Resource 2020 Stats thread + prior year comparisons

[RussellEbertHandball]

The Clarko too much tackling no free kicks doesn't stack up.

 

[Janus]

Nothing wrong with going backwards if it's done with purpose.

It's when players go backwards and the player who receives the ball doesn't automatically switch to the other side that it's an issue. Does my head in when a player at full back thinks they have to look around for an option. No mate, your teammate has already told you there are no options in the centre or down the wing the ball just came from, so the only place you can go is the other side - and if you get it there quick enough there HAS to be players in space.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

And the more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

[Port85]

Backwards kicking can invite any undisciplined opposition down towards the kicker and open up spaces between the zone as as as the other side of the ground.

 

[GremioPower]

Wow. That's an incredible stat.

No wonder the fans get frustrated.

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

I am not sure if that's a reason for frustration in itself. For instance, better defenses do not necessarily make a worse game. Worse kicking, however, does it.

Better defenses make kicking harder, which can give the impression that kicking have gotten worse. If that's the case, then it would be just a matter of teams readjusting their offenses to the new challenge.

As interesting as those numbers may be, I would need more info before judging whether this was due a decrease in forward quality (bad), an increase in back quality (good), or a bit of both.

-----

Just heard this guy on SEN talk about some myths and current whiggism currently going on about the game. Made a good point about the over criticizing of kicking the ball backwards. Says Port do it the most to open up the other side of the ground.

Rob Harding
Longtime AFL Opposition Analyst and Strategy Coach (Ess/Adel/Geel/NM), Vic Metro U18 Assistant Coach (Midfield), Sports lover, terrible guitarist


Points for this season Port 1st, Collingwood 5th, Geelong 2nd.

I have no problem in kicking backwards as strategy (it's common in soccer), but I don't think a mark should be paid in those cases — unless it's intercepted or inside F50. A mark should reward risk and promote moving the ball forward.

Backwards kicking can invite any undisciplined opposition down towards the kicker and open up spaces between the zone as as as the other side of the ground.

It is also a defensive strategy. The opposition cannot score without the ball. So, you keep possession defensively until the opposition makes a mistake. Then, you switch to attacking football.

That's "Guardiola 101."

 

[GremioPower]

The Clarko too much tackling no free kicks doesn't stack up.

This is a debate I have seen since I joined BigFooty. It is one of the very few points that the umpires have been mostly consistent. If the call is good or not, I don't know; but it has been fair.

At least since 2017, when the ball gets free right after a tackle, the umpires are usually calling "play on." They have been calling "illegal disposal" when there's a throw or a failed attempt to kick the ball.

 

[GremioPower]

And the more things change, the more they stay the same.

The Good Ol'Days were never as good as people tell they had been. It is not footy. It's human.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

AFL Tables - 2020 Season Records

afltables.com

Time Breakdowns
Team​	Tot	GM	Ave	Leading	%	Level	%	Behind	%

Port Adelaide...............

408m 16s​

4​

102m 4s​

343m 28s​

84.13​

30m 55s​

7.57​

33m 53s​

8.30​

 

[GremioPower]

AFL Tables - 2020 Season Records

afltables.com

Time Breakdowns
Team​	Tot	GM	Ave	Leading	%	Level	%	Behind	%

Port Adelaide...............

408m 16s​

4​

102m 4s​

343m 28s​

84.13​

30m 55s​

7.57​

33m 53s​

8.30​

Do they have "meters against" for comparison?

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Do they have "meters against" for comparison?

Not at that website. Footy Wire does but you have to manipulate the categories.

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2020

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2020.

www.footywire.com

 

[GremioPower]

Not at that website. Footy Wire does but you have to manipulate the categories.

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2020

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2020.

www.footywire.com

View attachment 904433I

It could be me, the late hour, or both, but I couldn't understand it. What am looking at?

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

It could be me, the late hour, or both, but I couldn't understand it. What am looking at?

The stats are sorted by Total for a side - Total against by all their opponents played in a season. ie its a differential stat.

MG = Metres Gained. The category I have sorted by is Metres Gained.

So for Port the stat says Total Metres Gained For - Total Metres Gained by All Opponents = 3,478m. Next best is Brisbane 613m

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

GremioPower straight total metres gained per side over 4 games. Port still 1st and Brisbane 2nd.

