Which team if any could be a surprise flag winner in 2024?

[VinnieB]

6 point loss to the premiers, 12 point loss to the runners up, wins over both other prelim finalists. I mean you may need drugs to cope with being a Saints supporter in general, but hardly need drugs to make that leap of them being a smokey to snatch a flag.

I’m not sure it really means anything whether you win or lose by a small margin against grand finalists or top 4 teams.
History is full of these types of results yet it doesn’t reflect a significantly improved showing the following year.

The Pies lost against West Coast in 2022. Didn’t mean anything really to either team’s 2022 or 2023.

 

[Triggering Tiger]

I put 20 bucks on the tigers for the flag, if i win I'll get 1k back if i lose zero no biggie.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I put 20 bucks on the tigers for the flag, if i win I'll get 1k back if i lose zero no biggie.

Better to do that the other way, for teams you hate. If they win, you get a big pay day to more than make up for it, if they don't win, money well spent.

To the OP, I'd argue Geelong in 2022 was unexpected preseason and a surprise winner, although they obviously didn't come out of nowhere. They were demolished in the previous year's preliminary final, they were a year older and they were expected to get worse, not to finally break through for that premiership that they'd been close to with no success for the previous decade.

To look at the question I'd have to separate it between:

The teams that are the leading candidates to win the 2024 premiership - I'll go with the top seven in betting at the moment (from Sportsbet): Collingwood, Brisbane, GWS, Melbourne, Sydney, Port and Carlton - personally I feel like GWS and Sydney are debatable here, but I'll park that.

Then there's the teams that I'm writing off already to make it past the second week of finals: in this group, I'd include West Coast, North, Hawthorn and Richmond.

That leaves Fremantle, Gold Coast, St Kilda, Geelong, Essendon, Adelaide and the Bulldogs. I feel as though St Kilda and Adelaide are a little too obvious as smoky contenders. I'll rule out Geelong to eliminate personal bias.

And I'm pretty happy with the four possibles I'm left with: Dogs, Dons, Freo and the Suns.

 

[Philth]

I'll go with the Bulldogs.

They have a very good list still, and with minimal injuries can beat anyone.

 

[TheUnicorn]

I'll go with the Bulldogs.

They have a very good list still, and with minimal injuries can beat anyone.

Everyone knows they have a very talented list, I don't think it would really surprised anyone.

 

[BennyGan]

Crows were the highest scoring team last year and were pretty competitive against a lot of the good sides. If they can defend a bit better and maybe get some more speed going through the midfield I think they are a chance to beat anyone this season.

 

[Philth]

Everyone knows they have a very talented list, I don't think it would really surprised anyone.

I think it would surprise plenty of people if they won the flag in 2024.

 

[Matrix10]

Crows were the highest scoring team last year and were pretty competitive against a lot of the good sides. If they can defend a bit better and maybe get some more speed going through the midfield I think they are a chance to beat anyone this season.

That’s my take on it as well , very talented team with a good mixture of star quality and role players on every line , if they can strike that when to run and gun to tempo footy balance , lookout , they will be right in there , very well coached and the players respond well to Nicksy. as an outsider looking in .

 

[Woolly Mammoth]

I’m not sure it really means anything whether you win or lose by a small margin against grand finalists or top 4 teams.
History is full of these types of results yet it doesn’t reflect a significantly improved showing the following year.

The Pies lost against West Coast in 2022. Didn’t mean anything really to either team’s 2022 or 2023.

True but I think it is evidence that its not such an outrageous darkhorse to pick, also 4 games against the eventual top 4 is more of a pattern than the Eagles surprise win.

 

[hilly]

Then there's the teams that I'm writing off already to make it past the second week of finals: in this group, I'd include North

I'd be happy to just escape the bottom four.

 

[Dangerousfield]

The answer is St. Kilda.

Reading this I'm thinking of a TISM song, you know the one

 

[Dangerousfield]

I'd be happy to just escape the bottom four.

The AFL has enormously helped you do that

 

[Dangerousfield]

I'll go with the Bulldogs.

They have a very good list still, and with minimal injuries can beat anyone.

But they'd need a repeat of 2016 with the umpires massively on board again! Bevo is a big millstone

I think we're a big chance here at the Crows, rebuild has gone very well.

