List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading

[George Kramer]

I get the structural thing but surely you don’t pay an average player 800-850k just for that reason? I think Pedlar will ultimately be a much better player than Hayward in a similar position.

Pedlar should be a midfielder

 

[119others]

Those on $600K will be on $800K, those on $800K will be on $1M and those on $1M will be on $1.2M. Hayward is just getting on the queue first and supposedly Carlton offer him the same amount but less years? Sydney offer him $550K which is very strange given the significant CPA increase so are trying to low ball him and think he is only worth $450K now before the CPA increase. You always need to offer more for FA players to make them leave and not cost the club any draft capital, he is probably around a $500K player so we are offering $100K more to leave and 6 years.

I get all that but how do you know the reported 800-850k doesnt have salary cap uplifts in it?

His career stats are very average and even at 600k per year (todays dollars) doesnt seem good value (whilst understanding the need to pay overs for RFA

Has anyone seen most of his goals this year? I saw one game where 2-3 of his 4 were gimme over the top JJ style type offerings. Very different to hard leading, true crumbing etc

 

[119others]

Pedlar should be a midfielder

but where is Hayward elite - over his career? (not just contract year)

 

[Scorpus]

Would you prefer to offer Hayward $600k (and miss out) so you can try accommodate an extra $300k player like McHenry, or pay him $800k to secure him, delist McHenry and take a $100k draftee?

 

[Bearded Clam]

Depends if they can afford to match 800-850k

The Xander McGuire report says the Swans are only offering 550k, so I’d be inclined to say they wouldn’t want to match a deal 300k more

We probably just made them pay more for Guilden than they expected..

So they have less to now offer Haywood..

This is what a smart club would do… so.. its probably just a coincidence!

 

[Danger in Texas]

Would you prefer to offer Hayward $600k (and miss out) so you can try accommodate an extra $300k player like McHenry, or pay him $800k to secure him, delist McHenry and take a $100k draftee?

And then when you miss out you might need to increase Ned’s contract to hit the salary floor, which is even more depressing

 

[Bearded Clam]

Stay away from the investment world old mate

With where our list is at we need to nail EVERY single large ($ spent and/or picks outplayed) inbound player. We can’t afford to #### up a few here and materially overpay. My view on Hayward, that’s a helluva lot of $ on a player unlikely to be top 75-100 in the league consistently (would he be a top 5 player for us as Rankine and a Dawson clearly are?) when we have clearly more glaring needs and also have a somewhat similar player (leading mobile 3rd tall) also as a fait accompli joining us in this years draft.

Would rank behind any of the elite mid options (eg I would rather pay 1.25m for McC for 6 years) or use draft collateral to make a massive offer to a game changing mid. Only if bereft of all other options - Reidy should have a decent read of things shortly - do we proceed with Hayward at that price.

Aren't you glad we didn’t pick up Petty last year on 800 x 5 whilst giving up a first rounder for starters?

Not sure investing (in property/shares/etc etc) can really be compared to an AFL teams investments due to the fact there is a salary cap that requires a minimum spend..

the crows propably need to waste a few hundred thousand given the state of the list in recent years..

 

[walterhobbs]

Would you prefer to offer Hayward $600k (and miss out) so you can try accommodate an extra $300k player like McHenry, or pay him $800k to secure him, delist McHenry and take a $100k draftee?

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[Mr MysteryGuest]

Fogarty par, TT at pick 2 is below par so far as is Rachele at 6. Davis left us, but yes abd the others are yes too. Although Crouch depends on what pick you assign to him.

not sure how you could argue Rachele is below par for 3rd year player.

he's outperforming most of the players taken immediately after him. higher production than the players drafted 5-10 in 2020.

higher production than Rozee or Rankine at the same age.

 

[Redline]

For reference 800k after the cap increase would be equivalent to about $610k beforehand as a percentage of the cap (4.52%). Maybe it can be frontloaded a bit while we have extra money noting that some of our stars will be on new deals in a few years time.

Not that crazy.

I'd be shocked if guys like O'Brien's and Laird and others weren't already heavily front loaded so I think we have plenty of cap space.

 

[Bob Neil]

Not sure investing (in property/shares/etc etc) can really be compared to an AFL teams investments due to the fact there is a salary cap that requires a minimum spend..

the crows propably need to waste a few hundred thousand given the state of the list in recent years..

