Europe War in Ukraine

[Blue Arrow]

No surprise there, no gas for Germany if Uncle Vlad is cross.

========================================================

If you don't think Boris Johnson is itching for a fight, you haven't read any of his history books or seen what's happening in the UK at the moment.

I'm surprised he's not on a battleship in the Mediterranean headed East already.

You do release it not 1933?
The British military isn't up to fighting a major war now, even against a faded power like Russia.

 

[ChampRevesby]

Germany are an interesting bunch, they like to freeload on NATO but also like cheap Russian energy. That's been pretty consistent for about 20 years now, weird how the Americans have yet to accept it.

 

[1990crow]

Germany are an interesting bunch, they like to freeload on NATO but also like cheap Russian energy. That's been pretty consistent for about 20 years now, weird how the Americans have yet to accept it.

Well it's worked for them. One of the leading economies in the world until recently.

 

[ChampRevesby]

Well it's worked for them. One of the leading economies in the world until recently.

They are also the 4th largest exporter of arms in the world (just not to Ukraine). They also blocked Estonia from transferring weapons to Ukraine.

 

[1990crow]

They are also the 4th largest exporter of arms in the world (just not to Ukraine).

They're a smartly run country. Unfortunately they had a madman (edit - piece of human garbage) in charge 80 years ago otherwise they'd probably be a world power.

 

[ChampRevesby]

They're a smartly run country. Unfortunately they had a madman (edit - piece of human garbage) in charge 80 years ago otherwise they'd probably be a world power.

They have been an economic powerhouse for a long time. They don't commit much of their GDP to defense because of said mad man, but they are happy for their allies to foot the bill for their defense. They do speak from both sides of their mouth though esp when it comes to mad men that supply them the goods.

 

[Malifice]

Boris is itching for a fight because his calamitous prime ministerial reign is all but over without one.

Truss over here is beating the jungle drums. Not surprisingly.

No other NATO nation is interested in war. But no other NATO nation has as big an imbecile in charge as Boris. And more importantly, no other leader of a NATO nation is as dead in the water as Boris.

Boris is not stupid enough to risk war with Russia. He's his own worst enemy, but he's a very smart man.

Rhetoric, symbolism and some kind of token effort sure. But British troops on the ground, or warships directly involved?

Not a chance in hell (unless the Yanks are in as well).

 

[The Passenger]

Rhetoric, symbolism and some kind of token effort sure. But British troops on the ground, or warships directly involved?

Not a chance in hell (unless the Yanks are in as well).

In the unlikely event the yanks do go in, Boris will be charging in behind.

The messaging here is just a means of distraction from Boris' month of hell.

 

[Marcel Proust]

In the unlikely event the yanks do go in, Boris will be charging in behind.

The messaging here is just a means of distraction from Boris' month of hell.

The seppos sent 90 tons of gear and england has been giving them shit loads too

 

[ChampRevesby]

The average Eurocrat in Brussels (EU or NATO) is, rightly, more afraid of the Eurozone being swamped by a new tide of refugee flows (during Covid & a severe winter) as a result of the Russians moving into eastern Ukraine than they are of Russia actually annexing half of Ukraine.
It's also interesting how the diplomatic hashtag generation in American circles completely misunderstand Eastern European power politics and a hot ethnic war.

 

[Sphynx]

If it does escalate to outright conflict, you are looking at possibly the largest potential war since WW2 imo.

Ukraine has 500,000 well trained active and reserve personnel, globally ranked airforce with 100+ fighters, 1000's of tanks and self propelled artillary and experience fighting in Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan. They also have a huge population if it extends to full-scale war to supplement the war effort.

This is not a Vietnam/Kuwait/Iraq situation, Ukraine is a much more capable defendant, even excluding the potential involvement of the UK/USA.

 

[Marcel Proust]

If it does escalate to outright conflict, you are looking at possibly the largest potential war since WW2 imo.

Ukraine has 500,000 well trained active and reserve personnel, globally ranked airforce with 100+ fighters, 1000's of tanks and self propelled artillary and experience fighting in Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan. They also have a huge population if it extends to full-scale war to supplement the war effort.

This is not a Vietnam/Kuwait/Iraq situation, Ukraine is a much more capable defendant, even excluding the potential involvement of the UK/USA.

Does china help Russia?

 

[Sphynx]

Does china help Russia?

I don't think so, not directly anyway, it may threaten to mobilise their pacific neighbours (Japan, Sth Korea, India, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia) if they move directly against Nato and the UK and USA.

I don't think China risk that.

 

[Marcel Proust]

I don't think so, not directly anyway, it may threaten to mobilise their pacific neighbours (Japan, Sth Korea, India, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia) if they move directly against Nato and the UK and USA.

I don't think China risk that.

Idk if china are big fans of the yanks helping Ukraine.

Xi called Putin his best friend too

 

[Sphynx]

Idk if china are big fans of the yanks helping Ukraine.

Xi called Putin his best friend too

China will look after China, they aren't going to risk the Pacific IMO.

As much as they are a bully - India, Japan, Sth Korea and Australia as a group are not to be messed with.

There more interesting question is do they move on Taiwan whilst the USA and UK's attention is elsewhere...

 

[spinynorman]

Does china help Russia?

