Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 5 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Anja_Nees]

This is where losing guys like Lipinski hurts. At the time wasn’t a big deal given our depth, but now he’d be handy with some of our older mids realistically only have a few years left and him being in the right age bracket.

Backline is still a problem in both the short and long term. Say neither Keath or Bruce go on beyond this year, which would have to be some chance, we are down to Gardner, a 33 year old Jones and a 19 year old Busslinger. Really lacking some of those mid sized defenders too. The only one on our list is Buku who they are now playing forward, a role he’ll unlikely play for us given those ahead of him. Cleary is the other, hope we get some games into him

Suspect Lipinski would still have been more or less the 23rd man every week under Bevo anyway. I liked him and would have kept him, but I don’t think Bevo was going to include him in the midfield rotation.

 

[ArNcHiSe]

Whether through the draft or trade, the dogs need to completely restructure their midfield. A midfield that completely relies on Libba to do all the grunt work is failing and has been failing for quite a while.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Suspect Lipinski would still have been more or less the 23rd man every week under Bevo anyway. I liked him and would have kept him, but I don’t think Bevo was going to include him in the midfield rotation.

He’d probably hit too many targets for Bevo’s liking

 

[DueWest]

We currently have draft picks 3&4 who are we targeting ? Or do we just trade both for Harley Reid ?

 

[_Cerberus_]

We currently have draft picks 3&4 who are we targeting ? Or do we just trade both for Harley Reid ?

On a serious note. If North or Hawks get pick one, zero chance Reid is getable. Neither will budge even for 10 draft picks.

I think West Coast may be the only club that may entertain given they can still land some highly rated WA talls sliding back, if it also got themselves a haul of high end picks to rebuild on. Have a lot of holes and still some older players to move on.

 

[LittleG]

We currently have draft picks 3&4 who are we targeting ? Or do we just trade both for Harley Reid ?

We aren’t getting Reid.

But that is ok, because we need some quality, so 2 first round picks is going to help our list build incredibly.

Really hoping to death ride the Lions this year. I can see them dropping a bit, but not below 12 on the ladder. So their pick will only be pick 6 or later. There are going to be some very good midfielders available then.

Nathan Philactides is one I like from Oakley. But the more I see him, the more I think he is a top 5 player. Quick with a great kick. I am sure others will emerge later in the year too.

 

[_Cerberus_]

We aren’t getting Reid.

But that is ok, because we need some quality, so 2 first round picks is going to help our list build incredibly.

Really hoping to death ride the Lions this year. I can see them dropping a bit, but not below 12 on the ladder. So their pick will only be pick 6 or later. There are going to be some very good midfielders available then.

Nathan Philactides is one I like from Oakley. But the more I see him, the more I think he is a top 5 player. Quick with a great kick. I am sure others will emerge later in the year too.

Which players closely resembles Petracca in playing style and build in this years draft you reckon? We need a big bodied beast that can turn games on his own just powering out of the middle like no one else exists.

 

[Golden_6]

Club is firmly in Cam Rayner’s ear. Not sure if anything will come from it but there is serious want there on our end.

Probably not the best target IMO. Has the tools but given the Dunkley fiasco, they’ll try and bleed us dry for a contracted player. Unless he improves this year, you’re buying potential in someone that’s already had many development years rather that output.

 

[Del203211]

Sorry I don’t buy the whole we are too slow..

Defending and pressure takes fitness and desire.

Our team from 2015 round one playing absolute manic, quick and exciting footy:

B: Boyd, Talia, Goodes
HB: Murphy, Morris, JJ
C: Jong, Bont, Grant
HF: Crameri, Redpath, Dahlhaus
F: Stringer, Boyd, Dickson
R: Minson, Macrae, Wallis
Int: Roughead, Wood, Picken, Honeychurch

Where’s the leg speed there?
JJ and Murphy off half back? Yeah sure but we have Dale and still have JJ.
Grant maybe? Yeah but did he ever impact games with that speed?
Crameri was quick.
Midfield was still slow but was so solid.

Dahlhaus, Honeychurch, Picken, Wallis, Jong - just completely and utterly ruthless with pressure.

Team round one 2016:

B: Boyd, Adams, Morris

HB: Suckling, Wood, Murphy

C: Hunter, Stevens, JJ

HF: Picken, Stringer, Macrae

F: Dahlhaus, Boyd, Daniel

R: Roughead, Bontempelli, Wallis

I/C: Biggs, Dunkley, Libba, McLean

Obviously got better defensively, but did we have legit leg speed?

