Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Given it is likely Essendon will select Weideman with one of their picks, who do you think is the more likely we take with our other first rounder out of Francis, Milera and Oliver?
Francis has most talent from that group from what I've seen, but why is he sliding all of a sudden?
Landsberger also seems to think we are into Milera, whereas Oliver fits a need the most out of the 3

Plausibly Parish if there could be that other selection for Essendon. If Parish isn't there Milera and Oliver have been the two more strongly linked to Essendon.

Francis I've found inconsistent in his play and his SANFL League form post- u18 championships to be disappointing and unimpressive overall.

I have a question about your draft rankings. I was updating my big board the other day, and not much changed really - I think Cuningham was a late riser, and I finally came around to Harry McKay. But that was pretty much it. Given we're only two weeks out from the draft, I figure things would be fairly set. But your personal rankings still seem quite fluid?

For example, in your last three updates...Ryan Burton has gone from 30, to 44 and back to 25. Darcy Tucker from 32, to 50 and then 26. Chris Jansen dropped from 27 to 45 overnight. What is it that sees such change so late in the piece?

The ratings of those who I don't rate as probable to have an AFL career are always those who will move around the most. And that's the story of those I rate outside the top roughly 20 where any of those guys 20-50 could plausibly make it, but I'm just not betting on them. And my feelings and preferences will swing with it.

 

[Glenny83]

Hey KM,
Can I ask why you have Tom Cole above Mitchell Hibberd? I see it's only a couple of picks, but Tom Colehas really moved up dramatically.

 

[Hellgood]

43. Sam Menegola (WA – MID/FWD)
Height: 188cm, Weight: 90kg, DOB: 07/03/1992
Recruited from: Subiaco
Reminds me of: Tom Bell
Brief bio: Menegola has had a few AFL opportunities previously having been rookie listed by Hawthorn and Fremantle where he was at the time an endurance running freak without much game, but he has this year really come into his own developing into a big bodied midfielder with some great size on his frame who can win the ball and find it in bunches and also provide meaningful scoreboard impact with 21 goals from 14 games. His skillset and decision making ability have also improved with time and are now of sufficient standard for AFL play.

Could you please explain how you see Menegola as being similar to Bell? Body shapes and style of play are vastly different in my opinion.

 

[doona]

I've got my profile up on page one of Adams now. Let me know if there is any further specific insight you would like into his game. In terms of where he fits, he is among a group of good state league defenders with Michael Hartley and Mitch Brown in that same conversation as two other key defenders I view as worthwhile recruiting choices

That write up answered my questions, cheers!!

Derickx I don't see the point of retaining

Derickx would have been delisted if he didnt have a year to run on his contract, with our salary cap we cant pay it out. I dare say he wont get a look in this year or even play ruck in the ressies.

In terms of Nyuon who is a project ruckman. Late draft this year Nyuon is a type where if clubs aren't liking the options later in the draft, Nyuon could be seen as someone with scope to develop and it will just come down to views from club to club. And a club may see some value with his running vertical equal to that of Nic Nat.

Keeping that in mind Nyuon will take a good four years before he has a shot at being AFL relevant so I don't see his being added as clashing in any way with the current ruck stocks. In saying that Sydney could go any number of ways and would probably prefer an outside linebreaker if they have a player in mind. But clubs aren't always so strong on filling list needs and sometimes will look to value when someone they like presents, and my drafts will always reflect that.

Cheers that was some good insight into what Sydney might do, and I agree with taking the best player/value that late in the draft and I do like the idea of late drafting project ruckman. One part that gets me worried is that Naismith just signed a new 3 year deal and with Nankervis, how much time Nyuon would actually get to play in the ruck in the magoo's.

 

[Suma Magic]

Hi KM - most open (difficult to predict) draft in a while (even after excluding Academy bidding)?

 

[TheFrenchCut]

Hi KM, I was wondering what you think it is that seems to hold David Cunningham back from more prolific (disposal-wise) games. Is it purely a balance between inside and outside issue, does he not always get a full game in the middle, or is it simply endurance?

Cheers.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,
Can I ask why you have Tom Cole above Mitchell Hibberd? I see it's only a couple of picks, but Tom Colehas really moved up dramatically.

Cole is younger but just as productive and just as versatile.

Could you please explain how you see Menegola as being similar to Bell? Body shapes and style of play are vastly different in my opinion.

Both tallish mids with big bodies (Bell bigger mind you), both by position are elite endurance runners, both can provide scoreboard impact.

Who do you like as a comparison for Menegola?

Hi KM - most open (difficult to predict) draft in a while (even after excluding Academy bidding)?

This year is probably the harder year to predict as after around pick 20 there will be great variation from club to club in who they like. Usually that number is 30 or in stronger drafts 40.

