Who will be better in 2025 - Geelong or Hawthorn?

Who will be better in 2025?


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I think the list that really matters is assessing the 30 plus age (in 2025) bracket and how important these players are to each team:

Dangerfield
Stanley 33
Cam Guthrie 32
Atkins 30
Stewart 31 - Sicily 29
Cameron 31 - Gunston 32
Blicavs 33 - Frost 31
Duncan 33 - Amon 29
Bews 30 - Impey 29
Rohan 33 - Bruest 33

You can argue that Dangerfield, Stewart and Cameron are actually Geelong's three best players. Blicvas is probably still a top ten player for Geelong

Amon and Sicily both make Hawthorn's top ten, with Impey in or out depending how you'd rate it. Sicily would make Hawthorn's top 3.

Frosty, Breust and Gunston aren't in there, with the latter two likely not in the team except as subs.

With Battle and Barrass coming Impey perhaps slides just out of the top ten also.

This is where the difference is. The cliff is coming for the evergreens, though Cameron and Stewart still look sharp. But things can change quickly once you get to 32 as Breust and Gunston found out over the last 2 years.

There's not much there for Geelong in the upper echelon of the playing group in the 28 or older bracket outside of the group listed above.

My guess is that by the end of next year Dangerfield won't be playing midfield, and will be in a pocket. Big call for the team's best mid, but he's lost a little already, and the nature of that position isn't particularly forgiving to older players.

Breust and Gunston are back again next year only because they're effectively playing coaches. We lacked experience to give our side composure at times in 2024. We still need them on that front, and they both contributed well at times. But I wouldn't be surprised to see retirements from either before the end of the season.

Interestingly both were usurped by 19 years olds in Dear and Watson this year, and those two players are both likely top ten for us based on this year's performance.

+ 30 is a one sided age bracket at this stage, and reliance on players in this group puts the list on a little shakier ground that this year's performance might suggest. It's very different from 2022, when most of these guys were in their prime or thereabouts. The problem is going to be more pronounced when they retire, because the gap to the next bracket of top ten players is significant.

I had to include Amon and Sicily, and Atkins just to flesh things out.






















It's a very good question, and both clubs have players at similar levels, across areas of the ground.

Of those in a similar age bracket:

Holmes - Day
Stengle - Moore
Humphries - D'Ambrosio
J Henry - Scrimshaw
Dempsey - Macdonald
Neale - Dear
Stewart - Sicily
Clark - McKenzie
Z Guthrie - Hardwick
SDK - Weddle*

*Stretch I know with Weddle marked for more time up the ground, but just trying to find comparisons.

Both clubs posses imposing small forward ranks, and would arguably be #1 & #2 in those areas across the league. It's pick your poison really.

Wizard, Macdonald, Ginnivan, & Moore - Mannagh, Close, Stengle, Miers.

Where Hawthorn really come out ahead is their prime aged midfielders for mine.

If we're prepared to call Day/Holmes a wash, it still doesn't change that Newcombe, Worpel, & Nash is just simply better than Bruhn & Bowes.

Bailey Smith could potentially make that look a bit more even, but it still needs one more IMO.

Not to mention Meek, who is just miles ahead of the corpse of Stanley and the still-raw Conway.

At this stage I'm inclined to say Hawthorn. Love what Mitchell has done, and the list looks primed for an extended tilt.

Geelong are 1-2 years away from really beginning that IMO. We need a couple more pre-seasons for the u-23s to really take over completely, and a couple more trades/FA's for mine.

All in all though, expect to see these two clubs meet in finals at some point over the next few years.

Just seems like fate yet again.
 
Other posters have mentioned about the age and importance of Dangerfield, Stewart et.al. No doubt they will find replacements they always do. A washed up hack from another club who magically turns into superstar, or a punt on a kid from Equatorial Guinea who showed some promise in primary school as a volley ball player who seamlessly slots in to fill a need. The actors may change but the script remains the same. Just like those horror movies where you think the you’ve finally slayed the zombie only for it to keep coming back at you.
 
Other posters have mentioned about the age and importance of Dangerfield, Stewart et.al. No doubt they will find replacements they always do. A washed up hack from another club who magically turns into superstar, or a punt on a kid from Equatorial Guinea who showed some promise in primary school as a volley ball player who seamlessly slots in to fill a need. The actors may change but the script remains the same. Just like those horror movies where you think the you’ve finally slayed the zombie only for it to keep coming back at you.


