Dunkley

[Demonic Ascent]

It is the danger of the circlejerk.

It works in America because voting isn't mandatory, they don't have ranked choice and the leadership of both Dems and Republicans have been swallowed so completely by the same narrow set of interests that the Democrats will just campaign on Republican malfeasance but play dead when in power. Even when the R stance is so unpopular it could kill the party, with concerted opposition.

The abortion issue is a prime example.

Preferential voting is so crucial, compulsory voting too even though sometimes I query whether some people should really have a say.

I would like to see voluntary voting increased to those 16yo+ at least those who are working (no taxation without representation right?)

 

[Forward Press]

I do enjoy Ley and co thinking it's a major victory for Dutton and the Libs - because this isn't.

Was held by the Libs for decades before Peta Murphy (albeit there have been redrawing of boundaries in that time) and despite a concerted media campaign the swing against the government was about the same as the dozens of other by-elections held in government seats - a roughly 3% or so swing which was half of what was needed to make it interesting.

The Liberal primary vote increased by less than what One Nation and Palmer had in the last election.

 

[mellowyellow]

So when is it officially Conroy's first day as the newly elected member for Dunkley?

 

[peetoo]

I do enjoy Ley and co thinking it's a major victory for Dutton and the Libs - because this isn't.

Was held by the Libs for decades before Peta Murphy (albeit there have been redrawing of boundaries in that time) and despite a concerted media campaign the swing against the government was about the same as the dozens of other by-elections held in government seats - a roughly 3% or so swing which was half of what was needed to make it interesting.

The Liberal primary vote increased by less than what One Nation and Palmer had in the last election.

Ditto Aston which they actually lost. Is it outer suburbs vibe or Victoria hating the libs vibe?

It’s good to see the lib leadership bull shipping their own for a change

 

[peetoo]

Preferential voting is so crucial, compulsory voting too even though sometimes I query whether some people should really have a say.

I would like to see voluntary voting increased to those 16yo+ at least those who are working (no taxation without representation right?)

Even 14 yo and 74 yo pay GST

 

[Millky95]

Preferential voting is so crucial, compulsory voting too even though sometimes I query whether some people should really have a say.

You'll find only those politically engaged will vote if you remove compulsory voting as well as political parties doing everything they can to stop people from voting as a way to stay in power. A lot of the problems in the US are caused because of their voting system and the more we move towards that, the more of the same problems would happen to us

 

[burge13]

You'll find only those politically engaged will vote if you remove compulsory voting as well as political parties doing everything they can to stop people from voting as a way to stay in power. A lot of the problems in the US are caused because of their voting system and the more we move towards that, the more of the same problems would happen to us

That's the case now. We only need to get a name ticked off, we don't actually need to vote

 

[matt_897]

That's the case now. We only need to get a name ticked off, we don't actually need to vote

You're still more likely to vote if you're there though

 

[Rob R]

You can't decipher a donkey vote

In some seats, we could make a pretty good guess - local booth here in Canberra had about 1% that were donkey votes. Easy to see when they vote 1 Greens, 2 UAP....

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Dont_be_a_Plonka]

I do enjoy Ley and co thinking it's a major victory for Dutton and the Libs - because this isn't.

They don't.
They know exactly what it is but are trying to spin it the other way.

That's the case now. We only need to get a name ticked off, we don't actually need to vote

Technically this isn't true.
You are required by law to vote and vote formally.
However as the law also demands your vote remain confidential and anonymous you can never be fined.

In some seats, we could make a pretty good guess - local booth here in Canberra had about 1% that were donkey votes. Easy to see when they vote 1 Greens, 2 UAP....

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

1% is probably a fair estimate but it works both ways.
Some number top down and some bottom up.
More top down tho so it might be worth maybe .8%

 

[sherb]

The cope in the sky news comment sections are great reads.

'Restrict the voting age to over 21s and taxpayers!'

'Why does Victoria have stockholme syndrome for the ALP?'

GST makes that a very broad grouping.

 

[Northalives]

I may be wrong but I don't think the AEC keep a record of donkey votes as they are formal and counted.
However I know candidates are always happy when they draw above their main opponent let alone top spot.
Definitely worth a few votes.

According to the AEC sight, there have been 3,809 informal votes. The ballot paper order was as follows:

Nathan Conroy (Liberal)
Bronwyn Currie (Animal Justice)
Chrysten Abraham (Libertarian)
Reem Yunis (Victorian Socialists)
Darren Bergwerf (Independent)
Alex Breskin (Greens)
Heath McKenzie (Australian Democrats)
Jodie Belyea (Labor)

The donkey vote therefore would have benefited Conroy and the Liberals.