If we're realistic about players' market values and smart about how we contract then we should never be 'wasting' any salary cap money - instead we should simply be 'pre-paying' future year salaries in the current year to enough players in order to reach the salary cap floor. This is how you can actually then create a warchest in order to seriously attract an FA type player.

 

[bmac84]

Would you prefer to offer Hayward $600k (and miss out) so you can try accommodate an extra $300k player like McHenry, or pay him $800k to secure him, delist McHenry and take a $100k draftee?

 

[LoBu]

Aren't you glad we didn’t pick up Petty last year on 800 x 5 whilst giving up a first rounder for starters?

If we had Petty we would have won on the weekend.

We could have had Petty and Goad.

In not saying we would have been better off, but there's a lot to happen before we know what was the right pick.

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[Crows I Am]

I don’t think Rankine Dawson etc are on that coin

There’s going to be a lot of renegotiation demands if a medium talent is get big money

It might be different if he was actually good

Dawson will get a massive pay bump when he negotiates his next contract. He will likely be our first $1million player when he does recommit. Rankine wont be far off him too for his next contract either.

 

[Golumless]

He adds a lot of options to the team in terms of Rankine and Rachele. .Generally kicks 25-30 goals in an average year (this year likely to be close to 40.
Good age profile
Great club experience with Sydney

Would be a great addition


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Well that's one side of the thing. It's another goal kicker and heck, it might free Pedlar up towards a midfield move seeing we should be at the point now where its something worth exploring - especially with Laird falling out of favour in our midfield unit. Or as you say, Rankine/Rachele.

Dawson will get a massive pay bump when he negotiates his next contract. He will likely be our first $1million player when he does recommit. Rankine wont be far off him too for his next contract either.

Probably not for Dawson, seeing his next contract is when he's 29. Rankine is probably the big one who could break the 1mil mark on our list.

Thilthorpe is probably the dark horse for this if he breaks out in the back end of this year or 2025.

 

[George Kramer]

If we had Petty we would have won on the weekend.

We could have had Petty and Goad.

In not saying we would have been better off, but there's a lot to happen before we know what was the right pick.

On SM-S928B using BigFooty.com mobile app

How do you figure we had Goad in that scenario?

 

[FullyBigKPro]

I still maintain we would be one of the few clubs that would have MASSIVE coin available in the cap.

-Sloane gone
-Smith surely to retire at the end of the year.
-Tex 50/50 to play on next year and only on moderate 1 year deals as it is.
-Rach & Soligo locked away long term and likely front loaded
-Our two best players Rankine and Dawson are mid contracts and will easily retain them on increased coin when needed.
-ROB/Laird/Keays/Crouch would be all on 'moderate' to above average coin.

The vast bulk of the rest of our players are rookies/recent draftees, role players or 'emerging' players like Nank/Pedlar/Worrell/Keane etc.

Probably hardest one to value is Fogarty as he is inconsistent but seems a affable country kid who will probably prefer to stay in Adelaide (like Tex has).

You look at alot of the top sides, they would have at least 2 or 3 players on $1m+ a season deals... We are nowhere close to that.

 

[Afcprophet]

There is no basis for this given the fail rates

If a pick 1 is your best player, then he has lived up to expectations. If a pick 40 is in your best 22, then he's done better than expected. If a pick 10 isn't in your best 10 players then he has done worse than expected.

 

[1990crow]

Would you prefer to offer Hayward $600k (and miss out) so you can try accommodate an extra $300k player like McHenry, or pay him $800k to secure him, delist McHenry and take a $100k draftee?

Where does Murphy sit in this equation over the 6 years.

 

[1990crow]

I still maintain we would be one of the few clubs that would have MASSIVE coin available in the cap.

-Sloane gone
-Smith surely to retire at the end of the year.
-Tex 50/50 to play on next year and only on moderate 1 year deals as it is.
-Rach & Soligo locked away long term and likely front loaded
-Our two best players Rankine and Dawson are mid contracts and will easily retain them on increased coin when needed.
-ROB/Laird/Keays/Crouch would be all on 'moderate' to above average coin.

The vast bulk of the rest of our players are rookies/recent draftees, role players or 'emerging' players like Nank/Pedlar/Worrell/Keane etc.

Probably hardest one to value is Fogarty as he is inconsistent but seems a affable country kid who will probably prefer to stay in Adelaide (like Tex has).

You look at alot of the top sides, they would have at least 2 or 3 players on $1m+ a season deals... We are nowhere close to that.

And to be fair our next offers to ROB, Laird and Crouch will likely be much less than right now.
ROB might even get traded if we see getting a young, better ruck as the better option.

