20th AFL Team

[South of the Yarra]

100%.

They're not expected to do anything, they're not in the competition, it's all hypothetical.

Then why did you bother posting in this thread as it all hypothetical.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Really bad article by an idiot:

To those saying no to an NT team in the AFL, it’s a crock

It’s only fair that there will be an NT team in the AFL some day soon. And when you look at the reasons why, it adds up.

www.theage.com.au

Spends most of it dealing with the weakest arguments against the addition of a 20th team.

Ludicrously claims it will eradicate the unevenness of the fixture.

At no point explains why NT would be a better option than Canberra, Cairns, or anywhere else.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

Then why did you bother posting in this thread as it all hypothetical.

Because the question is, 'Should the NT be the 20th team?'

I say no.

 

[South of the Yarra]

Because the question is, 'Should the NT be the 20th team?'

I say no.

No, the question is, Which location will be the home of the 20th AFL team?

​

 

[Bjo187]

Really bad article by an idiot:

To those saying no to an NT team in the AFL, it’s a crock

It’s only fair that there will be an NT team in the AFL some day soon. And when you look at the reasons why, it adds up.

www.theage.com.au

Spends most of it dealing with the weakest arguments against the addition of a 20th team.

Ludicrously claims it will eradicate the unevenness of the fixture.

At no point explains why NT would be a better option than Canberra, Cairns, or anywhere else.

This guys a clown. Comparing Tasmania (population 570k within driving distance) to Darwin 140k, when the main reason for Tasmania's long exclusion was lack of population, shows how dumb these media buffoons really are. I honestly feel like the media are scared to say how ridiculous the idea is, because they are concerned by the thought that they might look anti indigenous.

 

[Teen Wolf]

I honestly feel like the media are scared to say how ridiculous the idea is, because they are concerned by the thought that they might look anti indigenous.

That's not what it is at all. The game people like Greg Baum play is called "criticise the AFL for whatever they do, or don't do". Even if the AFL did select NT for the 20th team, the flood of articles saying they're doing it wrong will come, as was the case with Tasmania.

At the moment, the media love to report on the "alarming drop in Indigenous recruits"...

From a high of 87 Indigenous players on AFL lists in 2020, there are now 15 fewer – a total of 72 players in season 2024.

... without any acknowledgement of the same articles written ten years ago:

The number of Indigenous players in the AFL, including rookie players, decreased from 90 in 2009 to 68 in 2014, said Dr Geoffrey Verrall, Chair of Training for the Australian College of Sports Physicians.

It's purely to make the AFL look bad.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

This guys a clown. Comparing Tasmania (population 570k within driving distance) to Darwin 140k, when the main reason for Tasmania's long exclusion was lack of population, shows how dumb these media buffoons really are. I honestly feel like the media are scared to say how ridiculous the idea is, because they are concerned by the thought that they might look anti indigenous.

Can’t read the article, will take your word for it though.

A smaller population makes it harder for that region to deliver on key infrastructure (e.g. a modern stadium and high performance centre) and ensure the AFL isn’t burdened with additional distribution funding for a new club. However, like Tassie, if a major funding partner (like a government) is prepared to underwrite the bid for a small market team and invest in a stadium, then it all becomes more viable and the small population is less of an issue.

This will be an issue with Canberra as well. They wouldn’t have a funding gap as big as an NT club, but they would still require a level of government support and a new stadium (or at the very least an upgraded Manuka). There are many advantages that Canberra has over NT, although the NT will be able to attract some funding partners that will contribute significant sums. For example, the federal government is likely to contribute plenty (especially if the PNG NRL team is anything to go by), the AFL would be more inclined to provide the NT with some additional funding beyond the base distribution (there’s no chance the AFL will do this with Canberra after only agreeing to base-level funding with Tas), also the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility has a $7b budget to fund projects to promote economic growth in NA - this was listed in the business case.