At least during the Cold War the fantastical threat of a united communist bloc was based on something ideological and real. The idea of China and Russia, two countries with nothing in common, just has no basis aside for a vague “they’re the bad guys” thing. They only work together if they’re pushed together.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

China will look after China, they aren't going to risk the Pacific IMO.

As much as they are a bully - India, Japan, Sth Korea and Australia as a group are not to be messed with.

There more interesting question is do they move on Taiwan whilst the USA and UK's attention is elsewhere...

thats the question i have

if the USA commits ground troops against Russia*, do China use that timing to strike Taiwan (knowing the US forces will be split - you need more than just the navy to defend Taiwan, the marines and/or army will be needed both in Taiwan and for the invasion of China)


*the USA wont do jack shit for Ukraine. The question is whats next. Putin has be vocal about wanting the Baltic States (NATO members) and Finland back under russian control. NATO will fall beyond irrelevant if they fail to defend any of these four from Russian invasion.

 

[Sphynx]

thats the question i have

if the USA commits ground troops against Russia*, do China use that timing to strike Taiwan (knowing the US forces will be split - you need more than just the navy to defend Taiwan, the marines and/or army will be needed both in Taiwan and for the invasion of China)


*the USA wont do jack sh*t for Ukraine. The question is whats next. Putin has be vocal about wanting the Baltic States (NATO members) and Finland back under russian control. NATO will fall beyond irrelevant if they fail to defend any of these four from Russian invasion.

Yes, that is the question.

China aren't going to risk a war over the Ukraine, they would rather do it over Taiwan, something that matters to them.

If that happens, it would be akin to Poland/Pearl Harbor on the European and Pacific fronts.

I think if push comes to shove between the two, the USA is leaving Ukraine to the EU and Nato and they would intervene on Taiwan, especially as they have key assets in the Pacific in Guam/Pearl as well as a an entire continental shoreline....

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Yes, that is the question.

China aren't going to risk a war over the Ukraine, they would rather do it over Taiwan, something that matters to them.

If that happens, it would be akin to Poland/Pearl Harbor on the European and Pacific fronts.

I think if push comes to shove between the two, the USA is leaving Ukraine to the EU and Nato and they would intervene on Taiwan, especially as they have key assets in the Pacific in Guam/Pearl as well as a an entire continental shoreline....

the russians already have 100k on the border, and troops and support units are already being brought in from other regions as far as the pacific.

how many of the 1.22m(?) odd troops the EU has, how many are able to (and are they prepared to send) to the Russian front with zero USA "boots on ground" support?

Just IMO, I cant see how the EU stops a Russian invasion without direct USA involvement

 

[Sphynx]

the russians already have 100k on the border, and troops and support units are already being brought in from other regions as far as the pacific.

how many of the 1.22m(?) odd troops the EU has, how many are able to (and are they prepared to send) to the Russian front with zero USA "boots on ground" support?

Just IMO, I cant see how the EU stops a Russian invasion without direct USA involvement

Are you forgetting Ukraine here?

This isn’t some sitting duck democracy. NATO will compliment what is already there.

They have 500,000 active personnel including reservists and one of the top 25 strongest air forces in the world.

The Ukraine army is 10 x the size of the ADF.

They would lose a full blown war with Russia, but they will be defending their turf and are no pushovers.

Russian will need a hell of a lot more than the 100k troops to completely conquer Ukraine.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Are you forgetting Ukraine here?

This isn’t some sitting duck democracy. NATO will compliment what is already there.

They have 500,000 active personnel including reservists and one of the top 25 strongest air forces in the world.

The Ukraine army is 10 x the size of the ADF.

They would lose a full blown war with Russia, but they will be defending their turf and are no pushovers.

Russian will need a hell of a lot more than the 100k troops to completely conquer Ukraine.

They will hurt them, but without the USA they will lose.

The yanks and the EU have neither the want or the will for a war imo

 

[Marcel Proust]

Strange they gave away the nukes

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Are you forgetting Ukraine here?

This isn’t some sitting duck democracy. NATO will compliment what is already there.

They have 500,000 active personnel including reservists and one of the top 25 strongest air forces in the world.

The Ukraine army is 10 x the size of the ADF.

They would lose a full blown war with Russia, but they will be defending their turf and are no pushovers.

Russian will need a hell of a lot more than the 100k troops to completely conquer Ukraine.

You can't really compare it to afghanistan, vietnam etc. because a war between powers won't be a war of hearts and minds and the end humanitarian result will be pretty horrific.

Just IMO, I cant see how the EU stops a Russian invasion without direct USA involvement

Poland

 

[Ned_Flanders]

You can't really compare it to afghanistan, vietnam etc. because a war between powers won't be a war of hearts and minds and the end humanitarian result will be pretty horrific.


Poland

Poland and Ukraine isn't enough to stop the Russian army annexing the Ukraine. It will just see their troops head further west in retaliation

I strongly believe in a free and independent ukraine, but the die on this was cast long ago

 

[Taylor]

Although I think a war in the Ukraine would be beneficial to opinion polls, economy and moving on from covid-19 for the US I think they need to motivate the US people much more than usual.

Not a good time to be a marine deployed to guard the US embassy. It would be a horrible shame for something to happen to that building attributed to Russian action that puts 20 young and attractive faces on the news for two weeks as casualties of a monster needing to be bled in retribution.