Sydney's record in grand finals needs scrutinising

[Drunkcat]

When i watched the swans come up the tunnel laughing and hugging each other, i thought they are cocky.

 

[Gavin Excell]

When i watched the swans come up the tunnel laughing and hugging each other, i thought they are cocky.

Or false bravado?
Perhaps deep down , they were sitting themselves

 

[Cuzz09]

When i watched the swans come up the tunnel laughing and hugging each other, i thought they are cocky.

This is what Geelong came out like last week.

In the national anthem they were all smirking

Sent from my SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Seedsfan]

10 times minor premiers to only win the flag twice in those years

8 grand finals in the AFL era second to Geelong’s 9. Yet have gone 2 and 6.

Won 5 flags from 19 Grand Finals at a strike rate of 26%. 11% worse than the pies and only better than the Saints at 14%

 

[PhatBoy]

Sydney is a lot like Geelong in some ways

Over perform every year to a huge home ground advantage which puts them higher on the ladder than they deserve

Have poor final records as a result

Btw I’m just curious.

From 2017-2019, before the competition went largely to neutral venues, was Richmond’s ladder position inflated by its MCG record?

I mean you went 8-8 interstate, and two of those were against the Suns and Brisbane who finished last, second last, and second last the three times you played them.

And let’s not forget your great records at the other Victorian grounds in that period.

7-5.

So you went 15-13 over 3 top four seasons playing away from your home ground and you want to say that OTHER teams get an inflated ladder position?

Putting my long held belief that you’re about 400000 kegs short of a boutique drinking establishment aside for a moment - Richmond proved themselves far and away the best team across those years, and the neutral venue season that followed .

But literally mate, YOUR TEAM went through its greatest era in modern times on the back of its incredible home record continually helping them into the top four as well.

Sydney’s record away from the SCG is outstanding for an interstate side. They don’t continually fluke their way into the top four or something

The internet is your friend. Use it.

 

[PhatBoy]

This is what Geelong came out like last week.

In the national anthem they were all smirking

Sent from my SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Except we proceed to play until the final bell. Really don’t think it makes any difference. If anything I thought Sydney’s reaction after the siren went against Port was more indicative

 

[PhatBoy]

Yes its nothing compared to what the Storm face in the NRL as the only non NSW/Queensland team in the league

lol. No they don’t.

 

[Cursed Cat]

It seemed that first 10 mins of the second qtr broke them.
It would have been painful viewing for fans just watching Lions stream time and time again from the middle.

Absolutely; it was very noticeable - as soon as the Lions worked their way on top all of the fight seemed to go out of Sydney; heads dropped really quickly.

Contrast that with the 2018 Grand Final - Collingwood were all over the Eagles and looked like they could put the foot down at any moment. But Shannon Hurn and the Eagles other leaders really stood tall and demanded composure and a bigger effort from their teammates.

Who were Sydney's leaders yesterday? Rampe is a veteran with a strong record but he doesn't strike me as a forceful personality (nor does Callum Mills for that matter).

Luke Parker, Tom Papley, very good at rubbing it in when the Swans are in ascendancy - not so good when their team is under the pump.

I would have expected the lift to come from Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney and Errol Gulden, but they just didn't have it in them.

 

[Giant YoYo]

What is it with Collingwood fans being dicks today? Had around 3 or 4 Collingwood fans who were trolling on the Swans board during the game.

What is it with fans being awful?

Doesn't anyone remember how it felt when they lost?

One should never revel in anyone elses misfortune. It'll come around sooner than they realise.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

I put the blame on Longmire as ultimately he is the one responsible, especially since he refuses to correct the errors he is making in completely dismissing the need to make us a strong team at the clearances.

Yes Horse has blame because his failure to manage psychology of the team.. But WE must understand the dynamics of what is actually happening. Yes choking....a team proven to be better than all in H &A can't perform to that standard in a GF. Why? It's because they want it too much and impairs their functioning through stress

It's called loss aversion or choking as we all recognise. But what is its origin? Its origin is in an unacceptable build up of stress to the point that when the game starts you can't function normally. Some have better coping mechanisms than others usually the players who also come into the AFL top grade and seamlessly cope with that transition too. Eg Matt Roberts. Others who come in but go out oscillating before finding their place don't eg Nick Blakey early career. To some they shrink away seeking to be inconspicuous in the game and if enough are rabbits in a headlights the team starts to suffer badly. There are some preparatory choices to make self hypnosis to talk down the stress load. Mindfulness techniques..Ultimately it's about forcibly engaging the game to release the stress load and in its place adrenaline which eradicates the stress load. Tackle ferociously from the start.. Chase ferociously from the start. Get a disposal early. Encourage. Motivate..Anything which pushes you past hiding in the game itself..In short force yourself to do the things that got you there rather than hide in plain sight. if you don't the fact your aren't getting the disposals simply adds to the stress load because you are aware it's unraveling and urgently need to react.