Hi KM, I was wondering what you think it is that seems to hold David Cunningham back from more prolific (disposal-wise) games. Is it purely a balance between inside and outside issue, does he not always get a full game in the middle, or is it simply endurance?

Cheers.

Endurance is fine. With Cuningham he isn't a dominant contested ball winner firstly, so that doesn't help, he wins some of his own ball without making a living off it. On the outside similarly he can find some ball but is only a mild accumulator and doesn't find as much easy ball on the outside either as others have proven. So with neither side of his game up to such a high standard, his numbers are relatively lower than some of the similar rated midfielders in this draft.

 

[x_les_x]

Are tom philiips/glen outside/wing type players?

 

[Knightmare]

Are tom philiips/glen outside/wing type players?

Phillips can be a bit of anything. Outside/inside/flanker.

T.Glen is best suited as a backman.

 

[Hellgood]

Both tallish mids with big bodies (Bell bigger mind you), both by position are elite endurance runners, both can provide scoreboard impact.

Who do you like as a comparison for Menegola?

Good question and one I've thought about a bit without coming up with a comparison I'm happy with. I see Bell as a lot more nuggety and a considerably better tackler/bullocker whereas with Menegola he may have put on the size, but those things aren't particularly natural to him.

I think Menegola will be used in the AFL in a way that predominantly focuses on what his original strengths were - running and linking up on the outside. Agree he's made some impressive strides in developing his inside work but I don't think it's improved to the extent where it will be his primary asset out on the ground. I suppose Brad Ebert would be a reasonable comparison in that regard - decent size, capable inside, but the best attribute he brings to the side is through his gut running and ability to create options out wide. Haven't looked at the stats so could be wrong in my perception here, but (certainly in his early days) Ebert can have a scoreboard impact as well.

 

[redandblack]

KM, IIRC, Francis only played a few SANFL games after the championships and his form was fine. He missed most games through injury and other factors. If he'd been available for the finals he would have been in West's best 21 easily and they were premiers.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Good question and one I've thought about a bit without coming up with a comparison I'm happy with. I see Bell as a lot more nuggety and a considerably better tackler/bullocker whereas with Menegola he may have put on the size, but those things aren't particularly natural to him.

I think Menegola will be used in the AFL in a way that predominantly focuses on what his original strengths were - running and linking up on the outside. Agree he's made some impressive strides in developing his inside work but I don't think it's improved to the extent where it will be his primary asset out on the ground. I suppose Brad Ebert would be a reasonable comparison in that regard - decent size, capable inside, but the best attribute he brings to the side is through his gut running and ability to create options out wide. Haven't looked at the stats so could be wrong in my perception here, but (certainly in his early days) Ebert can have a scoreboard impact as well.

Menegola inside game and his quality clearances where he has changed his game the most.
His clearances are generally quality what i like is he gets first possession and gets mugged but because
of his size and positioning still gets of a quality clearance.
That's a trait at afl level will stand him in good stead.
Matty Priddis get the most first possessions in the AFL but regular coughs it
up under intense pressure, because he is targeted. This is something I think Menegola can be good at,
because he uses his size well and has good agility, and will asorb the pressure
and get of a quality clearance.

 

[Bananabender]

Good morning KM. Are the player measurements from the Draft Combine available. I've been having a discussion about the real heights of one or two players who appear to have grown since measurements were taken at the start of the year for the TAC Cup Record.

 

[markm106]

Hi KM. Any ruck prospects Melbourne could pick up with one of thier later picks.

 

[Yabadoo22]

Hey km
Interesting to see you have tucker going to carlton at pick 14. What's with him shooting up the order all of a sudden? Also Tom cole to the crows stood out to me, do you see him developing into a mid or a pure flanker? I think out of the first round Harley Balic is the most intriguing, could be taken as early as around 10 but could drop to 20, am I right in saying that

 

[McCraeBF]

Just looked at what you have the Dogs taking...I will party for a week if we got
1.Burton -Perfect compliment to Boyd and Stringer
2.Bonner-Perfect wingman with amazing left foot
3.Glass-McCaster would fit straight into CHB with Cordy
4.Moore-Got a feeling he is going to flourish at an AFL Club could even play back...

God I hope your right..

 

[deano the hawka]

Hey KM, I know it has been mentioned before but I can't find the list of classifications of midfielders (i.e. High production) and their respective meanings. Could you please clarify these categories for me?

 

[Milanista28]

Hey KM, Would be interesting to see your first phantom draft and compare it to what you have now and give a reason for why players have jumped and dropped.

 

[snooplions]

Any chance of Matthew Uebergang being drafted this year?

 

[Knightmare]

Good morning KM. Are the player measurements from the Draft Combine available. I've been having a discussion about the real heights of one or two players who appear to have grown since measurements were taken at the start of the year for the TAC Cup Record.

