Dunkley

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carltonchelsea said:
Had fun on the way into vote, took my 12 year old in to show her how our democracy kinda works.
Laughed at the libs, told Libertarian bloke he had no rights to be on a taxpayer’s footpath nor kerb, told the rest they were cute to be participating and took the Labor how to vote card and said thanks to rest for playing.
Voted, and my kid goes, “jeez dad that was pretty easy, can we get an ice cream now?”🤣
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Sounds like a terrible example for your child. well done hero.
 

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Goroyals22 said:
The teal seats are irrelevant for the most part. A swing like tonight takes 6 alp seats away and they are in a minority government which will put the liberals in the game at the next election after this one.


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  1. The Liberals are not getting a uniform swing of 4% at the next election.
  2. Minority government helps the Liberals how?
Nothing good happened for the Liberals yesterday. We got a less than standard swing against the sitting government with the Liberals first on the Ballot and Labor last (a huge advantage in a by election that no one is interested in that has barely been discussed).

And the only campaign strategy was race baiting and xenophobia.

Without Advance and the MSM the Liberals would have a primary vote in single figures.
 
Goroyals22 said:
The teal seats are irrelevant for the most part. A swing like tonight takes 6 alp seats away and they are in a minority government which will put the liberals in the game at the next election after this one.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Click to expand...

Please please please keep Dutton and ley for 2 more elections. It’s the libs best chance

Really they didn’t take this seat and lost Aston. In by elections where governments struggle? You seriously think it’s a winning strategy?
 
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QuietB said:
  1. The Liberals are not getting a uniform swing of 4% at the next election.
  2. Minority government helps the Liberals how?
Nothing good happened for the Liberals yesterday. We got a less than standard swing against the sitting government with the Liberals first on the Ballot and Labor last (a huge advantage in a by election that no one is interested in that has barely been discussed).

And the only campaign strategy was race baiting and xenophobia.

Without Advance and the MSM the Liberals would have a primary vote in single figures.
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It's like an AFL club jumping from four wins in a season to like 8-9 the next year. That's the easy part. To keep progressing to the equivalent of the top four and premiership contention, what last night's result suggests to me is that you're going to need some policies, some vision, something better than "scary brown people" to win a seat.

"Cost of living!" "Housing affordability!" OK, good... that's your equivalent of going from the wooden spoon to a semi-respectable 12th or 13th. What are you going to do about it?

I know that the period between me buying my family's house and the previous owners buying it pretty closely matches Scott Morrison's tenure as Prime Minister and its value went up by over 20% over that time. The Libs seemed a lot more preoccupied at first with bashing Labor over a broken promise than any concern over the real cost of living benefits their rework of the stage three tax cuts would have on the vast majority of Australian taxpayers, so I personally see their concern over cost of living as dubious at best.

So what else is there? I don't think fearmongering and just opposing everything is going to work for them. They need some vision and I honestly can't see it coming from Dutton.
 
Grin said:
How is the swing 3.6%? Didn't they hold the seat by 6.something% in 2022 and retain it by 5.something yesterday?
Isn't that 1.something%?
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They are talking about their primary I believe which went up because UAP and PHON didn't bother contesting the seat
 
Goroyals22 said:
The teal seats are irrelevant for the most part. A swing like tonight takes 6 alp seats away and they are in a minority government which will put the liberals in the game at the next election after this one.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Click to expand...
Swings like Dunkley aren't out of the ordinary for a by election.

They won't get a uniform swing like that elsewhere in an election.

The swing does look like it came as a result of the lack of a UAP and OAN candidate with those voters moving to LIB.
I suspect last election those UAP and OAN voters were putting LAB ahead of LIB
 

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Grin said:
How is the swing 3.6%? Didn't they hold the seat by 6.something% in 2022 and retain it by 5.something yesterday?
Isn't that 1.something%?
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Because the original margin was 12.5%

results.aec.gov.au

Dunkley, VIC - AEC Tally Room

Dunkley, VIC
results.aec.gov.au

The reference to swing required is how many percent votes are needed to come from the winning side to the losing side to change the result. Hence the reference to 6% swing needed.
 
Grin said:
How is the swing 3.6%? Didn't they hold the seat by 6.something% in 2022 and retain it by 5.something yesterday?
Isn't that 1.something%?
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I take it as you basically look at the win/loss as how far away you were from 50% (or 50.01% I suppose) of the TPP. So the ALP held it by about 6.5 after 2022 which meant it was like 56.5/43.5 in the TPP after 2022. Now it's tracking at about 52.5/47.5.
 
Achy Blakey Heart said:
Wow....that reality is a pathologically grubby thing to say.
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Hey now, the people of Dunkley did the guy a favour now he'll get to spend more time with his wife and her kid. He wouldn't have been able to do that with all the Liberal caucus late night drinking sessions in Canberra.

The first few years are really precious moments and now he wont have to miss them.
 
Crankyhawk said:
It is known she prioritises advice from her numerologist. Hence the name change.
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Wait... that's why it's Suss-an I just thought her parents were as smart as she was, I didn't realise I'd underestimated her own vapidness.
 
schneebly111 said:
Dunkley isn't Aston.

It is less educated, less culturally diverse, less NESB, slightly less professionals and non labouring workers. It is a prime target for the type of race based fear campaign that would appeal to such a demographic.

Given the ramp up, the margin Dunkley was held at prior, and the traditional swing to the opposition in a by election - I reckon LNP win tonight 51.5 2PP.
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Looks like Melbourne has again surprised me with how much it hates the LNP.

Below expected swing for a by-election despite a moderately unpopular PM and government.
 
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