]

Given that you did significantly worse ie you lost 87 per cent of your money, what does that say about this 'edge' you speak of?

You don't understand what 'significantly worse' means in a statistical context. Losing 87% is not (statistically) significantly worse than a 50% ATS record.

As to my current edge, i'm 56% for 411 plays this season, and all released to the public. Depending on whether I move from my current tout mob or not (pending a new deal), I'll let you know where you could find them.

 

[Island Bomber]

You don't understand what 'significantly worse' means in a statistical context. Losing 87% is not (statistically) significantly worse than a 50% ATS record.

As to my current edge, i'm 56% for 411 plays this season, and all released to the public. Depending on whether I move from my current tout mob or not (pending a new deal), I'll let you know where you could find them.

Have you run into any problems with limitations at certain books yet?

 

[brett128]

Have you run into any problems with limitations at certain books yet?

LuxBet, Bet365, TAB and Tom Waterhouse.

We don't have betting problems at the moment, the BR is $60K off its peak. At one point we were within striking distance of $100K, after a record at 58% after 200-odd plays goes to 56% after 400-odd plays, the volatility of half-kelly betting struck pretty hard, and combined with my Germany trip, >$60K vanished in a month.

 

[Burgundy]

You don't understand what 'significantly worse' means in a statistical context. Losing 87% is not (statistically) significantly worse than a 50% ATS record.

As to my current edge, i'm 56% for 411 plays this season, and all released to the public. Depending on whether I move from my current tout mob or not (pending a new deal), I'll let you know where you could find them.

My current edge is 59% over 1,271 plays, if you want any help feel free to inbox me

 

[brett128]

My current edge is 59% over 1,271 plays, if you want any help feel free to inbox me

What sports?

 

[Burgundy]

What sports?

Predominantly Tennis, AFL, NRL, NFL

 

[Duritz]

Predominantly Tennis, AFL, NRL, NFL

PM me all of your models please.

 

[brett128]

Predominantly Tennis, AFL, NRL, NFL

Geez mate, 59% ATS over 1200 plays in those liquid markets would take a $10K roll and turn it into single digit millions even at 1/3 Kelly! I have no doubt we'll be hearing more about your betting exploits in the media sooner rather than later. And this is even with you mixing up the differing concepts of edge and ATS win %!

Screw this, I don't want to follow Billy W's 57% ATS lifetime or Dr Bob's 55% lifetime, Burdgundy's the new ATS king on the block!

 

[Duritz]

Geez mate, 59% ATS over 1200 plays in those liquid markets would take a $10K roll and turn it into single digit millions even at 1/3 Kelly! I have no doubt we'll be hearing more about your betting exploits in the media sooner rather than later. And this is even with you mixing up the differing concepts of edge and ATS win %!

Screw this, I don't want to follow Billy W's 57% ATS lifetime or Dr Bob's 55% lifetime, Burdgundy's the new ATS king on the block!

He's pm'd me his models, they're very good.

 

[Duritz]

Geez mate, 59% ATS over 1200 plays in those liquid markets would take a $10K roll and turn it into single digit millions even at 1/3 Kelly! I have no doubt we'll be hearing more about your betting exploits in the media sooner rather than later. And this is even with you mixing up the differing concepts of edge and ATS win %!

Screw this, I don't want to follow Billy W's 57% ATS lifetime or Dr Bob's 55% lifetime, Burdgundy's the new ATS king on the block!

Aren't all those guys yanks though betting on yank sports?