The Footy Whisperer

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M

mookieb

Club Legend
Veteran
Oct 4, 2006
2,460
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Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Been working on a few models for AFL team performance based on psychological factors rather than the standard statistical models. Looking at how teams deal with particular wins or losses, negative external factors (ie Collingwood drug scandal at start of the year), teams looking to have a "week off", impact of factors such as "honesty sessions" and how teams perform under certain pressure situations.

Will post my bets and compare to my other bets based on standard factors such as form, matchups home ground advantage etc to see how it compares.
 
To kick things off. While Hawks tend to coast against weak teams I think round 1 vs Essendon will have a bit of meaning to it. O'Meara, Vickery and Mitchell all have had the spotlight on them and well be very keen to well first up. Rougheads back from a 12 month break and a new Captain to boot. Expect him to be mobbed when he kicks his first goal.

On the flip side I expect there might be a few nerves on the Essendon side having missed 12 months of footy. Potential for them to make a slow start.

On the Hawks -10.5 and will also back them at the 1st quarter line if things don't change too much between now and the start of games.
 

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Ooh ooh, what about:
1. Premiership let down for the bulldogs
2. Dustin Martin contract distractions for tigers
3. The second year letdown, post the "Patrick Ewing effect", of Dangerfield leaving Adelaide.
 
Finally. I pick the most wanky nic possible, talk about betting on psychological factors which apparently is impossible and it takes seemingly forever for the taunts to flow in! Always good to have a bit of extra motivation so a belated thank you.

Happy to post bets as results are the only thing that matters at the end of the day.

Now while I have the worlds tiniest audience at my fingertips how about we back the "Etihad Curse" and back St Kilda -1.5 vs Melbourne.
 
On the following:
2 unit Hawks -10.5
2 unit WC -15.5
2 unit Rich -10.5

1 unit for the win on WC, Hawks, Rich, Syd, GC, Geel and GWS with TabTouch, TAB, WH, Bluebet and Crown promo's. Edit: Switched to a neutral result for Ade and Freo. Adelaide is a bit underdone, but good at home. I'm starting to get some serious concerns on Geelong looking at their lineup and preseason. Should get a positive result withe both games.

Changed my mind on Hawks vs Ess and now think Ess might come out breathing fire only to tire late. Happy with the bets above although might look at a live bet if I think Ess might get swamped.

Hoodoo venue (Etihad), hoodoo team? 2 units StK ($2.02)

Jordan De Goey breaks his hand and blames the dog. Hmmm. 1 unit WB for the win.
 
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Watts4Dinner said:
What the actual **** is going on...
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My assumption is that a range of psychological factors impact AFL games and can be factored in to make more accurate predictions on AFL games. I speculated on a few of these on this forum and was received some mocking, but someone suggested I log these bets in the bet tracker to measure their accuracy.

Some factors are fairly well known ie Hawks coming off a loss perform better the following week, team performance after changing coaches etc and some I have speculated on.

Early rounds last year had some good examples - Collingwood's drug scandal prior to their round 1 game (they got pumped) and Melbourne beating GWS in a thriller and the following week losing to Essendon quite comfortably.

Some of the bets I am taking the piss somewhat. I would be backing WB regardless, but having a best 22 player in De Goey in a distracting incident that made media headlines isn't the ideal preparation i'm sure you would agree.
 
mookieb said:
My assumption is that a range of psychological factors impact AFL games and can be factored in to make more accurate predictions on AFL games. I speculated on a few of these on this forum and was received some mocking, but someone suggested I log these bets in the bet tracker to measure their accuracy.

Some factors are fairly well known ie Hawks coming off a loss perform better the following week, team performance after changing coaches etc and some I have speculated on.

Early rounds last year had some good examples - Collingwood's drug scandal prior to their round 1 game (they got pumped) and Melbourne beating GWS in a thriller and the following week losing to Essendon quite comfortably.

