Analysis Sydney and close losses - UPDATE ROUND 21 - Sydney big losses, Freo and close losses...

[samFFC]

Swans clearly the benchmark team all season, and will be minor premiers, deservedly so.

14-4
Several headline and usually comfortable wins, at home and away:
-Demons and Pies at the start of the season at full strength
-rounds 7-15 went undefeated against a murderer's row of potential finalists - Hawks (A), Giants, Dockers (A), Carlton, Dogs (A), Cats, Crows (A), Giants again.

I'm a big believer in % as a crucial marker of a team's strength, sometimes even moreso than the win/loss record (eg. Essendon/Bulldogs/Brisbane a few weeks ago - percentage a much better marker of their respective strengths, now being borne out in results). So by that logic, Sydney don't have much to worry about.

Overall, their credentials to be a top 2 side are unquestioned.

But to win in September you need to win the tense, low-scoring, frenetic matches against good opposition, and at least one match in Melbourne.

Their narrowest wins have been:
-Demons (R1) - 22 points - close at 3QT and kicked away in the final term
-Dogs (R11) - 14 points - had kicked away in the 3rd term, were 5 goals up earlier in the last and held on
-Cats (R13) - 30 points - 11 points ahead at 3QT but kicked away early in the 4th
-Giants (R15) - 27 points - game was over early in the 3rd term, Giants made it a little respectable after that.

But they've now lost 4 close games (Tigers by 5, Freo 1, Saints 2, Lions 2), home and away, against good and poor opposition. In particular, 3 in the past month, has to cause some mind games.

I think this has to be a worry. Today was tough with the conditions and their injuries, but realistically they had the chance to close the door and didn't do it. If they do the same in a final they may / will get eliminated.

Maybe I'm overreacting!

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

concerning at least, possibly damning.

 

[zyzzbruh]

Not much you can take out of today's game in regards to that. Vs Richmond, Freo and stkilda we were genuinely poor - the only reason why the whole close loss thing is being brought up is because we were able to not get belted and just so happened to keep our poor performances close. So it's completely misconstrued. If those were admirable efforts then you'd have a point, but reality is we actually gave ourselves a chance to win games we shouldn't have.

This Brisbane game was the only admirable effort of the lot. Had we stayed fit during the game that would've not just been a win, but an easy one. We ran out of gas, and if anything should've been run over considerably in that last. But again heads held high with the effort and ability to keep it so close.

Basically our close losses haven't been because we've dropped our bundle at the pointy end of the game. It simply is because teams can't find ways to beat us well.

 

[Shane Heard]

Sydney lose a few close ones.

A riveting, thought provoking analysis.

That and more on footy classified tonight.

 

[Atomboy]

Sydney lose a few close ones.

A riveting, thought provoking analysis.

That and more on footy classified tonight.

Would you say it’s time to start panicking Caro ?.

I would Gary, absolutely.

 

[MF]

 

[TW Sherrin]

Yet when a team wins repeatedly by small margins people say its a fluke

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

The reverse of Collingwood basically

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Yet when a team wins repeatedly by small margins people say its a fluke

Its also the variables that can happen is insane

 

[SHOGUN_31A]

If only we had of lost more games by now, or lost the games we have by much more, in the most even season in history....

In all seriousness, the biggest issue we have is our starts, not our ability to close out tight games

 

[Tedeski]

Swans clearly the benchmark team all season, and will be minor premiers, deservedly so.

14-4
Several headline and usually comfortable wins, at home and away:
-Demons and Pies at the start of the season at full strength
-rounds 7-15 went undefeated against a murderer's row of potential finalists - Hawks (A), Giants, Dockers (A), Carlton, Dogs (A), Cats, Crows (A), Giants again.

I'm a big believer in % as a crucial marker of a team's strength, sometimes even moreso than the win/loss record (eg. Essendon/Bulldogs/Brisbane a few weeks ago - percentage a much better marker of their respective strengths, now being borne out in results). So by that logic, Sydney don't have much to worry about.

Overall, their credentials to be a top 2 side are unquestioned.

But to win in September you need to win the tense, low-scoring, frenetic matches against good opposition, and at least one match in Melbourne.

Their narrowest wins have been:
-Demons (R1) - 22 points - close at 3QT and kicked away in the final term
-Dogs (R11) - 14 points - had kicked away in the 3rd term, were 5 goals up earlier in the last and held on
-Cats (R13) - 30 points - 11 points ahead at 3QT but kicked away early in the 4th
-Giants (R15) - 27 points - game was over early in the 3rd term, Giants made it a little respectable after that.

But they've now lost 4 close games (Tigers by 5, Freo 1, Saints 2, Lions 2), home and away, against good and poor opposition. In particular, 3 in the past month, has to cause some mind games.

I think this has to be a worry. Today was tough with the conditions and their injuries, but realistically they had the chance to close the door and didn't do it. If they do the same in a final they may / will get eliminated.

Maybe I'm overreacting!

Yeah.
I’d be more confident of winning the flag if we lost those games by at least 40 points each.

 

[Shane Heard]

Would you say it’s time to start panicking Caro ?.

I would Gary, absolutely.

Yes. Top of ladder. Few games to go before finals.

Miles ahead on points.

Extremely concerning.

 

[TheGhostOfJohnBelushi]

Winning and losing close games often comes down to luck as much as being well drilled for the scenarios. And two of those loses came down to one particular player who shat the bed, so maybe question him rather than the team. But even then, if you've ever been involved in competitive sport, you should know that if you give yourself the opportunity to win then you're on the right path.

