Who will be closer to playing in finals end of 2016 season? Lions, StK or Melbourne

[M Malice]

lions. have the best midfield of the 3 at the moment, beams, rockliff, hanley, bastinac, robinson, rich, zorko. if josh walker and daniel merrett can remain injury free i think lions will be a lot better this year than most people think.
2. st kilda
3. melbourne
in 3 or 4 years time i think it will probably be a lot different, unless lions and saints youngsters turn out to be better than projected at the moment.
1. melbourne
2. st. kilda
3. lions

purely from a bias view point, i have seen a lot of the lions young talent over the years and i rate their current young players ie. andrews, dawson, mayes, gardner, cutler, freeman and with schache, hipwood and keays nearly certain this year and 2 projected top 5 draft picks from the academy in allison and ballenden coming through in the next 2 drafts i think the talent is there for the lions to be a very good side in the future.
saying that i watch very little football of other teams near the bottom of the ladder.

 

[Sprout]

We don't have an aging list. Our list age has dramatically decreased over the last few years and will continue to decrease for a year or so more.

Unlike the Dees we have a core of very experienced quality senior players to help mentor the kids, force competition for spots and even out the inconsistency of young players on match day.

It's pretty easy to have more kids in your top 5 B&F when you have no old players for them to contend with.

We can also expect improvement from Acres, Billings, Bruce, Dunstan, Freeman, Goddard, Lonie, Longer, McCartin, McKenzie, Membrey, Minchington, Newnes, Ross, Sinclair, Templeton, Wright and others. Plus Carlisle should shift back to defense where he's at his best and allow Fisher to be more attacking.

"Ageing list" is an exaggeration, but I'd be surprised if there wasn't something resembling a transitionary period when there's four players over 32 in the top 10. The fact is the Saints do rely a lot more on their older players, yet finished with less wins. It's logical to expect a minor drop off before the younger core are ready to take the reigns. Maybe they will fly in the face of that theory and continue charging up the ladder this season, but it's not my expectation. Then again I said the Dogs would be bottom four this year

Re fewer senior players to take votes off, it's a valid point however the two points I'd make is 1) Montagna, Dempster and Fisher are hardly massive names anymore. Even the champ isn't his former self. So while they may take votes, there's no reason why the younger players can't feature higher in the count, especially if the senior guys are there to "even out the inconsistency"; and 2) Hogan and Viney would've featured in most club's top 10. Viney is underrated on the main board for some bizarre reason but I put that down to morons who think every Melbourne midfielder is a tagger. McDonald's first half of the year had him as one of the premier KPDs in the league. That is what earned him a top 5 finish and again would've featured highly at most clubs. Those three had excellent seasons in their own right.

 

[TheHoneyBadger]

Melbourne > St Kilda >> Brisbane.

I think it might just click for the Dees soon. Not convinced it'll be under Roos, though.

Not quite sold on the Saints. They've built a really balanced core of young talent to take over, but there could be setbacks in the short-medium term as the old boys retire.

Brisbane are nowhere near it. Nothing to kick to, and the supposedly stacked midfield is incredibly overrated, injuries or not.

 

[CarterS]

Have to say St Kilda. All three teams have shown in 2015 that their best footy is of a high quality, just St Kilda more often than Melbourne or us.

But jeez, aren't there multiple Collingwood supporters who take every available opportunity to pot us?!

 

[Milux]

I'd like to say Brisbane but I am optimistic every year. Have to say St Kilda.

But jeez, aren't there multiple Collingwood supporters who take every available opportunity to pot us?!

Im with you. A fully fit reiwoldt will see saints climb again.

If a few things click for us and walker can kick 30-35 and freeman can kick 20 i think we will win a few more then last year. I have us winning about 6-8 so nowhere near finals just yet.

 

[gillo94]

Im with you. A fully fit reiwoldt will see saints climb again.

If a few things click for us and walker can kick 30-35 and freeman can kick 20 i think we will win a few more then last year. I have us winning about 6-8 so nowhere near finals just yet.

I think we will have better idea who is ahead after end of 2016 season. I think Lions just need a good year and retention of players and will be a better side. I still rate them higher than other two but only just

 

[aussierulesrules]

Montagna is still going as well as ever Sprout. Averaged 28 disposals per game last year (10th in the league for disposals per game, at high efficiency ratio average), ranked no.3 in the league for inside 50's per game, 5th for effective disposals per game, 8th for AFL fantasy score per game, 7th in the league for kicks per game and also averaged a healthy 5 tackles per game. The only reason he's not getting as much credit for it any more is that he's playing for a lower ranked team that don't get much publicity. He is still extremely good and effective, as all those top 10 in the league stats show.