 

[QuietB]

According to the AEC sight, there have been 3,809 informal votes. The ballot paper order was as follows:

Nathan Conroy (Liberal)
Bronwyn Currie (Animal Justice)
Chrysten Abraham (Libertarian)
Reem Yunis (Victorian Socialists)
Darren Bergwerf (Independent)
Alex Breskin (Greens)
Heath McKenzie (Australian Democrats)
Jodie Belyea (Labor)

The donkey vote therefore would have benefited Conroy and the Liberals.

Informality is listed at 4.2%.

It is unlikely, but it could account for the entire swing

The page cannot be found - AEC Tally Room

Tally Room Problem

tallyroom.aec.gov.au

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Informality is listed at 4.2%.

It is unlikely, but it could account for the entire swing

The page cannot be found - AEC Tally Room

Tally Room Problem

tallyroom.aec.gov.au

Informality at the 2022 election listed as 4.73% so roughly the same numbers

Dunkley, VIC - AEC Tally Room

Dunkley, VIC

results.aec.gov.au

 

[Northalives]

Yeah nah.

The number of voters in Dunkley that may have switched primary vote because of the bungled Voice, Jocobin article or an Insiders interview would have been close to zero. Is this seriously your contention as to why the Greens went at 6% in this by-election?

However, the primary vote for the Greens dropped by a similar amount to those that voted for the Socialists and Australian Democrats - two parties that did not appear on the ballot in 2022. It is not a coincidence.

You seem to have a weird bee in your bonnet about the Greens.

I was making the observation that the Greens lost 52% of their primary vote which is alarming.

I also said that votes from the Greens migrated to the Socialists and the Democrats. I put forward the proposition that maybe there are other reasons beyond the mere fact that that the Socialists and the Democrats fielded candidates. Regardless though, the fact that the Greens lost more than half of their vote ought to have the alarm bells ringing because in my experience, Greens voters are the most rusted on voters imaginable. It may well be a sign that given the opportunity to vote for the Socialists or the Democrats, the disaffected did.

Do not underestimate the angst caused to hard core Greens voters by the Greens betrayal of the Indigenous people and their supremacist, paternalistic attitude where they thought it was their place to give or withhold approval for the Uluru Statement from the Heart. The Greens had no right to pass judgement on what the vast majority Indigenous people had agreed upon and presented to Australia after a decade of discussion amongst themselves.

There were a couple of polls that suggested that around 80% of all Indigenous people supported a Voice to Parliament but the Greens insisted that not all Aboriginal people agreed with the Voice to Parliament. That is true, 20% or so didn't agree but that is a far cry from the picture painted by the supremacists, the racists, the Liberal and National parties that it was touch and go as to how many Aboriginals supported the Voice, that is, that it was marginally either side of 50-50. The Greens fed that misconception by their insistence that not all Indigenous people supported the Voice and this political game playing reenforced that lie.

If you go to the AEC website and do some research, you will see that in areas where the population is predominantly Indigenous, between 60% to upwards of 80% of Indigenous people voted yes which prompted Jacinta Price, a woman who gave up being an Aboriginal years ago to join the Colonist gravy train, she questioned the AEC staff's impartiality and said, “One thing that I do know is the way in which Indigenous people in remote communities are exploited for the purpose of somebody else’s agenda." (15/10/23 AFR). The treacherous Price accused the AEC of corruption.

What we learnt late on the night of the 14th of October, 2023, was that 60% of the Australian electorate are either dumb as s**t, racist or both and the Greens played a significant role in casting doubt upon the merits of voting for the Voice to Parliament and of course, this kind of gift to the reactionaries and the racists was too good to pass up. "If they can't agree amongst themselves, then something is wrong" : that sounds the death knell for any proposition put forward in an election of any kind.

I will never forget nor forgive those who denied the sincere wish of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders to be recognised in the Constitution through a Voice to Parliament and the Greens were as culpable for devastation and the continued denial of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander's civil rights as were the reactionaries and racists.

Maybe there are a number of people in the Dunkley electorate that feel the same way as I do?

 

[QuietB]

Informality at the 2022 election listed as 4.73% so roughly the same numbers

Dunkley, VIC - AEC Tally Room

Dunkley, VIC

results.aec.gov.au

Different ballot paper though. 2022 Labor was at 2 and Liberal at 6. Some advantage to Labor.

 

[Northalives]

Informality is listed at 4.2%.

It is unlikely, but it could account for the entire swing

The page cannot be found - AEC Tally Room

Tally Room Problem

tallyroom.aec.gov.au

Maybe, although at the 2022 election, the informal vote was higher at 4.73%

 

[Northalives]

Obviously they won't be overjoyed however my response was to a poster asking why they ran dead.

