VRC Derby/Mackinnon Stakes Day 2015

[Duritz]

I see it as a good horse but just one rung below.
Very hard race the Myer - the real question for me is how Royal Descent on back of an ardous prep presents

I have MRDL going to a new level in her win last start. Her previous form was one rung below. Now, I think she's on that rung.

And yes you're right re Royal Descent. Doesn't peak often enough, for mine.

The BIG question IMO is the filly. If she repeats her last start run, she wins. No question. But fillies against the older horses in Spring often fail to bring their form from fillies grade.

 

[Gavin Excell]

I have MRDL going to a new level in her win last start. Her previous form was one rung below. Now, I think she's on that rung.

And yes you're right re Royal Descent. Doesn't peak often enough, for mine.

The BIG question IMO is the filly. If she repeats her last start run, she wins. No question. But fillies against the older horses in Spring often fail to bring their form from fillies grade.

Not going to leave La Passe out of quad after burning me last two times in feature mares races

 

[bombers21]

Don't mind Solicit or Amicus in the Myer Classic and they are at huge odds

 

[Duritz]

Don't mind Solicit or Amicus in the Myer Classic and they are at huge odds

Probably because they can't win.

 

[Main Man]

No love for Miss Rose De Lago in the Myer? I thought the $12 fixed was much longer than she deserved to be. Super win last start and probably gets own lead again.

Her last win was very good, just not one of mine, I don't trust her to run to that level consistently to be honest however $12 is not a bad price at all.

 

[iluvparis]

Backed MRDL last time but wasn't she suited by the pattern on the day?

Did consider her for a long time in what looks a very open race (like Big D - can't have the fave as a 3yo filly against the older mares in the spring) but have actually settled on Azkadellia as the likely improver of a huge ran at the Valley against the pattern.

 

[Duritz]

Backed MRDL last time but wasn't she suited by the pattern on the day?

Did consider her for a long time in what looks a very open race (like Big D - can't have the fave as a 3yo filly against the older mares in the spring) but have actually settled on Azkadellia as the likely improver of a huge ran at the Valley against the pattern.

Yes azkadelia was a great run. She wins I get the quaddie at the valley. But I'm not bitter.

MRDL might've been a bit advantaged by the pattern but she clearly still flew and went to a new level. And she will get her own lead on Saturday too.

 

[bombers21]

Probably because they can't win.

Now I understand

 

[year of the cat]

Don't mind Solicit or Amicus in the Myer Classic and they are at huge odds

Don't think Solicit can run a solid 1600 to win in this company. Happy to be proven wrong. Actually no I'm not.

 

[bombers21]

Don't think Solicit can run a solid 1600 to win in this company. Happy to be proven wrong. Actually no I'm not.

4th in the race last year only beaten 1.4L

 

[Main Man]

Mckinnon hard to get a read on, so much mixed form leading in, hard to get a guide on the Cox Plate as most were well beaten and track pattern had an influence, some had particularly tough runs.

I'm thinking the Toorak from might be the best suited here, I'm warming to Flamingo Star, different horse with the blinkers on, his run in the Toorak excellent coming from back with the fastest last 200M in the race, there is a bit of He's Your Man about him.

Stratum Star hard to knock also.

 

[Duritz]

Mckinnon hard to get a read on, so much mixed form leading in, hard to get a guide on the Cox Plate as most were well beaten and track pattern had an influence, some had particularly tough runs.

I'm thinking the Toorak from might be the best suited here, I'm warming to Flamingo Star, different horse with the blinkers on, his run in the Toorak excellent coming from back with the fastest last 200M in the race, there is a bit of He's Your Man about him.

Stratum Star hard to knock also.

The Toorak was a very strong race. I am forgiving anything that wasn't in the right part of the track at MV on Cox Plate day.

 

[The Dawes]

Probably because they can't win.

What did Bonaria pay last year in winning?

$30?

Very open race this year IMO.

Normally you'd discount ones like Jessy Belle at WFA but I think she's right in it - also think Solicit is overs @ $26.