He, along with Armo and Steven ought to receive a hell of a lot more support in the midfield next season though, with a list as long as my arm who are likely to be ready or available to spend a lot more time in the midfield for us after this next preseason (Dunstan, Ross, Acres, Billings, Freeman, Sinclair, Lonie, Webster, Minchington, Templeton, plus maybe a Mathieson, after the draft). Our midfield last season was basically Armo, Steven, Joey and an injured 20yo Dunstan, plus Gilbert late, but they ought to have an incredible amount more support next season.

As for Dempster, he is likewise going about as well as ever, hence another top 3 B&F finish, and like Montagna, is supremely fit, so I wouldn't go banking on either of them to drop off the planet this year, just because they'll be 32yo. I won't be surprised in the least if Joey is still playing well at 35yo, as he has been supremely durable over the duration, hence coming top 6 in our B&F for 8 years in a row now.

Riewoldt had a lot to deal with last year (Maddie dying right on the eve of the season, someone else young that he was close to at the club dying early on in the season and then the concussion and a very interrupted first part of the season), so I wouldn't go assuming his slight drop in form/output was due to age. Everyone knows how ridiculously fit he is, and I'm told he's hoping to play for 3 more years. Still averaged the most marks per game of anyone in the comp. He's expected to spend a lot more time in a midfield/wing role next year though and will be the same age Richo was when he came 2nd in the Brownlow after he was moved to the wing. As long as his knee holds up and he doesn't get any other significant injuries, I expect he will just keep running up and down the ground week after week and as per usual, whoever's playing on him will struggle to keep up (especially in the air, if he's playing wing).

Fisher is the only one of our older brigade that I'm concerned might drop off significantly next season, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he just had one more good year in him before retiring, like Lenny Hayes did at 34yo.

The other thing with both Fisher and Dempster is that we really only went with one true "tall" down back last season (Delaney until round 13 and then Goddard from round 16 to 23) so that meant that for much of the season one or both of Fisher or Dempster were generally being played at FB or CHB, and that is far from Dempster's best position (at 191cm) and Fisher is also not really suited to it any more either. If we have Carlisle and a fitter and stronger Goddard in the key posts back there next year that will free up possibly both of them to return to the more intercepting/attacking roles that they can be so damaging in, which could make them much more of a "weapon" again.

Anything can happen at those sort of ages though of course, so only time will tell.

I'm actually really looking forward to seeing how we line up down back next year, as it's going to be hard to work out how to fit all of Carlisle, Goddard, Fisher, Dempster, Roberton, Geary, Savage, Webster and Newnes in (not to mention Gilbert, but he finished last season in the midfield, pushing forward) and they're all best 22. There's going to be serious pressure on for spots.

 

[Periphery]

"Ageing list" is an exaggeration, but I'd be surprised if there wasn't something resembling a transitionary period when there's four players over 32 in the top 10. The fact is the Saints do rely a lot more on their older players, yet finished with less wins. It's logical to expect a minor drop off before the younger core are ready to take the reigns. Maybe they will fly in the face of that theory and continue charging up the ladder this season, but it's not my expectation. Then again I said the Dogs would be bottom four this year

Re fewer senior players to take votes off, it's a valid point however the two points I'd make is 1) Montagna, Dempster and Fisher are hardly massive names anymore. Even the champ isn't his former self. So while they may take votes, there's no reason why the younger players can't feature higher in the count, especially if the senior guys are there to "even out the inconsistency"; and 2) Hogan and Viney would've featured in most club's top 10. Viney is underrated on the main board for some bizarre reason but I put that down to morons who think every Melbourne midfielder is a tagger. McDonald's first half of the year had him as one of the premier KPDs in the league. That is what earned him a top 5 finish and again would've featured highly at most clubs. Those three had excellent seasons in their own right.

I think talk of a large transitional drop off is overstated. Roo and Monty appear to be aiming to play another two years (possibly more for Monty). Further, Fisher and Dempster play in positions that we now have decent depth in so losing them wont have as big an impact. We have Armitage, Steven, Geary, Roberton, Savage and now Carlisle who are all between 24 and 27 and they will further lessen the impact. Those players also make it harder for our young players to break into the top 10 of our B&F.

