Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

Hey all,

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Saint]

Yeh fair. So if Ukraine loses Kharkiv they should negotiate?

Well I mean Ukranian nationalism does have some pretty dicey history.

Hypothetical, no reason why it would be short lived. Once again ill post this, neutrality has worked in the past
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finlandization
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austria–Soviet_Union_relations

The Finish military was on the verge of collapse. It had no air force left, no artillery and Russia had tripled it's manpower from the initial invasion (150k became 450k) and had broken through the (only) defensive line.

In this instance, Russia has fewer troops committed than what they started with. The front has reduced (doesn't include Belarus) and Ukraine has restricted, but near unlimited, arms supplies. The front is barely moving.

When the Ukrainians say they should negotiate, that's when they should negotiate. Any outside body trying to pressure them to undermines what they're doing. And what they're doing is trying to stave off ethnic cleansing. A far nobler mission than the Russians' land grab and empire building.

 

[Zidane98]

Low key based take

Why is it a low key based take? Russia's origins lay in the Grand Duchy of Moscow AKA Moscovia. Most of Russian territory is annexed or invaded. And the Russian federation didn't exist until 1991 either. Russian SFSR is a different state. Russia is a fake state, a collection of invaded territories.


China has stated the Treaties of Peking in 1860 was unequal and want their land back:




Chechnya, Dagestan & co didn't want to join the Russian federation when the USSR were collapsed but were forced to do so militarily.


Mongolia is the rightful owner to much of Russia's territory. Crimea - Russians are not indigenous to the territory. In the second world war they forced out tartars and are ethnically cleansing them again. If Russia want to use historical arguments than they must cede Crimea back to Turkey, the successor state to the Ottoman empire. However, Erdogan, the leader of Turkey has spoken on the matter:




Also, Lithuania wants Smolensk back as the original owner of the area:




Need we go on? Russia likes to pick and choose which agreements it does and does not recognise.

 

[Zidane98]

Yeh fair. So if Ukraine loses Kharkiv they should negotiate?

Should Russia negotiate if Ukraine is able to destroy the Black Sea fleet completely along with Kerch Bridge? That would leave Russia's occupation pretty untenable.

Well I mean Ukranian nationalism does have some pretty dicey history.

Hypothetical, no reason why it would be short lived. Once again ill post this, neutrality has worked in the past
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finlandization
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austria–Soviet_Union_relations

Neutrality won't work for Ukraine any longer. Every single agreement between Russia &Ukraine has been unilaterally violated by Russia with absolutely zero justification on absolutely false pretenses. Whatever the result of this war Ukraine will never be a security partner again with Russia. Putin realises this and that's why he's trying everything he can to undermine Ukraine. Lies about Poland/Hungary wanting Ukranian territory. Laughable annexations that have no real or legal basis. Repeated declarations that Ukraine isn't really or never was a sovereign state. Reported declarations that Ukranians are really just Russians, Ukranian culture isn't real etc etc/

Ukraine to Russia is what occupied France was to Nazi Germany. Putin is Hitler. This war will continue because Putin's terms are not a negotiation and it will only end when Putin is either dead or is forced to end it because the cost becomes too great to Russia.

 

[Mobbs]

Should Russia negotiate if Ukraine is able to destroy the Black Sea fleet completely along with Kerch Bridge? That would leave Russia's occupation pretty untenable.

Kind of the Azov Sea fleet now as that's where all their ships are huddled.

 

[Saint]

Kind of the Azov Sea fleet now as that's where all their ships are huddled.

Mostly to protect the supplies coming by sea because the bridge is dodgy.

 

[Andre]

Why is it a low key based take? Russia's origins lay in the Grand Duchy of Moscow AKA Moscovia. Most of Russian territory is annexed or invaded. And the Russian federation didn't exist until 1991 either. Russian SFSR is a different state. Russia is a fake state, a collection of invaded territories.


China has stated the Treaties of Peking in 1860 was unequal and want their land back:




Chechnya, Dagestan & co didn't want to join the Russian federation when the USSR were collapsed but were forced to do so militarily.