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2020

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2020.

www.footywire.com

 

[GremioPower]

The stats are sorted by Total for a side - Total against by all their opponents played in a season. ie its a differential stat.

MG = Metres Gained. The category I have sorted by is Metres Gained.

So for Port the stat says Total Metres Gained For - Total Metres Gained by All Opponents = 3,478m. Next best is Brisbane 613m

Hahahahaha! I totally understand what I did. You answered my question, but it had nothing to with your post. Thank you!

I had read 408m as 408 metres, not minutes.

 

[Port85]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...-is-how-theyre-winning/12431612?section=sport

Due to a tactical change at Alberton, Howard was thrown up forward at times in his last year at Port. Since moving to the Saints he's cemented his standing as one of the AFL's leading spoilers.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...-is-how-theyre-winning/12431612?section=sport

Interesting article about how Dougal Howard has helped St Kilda's defence.

Some other interesting PAFC related points include:

• Port have a lot of spoils from a high number of 1-1 contents (as opposed to the Saints who have Doogs coming over the top to help)
• Despite the horrible second quarter against the Lions, Port are bang average at scoring / conceding from centre bounces (Brisbane are pretty much the best CB team)
• Port's points per i50 (forward efficiency) has not really moved since 2019, which is incredibly concerning
• Marshall, Dixon, Gray, Ebert, Butters, are all amongst the best pressure players in the forward half (which makes sense with our game plan). Marshall and Dixon being effective in this area as key forwards is pleasing but this would be impacted by the fact the ball is in our 50 a large amount

 

[Port85]

According to the CD prospectus last year - our profligacy in front of goal cost us 3 wins and 5th spot on the ladder (if we had of been average at scoring instead of poor) when you look at the expected score (xS) based on where and how our attempts on goal are coming.

AFL Goal Kickers | Player Stats | Shot Charts | Heat Maps - Stats Insider

Dig deeper into the best and worst kicks for goal at each AFL club. Investigate every goal kicked since the start of the 2018 season.

www.statsinsider.com.au

I did a bit of digging thanks to the short charting team at Stats Insider, feeling that 7 games was just about enough of a sample size to start a year on year comparison.

Some key points:

• Thus far this year, on average we're only about -5pts down on actual vs expected score, which is not too bad.
• More importantly - if we take the xS and the actual score from each game - we've won every game we should have (based on the chances we created).
• We should have won the Carlton game by about 3 goals - which matches up with what we all saw unfolding with our own eyes in the last few minutes.
• We've increased the proportion of shots from inside 25m (so much closer to goal) by 5% compared to 2019
• These shots are coming from better positions and accuracy inside 25m has gone up a massive 11%
• Our opponents have averaged about -3pts on actual vs xS so we're probably being as lucky as we should be in terms of conceding from the opportunities we give up

So we haven't dramatically improved our accuracy overall, but it does look as though objectively we are getting in better scoring positions.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

People have been comparing 2020 to 2018. The worm is turning this year just like 2018.

Eight things we learned: Port Adelaide might not be the AFL's best side

Tom Hawkins' moment ill-discipline could cost the Cats dearly, plus more round eight lessons

www.afl.com.au

1. The numbers say Ken's got something to worry about
The Power were rightfully praised for their surge into top spot but the past month must give coach Ken Hinkley some pause for thought. Both losses, including Saturday's defeat against St Kilda, came in that period, while it took a post-siren Robbie Gray special to avoid defeat against Carlton last week.

Port's off-the-chart numbers from the first four rounds have mostly come back to earth.
Points for (86.2 to 54.8) and against (36.5 to 66.2) went in the wrong direction,
while the differentials slumped in
disposals (+51.8 to -5),
inside 50s (+22.8 to +2.2),
contested possession (+13.2 to -5.5) and
time in forward half (+13:28 to +1:46).

However, the biggest concern might be scores from clearances. They were outscoring opponents from that source by 27.5 points in the opening four rounds (ranked first) but conceded 11.8 points in the past month (ranked last).