Ultimately I think using B&F as a way to compare two teams young talent is pretty much useless. The teams vote in different ways, the lists are structured totally differently and the kids are at different stages of their own development.

 

[Milux]

I think we will have better idea who is ahead after end of 2016 season. I think Lions just need a good year and retention of players and will be a better side. I still rate them higher than other two but only just

Its just way too hard to tell. We fell apart this year with injuries and a distinct lack of gameplan. If those two things don't happen next year then we will be a hard team to beat in the middle of the ground.

 

[Big Flappy]

bris
melb
saints

 

[Dazb86]

Brisbane > Saints >>> Melbourne

Brisbane were hit really hard by injuries this year. They'll surprise a few teams at the Gabba IMO.

Saints are building well. Could be a decent side with a few things going right.

Melbourne are a bit behind the others. I think they are held back by an outdated game plan a little bit as well.

 

[Milux]

bris
melb
saints

Brisbane > Saints >>> Melbourne

Brisbane were hit really hard by injuries this year. They'll surprise a few teams at the Gabba IMO.

Saints are building well. Could be a decent side with a few things going right.

Melbourne are a bit behind the others. I think they are held back by an outdated game plan a little bit as well.

I wish i had your optimism

 

[Suma Magic]

I'd pick the Saints to finish highest in 2016.

Beyond that it's very difficult to tell.

 

[aussierulesrules]

What probably needs to be taken into account that I don't think has been mentioned is the team's respective draws.

Ours for instance is the easiest one we've had in years. We play Carlton twice and altogether have 8 games against the other bottom 6 teams and only one of them is interstate (Gold Coast). 6 of them are at Etihad. We play a whopping 17 games at Etihad (14) and the MCG (3), so only 5 outside of Melbourne and only have five 6-day breaks, none of them back-to-back. We play Melbourne twice and both of those games are at Etihad, where they haven't beaten us since Noah was a boy. We play Brisbane only once and that game is also at Etihad (where we haven't played them since 2009!).

Melbourne on the other hand have Hawthorn twice (ouch!) play 7 games outside Victoria (two more than us) and one in Geelong, so overall they have a harder draw, although it's a lot easier looking than ours in the first few rounds, so that could enable them to get some real confidence and momentum going early, before their draw gets harder later. If we win a couple early ours is a lot easier in the 2nd half of the year, so we could come home with a wet sail. Lose all of our early games and we might go into "play the kids" mode and aim for another really high pick.

Haven't seen Brisbane's draw, but the advantage they have over Melbourne based teams is that they have a big home ground and state advantage every 2nd week, which gives them a big chance of winning at least 11 of their games. We may play 17 games in Melbourne, but only 4 of them are a really significant home ground advantage, against an interstate team. Even then, those interstate teams play a hell of a lot more at Etihad than say we do at the Gabba.

That's why I think it's a lot more common for non-Vic teams to really shoot up the ladder from near the bottom and into the top 8, or thereabouts, if they go from having one bad year to getting their shit together again the next. Don't see Brisbane being good enough to do that (top 8) next year though, as they are coming from a very long way back and their key position stocks are still so inexperienced. Also questionmarks on Leppitsch and the whole environment up there I reckon.

I'm expecting all 3 of these teams to be better next year than they were this year and for all the teams in the bottom 10 to improve next year, except for Carlton (who I think will be last by a long way), so it could be one of the most even years in recent memory.

 

[La Vache]

I think melbourne could make finals next year. There are a few ifs but in hogan, gawn and McDonald they have three big guys who are trending up and potentially could take off completely. All three are the right age for that jump and when a sides' talls start to mature that is when you shoot up the ladder.

Vineys second half if '15 seems to have gone unnoticed but is starting to deliver the uncompromising brand that was promised when drafted. He is very Sewell like and will change close games with his physicality and will lift others.

I dunno just have this feeling about them, strangely I feel that it is actually roos that may hold them back initially, the dees will be better off when he's gone

 

[Sprout]

What probably needs to be taken into account that I don't think has been mentioned is the team's respective draws.