By-elections are funny beasts and I wouldn't read too much into it.

Normally I would agree but losing 52% of your primary vote? That's astonishing!

 

[QuietB]

Maybe, although at the 2022 election, the informal vote was higher at 4.73%

As noted above though, it is who benefits from those informal votes. With Liberal at 1 on the ballot this time and at 6 on the ballot in 2022 they would have scooped up a higher number of informal votes this time.

 

[Forward Press]

I was making the observation that the Greens lost 52% of their primary vote which is alarming.

I also said that votes from the Greens migrated to the Socialists and the Democrats. I put forward the proposition that maybe there are other reasons beyond the mere fact that that the Socialists and the Democrats fielded candidates. Regardless though, the fact that the Greens lost more than half of their vote ought to have the alarm bells ringing because in my experience, Greens voters are the most rusted on voters imaginable. It may well be a sign that given the opportunity to vote for the Socialists or the Democrats, the disaffected did.

Do not underestimate the angst caused to hard core Greens voters by the Greens betrayal of the Indigenous people and their supremacist, paternalistic attitude where they thought it was their place to give or withhold approval for the Uluru Statement from the Heart. The Greens had no right to pass judgement on what the vast majority Indigenous people had agreed upon and presented to Australia after a decade of discussion amongst themselves.

There were a couple of polls that suggested that around 80% of all Indigenous people supported a Voice to Parliament but the Greens insisted that not all Aboriginal people agreed with the Voice to Parliament. That is true, 20% or so didn't agree but that is a far cry from the picture painted by the supremacists, the racists, the Liberal and National parties that it was touch and go as to how many Aboriginals supported the Voice, that is, that it was marginally either side of 50-50. The Greens fed that misconception by their insistence that not all Indigenous people supported the Voice and this political game playing reenforced that lie.

If you go to the AEC website and do some research, you will see that in areas where the population is predominantly Indigenous, between 60% to upwards of 80% of Indigenous people voted yes which prompted Jacinta Price, a woman who gave up being an Aboriginal years ago to join the Colonist gravy train, she questioned the AEC staff's impartiality and said, “One thing that I do know is the way in which Indigenous people in remote communities are exploited for the purpose of somebody else’s agenda." (15/10/23 AFR). The treacherous Price accused the AEC of corruption.

What we learnt late on the night of the 14th of October, 2023, was that 60% of the Australian electorate are either dumb as s**t, racist or both and the Greens played a significant role in casting doubt upon the merits of voting for the Voice to Parliament and of course, this kind of gift to the reactionaries and the racists was too good to pass up. "If they can't agree amongst themselves, then something is wrong" : that sounds the death knell for any proposition put forward in an election of any kind.

I will never forget nor forgive those who denied the sincere wish of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders to be recognised in the Constitution through a Voice to Parliament and the Greens were as culpable for devastation and the continued denial of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander's civil rights as were the reactionaries and racists.

Maybe there are a number of people in the Dunkley electorate that feel the same way as I do?

The Voice was dead once the LNP said no. The average voter does not give two figs about your detailed analysis of Greens obfuscation during the Voice debate. And I highly, highly doubt the Voice itself was on the minds of more than about five voters in Dunkley when choosing to not vote Green. How many voters in Dunkley would have read and remembered the Australian Financial Review article from five months ago from Jacinta Price when deciding their vote?

Like I said, weird bee in your bonnet.

 

[Northalives]

AEC does measure it

Following each general election for the House of Representatives, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) undertakes an Informal Ballot Paper Study (IBPS) to analyse the levels and types of informal voting. Research based on the IBPS is fundamental to the AEC’s role in supporting electoral integrity by:

Analysis of informal voting (House of Representatives 2016 Election)

www.aec.gov.au

I can't see how the AEC could declare a ballot to be a donkey vote if someone numbers the ballot from 1 to 8 or whatever from top to bottom.

 

[Forward Press]

As noted above though, it is who benefits from those informal votes. With Liberal at 1 on the ballot this time and at 6 on the ballot in 2022 they would have scooped up a higher number of informal votes this time.

Once more, a donkey vote is a formal vote.

 

[QuietB]

I can't see how the AEC could declare a ballot to be a donkey vote if someone numbers the ballot from 1 to 8 or whatever from top to bottom.

Once more, a donkey vote is a formal vote.

What about a 1 only in the top box? That is counted as a vote.

 

[Forward Press]

What about a 1 only in the top box? That is counted as a vote.

It is not.

 

[Northalives]

As noted above though, it is who benefits from those informal votes. With Liberal at 1 on the ballot this time and at 6 on the ballot in 2022 they would have scooped up a higher number of informal votes this time.

No argument from me on that point.