Resource The Punters Thread

[GreyCrow]

Showdown margins by 10s

1-10 xxxxxxxxxxxx
11-20 xxxxxxxx
21-30 xxxxxxxx
31-40 xxx
41-50 xx
51-60 xxx
61-70 xxx
71-80 x
81-90 x

 

[Roovolution]

I was talking to my mate who is a mad Melbourne supporter and he said when Melbourne beat Geelong last year they didn't have Hogan (or Lewis obviously) and one other key player. I remember that game as I was in Geelong but Melbourne had them beat all day so the +17.5 on offer now is intriguing.

 

[Roovolution]

Showdown margins by 10s

1-10 xxxxxxxxxxxx
11-20 xxxxxxxx
21-30 xxxxxxxx
31-40 xxx
41-50 xx
51-60 xxx
61-70 xxx
71-80 x
81-90 x

Port +14.5 or either team under 15.5 points might be a good bet.

 

[potatoe]

Can anyone explain to a noob why there are two categories for most goals on SB (gr1, gr2)?

 

[GROTTO]

Can anyone explain to a noob why there are two categories for most goals on SB (gr1, gr2)?

Off the top of my head, probably likely how they work out the probabilities of each player and what works best for them.

What they ideally want is an ideal spread of money across all bets in each group. Much easier to do when you seperate the players up.

 

[potatoe]

Off the top of my head, probably likely how they work out the probabilities of each player and what works best for them.

What they ideally want is an ideal spread of money across all bets in each group. Much easier to do when you seperate the players up.

I am jumping on Tex now that Hombsch is out and he's in both categories at different odds.

I'm just curious as to why and if there's any difference in the categories and how they will pay out? I thought it might have been most goals for the half or something?



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[GROTTO]

I am jumping on Tex now that Hombsch is out and he's in both categories at different odds.

I'm just curious as to why and if there's any difference in the categories and how they will pay out? I thought it might have been most goals for the half or something?



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I haven't seen the market but I will look at it later and get back yo you.

 

[potatoe]

I haven't seen the market but I will look at it later and get back yo you.

That would be much appreciated. Thanks


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Pdub]

5x more money has been placed on Port than Crows.

 

[Roovolution]

5x more money has been placed on Port than Crows.

The line keeps dropping. Reckon it'll get down to below 10 points before game time.

 

[benno_]

I managed to snag Laird at $23 for the Showdown medal winner the other day, I liked the value at the time and he's into about $9-12 at most places now. What role do you guys think he'll play this weekend? A potentially BOG friendly one?

 

[Scorpus]

I managed to snag Laird at $23 for the Showdown medal winner the other day, I liked the value at the time and he's into about $9-12 at most places now. What role do you guys think he'll play this weekend? A potentially BOG friendly one?

He'll play his usual role racking up tons of possessions in the defensive half and helping us rebound and set up play. Could well be BOG

 

[Elite Crow]

I managed to snag Laird at $23 for the Showdown medal winner the other day, I liked the value at the time and he's into about $9-12 at most places now. What role do you guys think he'll play this weekend? A potentially BOG friendly one?

I think Port will put a fair bit of time into him

 

[Elite Crow]

Crows paying $2.37 for 1-39, that's pretty good value compared to the win odds. If we win it's not going to be a flogging.

 

[Infra Ted]

I am jumping on Tex now that Hombsch is out and he's in both categories at different odds.

I'm just curious as to why and if there's any difference in the categories and how they will pay out? I thought it might have been most goals for the half or something?



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I would assume it is for Tex to kick more goals than the others in the group. Group 1 generally has a higher quality collection of players than group 2. Hence the disparity of odds for Tex between the 2 groups.

 

[DD#23]

I managed to snag Laird at $23 for the Showdown medal winner the other day, I liked the value at the time and he's into about $9-12 at most places now. What role do you guys think he'll play this weekend? A potentially BOG friendly one?

he's a chance if he really racks them up, but he doesn't really fit the profile of previous winners IMO.

 

[GROTTO]

Can anyone explain to a noob why there are two categories for most goals on SB (gr1, gr2)?

OK just saw this now.

The number of players and which players in the group represent the likely probability and sample size.

Hence you mentioned Tex is in both groups. Yes he is. In one group there is more players that can beat him hence better odds for him to win that group, in the second group there is less players to beat him hence lesser odds for him to win it.

 

[1970crow]

Opening day of the Alice Springs carnival and it's always tough as there's horses coming in from inter/intrastate. After carnival it's much easier as the gooduns head up to Darwin and it becomes a bit of a closed shop. Anyway, I've got some inside word from a couple of people, so if you're so inclined;

Race 3 - Captain Punch is going awesome and will probably lead and likely pinch the race, currently $1.90. However, Super Bryan at $10 is the knockout horse I'd be going with. I'd be taking the quinella or trifecta, boxing the first 2 with Ticket To Toorak for 3rd. The owner reckons T2T is the best of his lot for the feature sprint in 4 weeks and he'd presently be sitting on the 3 favourites. But that may change today as I wouldn't be surprised to see Super Bryan (not his) pick up his favourite late.

Race 4 - Big Man is apparently tearing up the track, but this race has a few of the cup aspirants going around so it's a bit risky at the $2.65 price, but the lead is very, very positive.

Race 6 - Odds on horse Delta D'or deserves favouritism, but Alpha Son's last run needs to be forgiven as he was backing up the second week in a row because he needed the 1400m hitout when he was embarrassed by the favourite last start. His stablemate got within 3L of that winner and he's a much better horse than her at these set weights, so I don't think he's going to be far from the favourite come the line. My bet is a trifecta, boxing Delta D'or and Alpha Son with Let's Dream Big for 3rd.

All care, no responsibility.

 

[rocket18]

Thx for the tips Crowy

 

[GROTTO]

Just curious how did the Horse tips go?

 

[DD#23]

Just curious how did the Horse tips go?

I checked, race 3 trifecta got up, race 4 winner got up, race 6 tip was a bust

 

[MRB37]

Can get Charlie Cameron for the Showdown medal @ $31. Seems worth a punt.

 

[GROTTO]

Can get Charlie Cameron for the Showdown medal @ $31. Seems worth a punt.

I have covered a few tonight to break even at worst hopefully lol.

Have Gov at $41 and Talia at $101 in the mix.

 

[1970crow]

I checked, race 3 trifecta got up, race 4 winner got up, race 6 tip was a bust

Late scratching at the barrier was Alpha Son in that race. Money back, which was better than my day as a whole.

 

[Roovolution]

Can get Charlie Cameron for the Showdown medal @ $31. Seems worth a punt.

Where'd you get him for $31?