Definitely an element of truth to this.

But everyone's luck runs out sooner or later.

You won't always land the best free agents the league has to offer every few years.

Cameron and Danger in particular are two freaks.

Even if you find high end replacements, they're unlikely to be as good for as long as those two have been/will be.
 

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I think the list that really matters is assessing the 30 plus age (in 2025) bracket and how important these players are to each team:

Dangerfield
Stanley 33
Cam Guthrie 32
Atkins 30
Stewart 31 - Sicily 29
Cameron 31 - Gunston 32
Blicavs 33 - Frost 31
Duncan 33 - Amon 29
Bews 30 - Impey 29
Rohan 33 - Bruest 33

You can argue that Dangerfield, Stewart and Cameron are actually Geelong's three best players. Blicvas is probably still a top ten player for Geelong

Amon and Sicily both make Hawthorn's top ten, with Impey in or out depending how you'd rate it. Sicily would make Hawthorn's top 3.

Frosty, Breust and Gunston aren't in there, with the latter two likely not in the team except as subs.

With Battle and Barrass coming Impey perhaps slides just out of the top ten also.

This is where the difference is. The cliff is coming for the evergreens, though Cameron and Stewart still look sharp. But things can change quickly once you get to 32 as Breust and Gunston found out over the last 2 years.

There's not much there for Geelong in the upper echelon of the playing group in the 28 or older bracket outside of the group listed above.

My guess is that by the end of next year Dangerfield won't be playing midfield, and will be in a pocket. Big call for the team's best mid, but he's lost a little already, and the nature of that position isn't particularly forgiving to older players.

Breust and Gunston are back again next year only because they're effectively playing coaches. We lacked experience to give our side composure at times in 2024. We still need them on that front, and they both contributed well at times. But I wouldn't be surprised to see retirements from either before the end of the season.

Interestingly both were usurped by 19 years olds in Dear and Watson this year, and those two players are both likely top ten for us based on this year's performance.

+ 30 is a one sided age bracket at this stage, and reliance on players in this group puts the list on a little shakier ground that this year's performance might suggest. It's very different from 2022, when most of these guys were in their prime or thereabouts. The problem is going to be more pronounced when they retire, because the gap to the next bracket of top ten players is significant.

I had to include Amon and Sicily, and Atkins just to flesh things out.
Holmes had a breakout year this year and would be knocking on door of best players at Geelong
 
Other posters have mentioned about the age and importance of Dangerfield, Stewart et.al. No doubt they will find replacements they always do. A washed up hack from another club who magically turns into superstar, or a punt on a kid from Equatorial Guinea who showed some promise in primary school as a volley ball player who seamlessly slots in to fill a need. The actors may change but the script remains the same. Just like those horror movies where you think the you’ve finally slayed the zombie only for it to keep coming back at you.
We've definitely got a good return from state league players and some left-field selection and have capitalized well on players recruited from elsewhere, but of those only Stewart has become a high-quality player. Dangerfield and Cameron were known and established guns who wanted to come to us. Replacing them will be immensely difficult when it's doubtful that lightning will strike again and another big-name talent will want to move to us, and we don't have the draft position to draft it in.
 
Cats have apparently been approaching a cliff since early 2009 so it’s gotta get here eventually. 🤣
I expect cats will find a way to get JUH from dogs have him learn as 2nd banana to Cameron then take over forward line.
 
That is not untrue, butI still think it's Danger, Stewart and Cameron at the end of this season.

Need Guthrie to take the extra step into Stewart’s precious role. He’s not THAT far off it but unsure if he’s good enough to reach where Stewart got to

Players like Cameron don’t grow on trees obviously so hoping we will find someone to fill his spot is a waste of time.

An individual like Dangerfield can’t be replaced but I think as a collective you can. We did that with Ablett once before - now that was a lot easier given that we already had a core of elite midfielders so of course it was going to be easier then. But my point is that a great mid doesn’t have to be replaced by another great midfielder because the contribution they bring to the team can be shared. Hopefully Holmes can become more and more of a genuine midfielder and having Smith would help if he reaches some sort of elite level.
 