Horse is a good man manager but hopelessly incompetent and unfamiliar with high level fatigue management AND in this case the psychology of loss aversion and its remedies.

I feel for the team..I'm a little less sympathetic with the supporters who currently want to torch them as they opine they chose to underperform. They didn't make this choice. They are a victim of loss aversion.. They aren't useless either because they failed to cope. Better psychology plans and active steps to counter loss aversion will yield better outcomes. There are about 7-8 steps you can take. Wont bore people but is manageable

 

[kickazz]

Fate can conspire, in any league, in any sport, to have a particular team make several grand finals and lose them.

What is worrying is the belting they have got and the sheer non-competitive displays.

 

[adammania9]

The last 13 teams to lose grand finals by 40+ were not able to win a final the next year. The last was Geelong in 95 after losing 94 by heaps.

The only side to make top four the next year was Sydney 2015 but they went out in straight sets.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Is it just me, or does Bloods culture seem a little overrated after another smashing on GF day from the Lions yesterday?

That’s now 19 Grand Finals in their history, for only 5 wins, including losing their last 4, and losing 6 out of their last 8 since 1996.

I think they need to stop talking so much about Bloods culture and start to toughen up a bit.

View attachment 2125418

Well clearly it means a lot to you if you've gone to so much effort to work up that gif.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Yes Horse has blame because his failure to manage psychology of the team.. But WE must understand the dynamics of what is actually happening. Yes choking....a team proven to be better than all in H &A can't perform to that standard in a GF. Why? It's because they want it too much and impairs their functioning through stress

It's called loss aversion or choking as we all recognise. But what is its origin? Its origin is in an unacceptable build up of stress to the point that when the game starts you can't function normally. Some have better coping mechanisms than others usually the players who also come into the AFL top grade and seamlessly cope with that transition too. Eg Matt Roberts. Others who come in but go out oscillating before finding their place don't eg Nick Blakey early career. To some they shrink away seeking to be inconspicuous in the game and if enough are rabbits in a headlights the team starts to suffer badly. There are some preparatory choices to make self hypnosis to talk down the stress load. Mindfulness techniques..Ultimately it's about forcibly engaging the game to release the stress load and in its place adrenaline which eradicates the stress load. Tackle ferociously from the start.. Chase ferociously from the start. Get a disposal early. Encourage. Motivate..Anything which pushes you past hiding in the game itself..In short force yourself to do the things that got you there rather than hide in plain sight. if you don't the fact your aren't getting the disposals simply adds to the stress load because you are aware it's unraveling and urgently need to react.

Horse is a good man manager but hopelessly incompetent and unfamiliar with high level fatigue management AND in this case the psychology of loss aversion and its remedies.

I feel for the team..I'm a little less sympathetic with the supporters who currently want to torch them as they opine they chose to underperform. They didn't make this choice. They are a victim of loss aversion.. They aren't useless either because they failed to cope. Better psychology plans and active steps to counter loss aversion will yield better outcomes. There are about 7-8 steps you can take. Wont bore people but is manageable

Great perceptions mate.

 

[Xtreme]

Sounds like they need an SAS boot camp.

Or a leading teams seminar

Or try the Adelaide power stance approach.

 

[PhatBoy]

Must say I felt for every player in red or white yesterday bar Tom Papley

11

Tom Papley

Age

28

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

9.1

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

3.7

4star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.5

5star

D

12.3

3star

K

8.9

4star

HB

3.4

2star

M

4.5

4star

T

1.5

2star

G

2.4

5star

D

13.4

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.6

5star

and I understand his own players and fans love him and every team has a player or players that opposition fans dislike but when you seem to spend half the game looking for someone to give it to from the opposition whenever you kick a goal or give one off, and then produce such a limp display, you look like a wannabe hard man not a legitimate one.

 

[adammania9]

Must say I felt for every player in red or white yesterday bar Tom Papley and I understand his own players and fans love him and every team has a player or players that opposition fans dislike but when you seem to spend half the game looking for someone to give it to from the opposition whenever you kick a goal or give one off, and then produce such a limp display, you look like a wannabe hard man not a legitimate one.

Another reason a lot of Pies fans took pleasure in yesterday. Papley rubbed it in hard after winning the ‘22 prelim. Would gladly never see him win one.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Great perceptions mate.

Thanks mate.

 

[giggler99]

Longmire should do the right thing recognise his game style and motivational tactics don't stand up when it counts on the big stage and falls on his sword. 55 points average losing margin in Grand Finals is pathetic.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Another reason a lot of Pies fans took pleasure in yesterday. Papley rubbed it in hard after winning the ‘22 prelim. Would gladly never see him win one.