 

[BACCS]

Another week, another game where a player we overlooked has a great game against us:

Jarrod Berry - 30 disposals (15 contested), 4 marks, 5 tackles, 6 clearances and a goal.
Jordan Gallucci - Delisted

Who needs 26 year old big bodied mids though?

**** me this board is nauseating, bringing up draft misses from 2016 still when we were contending for a flag has nothing to do with the current coaching group or list build. That constant whinging is so boring.

Jarrod Berry has also been playing as a wing for a large part of his career btw and Brisbane aren't without their draft misses (ummm Rayner pick one?).

Players brought into the club since Nicks took over who are either already elite, well above average or a promising talent still early in their career (only picked guys that have actually debuted at AFL level):
Dawson - our captain, best player and an AA big bodied mid
Rankine - very close to our best player and probably AA this year, also now seeing major midfield minutes
Michellaney - takes the oppositions best small and has looked settled from game one
Thilthorpe - still only 4th season, but was more consistent in 2023 and looked primed for a breakout in 2024 before injury
Rachele - becoming a very damaging half forward/mid in just his 3rd season and is above average or elite in many key categories for the position he plays
Soligo - full time midfielder in just his 3rd season (a year before Port did the same with Butters and Rozee) and already a Showdown medallist and rivalling Dawson as our best midfielder for years to come
Curtin - elite talent, could be used almost anywhere on the ground, still a fair way to go with his development but there have been enough promising signs there is a potential elite player here
Worrell - becoming an elite intercept defender in just his 5th season and almost our most important down there (injury is a huge blow)
Keane - cost us nothing and now looks like being one of our main pillars down back for a decade
Murray - same comments as Keane
Hinge - cost us nothing and very important to our ball movement from D50 or a turnover
Keays - cost us nothing and is a very good pressure player in the F50, but an elite work rate also allows him to become a link player between the arcs; hits the scoreboard at least once or twice per game too
Pedlar - very promising 2023, slow start to 2024 but has shown signs there is a quality half forward/mid here
Schoenberg - jury still out, but has shown enough promising signs in a short career so far and has come become supremely fit since a nasty injury
Cook - jury still out, needs to find more of the ball, but does display good skills when he does actually get it
Nankervis - still very early, but enough promising signs

That is a good list of players that can build around some more senior guys (Tex, Crouch, Laird) and some just about to enter their prime drafted just before Nicks arrived (Fogarty). Ryan, Dowling and Taylor of those yet to debut could make a long term impact at AFL level. Have some decent enough depth in most positions that can play their role when needed (Himmelberg, Gollant, Burgess, Sholl, Berry, Jones, Butts, Borlase, Strachan).

Hopefully able to add someone like Hayward/Perryman/Cumming at the end of this year to push out the likes of McHenry and Murphy from regular rotations in the 22. Petty at the end of 2025 as KPP depth.

This has nothing to do with my opinions on Nicks as the coach, it's purely just the list build since he took over, which I believe is shaping up nicely for a consistent top 4 push.

 

[jackster83]

And to be fair our next offers to ROB, Laird and Crouch will likely be much less than right now.
ROB might even get traded if we see getting a young, better ruck as the better option.

Milera would be in line for a significant pay cut also.

 

[BACCS]

I'm happy to have Thilthorpe and Rachele as par at this point.

Rachele as just 'par'? Averaging 17 disposals, 1.5 clearances, 1 goal, 1 GA (20th in the comp) and 6 score involvements per game in a 80:20 forward/mid role in just his 3rd season. They are all above average or elite numbers for the role he plays. That is well above just a par level. People are really underappreciating how good this guy already is at just 21 years old.

 

[119others]

If we had Petty we would have won on the weekend.

We could have had Petty and Goad.

In not saying we would have been better off, but there's a lot to happen before we know what was the right pick.

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Perhaps re weekend result but Petty at 800 x 5 PLUS 1-2 first rounders wasn’t a smart trade (if that’s what was being discussed as widely reported). Despite Curtins growing pains and inexperience - contrary to what so many were sprouting only a few days ago about playing elite talent even earlier than 3 games in SANFL after injuries - hopefully he fulfils his undoubted long term potential. Would much rather Curtin than Petty personally

 

[119others]

And to be fair our next offers to ROB, Laird and Crouch will likely be much less than right now.
ROB might even get traded if we see getting a young, better ruck as the better option.

Niot sure ROB and Laird even get another contract do they? And ditto Crouch also!