If the AFL wanted the path of least resistance for the 20th license, then WA3 would be in the box seat. Even Norwood’s bid will probably stack up financially. If they end up with multiple viable options, then they’ll probably do what they’ve always done and prioritise the club that ticks the most boxes in terms of their strategic ambitions.

The AFL’s purpose is to “progress the game, so everyone can share in its heritage and possibilities”. Colin Carter referenced this in his review of Tasmania’s business case and he essentially said that the exclusion of Tasmania shouldn’t continue if the AFL is true to its word. During his speech at the Tasmanian license announcement, Gil said the exact same thing. This makes me believe that the next license won’t go to a region that’s already represented while there are several glaring omissions from the national footprint.

 

[Coolangatta]

Can’t read the article, will take your word for it though.

A smaller population makes it harder for that region to deliver on key infrastructure (e.g. a modern stadium and high performance centre) and ensure the AFL isn’t burdened with additional distribution funding for a new club. However, like Tassie, if a major funding partner (like a government) is prepared to underwrite the bid for a small market team and invest in a stadium, then it all becomes more viable and the small population is less of an issue.

This will be an issue with Canberra as well. They wouldn’t have a funding gap as big as an NT club, but they would still require a level of government support and a new stadium (or at the very least an upgraded Manuka). There are many advantages that Canberra has over NT, although the NT will be able to attract some funding partners that will contribute significant sums. For example, the federal government is likely to contribute plenty (especially if the PNG NRL team is anything to go by), the AFL would be more inclined to provide the NT with some additional funding beyond the base distribution (there’s no chance the AFL will do this with Canberra after only agreeing to base-level funding with Tas), also the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility has a $7b budget to fund projects to promote economic growth in NA - this was listed in the business case.

If the AFL wanted the path of least resistance for the 20th license, then WA3 would be in the box seat. Even Norwood’s bid will probably stack up financially. If they end up with multiple viable options, then they’ll probably do what they’ve always done and prioritise the club that ticks the most boxes in terms of their strategic ambitions.

The AFL’s purpose is to “progress the game, so everyone can share in its heritage and possibilities”. Colin Carter referenced this in his review of Tasmania’s business case and he essentially said that the exclusion of Tasmania shouldn’t continue if the AFL is true to its word. During his speech at the Tasmanian license announcement, Gil said the exact same thing. This makes me believe that the next license won’t go to a region that’s already represented while there are several glaring omissions from the national footprint.

Yep, it'll be ACT or NT, based on the more I hear about it.

Also, check this out. https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...s/news-story/36c8489c0a69f0b066c5010a868f80f3

“There is a strong push tonight from some clubs and some playing groups that have submitted feedback to the AFL, that we need to find a way — like English soccer, where they have multiple trophies, like the US sports, where they have conference winners, or they celebrate winning seasons for coaches — we need to find a way to celebrate more players and more clubs in the game.”

I don't know about a conference system happening at 20 teams, but if there's a push from some clubs and players to have conferences, then I think it makes an AFL future with conferences and more than 20 teams possible. It would be controversial and perhaps unpopular initially, but as the old guard pass on, I think people will come around to it.

 

[Rob]

A complete misunderstanding of Aboriginal people in the area on your behalf. The number of Aboriginal kids who will not leave the NT because of clubs who are not adequately set up to cater for them, because of loss of connection to country, because in many cases a completely different language that needs to be spoken, due to the fact that their is a complete cultural transformation that needs to take place. Having an NT team would overcome so many of these issues. To many talented NT kids lost to the game.

There are a total of 14k ATSI people in Darwin and only 60k in the entire NT (a big number of which live nowhere near Darwin). The number of AFL standard players lost to the game from this population would almost certainly be single figures, probably low single figures.

Bloody expensive way of fixing a problem that's at best marginal. Be better off paying a fraction of that to bring back the NT Thunder.

 

[South of the Yarra]

There are a total of 14k ATSI people in Darwin and only 60k in the entire NT (a big number of which live nowhere near Darwin). The number of AFL standard players lost to the game from this population would almost certainly be single figures, probably low single figures.