I think nearly every single non-Swans footy fan would have been happy to see Papley on the losing side yesterday - absolutely insufferable, hopefully another GF loss will teach the twat some humility.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

I do wonder if the Swans need a rebuild of sorts. A fresh set of eyes over the club

 

[Cursed Cat]

Must say I felt for every player in red or white yesterday bar Tom Papley and I understand his own players and fans love him and every team has a player or players that opposition fans dislike but when you seem to spend half the game looking for someone to give it to from the opposition whenever you kick a goal or give one off, and then produce such a limp display, you look like a wannabe hard man not a legitimate one.

Poor old McCartin won't ever recover from his couple of GFs.

I thought Blakey had a bit of a dip here and there; very few Swans could say that though unfortunately.

 

[PhatBoy]

Poor old McCartin won't ever recover from his couple of GFs.

I thought Blakey had a bit of a dip here and there; very few Swans could say that though unfortunately.

He was clearly having a go, just didn’t have a ‘good’ day.

Much as he was copping it in the match thread, Grundy tried his arse off as well

 

[Daka]

Poor old McCartin won't ever recover from his couple of GFs.

I thought Blakey had a bit of a dip here and there; very few Swans could say that though unfortunately.

When it goes bad on GF day... it goes bad.
No one played good for the Swans imo.

To me they showed up for 10mins and than didn't keep the intensity up the whole team lacked the play for each other mentallity.
I sometimes wonder whether they play a finals style type of brand. let's be real GWS had them on toast & PA were pretenders imo.

Not sure if that's the coach or players it's hard to manafacture it. it has to be instilled within.

 

[Dan26]

Yes Horse has blame because his failure to manage psychology of the team.. But WE must understand the dynamics of what is actually happening. Yes choking....a team proven to be better than all in H &A can't perform to that standard in a GF. Why? It's because they want it too much and impairs their functioning through stress

It's called loss aversion or choking as we all recognise. But what is its origin? Its origin is in an unacceptable build up of stress to the point that when the game starts you can't function normally. Some have better coping mechanisms than others usually the players who also come into the AFL top grade and seamlessly cope with that transition too. Eg Matt Roberts. Others who come in but go out oscillating before finding their place don't eg Nick Blakey early career. To some they shrink away seeking to be inconspicuous in the game and if enough are rabbits in a headlights the team starts to suffer badly. There are some preparatory choices to make self hypnosis to talk down the stress load. Mindfulness techniques..Ultimately it's about forcibly engaging the game to release the stress load and in its place adrenaline which eradicates the stress load. Tackle ferociously from the start.. Chase ferociously from the start. Get a disposal early. Encourage. Motivate..Anything which pushes you past hiding in the game itself..In short force yourself to do the things that got you there rather than hide in plain sight. if you don't the fact your aren't getting the disposals simply adds to the stress load because you are aware it's unraveling and urgently need to react.

Horse is a good man manager but hopelessly incompetent and unfamiliar with high level fatigue management AND in this case the psychology of loss aversion and its remedies.

I feel for the team..I'm a little less sympathetic with the supporters who currently want to torch them as they opine they chose to underperform. They didn't make this choice. They are a victim of loss aversion.. They aren't useless either because they failed to cope. Better psychology plans and active steps to counter loss aversion will yield better outcomes. There are about 7-8 steps you can take. Wont bore people but is manageable

I think this is over-analyzing it. The simple reality is that Sydney hadn't recaptured their form for the first 13 rounds. They hadn't really played well for 3 months. I posted earlier in this thread that on Grand Final day the winning team is normally the one who is in better form over the last 2 months. Brisbane had been in far better form in the recent 8-10 weeks than Sydney.

Look at Geelong 2022 as an example. They had a reputation over a 10-year period from 2012-2021 as being finals chokers. They had a terrible record in finals, an 0-5 record in Preliminary Finals (including some beltings). In 2022 however none of that mattered because they entered the finals with 15 straight wins. Champion Data indicated that their profile was so strong that it was almost impossible for them to not win the premiership. They of course won easily, as they did the week before versus Brisbane, proving that 2022 wasn't just a "Swans" thing. Brisbane also got belted. Why does no one criticize Brisbane in 2022 who lost just as heavily as Sydney?

Consider that Sydney was 13-1 after round 15 with a percentage of 149% this year.

Sydney's last 11 matches entering the Grand Final yielded only a 6-5 record with a percentage of 99.5%

Brisbane's last 19 matches yielded a 15-3-1 record with a percentage of 134%

So, that's really what the Grand Final was: A team that had a percentage of less than 100% (going by recent form) versus the hottest team in the competition. It's probably not a surprise, in retrospect, that Brisbane won easily. Nor was it a surprise in 2022 if you look at the form of Geelong. With a percentage of 99%, Sydney were essentially playing at "8th-9th-on-the-ladder" level for 3 months.

The reality is that Sydney did not enter the 2024 decider in good form and had not played consistently well for a long, long time. If they enter the Grand Final with the amazing recent form of Brisbane in 2024 or Geelong in 2022, there is every historical precedent to say they would be competitive. They really just need to ensure they are playing the best football of the year at the end rather than the start.