 

[hutchy31]

Sorry I don’t buy the whole we are too slow..

Defending and pressure takes fitness and desire.

Our team from 2015 round one playing absolute manic, quick and exciting footy:

B: Boyd, Talia, Goodes
HB: Murphy, Morris, JJ
C: Jong, Bont, Grant
HF: Crameri, Redpath, Dahlhaus
F: Stringer, Boyd, Dickson
R: Minson, Macrae, Wallis
Int: Roughead, Wood, Picken, Honeychurch

Where’s the leg speed there?
JJ and Murphy off half back? Yeah sure but we have Dale and still have JJ.
Grant maybe? Yeah but did he ever impact games with that speed?
Crameri was quick.
Midfield was still slow but was so solid.

Dahlhaus, Honeychurch, Picken, Wallis, Jong - just completely and utterly ruthless with pressure.

Team round one 2016:

B: Boyd, Adams, Morris

HB: Suckling, Wood, Murphy

C: Hunter, Stevens, JJ

HF: Picken, Stringer, Macrae

F: Dahlhaus, Boyd, Daniel

R: Roughead, Bontempelli, Wallis

I/C: Biggs, Dunkley, Libba, McLean

Obviously got better defensively, but did we have legit leg speed?

Similarly, Collingwood's list looked atrocious entering 2022. No decent talls at either end except Moore, a midfield relying on ageing Pendlebury and Sidebottom etc. Now they look like world beaters when they're on.

There is more than enough talent on the current list. Effort, composure, commitment and adherence to a good game plan coupled with decent team selection and coaching will see the dogs contending. Unfortunately we haven't seen much of that consistently since around the third quarter of the 2021 GF.

 

[Del203211]

Similarly, Collingwood's list looked atrocious entering 2022. No decent talls at either end except Moore, a midfield relying on ageing Pendlebury and Sidebottom etc. Now they look like world beaters when they're on.

There is more than enough talent on the current list. Effort, composure, commitment and adherence to a good game plan coupled with decent team selection and coaching will see the dogs contending. Unfortunately we haven't seen much of that consistently since around the third quarter of the 2021 GF.

Agree 100%.

It’s game plan, coaching, effort and commitment to defend. The list is there and it’s not over rated.

 

[BLACAE]

I dont get what some are talking about. Our team can win these games but for the love of God they need to want it. Our skills, particularly from the Mids was pathetic. with the midfielders with decent disposal Libba (whos under the most pressure) and Williams were our best with both at 72%.

The rest:

Macca: 62% some of which were under no pressure and his kicks forward were almost a hindrance.

Bont: 60% and many in the backline because we got consistently smashed out of the middle.

Baker: 54% so missed a player ever second time he touched the ball.

Smith: 52% and again many weren't under huge pressure.

Compare that to Melbourne:
Brayshaw: 94%
Harmes: 87%
Hunter: 75%
Oliver: 70% (and he's notoriously has shit disposal)
Langdon: 64%
Petracca: 50% (but he moves it forward at every opportunity)


Look at tackles
65 - 53 Demons way
21 - 9 I50 tackles Demons way (this could partly be because we're tall but we can't tackle when we constantly kick it to the opposition)

Contested possessions
125 - 140 Dogs way

Uncont possessions
255 - 233 Demons way

Intercept possessions
Other than English, the next best was Scott who wasn't a defender. Abover Scott however was Brayshaw and Gawn and above our next best (Bont/Macca) were Pretracca, Oliver, Grundy, Brown, Harmes and McVee

What this tells me is that they are happy to lose the Contest at the source because they outnumber us in defence and spread far better than us. The only contest they care about is the Centre Bounce and they killed us there.

The biggest shining light was Timmy. He competed well against 2 rucks who have historically given him a bath. He intercepted well, rucked well and even got aggressive on the ground. Thought him, Ads and Libba were our best, in that order and then daylight to Daniel and Richards.

They better come out and want it next week but that won't do much to alleviate the downhill skier team until we can play hard against a top 4 team.


On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[_Cerberus_]

We ranked pretty poorly in ball movement / speed for the opening round. Shows we don't just need midfielders in the offseason, but we need ones that use the ball well and are athletic. A bit more power and speed in the legs in the team would be handy.