Mongolia is the rightful owner to much of Russia's territory. Crimea - Russians are not indigenous to the territory. In the second world war they forced out tartars and are ethnically cleansing them again. If Russia want to use historical arguments than they must cede Crimea back to Turkey, the successor state to the Ottoman empire. However, Erdogan, the leader of Turkey has spoken on the matter:




Also, Lithuania wants Smolensk back as the original owner of the area:




Need we go on? Russia likes to pick and choose which agreements it does and does not recognise.

The West should be trolling Putin. They should demand Russia negotiate Kalingrad back to the Germans, Vyborg to the Finns and the Kuril's to the Japanese. Though it's not really trolling, as all those things should be done once the Russia state eventually, inevitably collapses.

 

[Zidane98]

The West should be trolling Putin. They should demand Russia negotiate Kalingrad back to the Germans, Vyborg to the Finns and the Kuril's to the Japanese. Though it's not really trolling, as all those things should be done once the Russia state eventually, inevitably collapses.

Good point. Let's put together a list.

Russia should negotiate the return of:


Kaliningrad to Germany after it was degermanised at the end of WW2
Karelia - back to Finland
Checyna / Dagestan - to Mongolia
Kuril Islands - these were unfairly given to the USSR. Russia is not the USSR. Return to Japan.
Vladivostock back to China.
Smolensk - back to Lithuania.
Belgorod / Rostov - back to Ukraine



barreness can you think of any other territories Russia should return / cede to its rightful original owners?

 

[LittleG]

Good point. Let's put together a list.

Russia should negotiate the return of:


Kaliningrad to Germany after it was degermanised at the end of WW2
Karelia - back to Finland
Checyna / Dagestan - to Mongolia
Kuril Islands - these were unfairly given to the USSR. Russia is not the USSR.
Vladivostock back to China.
Smolensk - back to Lithuania.
Belgorod / Rostov - back to Ukraine



barreness can you think of any other territories Russia should return / cede to its rightful original owners?

Every other part except for Moscova would the right answer.

 

[Chadwiko]

barreness can you think of any other territories Russia should return / cede to its rightful original owners?

I've always had my eye on Vladivostok...

 

[Mobbs]

In short, the banner is of a national sporting hero of Ukraine who died defending his country. And the banner is created from a montage of images, of devoted Ukrainian fans of the sport who also lost their lives in the war.

At the beginning of the match in Stuttgart, Ukrainian fans unfurled a banner and a text book with an important message.

The banner depicts a portrait of Nazarii "Grenka" Hryntsevich - a representative of the "Sportowia" team ("Niva", Vinnytsia), who died on May 6, 2024 in Serebryansk Forest, Luhansk Region.

The image of Nazarius was created from photographs of 182 representatives of fanatical movements of Ukraine who died in the war.

- " Peace has a price " , - a text message. Another attempt to convey to all of Europe that their understanding of peace, which they write about on the boards during matches, has nothing to do with the real state of affairs.

While the biggest European football event of four years continues, thousands of football fans are fighting for the independence of Ukraine, protecting other countries of the continent as well.

Unfortunately, hundreds of fans have already died in this war. Many of them dreamed of seeing the performance of the Ukrainian national team at the Euro.

View attachment VID_41320619_015328_111 (1).mp4View attachment video_2024-06-26_08-20-33.mp4

From [Mysiagin TG]

An alternative text description which probably does a better job when translated:

During the Ukraine-Belgium match, fans unfurled a banner with the image of Nazarii "Grenka" Hryntsevich.

The image with the caption "Peace has a price", collected by artificial intelligence, contains 182 photos of fallen Ukrainian soldiers, who in civilian life belonged to fanatic movements of Ukrainian clubs.

21-year-old Nazarii Hryntsevich from Vinnytsia cheered for the local "Niva".

 

[Mobbs]

Two sisters, aged 12 & 15, injured by russian drone attack on Kherson.

