Prediction When is the soonest we can expect to go deep in finals?

What year can you see us starting to contend?


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Mar 28, 2011
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Bit of discussion about this in the ANB and other player movement threads - the idea of when we can start looking to be a flag contender is clearly a divisive point of discussion, depending on one's thoughts on the state of the list and off-field staff

I think most can agree that we won't be competing for a flag while Nicks is in charge. Provided we make the right coaching hire post-Nicks (bold to assume, I know), what do we think is the soonest possible date of the beginning of a new era of on-field success?

If Nicks is gone within the next 12 months, we bring in Cumming/ANB to fill some obvious immediate holes in the 22 (plus possibly a couple of others after 2025), and the development of our players drafted from 2020 onwards continues on the right trajectory, I think it's possible that we can look at 2026 or 2027 as the soonest date. We've seen teams in the past make a sharp rise up the ladder off the back of list additions and youth development. Obviously Nicks is putting a cap on how far we can rise currently (and I think it's fair to assume he doesn't change his ways), but with the right, free-flowing, hard-running gameplan, I don't see any reason why we can't start to push during those years

Of course, I'm assuming a lot goes right, and maybe a lack of optimism of off-field making the correct decisions will play a factor in people's thoughts, but I still like to think there's some kind of light at the end of the tunnel. Will be interesting to see if anyone else thinks the same
 

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We're basically at the beginning of our next rebuild. Takes 10 years to draft enough talent.
10 years seems excessive? Unless your drafting is pretty consistently crap

I'd argue we've drafted well since 2021, aided by one good pick in each of the previous two drafts (RT/Worrell). Just need to wait for development to take its course
 
There is no set timeline.

If everything falls into place then it could be next year.

People that put timelines on rebuilds are fools. People that put timelines on how far away any club is are fools.

Eagles predicted to finish low won a flag, Hawthorn made a big run this year.

You might well say 'yeah but they are the exception' - well to you I'd say that anyone who goes in not thinking they could be the exception is stuck is a loser mentality.

We look a mile off it at the moment but we ticked off a few things this year like winning a couple of close ones, winning in Melbourne etc. String a few more of those together next year and anything is possible.
 
Our top draftees should be in their prime beginning in 2027, which is when our window should begin

We should be making finals in 2025

There are several other elements that will hold us back from those targets at the moment but that can change quickly
 
It takes about 7 years to challenge after a draft rebuild - prior to 2020 our drafting is a wasteland so we put ourselves back several years later than we could have been. However 7 years after 2020 is 2027. So that’s when we should be genuinely challenging

The sliding doors moment of 2023. Could have had this team with momentum taking on our bunny Carlton in front of 90k fans. Could have been huge to catch up some of that development


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10 years seems excessive? Unless your drafting is pretty consistently crap

I'd argue we've drafted well since 2021, aided by one good pick in each of the previous two drafts (RT/Worrell). Just need to wait for development to take its course
Draft a kid at 18 and he leads you to a premiership at 28. Sounds about right to me.
 
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For a board full of pessimists this poll sure has a lot of optimists.

I doubt nicks is gone within 12 months so any new coach would be in 2026. Plus assistant and development coach changes that are also required (will we get that right anyway). Assuming the coaches we select are any good (big if) this would likely take another couple of years until we are challenging. That's 2028.

My guess is we won't be challenging before that and I'm skeptical whether we even get there near 2028. The club is still making some poor off field decisions.

The only way we can challenge earlier is if a a number of our key young players all take a big step simultaneously (TT, Rachele, Soligo, Pedlar, Michalaney, Nankervis, Taylor, Curtin). Recent history shows our player development stagnates, so I don't have a lot of confidence.
 
For a board full of pessimists this poll sure has a lot of optimists.

I doubt nicks is gone within 12 months so any new coach would be in 2026. Plus assistant and development coach changes that are also required (will we get that right anyway). Assuming the coaches we select are any good (big if) this would likely take another couple of years until we are challenging. That's 2028.

My guess is we won't be challenging before that and I'm skeptical whether we even get there near 2028. The club is still making some poor off field decisions.

The only way we can challenge earlier is if a a number of our key young players all take a big step simultaneously (TT, Rachele, Soligo, Pedlar, Michalaney, Nankervis, Taylor, Curtin). Recent history shows our player development stagnates, so I don't have a lot of confidence.
He'll be gone if we don't make the 8 next year.

New coach bounce in 2026 and we'll be playing finals.
 
I have no clue. After been robbed in 2023 I think 2024 set us back a couple of more years.

I say 2028.

But then you look at 2012, nobody gave us a chance that year and we nearly pulled it off.
 
First need to remove the tumour that is Matthew Nicks and give the new guy at least 2 years to work it out. So 2028 ish.
 

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Prediction When is the soonest we can expect to go deep in finals?

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