Ours for instance is the easiest one we've had in years. We play Carlton twice and altogether have 8 games against the other bottom 6 teams and only one of them is interstate (Gold Coast). 6 of them are at Etihad. We play a whopping 17 games at Etihad (14) and the MCG (3), so only 5 outside of Melbourne and only have five 6-day breaks, none of them back-to-back. We play Melbourne twice and both of those games are at Etihad, where they haven't beaten us since Noah was a boy. We play Brisbane only once and that game is also at Etihad (where we haven't played them since 2009!).

Melbourne on the other hand have Hawthorn twice (ouch!) play 7 games outside Victoria (two more than us) and one in Geelong, so overall they have a harder draw, although it's a lot easier looking than ours in the first few rounds, so that could enable them to get some real confidence and momentum going early, before their draw gets harder later. If we win a couple early ours is a lot easier in the 2nd half of the year, so we could come home with a wet sail. Lose all of our early games and we might go into "play the kids" mode and aim for another really high pick.

Haven't seen Brisbane's draw, but the advantage they have over Melbourne based teams is that they have a big home ground and state advantage every 2nd week, which gives them a big chance of winning at least 11 of their games. We may play 17 games in Melbourne, but only 4 of them are a really significant home ground advantage, against an interstate team. Even then, those interstate teams play a hell of a lot more at Etihad than say we do at the Gabba.

That's why I think it's a lot more common for non-Vic teams to really shoot up the ladder from near the bottom and into the top 8, or thereabouts, if they go from having one bad year to getting their shit together again the next. Don't see Brisbane being good enough to do that (top 8) next year though, as they are coming from a very long way back and their key position stocks are still so inexperienced. Also questionmarks on Leppitsch and the whole environment up there I reckon.

I'm expecting all 3 of these teams to be better next year than they were this year and for all the teams in the bottom 10 to improve next year, except for Carlton (who I think will be last by a long way), so it could be one of the most even years in recent memory.

It's a good point. We also play you lot twice at Etihad (one of them being our home game due to the super awesome stadium deal). That's 8 points that could have a say in who finishes higher.

But hey, we did finally break the curse in the last round this season.

 

[Proper Gander]

I love these offseason threads. Let's replace the title with battle of the giants

 

[ParapMarkets]

Melbourne have the best young talent of the three but they may still be another year from making finals. I would probably go for the Lions finishing highest next year if they can have better luck with injuries.

 

[Dazb86]

Melbourne the best young talent? I'd prefer the spread at the Saints.

Melbourne probably have the star potential in a few of their guys (Hogan is/will be an absolute gun) but their talent is spread pretty thin.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Melbourne the best young talent? I'd prefer the spread at the Saints.

Melbourne probably have the star potential in a few of their guys (Hogan is/will be an absolute gun) but their talent is spread pretty thin.

Melbourne's young midfielders have shown significantly more than the Saints in my opinion and they still have Petracca to come into that, add to that a couple of top ten picks this year and I think the depth is getting there.

 

[Dazb86]

Melbourne's young midfielders have shown significantly more than the Saints in my opinion and they still have Petracca to come into that, add to that a couple of top ten picks this year and I think the depth is getting there.

I see Brayshaw as the only guy that might warrant a tag in the future at the moment. Petracca might become that sort of player in the future.

 

[Trav 20]

Melbourne the best young talent? I'd prefer the spread at the Saints.

Melbourne probably have the star potential in a few of their guys (Hogan is/will be an absolute gun) but their talent is spread pretty thin.

Under the age of 23 at 1 April 2016.

Hogan, Viney, Tyson, Salem, Brayshaw, Petracca, Stretch, Bugg, Kent and Frost, although I really like Harmes.

Name the Saints group of ten that is superior (under the age of 23 at 1 April 2016).

 

[HowYouDoin]

We would be well ahead of both of these teams if we weren't stuck with such a shitty coach

 

[ParapMarkets]

I see Brayshaw as the only guy that might warrant a tag in the future at the moment. Petracca might become that sort of player in the future.

And that would be one more than the Saints young'uns who would warrant a tag based on past performance. Tyson should also become a very good player and Viney as well

 

[Sprout]

Under the age of 23 at 1 April 2016.

Hogan, Viney, Tyson, Salem, Brayshaw, Petracca, Stretch, Bugg, Kent and Frost, although I really like Harmes.

Name the Saints group of ten that is superior (under the age of 23 at 1 April 2016).

+ Neal-Bullen? He's a more exciting prospect than Bugg, and I like Bugg.