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AFL expected scores ladder: Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions most wasteful in Champion Data analysis
Carlton’s charmed run to second on the ladder has been revealed in exclusive expected scores analysis. See where every club sits and the finals contenders kicking themselves out of the top-four mix.June 26, 2024 - 12:00PM
Two of the AFL’s premiership sleepers have been revealed as the most wasteful clubs in front of goal this season.
Champion Data’s expected scores analysis shows the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions would be inside the top-four on the ladder had they been more efficient in attack in 2024.
The Bulldogs are the biggest risers when comparing the AFL ladder to expected scores, jumping from 11th to second at 10-4 instead of their current 7-7 record.
Luke Beveridge’s side kicked a combined 39.57 from rounds 9-11, defeating the Giants and Richmond and losing to ladder-leader Sydney.
“In particular, against a team like the Giants if you’re not capitalising, you feel like it could cost you,” Beveridge said after the Dogs booted 8.22 to secure a gritty win over GWS in tough conditions.
“I think we hit that left goalpost seven times and I think there were seven rushed behinds as well. Those big things are sometimes really important.”
WHAT ARE EXPECTED SCORES?
For every shot at goal, Champion Data takes into account where on the ground the shot was taken and how much pressure the player was under. From there, CD looks at the expected accuracy based on that particular shot over the past decade to work out the expected return.The table shows the Bulldogs have the highest expected score per game in the league (95.9), just ahead of the Swans (95). Earlier this year, it was revealed the Bulldogs had turned to kicking blindfolded at training to help fix their issues in front of goal. The Dogs have surged into finals contention after round 15, sitting six points behind fifth-placed Fremantle, ahead of a pivotal stretch that includes games against Port Adelaide, Geelong and Melbourne in the next six weeks.
2024 LEADING GOALKICKERS
WESTERN BULLDOGSJamarra Ugle-Hagan 23.19
Aaron Naughton 22.9
Sam Darcy 22.8
Marcus Bontempelli 22.6
Rhylee West 17.13
Cody Weightman 17.3
BRISBANE LIONS
Joe Daniher 30.28
Eric Hipwood 24.15
Charlie Cameron 21.19
Kai Lohmann 17.11
Logan Morris 13.6
Brisbane has stormed to 10th by winning four of its past five matches, but would have been firmly entrenched in the top eight had it not been wasteful in front of goal early in the campaign.
“Our actual performance profile is really strong,” Lions coach Chris Fagan said earlier this month.
“The one area where we’ve let ourselves down significantly this year is accuracy in front of goal. (The round 11 game against Hawthorn) is a terrific example of that. We kicked 10.15 and Hawthorn kicked 15.10 … our accuracy has really hurt us at different times and probably cost us the opportunity to win games three or four times (in early 2024).”
Western Bulldogs sit second on the expected scores ladder. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images
Carlton has cashed-in on its luck to sit second on the ladder, with the Blues ranked 14th for points against (85) on the expected scores table.
But Essendon was the biggest slider when compared to expected scores, dropping from third to 11th with 10 less points than its current tally of 38.
St Kilda (13th on the expected scores ladder) was only one game from fifth in Champion Data’s analysis.
EXPECTED SCORES LADDER
| Ladder Position | Club | Results | Scoreboard | Ladder | ||||
| Actual | Expected | W | L | For | Agst | % | Pts | |
| 1 | 1 | Sydney Swans | 12 | 2 | 95.0 | 73.7 | 128.9% | 48 |
| 11 | 2 | Western Bulldogs | 10 | 4 | 95.9 | 78.9 | 121.6% | 40 |
| 10 | 3 | Brisbane Lions | 9 | 5 | 94.1 | 73.5 | 128.1% | 36 |
| 4 | 4 | Collingwood | 9 | 5 | 84.8 | 75.1 | 113.0% | 36 |
| 8 | 5 | Port Adelaide | 8 | 6 | 89.9 | 78.2 | 114.9% | 32 |
| 5 | 6 | Fremantle | 8 | 6 | 85.9 | 75.5 | 113.8% | 32 |
| 13 | 7 | Hawthorn | 8 | 6 | 82.8 | 78.3 | 105.8% | 32 |
| 9 | 8 | Melbourne | 8 | 6 | 72.5 | 78.5 | 92.5% | 32 |
| 2 | 9 | Carlton | 7 | 7 | 92.5 | 85.0 | 108.9% | 28 |
| 6 | 10 | GWS GIANTS | 7 | 7 | 84.3 | 81.7 | 103.2% | 28 |
| 3 | 11 | Essendon | 7 | 7 | 85.1 | 84.2 | 101.0% | 28 |
| 7 | 12 | Geelong Cats | 7 | 7 | 85.1 | 86.1 | 98.8% | 28 |
| 14 | 13 | St Kilda | 7 | 7 | 77.7 | 80.9 | 96.0% | 28 |
| 12 | 14 | Gold Coast SUNS | 6 | 8 | 78.7 | 78.3 | 100.5% | 24 |
| 15 | 15 | Adelaide Crows | 6 | 8 | 77.9 | 79.4 | 98.1% | 24 |
| 16 | 16 | West Coast Eagles | 5 | 9 | 75.8 | 91.2 | 83.1% | 20 |
| 17 | 17 | Richmond | 1 | 13 | 64.5 | 101.8 | 63.4% | 4 |
| 18 | 18 | North Melbourne | 1 | 13 | 65.3 | 107.6 | 60.6% | 4 |
