Prediction Your Essendon 2025 season predictions. Right or Left field.

[Runk]

Pretty realistic predictions.

Yeah I'm not much of a gambler

 

[thebigboy]

The Hawks are the exception though - there are always anomalies. I wouldn't predict 2025 to be a year we improve given the way we seem to be going with the list. The majority of posters had us winning a final in 2024 - supporters always overrate their own.

In the 18 team era, on average 3 teams per year make the finals after missing it the year prior, so it's common to an extent and big jumps have not just been limited to Hawthorn last year, see Collingwood 2021-22 as another example. We also won 11 games last year, so the tasks aren't as significant as that.

From a list perspective, replacing Stringer's 40+ goals is going to be a challenge, however, he brought significant deficiencies to our forward-line structure that we all have lived with for the last 4 years. With Kelly & Heppell, it's very difficult to argue that they are going to be hard holes to fill based on the tape they've put out there over the last few seasons. It's a popular narrative that our list is worse, but I just simply don't agree.

 

[bombreys]

Last season we deemed an AA wing not good enough to play AFL and gave him away for a late pick. So don’t think that means much.

If we compare this years likely starting team to the team that finished last season.

McGrath McKay Ridley
Redman Reid Sheil
Martin Merrett Dursma
Bryan Durham Caldwell
Kako Caddy Perkins
Langford Draper Gresham
Ic Roberts, Parish, Tsatas, Jones


OUT: laverde, Heppell, Kelly, Stringer Guelfi
In: Reid Ridley Dursma Tsatas Kako

That’s 20% of the team including adding 3 top 10 picks and 1 AA defender:

adding health alongside Saad, Prior and Kako helps our transition immensely and that’s before having hope for Clarke, Johnson, Unwin, Nguyen who as first year outside players are potentially capable of playing their roles at AFL level if needed.

We have decent tall depth and no longer have to try and fit stringer into a side where he doesn’t work.

To be fair, you said all of this stuff last preseason. And we finished the exact same position as the year before - 11th. Yes, that team on paper looks better - but every team looks good on paper, at full strength. By Round 1, we'll have a few injuries - as will 17 other teams. No team is ever really at full strength.

You're leaving out important info - of the three top ten picks you mention, Reid is averaging 2.25 games a year, Tsatas has so far been deemed not good enough for AFL level and Kako has obviously never played a game. We're not talking about 3 top 10 picks coming off 3 unbelievable games the last Round of 2024.

Any fan of any team in the comp can do as you've done above and list a team at full strength, list the players they've drafted that year and say 'look how good we're going to be'.

Not wanting to be a killjoy, but the same things get said every year. This is not the year for us to try and advance up the ladder, especially after how 2023 & 2024 went.

 

[bombreys]

Any improvement will have to be internal development. Young players being better and another small step in game plan. That is why this year is a mystery. Of course a few less injuries to top end players would help.

Fully fit Ridley / Reid / Parish / Langford (full season) will help.

I know it is January but having had a first hand look at Tsatas in match sim he looks to have taken a step forward.

Kako will have an impact as far as forward pressure goes based on what I have seen.

Davey is further advanced from last year.

The theme the coaches are really hammering in all drills and match sim is set up the ground. Once the ball has moved on players have to set up defensively. It is a constant.
Just looking at match sim it is a higher temp ball movement with McGrath / Shiel / Merrett / Redman all taking some of the role Martin had .

So yeah. Not much improvement personal wise so it will be a work in progress based on player advancement and a step up in game style.

For sure - and depends what your idea of 'improvement' is, I suppose. If we move up the ladder, great - if we finish 14th, don't get pumped by over ~40 points at any stage and find a few younger guys to become solid best 22 players for the future, that would be even better, in my opinion.

 

[bombreys]

In the 18 team era, on average 3 teams per year make the finals after missing it the year prior, so it's common to an extent and big jumps have not just been limited to Hawthorn last year, see Collingwood 2021-22 as another example. We also won 11 games last year, so the tasks aren't as significant as that.

From a list perspective, replacing Stringer's 40+ goals is going to be a challenge, however, he brought significant deficiencies to our forward-line structure that we all have lived with for the last 4 years. With Kelly & Heppell, it's very difficult to argue that they are going to be hard holes to fill based on the tape they've put out there over the last few seasons. It's a popular narrative that our list is worse, but I just simply don't agree.

It's fairly uncommon for teams who've been hanging around the middle of the ladder to make a big jump - see us, see St Kilda.

I don't necessary think the list is 'worse' - it is younger though, and younger sides (very generally speaking) tend to lose. I would much rather target 2028 as the year to jump up the ladder. I see little to no benefit in scraping into the finals in 2025 - Brisbane finished 5th in 2024 - imagine how we'd go against the Lions up at the Gabba with our current group.

 

[thebigboy]

It's fairly uncommon for teams who've been hanging around the middle of the ladder to make a big jump - see us, see St Kilda.

I don't necessary think the list is 'worse' - it is younger though, and younger sides (very generally speaking) tend to lose. I would much rather target 2028 as the year to jump up the ladder. I see little to no benefit in scraping into the finals in 2025 - Brisbane finished 5th in 2024 - imagine how we'd go against the Lions up at the Gabba with our current group.

Based on that, what would you want us to do with 2025, 2026 & 2027?

If we'd played Brisbane, we'd have gotten flogged like Carlton did, no question about it. Remember, at no point have I said we will make Top 4, or win multiple finals, all I've said is my prediction, for the grain of salt that its worth, is that we'll play finals and improve on 2 areas that let us down last year.

 

[jdstorm]

To be fair, you said all of this stuff last preseason. And we finished the exact same position as the year before - 11th. Yes, that team on paper looks better - but every team looks good on paper, at full strength. By Round 1, we'll have a few injuries - as will 17 other teams. No team is ever really at full strength.

You're leaving out important info - of the three top ten picks you mention, Reid is averaging 2.25 games a year, Tsatas has so far been deemed not good enough for AFL level and Kako has obviously never played a game. We're not talking about 3 top 10 picks coming off 3 unbelievable games the last Round of 2024.

Any fan of any team in the comp can do as you've done above and list a team at full strength, list the players they've drafted that year and say 'look how good we're going to be'.

Not wanting to be a killjoy, but the same things get said every year. This is not the year for us to try and advance up the ladder, especially after how 2023 & 2024 went.

I think skepticism is warranted with this group and finishing bottom 4 is a realistic outcome.

It’s also fair to acknowledge that compared to the team that started last season we are likely to have 7/8 different players in the best 22 and or in different roles compared to the team that started last season.

Also 4 changes from the team that finished the final game of last season. An almost 20% difference in team composition is a significant change.

We’ve added 6 outside players and had a nice surprise from Roberts and those players are typically ready to contribute year 1.

Our 3 biggest issues last year were forward pressure, transition attack and strength at the contest. These 6 new players help address two of those