FMD it pains me how many moronic people are on this site starting threads like this.

 

[samFFC]

Not much you can take out of today's game in regards to that. Vs Richmond, Freo and stkilda we were genuinely poor - the only reason why the whole close loss thing is being brought up is because we were able to not get belted and just so happened to keep our poor performances close. So it's completely misconstrued. If those were admirable efforts then you'd have a point, but reality is we actually gave ourselves a chance to win games we shouldn't have.

This Brisbane game was the only admirable effort of the lot. Had we stayed fit during the game that would've not just been a win, but an easy one. We ran out of gas, and if anything should've been run over considerably in that last. But again heads held high with the effort and ability to keep it so close.

Basically our close losses haven't been because we've dropped our bundle at the pointy end of the game. It simply is because teams can't find ways to beat us well.

If only we had of lost more games by now, or lost the games we have by much more, in the most even season in history....

In all seriousness, the biggest issue we have is our starts, not our ability to close out tight games

Very fair points !

 

[BallaratBulldog]

I felt like if the Dogs weren’t down to two on the bench they would have beaten the Swans. But you could draw up all sorts of ifs and buts in footy.

 

[samFFC]

Yet when a team wins repeatedly by small margins people say its a fluke

Yep, if they are only narrowly beating poor sides (eg. Essendon earlier this year) then it is a fluke.

On the other hand, if you consistently come from behind, and beat good sides in close games, it can be premiership winning (eg. Collingwood 2024)

Yeah.
I’d be more confident of winning the flag if we lost those games by at least 40 points each.

Not the point.
We are discussing their results in close games, not in blowouts.

Yes. Top of ladder. Few games to go before finals.

Miles ahead on points.

Extremely concerning.

No doubt. And their % is an extra win as well. Definitely a top 2 side, that's not in question. Finishing #1 or 2 doesn't win you the flag.

 

[samFFC]

Winning and losing close games often comes down to luck as much as being well drilled for the scenarios. And two of those loses came down to one particular player who shat the bed, so maybe question him rather than the team. But even then, if you've ever been involved in competitive sport, you should know that if you give yourself the opportunity to win then you're on the right path.

FMD it pains me how many moronic people are on this site starting threads like this.

Huh?
McDonald didn't cost either game.

Swans were 17 up at 3QT against the Saints and as a team they shat the bed.

Freo led all day, McDonald kicked the goal to level the scores up late. And then they gave away the next few minutes to give us a 2 point lead again.

 

[.Shotties.]

If these close losses were mixed in with other, larger losses I'd be concerned. As it is, our only losses have been less than a kick, which says to me even at our worst we're difficult to beat.




I hope.

 

[Dangerousfield]

I didn't see the Longmire presser, but assume he said the sky is falling after failing to beat the hot Lions at the Gabba in warm conditions and with two and a half men down?

I'm sure he'd be shyting himself about all these close losses hurting their final ladder position, they're only two games and big % clear now - aaagh, the sky is falling!

Close losses are nothing, a mounting injury toll to key players is another thing altogether.

If they win those four they'd be 18-0!

 

[samFFC]

I didn't see the Longmire presser, but assume he said the sky is falling after failing to beat the hot Lions at the Gabba in warm conditions and with two and a half men down?

I'm sure he'd be shyting himself about all these close losses hurting their final ladder position, they're only two games and big % clear now - aaagh, the sky is falling!

Close losses are nothing, a mounting injury toll to key players is another thing altogether.

Saints game was under a room and didn't have injury issues.

 

[The King!]

Im more concerned about this starts that lead to the last 3 close losses - chasing our tail and the injury list for a couple of difficult games .


You can make the case we are hard to beat and keep fighting , it is better to lose 4 games by 30? But I guess if they lose a close final the natural conclusion will be it's an issue.


If Mcdonald could kick straight we win 2 of them , but ifs and buts, they need to get better starts and not let it get close.

Even today the first quarter cost them before the injuries hit

 

[Chaisa]

Is your glass half-empty or half-full is kind of where I'm at re: close losses.

On the one hand, yes it wouldn't be better where instead of losing by a goal we lose by six. Yes, being in every game is a pretty great sign going forward.

But after 2023 I don't completely buy that results in close games are just plain luck. I used to, but Collingwood keeping on doing it suggests there's clearly a mental component there too.

That we have blown all the really tight ones does suggest that mentally we might not be quite there. There has to be something as to why we can easily regain composure if the comeback happens in the second or third quarter but it seems that we falter when trying to come back in the fourth.

I think we need a close win to feel confident of not choking in finals. Fortunately there's no genuinely great #2 side this year.

Though today was more of a fluke because of injuries. That it happened against Richmond and St Kilda...more of a concern.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Two of those were all down to one man. Not to kick him while he's down, he's a young player who I think isn't as bad as some think, but the pressure got to him. If he kicks those goals they're 2-2 and this wouldn't be a discussion.

 

[samFFC]

Two of those were all down to one man. Not to kick him while he's down, he's a young player who I think isn't as bad as some think, but the pressure got to him. If he kicks those goals they're 2-2 and this wouldn't be a discussion.

Huh?
McDonald didn't cost either game.

Swans were 17 up at 3QT against the Saints and as a team they shat the bed.

Freo led all day, McDonald kicked the goal to level the scores up late. And then they gave away the next few minutes to give us a 2 point lead again.

As said, he literally tied the game against Freo.

Not scoring from outside 50, after the final siren with heavy legs is 100% not 'all down to one man'.

 

[Billy ray]

My team is half way there. We lose. Just need to lose closer