The Run Home
With only six weeks to go in the 2016 home and away season, the following considers how each club should fare on their road to finals. Although mathematically there are a few more possibilities, after looking at the draw, I've included first through ninth. So, here it is; the run home.
1. Hawthorn (13-0-3)
Richmond, Carlton, Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast (away), Collingwood
Following a brilliant win against Sydney on the weekend, Hawthorn sit atop the AFL ladder at the conclusion of round 17. A game clear but with a poorer percentage, it seems Hawthorn have done almost enough to secure a top two position come season end.
Richmond, Carlton, Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast (away), Collingwood
The Hawks should start strong favourites in the majority of their remaining games, with wins expected against five of their opponents. West Coast seems the toughest assignment, and depending on the ladder at round 22, could be a game to rest some ageing bodies. Though a win definitely plausible, a likely return would be 5-1. One thing to note however, is many of these games could be percentage boosters and keep the Hawks on top, should another team equal their record.
The run home: W,W,W,W,L,W
Season finish: 18 – 0 – 4
Look for Hawthorn to finish in pole position for a tilt at a fourth consecutive flag.
2. Adelaide (12-0-4)
Geelong (away), Essendon (home), Brisbane (home), Fremantle (away), Port Adelaide, West Coast (home)
Geelong (away), Essendon (home), Brisbane (home), Fremantle (away), Port Adelaide, West Coast (home)
After a rocky start to the season, Adelaide have notched eight wins on the trot, moving from 4-0-4 to 12-0-4, and with it taking second spot on the ladder. Whilst some of their remaining games seem secure, there are a few danger games for the crows.
Even with Port Adelaide sitting well down the ladder compared to their cross-town rivals, the derby is always a hard-fought match and this year should be no different. One to two games dropped seems reasonable, the first likely against Geelong this week.
The run home: L,W,W,W,L,W
Season finish: 16 – 0 – 6
3. Bulldogs (12-0-4)
St Kilda, Geelong (away), North Melbourne, Collingwood (home - ES), Essendon, Fremantle (away)
St Kilda, Geelong (away), North Melbourne, Collingwood (home - ES), Essendon, Fremantle (away)
A few periodic losses have kept the lid on over at the kennel. Despite a tightly bunched top eight, the Doggies have managed to find themselves a game clear in the top 4, and looking to consolidate a double-chance come finals. Although the Dogs have managed some good wins over Sydney, West Coast and Adelaide, they are 3-0-4 against top 8 sides, with a percentage of 87.9%. With perennial finalists again looking firm in 2016, the Dogs will garner a lot of neutral support in the finals. On the their way there, I'd expect two losses. One to Geelong down at the Cattery, and one other somewhere in the mix. Likely St Kilda, North or Collingwood.
The run home: W,L,W,L,W,W
Season finish: 16 – 0 – 6
4. GWS Giants (11-0-5)
Port Adelaide (away), Richmond (home), Gold Coast (away), West Coast (home), Fremantle (home), North Melbourne (away)
Port Adelaide (away), Richmond (home), Gold Coast (away), West Coast (home), Fremantle (home), North Melbourne (away)
Of the top 8, probably the least likely at the start of the year to be in contention for a top 4 finals birth. Ahead of schedule and looking dangerous, the Giants have proven they can take it up to the best. Although enduring some expected setbacks, GWS and their youngsters have what it takes to win a finals game.
Looking at their run home, they should manage three to four games without much fuss if they're the real deal, with the tougher games against West Coast and Port Adelaide. I've given them the home game and a loss away, leaving them in a percentage race for fourth. Whilst they are unlikely to go deep into September, any finals action will prove invaluable experience and give them a great foundation for 2017.
The run home: L,W,W,W,W,W
Season finish: 16 – 0 – 6
5. Sydney (11-0-5)
Carlton (home), Fremantle (away), Port Adelaide (home), St Kilda (away), North Melbourne (away), Richmond (home)
Carlton (home), Fremantle (away), Port Adelaide (home), St Kilda (away), North Melbourne (away), Richmond (home)
Despite having five losses on the board, Sydney still maintains the second highest percentage in the league, at 135.5%. With four of their five losses coming at a combined 20 points, the Swans could easily be sitting at the top of the ladder.
Having already endured the toughest part of their home and away season, the Swans now finish with only one game against a top 8 contender, North Melbourne. The expectation from coach John Longmire and his team should be six consecutive wins to round out the season.
