Dreams/Predictions How do you see the world of the future?

[clogged]

I'd argue the British conquest of India (and accompanying brutal suppresion of their local textile trade) added the mechanisation of production in places like Manchester, with the benefit of their hugely advanced and successful Navy, mattered more.

Point remains - where's the signature Chinese innovation?

British were ascendant before these things happened. Same as in the US, the invention of the motor car did not happen until the turn of the 20th century, however by then they were already the largest economy in the world, mostly via stealing IP from the British.

 

[MaddAdam]

British were ascendant before these things happened. Same as in the US, the invention of the motor car did not happen until the turn of the 20th century, however by then they were already the largest economy in the world, mostly via stealing IP from the British.

Were they? Not saying they weren't, thought they only made that after WWI. Could be wrong.

 

[clogged]

Were they? Not saying they weren't, thought they only made that after WWI. Could be wrong.

It was before then. Certainly by 1900 they were bigger than the UK, some sources cite even earlier such as the 1880s (The Economist says they were the leading economic power by 1871, though leading may have a different definition).

China's problem isn't that there aren't many creative thinkers there, it's that their political system may not allow the creative thinkers to flourish. And the biggest risk is that their creative thinkers head to the US and the West to conduct their research and development.

It would be like Edison, Ford and the Wright brothers heading to the UK to develop their technology.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

No, but I have spent the best part of the last 15 years working in and around politics.

And despite that, you have been leading the chorus of fools who think that ASADA (who report to the Minister for Sport) are going to hand down suspensions to half of the EFc list. From memory you even jumped the gun and claimed that Hird was going to get done for taking drugs and had to backtrack rather quickly IIRC. If you really knew politics, you'd have done a better job making predictions re Peptidegate son.

But in the US, after two of them, the electorate is very much opposed to any new ones. They have learned that lesson.

I hope with all my heart that your implied prediction (no more imperial wars started by US) proves accurate. But my head knows better.

 

[evo]

Reversion to mean.

the mean is increasing, though. Sure, China could easily have a credit bust, but as you acknowledge India will rise to take their position. And then there is the developing South (Sth East Asia and Sth America)

Any commodity 'bust' will be very temporary. There are just now too many materialists in the world not to be the case. And they all want a car, fridge and flat screen telly.

 

[MaddAdam]

It was before then. Certainly by 1900 they were bigger than the UK, some sources cite even earlier such as the 1880s (The Economist says they were the leading economic power by 1871, though leading may have a different definition).

China's problem isn't that there aren't many creative thinkers there, it's that their political system may not allow the creative thinkers to flourish. And the biggest risk is that their creative thinkers head to the US and the West to conduct their research and development.

It would be like Edison, Ford and the Wright brothers heading to the UK to develop their technology.

Yeah, that's the point I was making re China.

 

[MaddAdam]

And despite that, you have been leading the chorus of fools who think that ASADA (who report to the Minister for Sport) are going to hand down suspensions to half of the EFc list. From memory you even jumped the gun and claimed that Hird was going to get done for taking drugs and had to backtrack rather quickly IIRC. If you really knew politics, you'd have done a better job making predictions re Peptidegate son.

I hope with all my heart that your implied prediction (no more imperial wars started by US) proves accurate. But my head knows better.

Oh Jesus, we are through the looking glass now, you're equating the pissy Essendon drug s**t with a discussion about the very meaning of politics.

You have yet to grasp the inescapable and immutable law of representative politics. People are NOT stupid. People are you. Are you stupid?

People really do get the government they deserve in a relatively democratic system like ours.

I say it again, just because you don't agree with them ... doesn't make them stupid.

If you weren't a prissy wannabe know it all, you wouldn't be whinging about people voting PUP, you'd be looking at WHY people voted PUP.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

[blah blah blah]... you wouldn't be whinging about people voting PUP, you'd be looking at WHY people voted PUP.

Hahahhaa.