Speed kills: How run-and-gun footy dominated round one

 

[BEaston]

I dont get what some are talking about. Our team can win these games but for the love of God they need to want it. Our skills, particularly from the Mids was pathetic. with the midfielders with decent disposal Libba (whos under the most pressure) and Williams were our best with both at 72%.

The rest:

Macca: 62% some of which were under no pressure and his kicks forward were almost a hindrance.

Bont: 60% and many in the backline because we got consistently smashed out of the middle.

Baker: 54% so missed a player ever second time he touched the ball.

Smith: 52% and again many weren't under huge pressure.

Compare that to Melbourne:
Brayshaw: 94%
Harmes: 87%
Hunter: 75%
Oliver: 70% (and he's notoriously has s**t disposal)
Langdon: 64%
Petracca: 50% (but he moves it forward at every opportunity)


Look at tackles
65 - 53 Demons way
21 - 9 I50 tackles Demons way (this could partly be because we're tall but we can't tackle when we constantly kick it to the opposition)

Contested possessions
125 - 140 Dogs way

Uncont possessions
255 - 233 Demons way

Intercept possessions
Other than English, the next best was Scott who wasn't a defender. Abover Scott however was Brayshaw and Gawn and above our next best (Bont/Macca) were Pretracca, Oliver, Grundy, Brown, Harmes and McVee

What this tells me is that they are happy to lose the Contest at the source because they outnumber us in defence and spread far better than us. The only contest they care about is the Centre Bounce and they killed us there.

The biggest shining light was Timmy. He competed well against 2 rucks who have historically given him a bath. He intercepted well, rucked well and even got aggressive on the ground. Thought him, Ads and Libba were our best, in that order and then daylight to Daniel and Richards.

They better come out and want it next week but that won't do much to alleviate the downhill skier team until we can play hard against a top 4 team.


On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

It's a good point about our ball use. It's very rarely talked about to be honest. As a team, we're probably one of the worst in the league with our kicking skills.

 

[Mantis Toboggan]

It's a good point about our ball use. It's very rarely talked about to be honest. As a team, we're probably one of the worst in the league with our kicking skills.

I have no idea what happened to the handball club but those days are well and truly gone too. By hand or by foot, we’re not good enough.

Macrae is a big worry. He’s been my absolute favourite player since I started following footy in 2014/15. There’s a lot of skills he’s never had…pace, marking ability, regular goal kicking…but the talents he does have were so exceptional that it made him a uniquely brilliant player. If he can no longer find a teammate then I really worry for his career. I sincerely hope he is just suffering from the team not clicking in general.

 

[CarnTheScray]

Macraes kicking has definitely gotten worse. Doesn’t help he never really had pace but he was always a good kick, now that has gone too.

Same with Daniel. His one strength is no more.

 

[BIG_BONTS]

Low on confidence

 

[doggies ftw]

It's a good point about our ball use. It's very rarely talked about to be honest. As a team, we're probably one of the worst in the league with our kicking skills.

What’s causing good kicks of the footy to now regularly miss easy kicks though? Confidence I guess.

Macraes never been damaging but he’s never had an issue finding short to mid range targets. Daniel was once considered among the best kicks in the league now he can’t hit a 20m open kick, even Bont is a turnover merchant at the moment.

It’s not like the team is categorically poor disposers of the footy, throw in Libba in the midfield who is elite for an inside mid. Dale, Richards, & Doc behind the ball. Williams & Scott are technically great kicks. English elite, JJ whilst he can spray them at speed I always rated as one of our best kicks at hitting up a target inside 50. Baz & Treloar are no worse than most other burst mids getting around who all tend to spray their kicks at times.

Yeah at times we’ve overdone the hack kicks in our bottom 6 piling in the likes of Rourke, McComb, Hannan etc but I don’t think on the weekend we even had too many of those types.

I mean look at our 2016 grandfinal side. Boyd, Moz, Wood in the backline. Clay, Dunkley, Cordy up front. Dahl, Hunter, Picken etc

Is that side really more skilled by foot than the current side? Or is there other factors? To my eye it seems like there’s just a total break down in our transition where for the most part there’s just no one to kick to. How often do we roll off half back and the whole field is set and it’s just completely stagnant?

