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Cummins Overrated?
- Thread starter Demosthenes
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- Jun 30, 2011
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1) Rabada has played two tests in Sri Lanka??
2) It's actually 7.*
Rabada's figures are absurdly inflated by his home record. 180 wickets @ 19.1 v 107 @ 27.19 away. Cummins has 141 at 19.34 at home v 107 @ 25.81 away. Cummings also takes his away wickets more frequently. What really sets Pat apart though is his relative home record. In the list of the top 20 test wicket takers in South Africa Rabada's average of 19.1 is excellent, but it's not the best (Philander** 146 at 19.08) and there are 6 other players with averages under 22 including two with averages less than 20.
Conversely the top 20 wicket takers is Australia feature none with averages under 22 (Ray Lindwall is the best with 22.07). Australia is a bowlers graveyard but Cummins has an average fully 2.7 runs per wicket lower than anyone else. Its freakish.
* Strike rate is not a good way to compare current players to previous ones any more as test matches for most of the last generation have been much shorter in duration (with fast scoring rates to balance it) with less draws. It also creates situations like this where players from countries who frequently prepare bowling orientated tracks that maximise their home win rate (looking at you SA and India) have players with inflated home strike rates. Rabada's is 33 at home FFS. That's better than Syd Barnes. Does anyone really think Rababa is the best bowler ever??
** A good example of the advantage seamers have in SA particularly over the last 25 years or so. His away record was merely 'good' (72 wickets, at less than 3 a game, averaging 28.8) but god like at home.
I dont even see where its controversial two guys with very similar records but one does it on less helpful decks for his type of bowling we do this type of deeper dive into stats all time, we are also fine doing it all time with aussie batsmen we take into account they do their work on friendly tracks compared to others, i have no doubts if cummins and bumrah played all their home games in sa they would have even better records than they do just like if warner played all his home games in sa his home record would be worse.
Black Diamond
Sleight of Hand
Saw Cummins at Sydney airport earlier today. Massive unit when he walks past you.
Only one person went up to him, a guy probably in his 50s, and made some positive comments.
Then I went downstairs for my long train journey. He presumably went to the car park for his quick drive down the road.
I felt good that he flew Jetstar while I was on the far superior Rex.
Only one person went up to him, a guy probably in his 50s, and made some positive comments.
Then I went downstairs for my long train journey. He presumably went to the car park for his quick drive down the road.
I felt good that he flew Jetstar while I was on the far superior Rex.
- May 5, 2016
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Some pretty solid arguments and worth considering.
Remember that 5 of the 27 away tests Cummins has played have been in SA and another 11 have been in England.
A third have been in Asia.
A third of Rabada’s likewise have been in Asia too so they cancel each other out - I’ve removed Bangladesh for the purpose of this exercise as their lower batting standard probably neutralises the harder standard of their pitches.
So 16 of 27 away tests Cummins has played have been in SA or England which you would have to say gives him a good opportunity to do well; equally Rabada has had 5 tests in NZ while Cummins has never played there so he loses out there.
Rabada’s away record includes 6 tests in Australia which needs to be remembered and that includes some good opportunities for wickets like the Gabba test last time but also some real pancakes.
I do agree with your sentiment and your argument is very very well made and as I corrected myself earlier I had made an error when I said Rabada’s strike rate was 38 - it’s 39, and I was 1 off with Cummins as well.
- May 5, 2016
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That’s the thing though, doing a deep dive you can see straight away that Rabada has done better in England albeit not by a great deal and Sri Lanka for example. Cummins hasn’t played in New Zealand but if he were to have a quiet series there, you could make the claim that he does better on decks that need someone to hit the pitch, Rabada does better on decks that need someone to find the seam.
This isn’t like comparing two guys who have completely contrasting records where one makes all his runs on flat pitches and is completely impotent everywhere else, and the other guy scores runs everywhere.
Is it though? i mean elgar has awful record away from home yet you are one of those who think he is an under rated batsmen and thats due to his runs in SA purely on career stats he was a mediocre opener who was terrible away from home so isnt that you saying its much tougher for batsmen in sa than aus? if thats true then its much tougher for cummins to get wickets than rabada.
Anyway this just feels like we are going to go round in circles i think cummins is better as he gets less help for his home game decks you think rabada is better due to strike rate and somebody could argue quite fairly that bumrah is better than both as unlike cummins and rabada he never gets home decks prepared with him in mind.
