Analysis Swans General Performance 2024

[Heeney2Franklin]

Tried to find my own post where I predicted we would be at least 7-1 after beating GWS. I felt pretty confident but we have outperformed that to date though I never expected the 1 to be Richmond.
Lots of posters have pointed out many excellent reasons why we're going so well and most of them are right. As long as we don't get ahead of ourselves, get another key injury or cop a bout of stage fright we are a big chance.

It was mostly the unknown that effected my uncertainty heading into 2024 how much impact would our 4 ins make? how long would it take? the brutal start to the fixture and the fact we sneaked into finals in ridiculous circumstances.

Paddy retiring along with Tommy always in a periculous position and Rampe looking close to the end ha not much to be optimistic i thought about 2024

The North/Adelaide wins which under normal circumstances should of been losses would of made us a 10-12th side.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

IMO the genius of our forward line isn't getting enough appreciation, both from the fans and media alike.

Ten weeks in with consistency of personnel has kinda allowed patterns to emerge and I think we have a really clear system in what we want to do in the front half.

Our forward entries are almost a kinda front-half version of slingshot footy. We tend to send the ball deep inside 50 to this pack at the top of the square, it draws opposition defences into pushing up close to goal, then we just send it back out to that 35-50m zone that's left undefended.

I think the talls are key to this because they're almost like decoys. They form this cluster at the top of the square, and on first watch it can seem like they just have terrible leading patterns, communication etc. to keep crowding each other's space. But then you notice the vacuum of space it leaves in that 35-50m zone. The amount of times our players know to look into that space - and the amount of times there's always a free man in that space - makes me think it's all by design. That we want that part of the forward 50 as vacant as possible so that our mids, flankers, wingmen, even the half backs, can push into it unmanned. In short, we're putting our forward "targets" 15-20m out, then putting the ball 35-50m out, catching teams off guard.

It feels particularly bulletproof because it really hamstrings the opposition. Even if the talls aren't starring, opposition defenders can't afford to not be occupied with them (no matter how average the tall may be, you aren't gonna leave someone 190cm+ by himself close to goal.) If teams figure out that we like to use that 35-50m zone they can use extra numbers to push up and close it, but that requires them flooding back to help out their defence. We then keep the spare numbers set up behind the play to cut off any of those long, clearing kicks they might try.

It's a system that demands of opposition teams an almost impossibly-flawless level of execution in exiting defence by hand or short kick, and that almost always offers a high chance of creating those ideal shots at goal for ourselves.

Great pick up caesar88. If that is our tactic. And feels like you might be onto something, it's absolutely brilliant...

Either a mark right in front of goal. Or a spillage right in the kill zone for a mid / hf running onto the ball.

And if teams prepare by running off our talls and try to impact the drop zone, a quick handball over the top and it's a Joe the goose out the back. Which seems to be happening a bit this year.

 

[caesar88]

I've given the midfield plenty of criticism over the journey, it's only fair they get their dues. They were brilliant on Friday night and some of this stuff is just... chef's kiss.



I think it also speaks to Grundy's impact, which I was also dubious of. Even if you remove his knocks forward here, he's unlocked our mids to be more attacking. If that's last year, Rowbottom's playing behind Walsh & Cripps in the two instances here, not in front of them, while Warner probably doesn't even get the chance to run through cleanly like that because most of our clearances go to the defensive side, rather than the front of the pack.

 

[The Gong]

One of the best things about Grundy is that he roves his own taps so he's that extra midfielder at the drop of the ball. We're not trying to always work out the back of the centre clearance. We're pushing forward straight away and, with the good hands and speed around him, we're getting it into the forward 50 very quickly.

 

[Nool Carpenna]

I've given the midfield plenty of criticism over the journey, it's only fair they get their dues. They were brilliant on Friday night and some of this stuff is just... chef's kiss.



I think it also speaks to Grundy's impact, which I was also dubious of. Even if you remove his knocks forward here, he's unlocked our mids to be more attacking. If that's last year, Rowbottom's playing behind Walsh & Cripps in the two instances here, not in front of them, while Warner probably doesn't even get the chance to run through cleanly like that because most of our clearances go to the defensive side, rather than the front of the pack.