Need Guthrie to take the extra step into Stewart’s precious role. He’s not THAT far off it but unsure if he’s good enough to reach where Stewart got to

Players like Cameron don’t grow on trees obviously so hoping we will find someone to fill his spot is a waste of time.

An individual like Dangerfield can’t be replaced but I think as a collective you can. We did that with Ablett once before - now that was a lot easier given that we already had a core of elite midfielders so of course it was going to be easier then. But my point is that a great mid doesn’t have to be replaced by another great midfielder because the contribution they bring to the team can be shared. Hopefully Holmes can become more and more of a genuine midfielder and having Smith would help if he reaches some sort of elite level.

It takes a handful of superstars to anchor a flag winning team though.

I agree there's difficulty in replacing those two. It's borderline freakish the way they've both played into their 30s at the level they have.
 
That is not untrue, butI still think it's Danger, Stewart and Cameron at the end of this season.

Stewart didn't play the first final and had possibly the worst game of his career against Brisbane. It's very possible he has a better year next year and almost impossible for him to give us less than his finals output.
 

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It takes a handful of superstars to anchor a flag winning team though.

I agree there's difficulty in replacing those two. It's borderline freakish the way they've both played into their 30s at the level they have.

Yeah it does.

Stupid as it may sound especially after his woeful final the other night, a huge determining factor in how far we push next year will be Shannon Neale.

Cameron is a freak athlete and that doesn’t seem to be showing any signs of waning and he’s not a contested style of forward so provided he doesn’t suddenly start picking up soft tissue problems I would hope that he doesn’t have any sudden drop off and can keep just doing what he does: pushing all over the ground in the forward half and kicking his 2.5-3 goals a week with the odd bag of 5-6 and being our trump card. He’s allowed to do that if Neale can just be ‘adequate’ and kick 2 a week, contest the ball, and bring all those small players into the game because if he does that, those guys are lethal. If he doesn’t, their influence is a hell of a lot less damaging.
 
We've definitely got a good return from state league players and some left-field selection and have capitalized well on players recruited from elsewhere, but of those only Stewart has become a high-quality player. Dangerfield and Cameron were known and established guns who wanted to come to us. Replacing them will be immensely difficult when it's doubtful that lightning will strike again and another big-name talent will want to move to us, and we don't have the draft position to draft it in.
Blicavs?
 
Yeah it does.

Stupid as it may sound especially after his woeful final the other night, a huge determining factor in how far we push next year will be Shannon Neale.

Cameron is a freak athlete and that doesn’t seem to be showing any signs of waning and he’s not a contested style of forward so provided he doesn’t suddenly start picking up soft tissue problems I would hope that he doesn’t have any sudden drop off and can keep just doing what he does: pushing all over the ground in the forward half and kicking his 2.5-3 goals a week with the odd bag of 5-6 and being our trump card. He’s allowed to do that if Neale can just be ‘adequate’ and kick 2 a week, contest the ball, and bring all those small players into the game because if he does that, those guys are lethal. If he doesn’t, their influence is a hell of a lot less damaging.
Neale will be your next Hawkins. His development has taken a lot by surprise. And for his size and age, his output has been tracking nicely.
 
Neale will be your next Hawkins. His development has taken a lot by surprise. And for his size and age, his output has been tracking nicely.
He’s done ok, takes his contested mark per game, kicks his 1.5 per game and has about 10 touches.

At 22 that’s not too bad for someone with 20 games.

Time to take that to another level now without the spectre of Tom over his shoulder as the main stay-at-home forward. He would do well to look at some of the game nous that Dear showed in a few matches this year. He’s got size and height on Dear but already Dear has some game sense that Neale doesn’t yet have.
 
As others have said I wouldn’t be suprised if the Hawks fell back a little bit next year. They really rode the wave of momentum and had a consistent run with injury, at least until the end of H&A.
The Cats, who knows. Have been blessed with few injuries also, they have the muscle memory of winning and their foward line is (for mine) easily the best and efficient.
 
Yeah he was a good left-field selection as I alluded to. Definitely has turned out better than many thought with his background. But while incredibly useful, I don't have him in the same echelon of player as Dangerfield, Cameron and Stewart, and I also don't think we'll be able to get someone like him again. A cat B rookie with most of his athletic experience elsewhere coming along as well as he did is like a unicorn.
 
Why isn't there a Geelong v Collingwood thread instead? I think they're more comparable.
 

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