Russian drone attack on Kherson injures 5, including children

Russian forces attacked the city of Kherson on June 26, injuring five people, including two children, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Dirty Bird]

Two sisters, aged 12 & 15, injured by russian drone attack on Kherson.

Russian drone attack on Kherson injures 5, including children

Russian forces attacked the city of Kherson on June 26, injuring five people, including two children, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said.

kyivindependent.com

Why are they attacking their own land and people?

 

[jatz14]

Nah, a settlement that still retains Ukrainian sovereignty. They are in a position of weakness though and will have to concede territory

That was just weird stuff with the Emperor to save face though, in reality Japan was completely defeated well before the nukes and was being fire bombed into the ground unchallenged. Blockaded, no oil, barely any food etc

Nah they could negotiate at any point except Zelensky made it illegal for himself. See the 2022 talks that got very close

Negotiations now ffs, stop the death for cm's of gains

Great. At current trajectory Ukraine's position gets worse and worse, their bargaining position follows this. Two more years of meat grinder and 100's of thousands more casualties for a worse position isn't my idea of a good time

You know, I've tried posting a response to this video like 4 times, but its hard, like posting a response to someone that says 2 plus 2 is 13. There are simple arguments to make, but if they could understand them, they would already know that 2 plus 2 doesn't equal 13. So, what to do?

So, here goes, my best shot.

Ukraine got caught with its pants down in the East, and lost a lot of territory to Russia quite quickly. Then things stabilised, and a front developed.

Since then, Ukraine took Kharkiv and Kherson. The only significant territorial gains since.

2 years of war since then, and Russias greatest territorial gain amounted to 27 km.

They have relaunched an offensive in Kharkiv, which captured some fields and small towns, and was then stopped, and is now being rolled back. So significantly, that Russia has announced that the only strategic objective in their line of attack, wasn't their objective. They just wanted the fields, So, a win to them?

Russia, in 2 years of war, where they are the aggressor, this is important, try to remember this, haven't achieved any significant tactical or strategic breakthrough.

Its the aggressor that needs breakthroughs, the defender wins just by preventing breakthroughs.

And, if we look at our crystal ball, looking for possible major strategic breakthroughs, there is only 1.

Russian forces in the south, are at the end of a long and vulnerable supple line. Break that, and Russian forces there are ****ed. Totally and utterly screwed. And if they are screwed, Crimea is screwed.

In the next 2 years, the only likely place of significant strategic breakthrough, lies in Ukraine's favour.

Do you understand? There is no possible route of Russian advance that tactically or strategically changes anything, beyond more fields and villages. The only possible strategic and tactical breakthrough is a Ukrainian one.

There is only one large military force reliant on only a couple of vulnerable supply routes, and its Russian.

And that force is the force that lies between Ukraine and Crimea.

You posit the question, if the Ukrainian army, currently advancing in Kharkiv, were to lose Kharkiv.

I posit an alternative.

What if the Russian army between Ukraine and Crimea falls apart?

A much more credible scenario. Whats Putins negotiating position then?

 

[Visions]

Nah they could negotiate at any point except Zelensky made it illegal for himself. See the 2022 talks that got very close

You mean the 2022 talks where Russia would agree to a ceasefire but as part of the deal wanted a clause where it would veto Ukraine getting any help from other countries if they happened to break the ceasefire?

Wonder why the Ukrainians turned down such a negotiation….

Now the Russians are adamant that any negotiation has to take into account land they dont even control and never had and where no Russian even lives.

Great deal. Ukrainians should be jumping all over that…..

 

[barreness]

The Finish military was on the verge of collapse. It had no air force left, no artillery and Russia had tripled it's manpower from the initial invasion (150k became 450k) and had broken through the (only) defensive line.

In this instance, Russia has fewer troops committed than what they started with. The front has reduced (doesn't include Belarus) and Ukraine has restricted, but near unlimited, arms supplies. The front is barely moving.