Bloody expensive way of fixing a problem that's at best marginal. Be better off paying a fraction of that to bring back the NT Thunder.

Firstly Aboriginals are not an acronym. I can tell you of hundreds upon hundreds who have been lost to the game at elite level.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Firstly Aboriginals are not an acronym. I can tell you of hundreds upon hundreds who have been lost to the game at elite level.

There is not more than a couple of thousand active Indigenous footy players in the NT currently. To suggest that this somehow equates to hundreds upon hundreds of the elite level (considering that fractions of a single percentage point has the raw attirbutes to make it to AFL level among the country's active playing population) is ridiculous just by basic common sense.

 

[Rob]

Firstly Aboriginals are not an acronym.

They are in the census. It didn't distinguish between Aboriginal and TSI people (at least not what I was reading) so I wasn't going to guess the split.

I can tell you of hundreds upon hundreds who have been lost to the game at elite level.

Lol. Assuming you refer to the AFL as the elite level, you think hundreds of people in a subset of roughly 0.2% of the national population would be good enough to be part of the roughly 800 people in the whole country that are on an AFL list?
There's no reason to grossly exaggerate things here. Dozens is at least plausible. Hundreds is not.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Yep, it'll be ACT or NT, based on the more I hear about it.

Also, check this out. https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...s/news-story/36c8489c0a69f0b066c5010a868f80f3

“There is a strong push tonight from some clubs and some playing groups that have submitted feedback to the AFL, that we need to find a way — like English soccer, where they have multiple trophies, like the US sports, where they have conference winners, or they celebrate winning seasons for coaches — we need to find a way to celebrate more players and more clubs in the game.”

I don't know about a conference system happening at 20 teams, but if there's a push from some clubs and players to have conferences, then I think it makes an AFL future with conferences and more than 20 teams possible. It would be controversial and perhaps unpopular initially, but as the old guard pass on, I think people will come around to it.

I always thought that this would become an issue as the AFL keeps expanding. 20 clubs is a big comp, so I think there needs to be some other form of team success that can be celebrated by clubs and their supporters.

 

[Coolangatta]

I always thought that this would become an issue as the AFL keeps expanding. 20 clubs is a big comp, so I think there needs to be some other form of team success that can be celebrated by clubs and their supporters.

Yeah, there’s only two ways you can go: stop expansion, or create new pathways of celebration.

And you’d be naive to think they’ll stop expanding at 20.

They might say they’re okay with 19 now, but if teams put up well funded or viable bids, the AFL won’t ignore them.

It’s good for their bottom line.

Although, I think they are done with the Sydney market if GWS keep faltering along like they are. Doubt they’d take the risk with Newcastle, and not sure if they’d take a crack at NZ either.

I think they want to make inroads in NQ though which tells me they are pleased with the growth trajectory of the game in QLD.

 

[South of the Yarra]

They are in the census. It didn't distinguish between Aboriginal and TSI people (at least not what I was reading) so I wasn't going to guess the split.



Lol. Assuming you refer to the AFL as the elite level, you think hundreds of people in a subset of roughly 0.2% of the national population would be good enough to be part of the roughly 800 people in the whole country that are on an AFL list?
There's no reason to grossly exaggerate things here. Dozens is at least plausible. Hundreds is not.

Yes, I do think, and I do know. Also imagine if the same Junior development programs were in place. Also, re the acronym I was saying it is not nice to use an Acronym. Use either Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander. Don't group Aboriginal people as a tacky acronym.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Yes, I do think, and I do know. Also imagine if the same Junior development programs were in place.

If you sincerely believe that the only thing preventing hundreds - your words - of NT Indigenous players from making it to AFL lists is coaching and development programs one has to wonder at your grasp on anything else in society. The law of averages suggests otherwise. If it is indeed hundreds, basic law of averages suggests something that like 5-10% of any Indigenous kid in the NT that picks up a footy is good enough to make it to AFL level - which is just absolutely absurd, especially considering the raw elements that we understand make up a good football player (ie height, 85% of AFL players are taller than the national average).