If you got off your mid-thirties-crisis-of-identity-heading-towards-conservatism-as-a-last-resort-to-feel-grown-up-it-wasnt-supposed-to-feel-this-way high horse, you might do some research on how I voted and why before spouting nonsense like this.

EDIT: As an aside, I saw Clive Palmer outside the front of Southbank cinemas on Wednesday, having a casual chat with some other older fella. Just sitting there on a bench - nobody even seemed to realise (or care) who they were. Got to admire a man who has outed the CIA on national television, and begun a political movement which might usurp Big Party, yet still chills out on a bench with an old mate without a hint of an entourage surrounding him.

 

[MaddAdam]

In terms of what the future will look like Smiling Buddha ... what do you think of Shorten's "one termer" line.

Will it be successful?

Why is he saying it?

 

[clogged]

Yeah, that's the point I was making re China.

The same arguments were being made 40 years ago about whether Japan could pivot from being the counterfeiter to the innovator. And it happened quickly.

Furthermore, Japan's greatest innovation (just-in-time manufacturing) was not a consumer product but a process, now used by every manufacturer in the world, and in a number of separate fields - logistics, finance, etc.

So whatever China is innovating we may not actually know about it for years.

 

[clogged]

In terms of what the future will look like Smiling Buddha ... what do you think of Shorten's "one termer" line.

Will it be successful?

Why is he saying it?

Who knows, but Abbott's retort "cocky" was quite clever.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

One puppet making inconsequential remarks about another puppet. Who gives a heck? Only the simpletons who think the papers and 6pm news exist to inform them. You know better so why do you give a heck?

Whenever I see that smarmy git Shorten, my mind can't help but recall what Latham had to say about him in Diaries (almost a decade ago now, can you believe?).

Paraphrasing: 'He will stand up on stage and tell his union members he is standing up for their rights at work, and then a few minutes later tell industry heavies that he believes in IR reform and lowering wages at an industry lunch'.

 

[MaddAdam]

Hahahhaa.

If you got off your mid-thirties-crisis-of-identity-heading-towards-conservatism-as-a-last-resort-to-feel-grown-up-it-wasnt-supposed-to-feel-this-way high horse, you might do some research on how I voted and why before spouting nonsense like this.

Yeah, Clive can afford the protection you can't see.

As for heading towards conservatism and a midlife crisis, I'm quite happy with how it all feels. World's good yo.

Take a step back ... we've got people brave enough to blow the whistle on the NSA. The war on Syria was averted because the House of Commons voted against it and the President of the United States of America did a deal with the Russians.

It was really bad in 2002.


Though, you know, you might not remember that kiddo.

(For the record, I'm in my late 30s now.)

 

[MaddAdam]

Who knows, but Abbott's retort "cocky" was quite clever.

Nah, that played into it.

Shorten is playing a dirty but kind of inescapable game. Smiling Buddha almost had a point in this regard.

What Abbott did beautifully was recognise the possibility that the electorate would see Gillard's minority government as "illegitimate" and as such never left full bore opposition mode in the hope of overturning it before the election was due. I maintain that if Gillard hadn't had Rudd undermining her she would have been able to handle that, but that's beside the point.

What Abbott did do though, and law of unintended consequences, is condition the electorate to a world where there's no respite, no honeymoon, nothing but relentless attack and undermining of the government of the day.

It used to be that it was "Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition". Not any more.

Shorten deploying the "oner termer" line creates a beautiful if utterly negative narrative. Anything and everything can be fed into it. The same as Abbott's "can't trust her" narrative.

But it by definition narrows the political life of the country. We can't be ruled by rotating three year governments when they spend the first year getting their feet under the desk and the last 18 months campaigning.

But the electorate sees this and reacts. This is why both major parties are leaking votes to their "core fringe". The Greens have taken Labor's Left and, as befits an ersatz party of no real ideological heft like the Libs, they shed votes to anyone and everyone, usually well organised independents. The Indi result shows us that a few smart farkers with an Internet connection and a good candidate can do anything. Windsor and Oakeshott too.

The Nats are under attack from PUP and Katter (he'll be back).