I think you have a optimistic view of Ukraines position but fairo. Comparing current fronts to the opening salvos of the invasion seems convenient, what has occurred within the last year ish since the failed counter attack is more representative imo

When the Ukrainians say they should negotiate, that's when they should negotiate. Any outside body trying to pressure them to undermines what they're doing.

This is fine as a general rule but almost their entire materiel is from outside bodies, of course the have an influence as to their decisions. If the US cut off supply they would be forced very quickly to deal, therefore the US does have a large say

And what they're doing is trying to stave off ethnic cleansing. A far nobler mission than the Russians' land grab and empire building.

Of course

 

[barreness]

Why is it a low key based take? Russia's origins lay in the Grand Duchy of Moscow AKA Moscovia. Most of Russian territory is annexed or invaded. And the Russian federation didn't exist until 1991 either. Russian SFSR is a different state. Russia is a fake state, a collection of invaded territories.


China has stated the Treaties of Peking in 1860 was unequal and want their land back:




Chechnya, Dagestan & co didn't want to join the Russian federation when the USSR were collapsed but were forced to do so militarily.


Mongolia is the rightful owner to much of Russia's territory. Crimea - Russians are not indigenous to the territory. In the second world war they forced out tartars and are ethnically cleansing them again. If Russia want to use historical arguments than they must cede Crimea back to Turkey, the successor state to the Ottoman empire. However, Erdogan, the leader of Turkey has spoken on the matter:




Also, Lithuania wants Smolensk back as the original owner of the area:




Need we go on? Russia likes to pick and choose which agreements it does and does not recognise.

You have the most insane arguments. Russia is trying to do empire? I agree, this is bad. So you suggest we reinstate the Mongolian and Ottoman empires? ok champ, they weren't a collection of invaded territories?

Like every state is a collection of invaded territories, this makes no sense

 

[barreness]

Should Russia negotiate if Ukraine is able to destroy the Black Sea fleet completely along with Kerch Bridge? That would leave Russia's occupation pretty untenable.

Black sea fleet is nothing due to the the Montreux Convention. It's interesting they haven't kept up the attack on the bridge;
Civilian infrastructure? nah,
Don't have the weaponry? maybe,
Fear of Russia's reprisals? also maybe

Russia has established a land bridge to Crimea(clearly a large motivation for the invasion) so the bridge doesn't matter so much atm. Perhaps they are still confident of recapturing Donetsk and Luhansk and figure if the bridge was destroyed then Russia would never accept a peace deal

Neutrality won't work for Ukraine any longer. Every single agreement between Russia &Ukraine has been unilaterally violated by Russia with absolutely zero justification on absolutely false pretenses. Whatever the result of this war Ukraine will never be a security partner again with Russia. Putin realises this and that's why he's trying everything he can to undermine Ukraine. Lies about Poland/Hungary wanting Ukranian territory. Laughable annexations that have no real or legal basis. Repeated declarations that Ukraine isn't really or never was a sovereign state. Reported declarations that Ukranians are really just Russians, Ukranian culture isn't real etc etc/

I think you're probably right on the initial assertion, could end up with a west Ukraine under NATO, a partition is the last thing they should want though
Neutrality means no security partnerships
If it becomes a failed state I've no doubt Poland and Hungary would seek to add partitions which have sizeable ethnic enclaves.

Yeh of course Vlad talks a lot of shit

Ukraine to Russia is what occupied France was to Nazi Germany. Putin is Hitler. This war will continue because Putin's terms are not a negotiation and it will only end when Putin is either dead or is forced to end it because the cost becomes too great to Russia.

Yeh we've been through this before, it's really not analogous to WW2 and Hitler, that is your safe place I guess. Further escalation and drawing down of sides could well lead to WW3 though, that's what we're seeing

 

[barreness]

You know, I've tried posting a response to this video like 4 times, but its hard, like posting a response to someone that says 2 plus 2 is 13. There are simple arguments to make, but if they could understand them, they would already know that 2 plus 2 doesn't equal 13. So, what to do?

So, here goes, my best shot.