 

[South of the Yarra]

If you sincerely believe that the only thing preventing hundreds - your words - of NT Indigenous players from making it to AFL lists is coaching and development programs one has to wonder at your grasp on anything else in society. The law of averages suggests otherwise. If it is indeed hundreds, basic law of averages suggests something that like 5-10% of any Indigenous kid in the NT that picks up a footy is good enough to make it to AFL level - which is just absolutely absurd, especially considering the raw elements that we understand make up a good football player (ie height, 85% of AFL players are taller than the national average).

One has to wonder about your grasp of Aboriginal people. I never said anywhere, it was only coaching and development programs. Read back the many posts before that. I know what the hinderances are. Yes, I would suggest with every opportunity being equal 5-10% would be good enough. Probably why 10% of the elite level is Aboriginal despite not that percent of the population being Aboriginal. And, I said hundreds and hundreds have been lost to the game, where did I say that was in one year.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

One has to wonder about your grasp of Aboriginal people. I never said anywhere, it was only coaching and development programs. Read back the many posts before that. I know what the hinderances are. Yes, I would suggest with every opportunity being equal 5-10% would be good enough. Probably why 10% of the elite level is Aboriginal despite not that percent of the population being Aboriginal. And, I said hundreds and hundreds have been lost to the game, where did I say that was in one year.

5-10% of remote NT indigenous population is good enough to make it to AFL level. Rightio.

Even though 800 current AFL list spots are taken up by 400,00 active male participants. 1 in 500 players. But it's 1 in 10 or 1 in 20 for NT players, for some reason.

 

[Badger17]

Your memory is incorrect. A rectangular stadium would easily fit if the road was moved. An oval stadium would be tighter, but still fit:
View attachment 1982807

That's a 130m x 160m oval, 232m x 236m stadium footprint (same as the figures given for Macquarie Point), still leaving heaps of room for a concourse and moving the road without encroaching on the park.

The effort involved for this site would logically not be deemed worthy of a rectangular stadium, as it would not alter the number of local professional teams. Hence such proposals have never got off the ground.

The effort involved for an oval stadium on this site would be necessary, however, if the objective is to add a silver bullet to Canberra's bid for at least two new professional teams (one AFL, one BBL).

Yeah I think I'll take the urban planners, architects, and engineers word for it over yours...

For one thing Mac Point would be too small for Canberra. The stadium is going to need roughly 30k seats, anything smaller would be a waste of time and money. You also haven't taken into account any of the external infrastructure needed to support a stadium, almost all of which would be required to fit on the pool site alongside the stadium in Civic, and even in your own diagram it'd be an extremely tight squeeze to fit all the lanes into the space you've left for them.

Two new teams would be irrelevant to the ROI for the ratepayer as well. It's pretty much inevitable that any major stadium in Canberra will be a white elephant unless you could convince all the tenants, both existing and hypothetical, to share a single venue, and you're simply out of touch with the realities on the ground here in Canberra if you believe that there's any realistic chance of convincing the rectangular sports to settle for an oval.

It's all academic anyway as the only way the pool site will be genuinely considered for a stadium again is if the Labour-Greens coalition is voted out or there're massive changes to the Labour party, both of which are highly unlikely to happen any time soon. The rectangular sports would almost certainly have first dibs on the site in that scenario anyway.

 

[Badger17]

Yep, it'll be ACT or NT, based on the more I hear about it.

Also, check this out. https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...s/news-story/36c8489c0a69f0b066c5010a868f80f3

“There is a strong push tonight from some clubs and some playing groups that have submitted feedback to the AFL, that we need to find a way — like English soccer, where they have multiple trophies, like the US sports, where they have conference winners, or they celebrate winning seasons for coaches — we need to find a way to celebrate more players and more clubs in the game.”

I don't know about a conference system happening at 20 teams, but if there's a push from some clubs and players to have conferences, then I think it makes an AFL future with conferences and more than 20 teams possible. It would be controversial and perhaps unpopular initially, but as the old guard pass on, I think people will come around to it.