The idea we are trapped under a two party dictatorship flies in the face of all evidence.

The Australian electorate is fragmenting hugely.

 

[clogged]

Nah, that played into it.

I meant more the intended dual meaning of cocky - the impression that Shorten has a touch of the John Edwards about him.

 

[MaddAdam]

The same arguments were being made 40 years ago about whether Japan could pivot from being the counterfeiter to the innovator. And it happened quickly.

Yeah, and how's Japan gone in the last 20 years? Last I saw Abe was printing enough money to make their already amazing GDP/debt ration blow out twice again.

 

[MaddAdam]

I meant more the intended dual meaning of cocky - the impression that Shorten has a touch of the John Edwards about him.

He does in the pants department.

 

[clogged]

Yeah, and how's Japan gone in the last 20 years? Last I saw Abe was printing enough money to make their already amazing GDP/debt ration blow out twice again.

Well until China's ascendancy they were the second biggest economy in the world for over 30 years. And I don't know if you've been to Japan recently, but in spite of their sluggish economic growth it is still an amazing, hyper modern place.

You know they still sell more cars than anyone else, right?

 

[Smiling Buddha]

As for heading towards conservatism and a midlife crisis, I'm quite happy with how it all feels. World's good yo.

I'm glad to hear that. I hope you remain happy well into old age, my good man, no matter how many values you sell out on.

 

[MaddAdam]

I'm glad to hear that. I hope you remain happy well into old age, my good man, no matter how many values you sell out on.

That's presuming I had values - apart from the non negotiable NORTH MELBOURNE (and how you are going on that one little Essendon fanboi?) - to sell out.

Or any taker to buy them.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Mate I'm only stirring you. Relax a little. I think my relatively recent commitment to (and action upon) trying to help improve the world is in many ways my attempt to ensure that future SB can rationalise his position as one of the relatively wealthy in a ****ed up world by saying 'Yeah well I tried to fix the system, couldn't, so now I'm here (at least I tried)'. Chances are I will sell out too one day. Time will tell.

As for the Bombers, you realise I got rebanned from the North board last year for (ostensibly, at least) comments I directed at Lance Uppercut, right? Comments made on the North board about a serial North-troll Bomber poster got me, a guy who was at Roosistence and DBH, rebanned from the North board. Don't give me any of this Essendon fanboi nonsense.

On the ASADA board I call it as I see it, as I always do. That doesn't endear me to the powers that be. Or tribal sycophants like your good self. But it does allow me to point back old posts and say, 'See, I was right'. Better to be correct, consistent and unpopular than... well, you know where I'm going with this.

 

[MaddAdam]

Well until China's ascendancy they were the second biggest economy in the world for over 30 years. And I don't know if you've been to Japan recently, but in spite of their sluggish economic growth it is still an amazing, hyper modern place.

You know they still sell more cars than anyone else, right?

Japan is a hyper modern economy, as is South Korea.

Both are US protecorates on China's border. Taiwan too for that matter.

The Japanese are in their box.

 

[clogged]

Japan is a hyper modern economy, as is South Korea.

Both are US protecorates on China's border. Taiwan too for that matter.

The Japanese are in their box.

Never said they weren't. Just refuting your assertion that the Chinese don't have the capacity to innovate.

 

[TheKanga]

In the year 3000 we will have some incredible technology.
Just look at how far we have come since the year 1000.

Imagine if you could back to say 1800's and show them or technology.
They would probably call it magic or voodoo.

 

[MaddAdam]

NINJA EDIT

Before you edited that post you referred to me as a "tribal sycophant".

Guilty as charged. You know why? Because it is GOOD to have an unswerving tribal alliance to something as long as it doesn't hurt anyone. Thus footy. It is a primal need, especially, but not exclusive to, men. I like having an enemy like Essendon. It fun putting s**t on them no matter what the case. If they say the sky is blue, I'll say it is red. It's good to have a harmless hate.

But for real life s**t, it is never that simple. That's why unswerving political views, black and white, people are sheep etc, are weak.