Ukraine got caught with its pants down in the East, and lost a lot of territory to Russia quite quickly. Then things stabilised, and a front developed.

Since then, Ukraine took Kharkiv and Kherson. The only significant territorial gains since.

I'd say both cities were not captured, overextending a few troops into a region does not mean control. But yes UKraine did reassert control west of the river

2 years of war since then, and Russias greatest territorial gain amounted to 27 km.

They have relaunched an offensive in Kharkiv, which captured some fields and small towns, and was then stopped, and is now being rolled back. So significantly, that Russia has announced that the only strategic objective in their line of attack, wasn't their objective. They just wanted the fields, So, a win to them?

I think most(even in this thread) suggested this was an attempt to stretch Ukraine's manpower, I'm not sure it's being rolled back

Russia, in 2 years of war, where they are the aggressor, this is important, try to remember this, haven't achieved any significant tactical or strategic breakthrough.

I'd agree, they made those in the first few weeks and it's been attritional since

Its the aggressor that needs breakthroughs, the defender wins just by preventing breakthroughs.

But Ukraine's stated objective is to reconquer all occupied territory, which they've failed to do. The annexed territories obviously aren't all held by Russia so this is were the negotiations would centre

And, if we look at our crystal ball, looking for possible major strategic breakthroughs, there is only 1.

Russian forces in the south, are at the end of a long and vulnerable supple line. Break that, and Russian forces there are ****ed. Totally and utterly screwed. And if they are screwed, Crimea is screwed.

In the next 2 years, the only likely place of significant strategic breakthrough, lies in Ukraine's favour.

Do you understand? There is no possible route of Russian advance that tactically or strategically changes anything, beyond more fields and villages. The only possible strategic and tactical breakthrough is a Ukrainian one.

Ok so Ukraine, which hasn't shown the inclination nor the materiel to make a massive gain, will swipe through defensive lines that they threw everything at last year and failed without making a dent. Where does the dramatic change come from?

There is only one large military force reliant on only a couple of vulnerable supply routes, and its Russian.

Ukraine is incredible vulnerable, they rely almost completely on politics outside their control for everything to maintain even current positions

And that force is the force that lies between Ukraine and Crimea.

You posit the question, if the Ukrainian army, currently advancing in Kharkiv, were to lose Kharkiv.

I posit an alternative.

What if the Russian army between Ukraine and Crimea falls apart?

A much more credible scenario. Whats Putins negotiating position then?

Well I disagree with your credibility thing but this would be devastating for Russia, I'd imagine negotiating positions would swing back Ukraine and perhaps Crimea being some kind of autonomous thingy

 

[barreness]

You mean the 2022 talks where Russia would agree to a ceasefire but as part of the deal wanted a clause where it would veto Ukraine getting any help from other countries if they happened to break the ceasefire?

Wonder why the Ukrainians turned down such a negotiation….

Now the Russians are adamant that any negotiation has to take into account land they dont even control and never had and where no Russian even lives.

Great deal. Ukrainians should be jumping all over that…..

I take it you never low ball on gumtree

 

[Saint]

I think you have a optimistic view of Ukraines position but fairo. Comparing current fronts to the opening salvos of the invasion seems convenient, what has occurred within the last year ish since the failed counter attack is more representative imo

This is fine as a general rule but almost their entire materiel is from outside bodies, of course the have an influence as to their decisions. If the US cut off supply they would be forced very quickly to deal, therefore the US does have a large say

Of course

Iran, North Korea, India and China also have a say in Russia's decisions then? Without NK and Iran, Russia would be struggling. Without India and China, there would be total economic collapse in Russia.

If Ukraine are willing to fight, the west should supply the weapons. If they let Ukraine be taken, the Baltics and Central Asia don't stand a chance.

 

[jatz14]

I take it you never low ball on gumtree

If you don't come up, it's not a low ball, it's the price.