No surprises really. We've come to expect Rowy to be beating up on a couple of B-graders like that

 

[caesar88]

I mean, there's value to the idea. When you are this far ahead this early, a lot of teams spend a lot of time looking at you. That said, we generally have responded well to different challenges. And as SM says, have we peaked yet?

Edit: Listening, that seems to be Hoyne's point. A lot of time to pick apart the plan.

I guess the promising aspect for me is that we kind of already have been figured out. There isn't really any secret to what we want to do when we play. Actually executing a way to stop it is proving to be the difficult thing for teams. Most of our opponents are actually managing it, for a quarter or two here and there. But the weight of numbers in options to cover each other, and sheer number of weapons we have in every position, makes doing it for four quarters incredibly difficult. And by the same token, it's allowing us to win in different ways and switch up what we need to do to get around whatever the opposition's throwing at us. Teams are starting off in a pretty fierce and focused mode against us and by the end of the affair looking bamboozled and second-rate.

Still plenty of time for the wheels to fall off, players to lose form, get complacent, get injured etc. But in terms of the actual footy and brand and game plan we are playing, we couldn't have done more to this point IMO and I wouldn't have had the season any other way thus far.

 

[wills2g]

Our mids are pretty close to being 100% but our forward line can definitely improve - mcdonald amartey and mclean are not convincing

We cannot expect our mids to kick 5+ between them every week

Come finals if our mids fall off somewhat then im hoping our fwds are going to be better and impose themselves on the game a bit more, resulting in still a huge gap between the next best team

 

[giantsully]

Our mids are pretty close to being 100% but our forward line can definitely improve - mcdonald amartey and mclean are not convincing

We cannot expect our mids to kick 5+ between them every week

Come finals if our mids fall off somewhat then im hoping our fwds are going to be better and impose themselves on the game a bit more, resulting in still a huge gap between the next best team

McDonald in particular looked a little done last week. A great contested mark, a lovely goal assist but by the last qr a couple of simple marks spilled - he looked cooked, which is understandable for a young forward leading the way for the first time in his career over an extended time.

 

[bedford]

Our mids are pretty close to being 100% but our forward line can definitely improve - mcdonald amartey and mclean are not convincing

We cannot expect our mids to kick 5+ between them every week

Come finals if our mids fall off somewhat then im hoping our fwds are going to be better and impose themselves on the game a bit more, resulting in still a huge gap between the next best team

They have kicked 38 the main 3

 

[wills2g]

They have kicked 38 the main 3

And theres still a long ways to go for them imo which is a scary prospect

 

[liz]

Our mids are pretty close to being 100% but our forward line can definitely improve - mcdonald amartey and mclean are not convincing

We cannot expect our mids to kick 5+ between them every week

Come finals if our mids fall off somewhat then im hoping our fwds are going to be better and impose themselves on the game a bit more, resulting in still a huge gap between the next best team

I suspect that, with the group we have, anticipating five goals a game from them isn’t unreasonable. It’s not just Chad and Isaac. We know that Errol can kick multiple goals (even though he’s been a little lean this year), and we have McInernery, Rowbottom, Jordon, Adams, and Lloyd who will chime in for a goal here and there. Then there’s the contribution from the smaller forwards (Hayward, Papley, Wicks) and the very occasional one from the defensive group. (Blakey, Florent, Cunningham have all scored so far this season.)

I think we have more than enough avenues to goal even if the three talls don’t up their output this season.