We then either try to force something which is not there and turn it over or mostly just kick long to a contest. Through lack of workrate or gameplan or whatever I’m not sure but we’re constantly under pressure, were never really finding space with good options further up the field to kick to, and then when we do get an open kick now we miss it because we’re so devoid of any confidence, there’s so much inferred pressure because we’re under the pump so much that even when we’re not we still feel it.

There’s something wrong but I really don’t think it’s as simple as saying our team are poor kicks, when even elite kicks like Bont, Daniel and Dale are now struggling in our system. Why can’t we create any space on the ground? Why are we outnumbered behind the ball and in front of the ball, why can’t we generate easy link up uncontested chains like other teams?

The issues are deep to be honest but yeah I’ve got no solutions but all I’ll Say is even the worst AFL level kickers usually look great when not under pressure with plenty of viable options to hit up

 

[Mantis Toboggan]

Low on confidence

You’re a good lad, you’ll get through it.

 

[HK_Bulldog]

We've been topping up for 4 year's now and the list is getting worse. Might be time to switch back to the draft. Especially if we crash out of the 8 this year.

 

[Mofra]

We've been topping up for 4 year's now and the list is getting worse. Might be time to switch back to the draft. Especially if we crash out of the 8 this year.

We've added a no 1 pick and a no 2 pick in that time, with Busslinger added last year.
We do tend to hold our first rounders where no FS/NGA picks apply. I'd argue we've been doing both.

I do want us to rookie a ruck again but I'm not sure we want open that can of worms again.

 

[Unorth]

We ranked pretty poorly in ball movement / speed for the opening round. Shows we don't just need midfielders in the offseason, but we need ones that use the ball well and are athletic. A bit more power and speed in the legs in the team would be handy.

Speed kills: How run-and-gun footy dominated round one

Playing all of Bruce, Keath, Jones, English, Naughton, Marra and Darcy this doesn’t surprise me. Not accounting for our slower smaller players too.

The ‘4 talls’ thing sounds exciting but footy is trending the other way. Since we can’t hit targets we’re just going to get ran off the ground. Especially in our fwd 50 with Cody and VDM unavailable.

 

[Testekill]

I do want us to rookie a ruck again but I'm not sure we want open that can of worms again.

That seems to have a tendency to bite us in the ass.

 

[doggies ftw]

Playing all of Bruce, Keath, Jones, English, Naughton, Marra and Darcy this doesn’t surprise me. Not accounting for our slower smaller players too.

The ‘4 talls’ thing sounds exciting but footy is trending the other way. Since we can’t hit targets we’re just going to get ran off the ground. Especially in our fwd 50 with Cody and VDM unavailable.

I agree but also I’m not concerned that footy is trending the other way, it’s very hard to win a flag doing what everyone else is doing - better to go the other way and try and pinch one before people catch up IMO. Although not sure I like being that tall at both ends, I think the 4 talls up front with just two genuine talls down back and some hybrid interceptor types would be a better mix.

It was obviously a failure on the weekend but I’m not ready to write it off, there was just so many other issues that contributed too and the payoff is very high if we find a way to get this right. The success off the tall forward line needs quick direct ball movement up the ground, but we just refuse/are incapable of doing that. I think we can get it right though, Melbourne probably weren’t the best team for us to come up against fresh trying to play a different way - as they grind us down into stagnant crap at the best of times.

I’d love to see it at Etihad this week but now Lobbs gone anyway so that’s probably it done for the foreseeable future

 

[TiAn_]

I said it at the time and it wasn’t a popular opinion but there was a genuine downside to trading our way out of a raft of picks in both 20/21 drafts for Marra and Darcy. It meant we were only able to make shallow cuts to the list those years. Not ideal at that point in our cycle, after trading out our 2nd in 2019 and only having Smith and Weightman from 2018/2019 as best 23 regulars. You can’t look a gift horse in the mouth, but it was a double edged sword.

It’s obviously fantastic to have a couple of great KPP prospects but it seems like it’s come home to roost a bit now that we’ve had limited additions to the best 23 for 4 straight drafts, meaning we’re probably short 4-5 additional earlier picks regenerating the bottom of the list.

It’s one of the things that I think has hamstrung Beveridge a bit.

Hopefully last year’s draft reversed the trend and Jedd, Charlie and Harvey are soon pushing for selection. Along with two first rounders to come this year.