The Otherworldly Circus - The America Thread

[BrisDog]

Just as an aside, I did find this interesting. No way do I think Trump will come close to winning the popular vote, but a CNN analyst things it is a chance.

Donald Trump "could make history" and break 20-year record—Election analyst

The former president "could make history" by winning the popular vote in this year's election, CNN's Harry Enten said Friday.

www.newsweek.com

Harris by 2-3 million going from the experts, possibly not by enough. Don’t forget women are 51% of the population:

 

[geoffjennings79]

Sadly people believing (any/either) candidate spouting one-liners at a rally (or any public utterance - in the US or also increasingly more here) qualifies as a "policy" is why politics in both countries are going down the gurgler and people are largely disengaged.

Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke, even Hewson's 650-page (slightly excessive!) "Fightback" spelled out their policies in great detail, and usually over months or even years BEFORE the next election.

Electorate knew where they stood on most big ticket issues.

Today it's thought bubbles and slogans, trying to grab elector's attention long enough to hopefully garner a vote. There is no long-term thought, just "how do we get back into govt"/"how do we stay in govt". When push comes to shove and any of their perks are under threat, the two majors are happy to vote in lock-step.

Politics is a rort in both countries. The Whitlams, Killens, Macphees, Murphys, etc who had vision, commitment to their own agenda, but largely debated on merit, are long gone. (Yes, they had perks too, but they also had more principle than the vast majority of today's snouts in the trough.

Anyhoo, sorry for the rant.

 

[Pugz89]

I would vote for Harris over trump for the following reasons and anyone not far right would vote for any person over Trump:

1. US would maintain continued support of Ukraine, an issue I am passionate about.
2. The Supreme Court need to remain balanced. Trump would get 2 more nut cases on.
3. I like women. I believe they should decide if they wish to carry a pregnancy or not.
4. 20% tariffs equal extreme inflation and recession for the US and the rest of us.

Note I haven’t mentioned I don’t like his criminal or moral past.

And a GOP member would respond with -
1. Russia didn't even invade Ukraine under Trump, so there is no hard evidence Ukraine would just be thrown by the wayside.
2. Fair enough, but each president does have the right to choose, Dems would stay it with progressives if they had the chance, so both parties as bad as each other.
3. Trump didn't ban abortions, he simply put it back on the states to handle it individually, as they say fit. Literally the same system we have here.
4. 20% tariffs are designed to strengthen US manufacturing. If I was American, I'd think that was a good thing. Much like I'd think it'd be a good thing if manufacturing got a boost here in Aus.

 

[geoffjennings79]

1. Russia didn't even invade Ukraine under Trump, so there is no hard evidence Ukraine would just be thrown by the wayside.

Trump was keen to exit NATO. His "everyone has to pay their share" last time was a trigger/justification to go down that path. Can't remember which of his former appointees stated it was part of a broader isolationist agenda.
There's also the Putin relationship Trump himself reminds everyone of, particularly his admiration of Putin.
I'd like to see someone prove Putin didn't invade Ukraine earlier because of any deterence by Trump or his administration. There is no evidence of that either.

 

[Thedogdays_r_over]

Trump was keen to exit NATO. His "everyone has to pay their share" last time was a trigger/justification to go down that path. Can't remember which of his former appointees stated it was part of a broader isolationist agenda.
There's also the Putin relationship Trump himself reminds everyone of, particularly his admiration of Putin.
I'd like to see someone prove Putin didn't invade Ukraine earlier because of any deterence by Trump or his administration. There is no evidence of that either.

Trump had nothing to do with Putin delaying invading the Ukraine. He waited for 1. Warmer weather 2. China to turn its back. 3. Ensuring the Iranian pipeline for weaponry and logistical support was established and in place.

 

[BrisDog]

And a GOP member would respond with -
1. Russia didn't even invade Ukraine under Trump, so there is no hard evidence Ukraine would just be thrown by the wayside.
2. Fair enough, but each president does have the right to choose, Dems would stay it with progressives if they had the chance, so both parties as bad as each other.
3. Trump didn't ban abortions, he simply put it back on the states to handle it individually, as they say fit. Literally the same system we have here.
4. 20% tariffs are designed to strengthen US manufacturing. If I was American, I'd think that was a good thing. Much like I'd think it'd be a good thing if manufacturing got a boost here in Aus.

We disagree and we both come from different backgrounds so no worries.

I will give you an example. Tariffs are paid for by the consumer. For example, A Harley Davidson goes from 30k to 36k - Harley Davidson will die as a company as result. Nah, I’m good, I will buy a Triumph or BMW thanks. HD dies, as does Milwaukee.

That is not good for Wisconsin or the US economy as a whole.

Red states will ban abortion to various extents. Red state Governor’s are Trump sycophants and have really not independent (De Santis and Abbott - watch the vote in Florida and Texas). Women end up resenting, GOO and the SP and the Republican base declines even further.

It’s just terrible politics.

 

[BrisDog]

Oh yeah - I suspect AUKU’s is finished under Trump. So we need to find an ally for the next four years which is believe is underway and involves a coalition of SE Asia Nations.

SA and WA lose tens of thousands of jobs and we are now a weaker country defensively under Trump.

 

[glenashley]

Looks like another babysitter shagger has endorsed Kamala....

On a serious note, Anna Kaparian has endorsed Trump the same day Arnie endorsed Kamala.

Topsy turvy world where lefties lining up behind Trump and Reps lining up behind Kamala.

 

[Arkangel]

I was reading today that 9 of the top 10 individual donors in the campaign have given money exclusively to the Republicans; the only exception in that top 10 is Michael Bloomberg (see here). By contrast, the Harris campaign has received about 4 times as much from small donors (see here), which accounts for a large share of the campaign's overall fundraising advantage.

I was also reading the other day that a number of polling companies this year have been using recalled past vote to adjust their sample weighting, which apparently isn't something that is typically done (Nate Cohn, who reports on polling for the NYT, had an analysis showing that such an adjustment would've led to greater polling errors in all presidential elections over the past few decades). Basically, when polling they ask respondents who they voted for at the previous election, and then try and make sure the numbers match up with actual vote proportions from that election (so, e.g., they try to get a sample containing 52% of people who said they voted for Biden in 2020 and 48% of people who said they voted for Trump). Apparently the issue with this is that people tend to recall voting for the winning candidate at a higher rate than actually occurred in the election, which leads to oversampling of those who voted for the loser (in this case, Trump). Anyway, there are systematic differences between the results reported by companies using this adjustment and companies that don't, which lead to different pictures of the election. Could make for some surprises on election night (and the days that follow…).

 

[Pugz89]

Trump was keen to exit NATO. His "everyone has to pay their share" last time was a trigger/justification to go down that path. Can't remember which of his former appointees stated it was part of a broader isolationist agenda.
There's also the Putin relationship Trump himself reminds everyone of, particularly his admiration of Putin.
I'd like to see someone prove Putin didn't invade Ukraine earlier because of any deterence by Trump or his administration. There is no evidence of that either.

He had the chance and he didn't. Nor did the Gaza stuff escalate under his watch. I'd say that's proof enough imo.

 

[Werewolf]

He had the chance and he didn't. Nor did the Gaza stuff escalate under his watch. I'd say that's proof enough imo.

I think Gaza was going to be screwed no matter what. Trump & Biden have put Israel first, and indications are that Harris will continue to do so (off-topic I seriously doubt that Israel tried their best to prevent the Oct 7th attacks).