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[jatz14]

I'd say both cities were not captured, overextending a few troops into a region does not mean control. But yes UKraine did reassert control west of the river

I think most(even in this thread) suggested this was an attempt to stretch Ukraine's manpower, I'm not sure it's being rolled back

I'd agree, they made those in the first few weeks and it's been attritional since

But Ukraine's stated objective is to reconquer all occupied territory, which they've failed to do. The annexed territories obviously aren't all held by Russia so this is were the negotiations would centre

Ok so Ukraine, which hasn't shown the inclination nor the materiel to make a massive gain, will swipe through defensive lines that they threw everything at last year and failed without making a dent. Where does the dramatic change come from?

Ukraine is incredible vulnerable, they rely almost completely on politics outside their control for everything to maintain even current positions

Well I disagree with your credibility thing but this would be devastating for Russia, I'd imagine negotiating positions would swing back Ukraine and perhaps Crimea being some kind of autonomous thingy

Ukraine, that is the only country to have made significant gains in over 2 years?

Ukraine, that is still producing new brigades?

Ukraine, that is able to rotate troops off the front line for r and r because at no point have they been forced to put everything on the line?

Ukraine, that is still pulling from the approx 3000 Soviet era T64s left in the country and upgrading them, to the extent T64S can be, faster than they are being lost. They aren't even fully utilising all the agreements they have in place, to upgrade them?

Ukraine, that is the defender, who's role is to stop the aggressor, an aggressor who hasn't been able to move to any meaningful extent in over 2 years?

I mean, Russia is the invader. Not making breakthroughs is a sign they cannot win, because they are the ones needing breakthroughs.

If they don't get a breakthrough and force Ukraine from the battlefield, then they face spending eternity losing men and equipment in a foreign country.

It doesn't matter how stoik the Russians are, or how much under Putins thumb, that will get old eventually.

You keep saying that Ukraine is exhausted. What metric are you using here?

Because as far as I can tell, that Ukraine asks for aid is the only metric you are using.

To me, a sign of sanity, and reality.
To you, a sign of weakness?

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[jatz14]

I'd say both cities were not captured, overextending a few troops into a region does not mean control. But yes UKraine did reassert control west of the river

I think most(even in this thread) suggested this was an attempt to stretch Ukraine's manpower, I'm not sure it's being rolled back

I'd agree, they made those in the first few weeks and it's been attritional since

But Ukraine's stated objective is to reconquer all occupied territory, which they've failed to do. The annexed territories obviously aren't all held by Russia so this is were the negotiations would centre

Ok so Ukraine, which hasn't shown the inclination nor the materiel to make a massive gain, will swipe through defensive lines that they threw everything at last year and failed without making a dent. Where does the dramatic change come from?

Ukraine is incredible vulnerable, they rely almost completely on politics outside their control for everything to maintain even current positions

Well I disagree with your credibility thing but this would be devastating for Russia, I'd imagine negotiating positions would swing back Ukraine and perhaps Crimea being some kind of autonomous thingy

Almost all countries rely on outside assistance when it comes to modern war.

It doesn't make them particularly vulnerable.

And I would point out Russia, with a military that was designed to be self reliant, now needs help.

Also, Ukraine is getting support from multiple areas. This makes them not particularly vulnerable to political whims. Not even the Orange ****.

There would need to be massive political change in many many countries to stop the aid flowing.

Ukraines position as regards foreign aid is as secure as possible imop.

Certainly more so than Russia's.

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[wannabejack]

Ukraines position as regards foreign aid is as secure as possible ...

Apr 2024
NATO members have agreed to start planning military support for Ukraine on a long-term basis.
“What we are discussing is not a NATO combat presence in Ukraine. We are discussing how we can coordinate and deliver support from outside Ukraine to Ukraine as NATO allies do,”

 

[Zidane98]

Yeh we've been through this before, it's really not analogous to WW2 and Hitler, that is your safe place I guess. Further escalation and drawing down of sides could well lead to WW3 though, that's what we're seeing

This isn't my safe place at all, I have former work colleagues who are Ukranian with family in Kharkiv. They're terrified. The parallels are stark in every way.