Opponents are denying the Power's kick-and-catch game and their kick-to-handball ratio has subsequently plummeted. - Marc McGowan

From AFL Tables to see the decline in our kick-to-handball ratio
Rd 1 K 219 HB 138 D 357
Rd 2 K 226 HB 137 D 363
Rd 3 K 179 HB 95 D 274
Rd 4 K 199 HB 107 D 306
Rd 5 K 150 HB 113 D 263
Rd 6 K 189 HB 116 D 305
Rd 7 K 186 HB 120 D 309
Rd 8 K 158 HB 109 D 267

 

[GremioPower]

Our Scores by quarter (R1-R8)



The difference between first and second halves is astonishing. However, when we break the season in two parts, the story is a bit different:



We can't say this is a surprise. Our second half is still worse than the first, but not by much. We have been simply worse than the opposition overall.

In the second group of games, we seem to have been offensivelly consistent, but for Q3.

Comparing with the first group: our Q2 performance has dropped considerably; our defense has been similar in Q1 only; and our offense, in Q4 only; everything else is worse.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Our Scores by quarter (R1-R8)

View attachment 921015

The difference between first and second halves is astonishing. However, when we break the season in two parts, the story is a bit different:

View attachment 921021

We can't say this is a surprise. Our second half is still worse than the first, but not by much. We have been simply worse than the opposition overall.

In the second group of games, we seem to have been offensivelly consistent, but for Q3.

Comparing with the first group: our Q2 performance has dropped considerably; our defense has been similar in Q1 only; and our offense, in Q4 only; everything else is worse.

Rd 1 to 4 - 4 good kills, a weak GC, bottom Adelaide, 14th Freo, and bitching and moaning hubbed up WCE.

Rd 5-8 lose to Brisbane at Gabba 1 really s**t quarter, beat GWS in last quarter, couldn't put away Blues, 1 s**t quarter against Saints. In line with the stats on AFL website I posted above.

 

[Port85]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...s/news-story/9c4e7f77a0ee00f31b0a62abae47175c

"A major underachiever is Port Adelaide, which came into Round 9 third for points scored, is creating solid chances (seventh-best expected accuracy) but butchering them with by far the AFL’s worst kick rating in front of goal."

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

From the above article


At the other end of the spectrum, Brisbane is the worst for generating the easiest shots at goal. The Lions have clearly generated the most shots at goal, but have also had the hardest shots at goal with an expected accuracy of 43.8%. It’s also little wonder why they’re also ranked last for actual accuracy (40.7%).

That’s also shown in the individual rankings, with Eric Hipwood (38.9%), Hugh McCluggage (39.3%) and Lachie Neale (41.4%) ranked second, third and fifth respectively for hardest shots at goal. The Lions came into Round 9 as the AFL’s highest scoring team (572 points total) - but they were just three points ahead of St Kilda in second, and they needed an extra 33 shots on goal to get there.

Expected accuracy ladder (ie clubs creating the most valuable opportunities)

1. St Kilda - 156 shots on goal - expected accuracy 52.4%
2. Melbourne - 119 - 49.8%
3. Fremantle - 121 - 49.3%
4. Essendon - 128 - 49%
5. Richmond - 146 - 48.8%
6. Adelaide Crows - 107 - 48.5%
7. Port Adelaide - 178 - 48.3%
8. Western Bulldogs - 147 - 47.9%
9. Carlton.............. - 161 - 47.7%
10. Sydney Swans - 135 - 47.4%
11. North Melbourne - 131 - 46.9%
12. Collingwood - 142 - 45.6%
13. Geelong Cats - 161 - 45.6%
14. GWS Giants - 133 - 45.4%
15. Hawthorn - 135 - 45.1%
16. Gold Coast Suns - 154 - 44.5%
17. West Coast Eagles - 156 - 43.7%
18. Brisbane Lions - 189 - 43.3%
All numbers accurate before the start of Round 9

BUT WHICH CLUBS ARE TAKING THEIR CHANCES?

The Saints are scoring so well because they’re both creating high-value shots on goal and converting them - they’ve been expected to kick goals on 52.4 per cent of their shots, and have converted 53.8 per cent of them. But there are teams at either end of the spectrum that are either underachieving, because they can’t kick straight, or overachieving, because accuracy from their forwards is making up for their poor opportunities.