Swans should be a contender, super trade period, only beaten there by Dodoro of course ;-)

 

[emuboy]

Crows were the highest scoring team last year and were pretty competitive against a lot of the good sides. If they can defend a bit better and maybe get some more speed going through the midfield I think they are a chance to beat anyone this season.

I had just come on to post Adelaide as well, if the Crows held up the 2024 premiership cup at the end of September it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[RonnieRaven]

But they'd need a repeat of 2016 with the umpires massively on board again! Bevo is a big millstone

I think we're a big chance here at the Crows, rebuild has gone very well.

Swans should be a contender, super trade period, only beaten there by Dodoro of course ;-)

only one player you have drafted in this rebuild were top 10 In your bnf how is it going very well?
Tex had a career year laird was third in your bnf

Jones and rankine the only players under 25 to feature in the top 10 of your bnf.

Your 25 and overs had great injury free years and you still couldn’t make finals.

With These unfair expectations on the crows there’s more chance nix will be sacked then win the flag

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Adelaide Crows and I am not joking either.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Should be Gold Coast... more likely to be Sydney.

No one really would be surprised if it was the Swans.

The Suns on the other hand would be amazing

 

[CharacterFirst]

Geelong.

 

[adammania9]

Crows were the highest scoring team last year and were pretty competitive against a lot of the good sides. If they can defend a bit better and maybe get some more speed going through the midfield I think they are a chance to beat anyone this season.

Think the defensive group is too inexperienced to make the great leap just yet. After Brodie Smith with 247 games, Wayne Milera is the next most experienced player in the defensive group with 96 games. Next is Jordon Butts with 60. None are world beaters.

With Curtin, Michalanney, Murray, Hinge and potentially Worrell, there's plenty to work with going forward but it'll take time. All of the top sides have very experienced back lines.

 

[carlton4lyfe]

Suns

 

[Joao]

In the spirit of the thread I think it would have to be the Saints or maybe the Bombers. Teams like Carlton or Swans have recent form and/or trajectory that indicates its possible. Even the Suns is not totally out there given the talent and new coach.

Bombers don't win finals and the Saints got bundled out in week 1 having only just got back in there after a couple out. Both middling AF but it's not inconceivable that it could all turn around and go bang in 2024.

 

[Kiama Chris]

To win a flag you pretty much have to finish top 4. There are lots of teams that most would say are no chance of doing that, so who is unlikely but possible.
Saints.
That would be a big surprise.

 

[RUNVS]

To win a flag you pretty much have to finish top 4. There are lots of teams that most would say are no chance of doing that, so who is unlikely but possible.
Saints.
That would be a big surprise.

The problem with St Kilda is they don't really have a point of difference. They are a very middle team, sort of lacking in stars.

 

[terrybull]

Better to do that the other way, for teams you hate. If they win, you get a big pay day to more than make up for it, if they don't win, money well spent.

To the OP, I'd argue Geelong in 2022 was unexpected preseason and a surprise winner, although they obviously didn't come out of nowhere. They were demolished in the previous year's preliminary final, they were a year older and they were expected to get worse, not to finally break through for that premiership that they'd been close to with no success for the previous decade.

To look at the question I'd have to separate it between:

The teams that are the leading candidates to win the 2024 premiership - I'll go with the top seven in betting at the moment (from Sportsbet): Collingwood, Brisbane, GWS, Melbourne, Sydney, Port and Carlton - personally I feel like GWS and Sydney are debatable here, but I'll park that.

Then there's the teams that I'm writing off already to make it past the second week of finals: in this group, I'd include West Coast, North, Hawthorn and Richmond.

That leaves Fremantle, Gold Coast, St Kilda, Geelong, Essendon, Adelaide and the Bulldogs. I feel as though St Kilda and Adelaide are a little too obvious as smoky contenders. I'll rule out Geelong to eliminate personal bias.

And I'm pretty happy with the four possibles I'm left with: Dogs, Dons, Freo and the Suns.

We think alike.

Putting money on your own team is either win-win or lose-lose.

Putting money on a team you don’t like is always win-lose.

 

[hilly]

The AFL has enormously helped you do that

Good to be a favourite of AFL house. Another anti-Vic conspiracy!