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Scenario now is:

  • Brisbane need to win big to get a Top 2
  • Sixers need to win big to get a Top 4

It probably means the game will now be a closer affair as both teams have incentive. The chances of a Renegades Grand Final has also rocketed.....to close to 97% now. (up from my earlier 93% predicition)
 

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And in the scenario where Brisbane bat 1st, Sixers would need to chase the target within 57 balls or less to overtake Hobarts NRR. So look, there is a more likely chance of Brisbane smashing Sixers to Host the Grand Final, than Sixers smashing Brisbane to make the Finals.

But one would think, its probably going to be a game decided somewhere in the 15th-20th over in the 2nd half of the chase...........Its very rare thing for WBBL teams chasing, to finish chases inside 15 overs or less.

although i do sense Brisbane will win but the question will be by how much.
 
Scorchers shot themselves in the foot with 3 of their 4 run outs - not going to count the 4th which was off the last ball of their innings & trying to get as many runs as possible

But those 3 earlier run outs were totally avoidable if they just played smarter - with those 3, I'm not sure the ball went further than a couple of metres from the bowler or keeper
 
NYRB said:
And in the scenario where Brisbane bat 1st, Sixers would need to chase the target within 57 balls or less to overtake Hobarts NRR. So look, there is a more likely chance of Brisbane smashing Sixers to Host the Grand Final, than Sixers smashing Brisbane to make the Finals.

But one would think, its probably going to be a game decided somewhere in the 15th-20th over in the 2nd half of the chase...........Its very rare thing for WBBL teams chasing, to finish chases inside 15 overs or less.

although i do sense Brisbane will win but the question will be by how much.
Click to expand...

Feels weird saying the following, but

IF chasing, the best thing Brisbane can go is set themselves up for the win in the first 10 overs and then go crazy after the drinks break

How the Gades played today (and against the Strikers in SA a couple of weeks back) gives a good blueprint for chasing down target & getting a NRR boost:
  • don't need to do anything crazy in the power play. Best to get yourselves in, get a partnership going & don't lose early wickets - it's ok to play with some patience
  • go hard after the drinks break as that's when you can open up the innings


Today we were 69/1 at the drinks break, took the surge straight away & scored 68 in 4.2 overs. We looked comfortable at the drinks break, but not necessarily in any serious urgency that would suggest we'd win in less than 15 overs - those 32 runs in the surge took the game right away from the Thunder and we kept going with the momentum

Against the Strikers we were 83/0 at the drinks break, take the surge straight up which we scored 23/1 (plus Webb retired hurt) but that was enough of a momentum swing to allow us to finish off the match in 17.1 overs - incurring 80 off 5.1 overs after the surge which is just nuts



So depending on the target, if they're chasing the Heat could definitely put themselves in a good position in the first 10 overs to really chase the win after the drinks break but if they go too hard too early, they may well find themselves fighting to even win the match


And while the Sixers are still alive, that's highly unlikely unless they can do something crazy like bowling the Heat out for 20 type thing
 

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