A major underachiever is Port Adelaide, which came into Round 9 third for points scored, is creating solid chances (seventh-best expected accuracy) but butchering them with by far the AFL’s worst kick rating in front of goal.

Then there’s GWS, who sit 14th for expected accuracy (45.4 per cent) but seventh for points scored. That’s because they’re kicking straight 54.1 per cent of the time - that gap of 8.7 per cent is by far the AFL’s best.

Kick rating for shots on goal (positive kick rating = more accurate than expected)

1. GWS Giants - 45.4% expected accuracy - 54.1% actual accuracy - Kick rating +8.7%
2. West Coast Eagles - 43.7% - 49.4% - +5.7%
3. Gold Coast Suns - 44.5% - 48.1% - +3.6%
4. Geelong Cats - 45.6% - 48.4% - +2.9%
5. Carlton - 47.7% - 49.7% - +2.0%
6. Hawthorn - 45.1% - 46.7% - +1.5%
7. St Kilda - 52.4% - 53.8% - +1.4%
8. Collingwood - 45.6% - 46.5% - +0.9%
9. Adelaide Crows - 48.5% - 48.6% - +0.1%
10. Sydney Swans - 47.4% - 46.7% - -0.7%
11. Melbourne - 49.8% - 48.7% - -1.0%
12. Essendon - 49.0% - 47.7% - -1.3%
13. Fremantle - 49.3% - 47.9% - -1.3%
14. Western Bulldogs - 47.9% - 45.6% - -2.3%
15. Brisbane Lions - 43.3% - 40.7% - -2.6%
16. North Melbourne - 46.9% - 44.3% - -2.7%
17. Richmond - 48.8% - 45.9% - -3.0%
18. Port Adelaide - 48.3% expected accuracy - 43.3% actual accuracy - Kick rating -5.0%
All numbers accurate before the start of Round 9

Need the AFL app to get the scoring shot numbers. These include shots on goals that don't score anything because kick doesn't make the distance, goes out on the full, oppo take a mark from kick etc. So scoring efficiency includes shots on goal that don't score anything.

Scoring Shots from the totals from the app gives 185, above list says 178.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Plenty of accurate goal kicking in 2020 of historical levels. When are we going to join the club??

Sure shorter quarters mean less time to stuff up but not so that historic levels are reached. Maybe because players can't train in groups and aren't running as much, they might actually be practicing set shots on goal.

St Kilda have also kicked 14.4 for 77.78% and North kicked 19.5 = 79.17 against the crows after being 12.1 just before 3/4 time and these are inside the best 150 conversion rates over 120 years.

Essendon have kicked 10.3 and North 9.3 for 76.9% and 75% conversion. 75% is equal 273rd conversion rate in over 12,800 games played. See full list at;

https://australianfootball.com/leagues/accurate_scoring/AFL/138/Premiership+Season/1

 

[Janus]

Good time to look at what we're doing well at and what isn't so good.

Leading the competition in...

Tackles per game
Inside 50s per game
Least opponent points per game
Contested possessions per game
Contested marks per game
One percenters per game
Score involvements per game
Team to opponent points per game differential
Team to opponent tackles per game differential
Team to opponent inside 50s per game differential
Team to opponent goal assists per game differential
Team to opponent contested marks per game differential
Team to opponent marks inside 50 per game differential
Team to opponent score involvements per game differential
Team to opponent meters gained per game differential
Team to opponent tackles inside 50 per game differential

Top four for...

Kicks per game (4th)
Disposals per game (2nd)
Points per game (3rd)
Goal assists per game (2nd)
Clearances per game (2nd)
Uncontested possessions per game (4th)
Effective disposals per game (2nd)
Disposal efficiency per game (2nd)
Marks inside 50 per game (2nd)
Centre clearances per game (4th)
Stoppage clearances per game (2nd)
Meters gained per game (3rd)
Tackles inside 50 per game (2nd)
Least opponent kicks per game (2nd)
Least opponent disposals per game (3rd)
Least opponent marks per game (2nd)
Least opponent inside 50s per game (2nd)
Least opponent uncontested possessions per game (2nd)
Least opponent effective disposals per game (2nd)
Least opponent marks inside 50 per game (2nd)
Least opponent centre clearances per game (4th)
Least opponent score involvements per game (3rd)
Least opponent meters gained per game (3rd)
Least opponent tackles inside 50 per game (2nd)
Team to opponent kicks per game differential (3rd)
Team to opponent disposals per game differential (3rd)
Team to opponent marks per game differential (3rd)
Team to opponent clearances per game differential (4th)
Team to opponent contested possessions per game differential (4th)
Team to opponent uncontested possessions per game differential (2nd)
Team to opponent effective disposals per game differential (2nd)
Team to opponent one percenters per game differential (3rd)
Team to opponent centre clearances per game differential (2nd)
Team to opponent intercepts per game differential (3rd)

Top eight for...