There will be draft combine measurements around somewhere, I'm just not so lucky this year to have been sent the excel spreadsheet with the complete measurements and testing results.

Hi KM. Any ruck prospects Melbourne could pick up with one of thier later picks.

Andre Parrella is a big ruckman from SA who should be available late/rookie.

Gach Nyuon plausible though with no certainty may be available late draft.

Matthew Flynn unless GWS nominate him probable is available late draft.

They'll be among the more popular names of this years group.

Hey km
Interesting to see you have tucker going to carlton at pick 14. What's with him shooting up the order all of a sudden? Also Tom cole to the crows stood out to me, do you see him developing into a mid or a pure flanker? I think out of the first round Harley Balic is the most intriguing, could be taken as early as around 10 but could drop to 20, am I right in saying that

Tucker has long been seen as probable to feature in the teens on draft day. I've only moved him up from the mid-late teens which is just part of a draft order shuffle.

With Cole his best position is unclear and I suspect he'll develop into more of a utility. He has been compared (not that he is nearly as good) to Shaun Burgoyne and I like that comparison from the standpoint that I can see Cole playing that range of positions without needing to play a particular position all the time.

Balic probably goes in the teens. There is variation in views of his game and 10-20 is his narrowed down probable draft range. I'd more so be inclined to talk about a Ryan Clarke as having a wider draft range, or maybe a Kieran Lovell, Luke Partington, Mitch Hibberd, Jade Gresham. Those guys to me feel like they could really go anywhere from 15 and beyond.

Hey KM, I know it has been mentioned before but I can't find the list of classifications of midfielders (i.e. High production) and their respective meanings. Could you please clarify these categories for me?

They're simply broad generic statements to give people a feel in a few words what some of these players offer. I've mostly had it there given only a few days ago I completed my top 50 draft profiles and I simply don't have the time to go into greater depth on so many players, or even as much depth as I'd like this year on many that I view as draftable.

Any chance of Matthew Uebergang being drafted this year?

Uebergang is a chance late/rookie and has some fans having improved this season switching into the back half, but probably against the odds.

 

[Prem17]

The heraldsun reported that Silvagni and Bolton flew to Adelaide to interview Burton, so in that case if he is still available at Carlton's pick 19 (original pick number), then I can't see them passing on him.
Seems a strange selection to me though because he is a similar size and type to Jack Silvagni, although a bit stockier at this stage.
Both have plenty of potential for different reasons - Burton having missed games due to injury and Silvagni only new to the system. They will both probably miss most of the first half of next season while they build up strength and fitness.
Burton is supposed to be very talented but I think we would be better off with a mid if the McKay twins, Weideman, Curnow, Collins, etc are gone at our respective picks.

 

[Knightmare]

The heraldsun reported that Silvagni and Bolton flew to Adelaide to interview Burton, so in that case if he is still available at Carlton's pick 19 (original pick number), then I can't see them passing on him.
Seems a strange selection to me though because he is a similar size and type to Jack Silvagni, although a bit stockier at this stage.
Both have plenty of potential for different reasons - Burton having missed games due to injury and Silvagni only new to the system. They will both probably miss most of the first half of next season while they build up strength and fitness.
Burton is supposed to be very talented but I think we would be better off with a mid if the McKay twins, Weideman, Curnow, Collins, etc are gone at our respective picks.

With Burton there are several views as to how he could develop. And it's the same story with Silvagni.

Burton could be a medium forward, key forward, midfielder or plausibly given his clean footskills a backmen to some not that I'm aware of him playing back at any point.

Silvagni is more a deep forward or deep back. Maybe a key position or 3rd tall.

Burton, Silvagni and Plowman all as kind of undersized key position players is an uncomfortable mix to me, but that may well be what Carlton have planned.

 

[mrb1]

Burton, Silvagni and Plowman all as kind of undersized key position players is an uncomfortable mix to me, but that may well be what Carlton have planned.

You need guys that can play. Jack Gunston is 193. Josh Gibson is 189. Both have found roles.

 

[jpsmith]

do you have the older versions of your 2015 phantom draft from earlier on in the year?

 

[Knightmare]

do you have the older versions of your 2015 phantom draft from earlier on in the year?

I've this year just continued updating the same thread. So no.

I believe Chris25 posted my original power rankings about a month ago (to guess).

Nate Dennis and Will Combe are two from memory I rated inside my top 10 coming into the season and neither look likely to get selected.

On the other side of things Ryan Clarke, the McKay boys, M.Kennedy, Hibberd and Clayton Oliver are among those coming into the year who wouldn't have featured at all on my power rankings.

The basics are a year on, it's a different draft and my evaluations are vastly different as I've had my focus on them as opposed to having vague understandings of some of their games coming into the season.