A conference system where 9 of the teams are based in the same city and another is an hour away would be janky as hell.

 

[Badger17]

Tasmania and Team 20 are completely different circumstances.

It's crap that Tasmania had to jump through so many hoops. But the AFL didn't want to expand, and they wouldn't have if Tasmania hadn't jumped through those hoops.

But a 20th team will be sought after. Fair or not, the hoops won't be the same for Tasmania and whoever comes in as Team 20 (unless it's somewhere ridiculous like Darwin or Cairns who'll need air-conditioned stadiums).

Even if the AFL expects the 20th team to build a new stadium similar to Mac Point, which is more likely than not in my opinion and you'd definitely need a least a major upgrade here in Canberra, it doesn't change the fact that such a stadium isn't realistically feasible in Civic and we've got 16 years of debate, reports, and feasibility studies to prove it.

Manuka is a fine location that's centrally located with strong public transport links and hospitality and entertainment options literally across the road anyway. If for whatever reason a new stadium couldn't be built in Manuka then Phillip Oval in Woden is an even better location, debatably more or less as good as Civic, and there're multiple other suitable locations around the city where you could build a new stadium on top of those two.

In other words in a perfect world Civic would be great, but it isn't the be all and end all and anybody presenting it as such either isn't very familiar with Canberra or is creating an absurd false dichotomy.

 

[Seedsfan]

I dare say the NT's bid to join the AFL actually took a hit tonight. I highly doubt the Vic teams will support the entry of a team with such a big home ground advantage (against them). Two Queensland clubs in sub-tropical conditions is enough for the Vics.

The flip side is it becomes a struggle for them to win away

 

[Seedsfan]

Yeah, I can see it happening if the feds put the money in, but it's going to cost them a lot more than what a Tassie team will. There's no denying it's the popular choice. Doesn't mean it's the right or intelligent one, but it undoubtedly helps the NT bid.

But if the feds were to say no, or not put in enough money, surely it leaves them with no choice but to go with the ACT, because they are the only valid option if WA3 is out and I really do believe the AFL and WAFC don't want it and would be surprised at this point if it happens.

It would be like the feds promise to fund a league team in PNG plus danger money for the players yet turn their back on the people from Darwin

 

[Teen Wolf]

Yeah I think I'll take the urban planners, architects, and engineers word for it over yours...

For one thing Mac Point would be too small for Canberra. The stadium is going to need roughly 30k seats, anything smaller would be a waste of time and money. You also haven't taken into account any of the external infrastructure needed to support a stadium, almost all of which would be required to fit on the pool site alongside the stadium in Civic, and even in your own diagram it'd be an extremely tight squeeze to fit all the lanes into the space you've left for them.

Two new teams would be irrelevant to the ROI for the ratepayer as well. It's pretty much inevitable that any major stadium in Canberra will be a white elephant unless you could convince all the tenants, both existing and hypothetical, to share a single venue, and you're simply out of touch with the realities on the ground here in Canberra if you believe that there's any realistic chance of convincing the rectangular sports to settle for an oval.

It's all academic anyway as the only way the pool site will be genuinely considered for a stadium again is if the Labour-Greens coalition is voted out or there're massive changes to the Labour party, both of which are highly unlikely to happen any time soon. The rectangular sports would almost certainly have first dibs on the site in that scenario anyway.

Please do take their word for it. Don't lie about what they say, and don't think it won't expose the weakness of your argument.

It's well established that an oval stadium would leave enough room for the road to move, unless it's stupidly long like Kardinia Park:



And btw, whether such a stadium gets built has precisely nothing to do with the desires of the rectangular codes.

 

[Pivot Piece]

Has to be Canberra. Take the emotion and politics out of it and it is the biggest un-served market in the country without an AFL team except Newcastle, which has never even hosted a game and has next to no interest in AFL. Canberra is growing quickly and the game already has a decent supporter base who attend GWS games, you also would get access to the Riverina and you could play a game a year in an Albury or a Wagga.