Intercepts per game (8th)

Bottom six for...

Clangers per game (12th)
Least opponent hitouts per game (12th)
Least opponent clangers per game (12th)
Least opponent contested possessions per game (12th)
Least opponent stoppage clearances per game (12th)
Team to opponent clangers per game differential (13th)

Bottom four for...

Rebound 50s per game (17th)
Team to opponent turnovers per game differential (16th)
Opponent disposal efficiency (16th)
Opponent effective disposals (17th)

Worst in the competition for...

Team to opponent rebound 50s per game

 

[Palpatine_Power]

If any of you stats nerds are into creating your own data, here is a free app developed by one of the guys who did analytics for EFC.

 

[shewho]

Good time to look at what we're doing well at and what isn't so good.

Leading the competition in...

Tackles per game
Inside 50s per game
Least opponent points per game
Contested possessions per game
Contested marks per game
One percenters per game
Score involvements per game
Team to opponent points per game differential
Team to opponent tackles per game differential
Team to opponent inside 50s per game differential
Team to opponent goal assists per game differential
Team to opponent contested marks per game differential
Team to opponent marks inside 50 per game differential
Team to opponent score involvements per game differential
Team to opponent meters gained per game differential
Team to opponent tackles inside 50 per game differential

Top four for...

Kicks per game (4th)
Disposals per game (2nd)
Points per game (3rd)
Goal assists per game (2nd)
Clearances per game (2nd)
Uncontested possessions per game (4th)
Effective disposals per game (2nd)
Disposal efficiency per game (2nd)
Marks inside 50 per game (2nd)
Centre clearances per game (4th)
Stoppage clearances per game (2nd)
Meters gained per game (3rd)
Tackles inside 50 per game (2nd)
Least opponent kicks per game (2nd)
Least opponent disposals per game (3rd)
Least opponent marks per game (2nd)
Least opponent inside 50s per game (2nd)
Least opponent uncontested possessions per game (2nd)
Least opponent effective disposals per game (2nd)
Least opponent marks inside 50 per game (2nd)
Least opponent centre clearances per game (4th)
Least opponent score involvements per game (3rd)
Least opponent meters gained per game (3rd)
Least opponent tackles inside 50 per game (2nd)
Team to opponent kicks per game differential (3rd)
Team to opponent disposals per game differential (3rd)
Team to opponent marks per game differential (3rd)
Team to opponent clearances per game differential (4th)
Team to opponent contested possessions per game differential (4th)
Team to opponent uncontested possessions per game differential (2nd)
Team to opponent effective disposals per game differential (2nd)
Team to opponent one percenters per game differential (3rd)
Team to opponent centre clearances per game differential (2nd)
Team to opponent intercepts per game differential (3rd)

Top eight for...

Intercepts per game (8th)

Bottom six for...

Clangers per game (12th)
Least opponent hitouts per game (12th)
Least opponent clangers per game (12th)
Least opponent contested possessions per game (12th)
Least opponent stoppage clearances per game (12th)
Team to opponent clangers per game differential (13th)

Bottom four for...

Rebound 50s per game (17th)
Team to opponent turnovers per game differential (16th)
Opponent disposal efficiency (16th)
Opponent effective disposals (17th)

Worst in the competition for...

Team to opponent rebound 50s per game

On the Couch did a premiership profile check and we missed out. To have a premiership profile you need to be top 5 in 3 of 5 key categories:

1 Points from turnover differential
2 Points from forward half
3 Points from back half
4 Opposition scores per inside 50
5 Post clearance contested possession differential.

We only got a tick for 5. Does anyone know how far off top 4 in 1,2,3 and 4 we are? Janus?