Some of the bets I am taking the piss somewhat. I would be backing WB regardless, but having a best 22 player in De Goey in a distracting incident that made media headlines isn't the ideal preparation i'm sure you would agree.
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What's the psychological reason behind the Eagles and Richmond bets?
 
iluvparis said:
What's the psychological reason behind the Eagles and Richmond bets?
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Like most on here that take betting seriously I have a model that helps me to determine winners based on standard factors and statistics such as matchups, home ground etc so most of my bets will be based around this. So the WC and Rich bets fit in this mould.

However, I will also be incorporating psychological factors which ideally will add to the confidence of my original bet ie the drama with De Goey gives me additional confidence in a WB win. Or where I will be betting solely on the potential significant impact of psychological factors.
 

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Bronwyn Bishop said:
'Without stats you're just another flog with an opinion' - Socrates
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Clearly as I have posted in the bet tracker segment of a punting forum i'm keen to accumulate stats to determine my success rate.

Additionally some of the theories I looked at from last season seemed to be very highly correlated to my assumptions so i'm reasonably confident. Only a small sample size though.
 
mookieb said:
Clearly as I have posted in the bet tracker segment of a punting forum i'm keen to accumulate stats to determine my success rate.

Additionally some of the theories I looked at from last season seemed to be very highly correlated to my assumptions so i'm reasonably confident. Only a small sample size though.
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It's a bit hard to accumulate the stats though if you are going to mix your 'model' bets and your 'psychological' bets.
 
0.5u StK vs Melb over 183.5.

Few smaller bonus bets on Tom Mitchell most group disposals and over 103.5 fantasy points, Hawks over 39.5, Lynch most goals for the round and StK 25+.
 
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Spads said:
So how do we decipher your results from the weekend? Psychology, Telepathy or some kind of numerical profit / loss summary?
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Clearly as i'm posting in a Bet Tracker sub forum i'm planning on tracking my bets. It's a little tricky as I have a mixture of my own bets, tailing others, and taking advantage of promotions with multiple accounts. I'm working through an excel worksheet when time becomes available,
 
0.5u Nankervis over 80.5 - $1.70 - Win
0.5u Mayne below 77.5 - $1.70 - Win
Rich vs Coll hedged between both teams via different promo's - Win
1u Ade -4.5 - $1.91 - Win
Hawks vs Ade hedged between both teams via different promo's - Win
2u Port -8.5 - $1.91 (placed prior to the season) - Win
1u Kennedy over Hannebery - $1.80 - Win
0.5u Dangerfield 30+ - $2.21 - Win
1u Betts under 78.5 - $1.88 - Win
1u GWS to win + Cameron 2+ goals - $2.87 - Win
3u Western Bulldogs (TAB, TABtouch, Crown, William Hill, Bluebet promo's) - Win
2u WB -9.5 - $1.91 - Win
0.25u bonus bet on Macrae + Hunter 60 possessions and WB 16+ - WTF? Loss
2u WC via different promo's - Win
2u GWS via different promo's - Win
Bris vs Ess hedged between both team via promo's - Win
1u Clayton most disposals Group A - $4.50 - Win
2u each on Geelong, Melbourne and Port via promo's - Win
1u Geel - $1.25 - Win
0.5u Geel line -28.5 - Loss
 
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2u Brisbane -22.5
2u WB -16.5
1u WC -8.5, 1u Rich +13.5
2u Carl +28.5
2u Under 168.5 Carl vs Ess
2u WC -10.5 (round 4)
1u Syd/Coll under 186.5
0.75u Coll +21.5 Treloar 29.5+
1u Buddy -18.5 vs Reid
1.5u hedged between both sides Syd / Coll, Geel vs Melb, WC vs Rich, Port vs Ade
1.25u GWS, Ess, Stk for the win
0.5u Bruce and Membrey 3+ goals each and StK win
0.25 BB on Lynch most goals
0.25 Mitchell most possessions
 
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