The run home: W,W,W,W,W,W
Season finish: 17 – 0 – 5
6. West Coast (11-0-5)
Melbourne (home), Collingwood (away), Fremantle, GWS (away), GWS (away), Hawthorn (home), Adelaide (away)
Melbourne (home), Collingwood (away), Fremantle, GWS (away), GWS (away), Hawthorn (home), Adelaide (away)
Danger time for West Coast. Although the Eagles sit in equal 4th position on the ladder, remarkably, they have managed only a single win against another top 8 side. Even more worryingly, that came against North Melbourne, and during the Kangaroos form slump.
Eagles fans will be hoping to secure a home final in the lower bracket of the top 8, but will need at least the next three games to go in their favour. Potentially a danger game against the Pies in round 19, they should manage that, but not much more. One win from the last three plausible, I've given them a win over the Hawks.
The run home: W,W,W,L,W,L
Season finish: 15 – 0 – 7
7. Geelong (11-0-5)
Adelaide (home), Western Bulldogs (home), Essendon (Etihad), Richmond (MCG), Brisbane (away), Melbourne (home)
Adelaide (home), Western Bulldogs (home), Essendon (Etihad), Richmond (MCG), Brisbane (away), Melbourne (home)
After missing the finals for the first time in nine years, Geelong have against proved their worth with a solid home and away season. Starting with an upset win over premiers Hawthorn, the Cats have flourished with the introduction of Patrick Dangerfield. Combining with Joel Selwood, the duo have led the Cats to a 6-0-2 record against top 8 sides. Unfortunately, disappointing performances against weaker teams this year have left the Cats with only eleven wins, sitting 7th. Fortunately for them, the run home looks good.
Although Simonds Stadium (or Kardinia Park for those who remember it) is no longer the impenetrable fortress it was a few years ago, it's still a tough ask for a team to travel and win there. Should easily put away the final four games, the first two the only worry. One loss a possibility, but individually, can't really see it.
The run home: W,W,W,W,W,W
Season finish: 17 – 0 – 5
8. North Melbourne (10-0-6)
Collingwood (Etihad), St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn (MCG), Sydney (home), GWS (home)
Collingwood (Etihad), St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn (MCG), Sydney (home), GWS (home)
What a fall from grace. Starting the season with nine straight wins, North looked set for a finals birth and potential top 4 finish. However, with six losses from their previous seven games, all of that has come crashing to a halt. To make matters worse, five of those six losses were against top 8 sides, the other from their potential replacements, Port Adelaide.
This season, their record against other finals aspirants sits at 2-0-5, for a percentage of 83.4%. If that doesn't make for good reading, their run home looks even worse. A loss in the next two games would be disastrous for the Kangaroos, and it might come this week. With four losses likely to round out the season, unfortunately for supporters, this year might be over.
The run home: L,W,L,L,L,L
Season finish: 11 – 0 – 11
9. Port Adelaide (8-0-8)
GWS (home), Brisbane (away), Sydney (away), Melbourne (home) , Adelaide, Gold Coast (away)
GWS (home), Brisbane (away), Sydney (away), Melbourne (home) , Adelaide, Gold Coast (away)
Could Port Adelaide be this year's Steven Bradbury? Probably not, no. They're not going to win the flag. But Port definitely could make the 8, something North Melbourne had the chance to snuff out last week but didn't. Now, after knocking off the Roos, Port Adelaide sit poised to take their place in September action.
Port definitely still have their work cut out for them and, two game behind North, aren't necessarily in complete control of their destiny. What they do have however, is a slightly more favourable draw. With a bit of luck, Ken Hinkley and his men could look to take up to five of their last six games.
Brisbane, Melbourne, and Gold Coast should be wins. I've given Port a small win at home this week against GWS, and a win against Adelaide in the derby would give them thirteen wins, cementing their finals spot. It's certainly possible to be done with as little as eleven, but with some luck they won't need the percentage.
The run home: W,W,L,W,W,W
Season finish: 13 – 0 – 9
All said and done, if the above were to transpire the final ladder would look something like this:
A few final points to note: obviously there are some individual games where a choice has been made that may seem unlikely (e.g. Collingwood > Bulldogs, Port > Adelaide). This reflects a batch of games where the expectation is a loss somewhere and a game has to be chosen. Secondly, percentages haven't been accurately calculated. Outside of the game differences (Hawthorn, West Coast, Port Adelaide), I believe Geelong and Sydney to come down to how dominant they are against weaker opposition. Either of the two should make up the top 2 with Hawthorn. Following on, Adelaide seems the most likely to clinch 4th with either Geelong or Sydney in 3rd. Lastly, GWS and the Bulldogs should secure a home final in the bottom four of the eight.
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