 

[Main Man]

The Toorak was a very strong race. I am forgiving anything that wasn't in the right part of the track at MV on Cox Plate day.

I'm also going to be forgiving but so hard to get a true read on them on their runs last week, out of the Cox I like Happy Trails, he was very good in the Caulfield Stakes, that run is good enough to win this, he was unlucky in the Turnbull and his Cox Plate run was a complete write off, however how much has that run taken out of him? He either runs well or flops for mine.

Toorak was very strong, I think Statum Star is a gun miler who gets 2000M but is not at his best, he does come into the race with a faultless campaign however and one of the most likely to run to their level.

Flamingo Star was a great run in the Toorak, different horse with the blinkers so forget his form prior to his last two starts, think he is another set to peak and a bit like He's Your Man last year who was coming through strong handicap form.

Trying to work around Magic Hurricane back from 2400M up to WFA.

 

[Gavin Excell]

I'm also going to be forgiving but so hard to get a true read on them on their runs last week, out of the Cox I like Happy Trails, he was very good in the Caulfield Stakes, that run is good enough to win this, he was unlucky in the Turnbull and his Cox Plate run was a complete write off, however how much has that run taken out of him? He either runs well or flops for mine.

Toorak was very strong, I think Statum Star is a gun miler who gets 2000M but is not at his best, he does come into the race with a faultless campaign however and one of the most likely to run to their level.

Flamingo Star was a great run in the Toorak, different horse with the blinkers so forget his form prior to his last two starts, think he is another set to peak and a bit like He's Your Man last year who was coming through strong handicap form.

Trying to work around Magic Hurricane back from 2400M up to WFA.

I note TAB fixed Stratum Star has come in from 10s when first posted to $7.50 second favourite in what is a wide open market. I like it a lot actually. Think its only one that may have been targetted this race. Can see it racing on the pace and be given every opportunity

 

[Duritz]

I note TAB fixed Stratum Star has come in from 10s when first posted to $7.50 second favourite in what is a wide open market. I like it a lot actually. Think its only one that may have been targetted this race. Can see it racing on the pace and be given every opportunity

My query is has to hold a peak three runs in a row

 

[Gavin Excell]

My query is has to hold a peak three runs in a row

Fair point.

Once i look beyond S Star race becomes bit of a lottery

 

[Gavin Excell]

Re the Derby - people sold on Tarzino?

 

[JuddsABlue]

Re the Derby - people sold on Tarzino?

Happy to take him on at current market, though was on him last week and really like him, 2.50 seems way short over a long trek

 

[Gavin Excell]

Happy to take him on at current market, though was on him last week and really like him, 2.50 seems way short over a long trek

It was a big run though against the pattern and all. Still its a hard game taking that price. VRC Derby is a dodgy betting prop generally. Im looking at 16s Shards especially if can get an easy lead

 

[Main Man]

Re the Derby - people sold on Tarzino?

I can't have him but the same time I cannot really have anything else to beat him, watch race I reckon.

No surprise to see him win the race but not surprise to see him running on strongly when the race is over again.

 

[Main Man]

It was a big run though against the pattern and all. Still its a hard game taking that price. VRC Derby is a dodgy betting prop generally. Im looking at 16s Shards especially if can get an easy lead

It was a great run against the bias but he was entitled to run on, if he was a $5-$6 chance fair enough but I cannot possibly confidently take $2.50 about a horse with his racing style who hasn't proven himself to be anything other than an okay horse.

 

[terminators]

Even pattern or run on bias Tarzino just wins IMO.

Leaders track he runs on similar to last week

 

[JuddsABlue]

It was a big run though against the pattern and all. Still its a hard game taking that price. VRC Derby is a dodgy betting prop generally. Im looking at 16s Shards especially if can get an easy lead

Taking in what MM just said, feel like Shards is one of the few things offering a glimmer of hope of being backable

Will probably leave it till the day and see if anything sticks it head out in the market

 

[rideclutch]

Dunno about the Mackinnon market - very upside down for mine. I'd rather back the better horses who weren't set for the race tbh, Cox Plate runners very backable off forgive runs IMO.

Contributer 9 bucks give me strength...