- May 5, 2016
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I don’t think Elgar is underrated at all. I think he’s rated right where he should be
Bumrah has only played four tests in India. He’s done very well in them mind you but yeah he’s not really been tested much there
Cummins had 1 bad game in SL and was superfluous in the other. A smaller sample size than Rabada's in PAK/IND.
He relies on it less because his body can't sustain it. I'm dead certain that he was consistently quicker in his early 20's.
If your number 9 averages <12, your batting lineup has some issues. Even Hazlewood averages more than Rabada does, and everyone rightly sees him as a #11.
Like a lot of tailenders, he can play some sweet shots but his forward defence appears half-hearted at best, plus he pokes and prods at the ball too much. Nathan Lyon*, Stuart Clark and Ben Hilfenhaus were similar - all three could play some sweet shots, but weren't much for defending.
Pat Cummins is the opposite of Rabada - he has a pretty solid forward defence and has contributed some gritty lower-order knocks, but he often gets in trouble when trying to score quick runs.
*Which is ironic, because young Lyon was the opposite - not many scoring shots, but he could hold up an end, so he was often used as a nightwatchman.
- May 5, 2016
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He’s not. He’s their 10
He batted 9 the other night because Bavuma was injured. I’m just saying he looks stylish is all
Just making a general point about averages and batting order.
- May 5, 2016
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Fair enough
I'll tell you one area where Cummins is overrated - taking ten-fers and getting big hauls.
That he's never taken more than 10 wickets in a match, and has only done it twice, with a best of 6/23 and 10/62, is slightly disappointing for a bowler of his calibre.
In fairness, he does have to share a lot of wickets, but he isn't the sort of bowler who rips through line-ups with unplayable spells ala Steyn/Johnson/young Rabada.
That he's never taken more than 10 wickets in a match, and has only done it twice, with a best of 6/23 and 10/62, is slightly disappointing for a bowler of his calibre.
In fairness, he does have to share a lot of wickets, but he isn't the sort of bowler who rips through line-ups with unplayable spells ala Steyn/Johnson/young Rabada.
I mean Steyn only has done it 5 times, by the end of his career it is totally possible he gets close to that number. When you consider as you already pointed out he is part of a very good bowling unit I don’t think it is disappointing he hasn’t done it more.
Just curious how come NSW produce all the great fast bowlers. Glenn McGrath, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Brett Lee, Jeff Thompson, Ray Lindall, Alan Davidson and Pat Cummins. Yes NSW most populous state but insane amount of talent from there. Victoria boats Merv, Siddle Fleming??? QLD Johnson, SA Gillespie WA Lillee Tasmania Hilfenhaus.
- Jul 31, 2010
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There's probably a good argument to suggest its because if you're built the way most fast bowlers are required to be, you play Aussie Rules if you're from Vic/SA/WA. And we know basically all professional cricketers from those states are just failed footballers.
Of the 14 Australian fast bowlers to take 200 wickets, NSW has produced 7, or 50%. On a per capita basis, it's probably not a statistically significant difference, tbh.
McGrath NSW
Lillee WA
Starc NSW
Johnson QLD
Lee NSW
McDermott QLD
Gillespie SA
Cummins NSW
McKenzie WA
Hazlewood NSW
Lindwall NSW
Siddle VIC
Hughes VIC
Thomson NSW
NSW 7
Vic 2
Qld 2
WA 2
SA 1
My theory with NSW and cricket is that the alternative is rugby. While in Vic the alternative is Aussie Rules . Cricket body types are more likely to fit into Aussie Rules than Rugby. So in Vic SA WA TAS we lose cricketers to AFL while not so much cricketers to rugby. .
Hey it’s a theory.
- May 5, 2016
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I think it’s actually a good theory, lots of rugby league players play cricket but not at any elite level. Think hit and giggle fifth graders. The beer comps. Wouldn’t be anywhere near the trade off as there would be between afl and cricket I don’t think
Nearly lost Carey and Mitch Marsh to AFL. Maybe there are similar stories with rugby .. I just don’t hear them.
Brad Sheppard went the other way...was apparently a gun cricketer in his teens and might've even travelled with a development state squad from memory. Went with footy instead.