 

[the hypnotoad]

Our mids are pretty close to being 100% but our forward line can definitely improve - mcdonald amartey and mclean are not convincing

We cannot expect our mids to kick 5+ between them every week

Come finals if our mids fall off somewhat then im hoping our fwds are going to be better and impose themselves on the game a bit more, resulting in still a huge gap between the next best team

we're in trouble if all of heeney, gulden, warner, rowbottom, mcinerney, jordon, adams et al drop off at the same time ...
but we have seen our forwards kick multiple goals in games this year, and include hayward in that
we seem to be finding plenty of goals, one way or another ...
yes, there's always a concern about sustaining form, but the flip side of that is guys not at their best now have scope to improve

 

[giantsully]

I guess the promising aspect for me is that we kind of already have been figured out. There isn't really any secret to what we want to do when we play. Actually executing a way to stop it is proving to be the difficult thing for teams. Most of our opponents are actually managing it, for a quarter or two here and there. But the weight of numbers in options to cover each other, and sheer number of weapons we have in every position, makes doing it for four quarters incredibly difficult. And by the same token, it's allowing us to win in different ways and switch up what we need to do to get around whatever the opposition's throwing at us. Teams are starting off in a pretty fierce and focused mode against us and by the end of the affair looking bamboozled and second-rate.

Still plenty of time for the wheels to fall off, players to lose form, get complacent, get injured etc. But in terms of the actual footy and brand and game plan we are playing, we couldn't have done more to this point IMO and I wouldn't have had the season any other way thus far.

Same same for the Pies last year - it was very clear how they intended to play and win, and from the outside it looked like it should be relatively simple to respond to. But they kept on winning.

 

[liz]

I guess the promising aspect for me is that we kind of already have been figured out. There isn't really any secret to what we want to do when we play. Actually executing a way to stop it is proving to be the difficult thing for teams. Most of our opponents are actually managing it, for a quarter or two here and there. But the weight of numbers in options to cover each other, and sheer number of weapons we have in every position, makes doing it for four quarters incredibly difficult. And by the same token, it's allowing us to win in different ways and switch up what we need to do to get around whatever the opposition's throwing at us. Teams are starting off in a pretty fierce and focused mode against us and by the end of the affair looking bamboozled and second-rate.

And part of this is because we have two very different sets of weapons. One is our skill in moving the ball. But just as important is our skill in stopping the opposition moving the ball. The first could be countered, in theory. The second is harder to counter.

In the game that shall not be named (OK, I'll name it, we played Richmond) our pressure was well down on where it generally is. In part that might have been because work rate dropped off (for whatever reason one wants to speculate). But in part it was also because Richmond controlled the ball for large periods of the game through short kicks and marks. It's very hard to apply pressure when the opposition is taking a lot of uncontested marks.

So I suspect the blueprint for beating us includes emulating that aspect of Richmond's game against us. Except that it requires a fairly high skill level and/or a lot of gut running to pull off, and if it's not the way a team normally plays it is hard to switch to it for just one game. Furthermore, it's not a foolproof method to beat us because there are ways to make it hard to move the ball even if direct pressure can't be applied. It's sometimes hard to absorb during games (especially those on TV) but I think our defensive shape, and our speed at getting back to create that shape once we've lost possession is as important an element of curtailing the opposition as our direct pressure. A team then has to rely on players, especially key forward, taking contested marks in order to score. Some teams have the players to do this (maybe - see 17 May 2024 vs Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Tom De Koning) but most don't. Fremantle, in particular, spent large periods of our recent game seemingly flummoxed about how to move the ball from their back half.

 

[the hypnotoad]

And part of this is because we have two very different sets of weapons. One is our skill in moving the ball. But just as important is our skill in stopping the opposition moving the ball. The first could be countered, in theory. The second is harder to counter.

In the game that shall not be named (OK, I'll name it, we played Richmond) our pressure was well down on where it generally is. In part that might have been because work rate dropped off (for whatever reason one wants to speculate). But in part it was also because Richmond controlled the ball for large periods of the game through short kicks and marks. It's very hard to apply pressure when the opposition is taking a lot of uncontested marks.

So I suspect the blueprint for beating us includes emulating that aspect of Richmond's game against us. Except that it requires a fairly high skill level and/or a lot of gut running to pull off, and if it's not the way a team normally plays it is hard to switch to it for just one game. Furthermore, it's not a foolproof method to beat us because there are ways to make it hard to move the ball even if direct pressure can't be applied. It's sometimes hard to absorb during games (especially those on TV) but I think our defensive shape, and our speed at getting back to create that shape once we've lost possession is as important an element of curtailing the opposition as our direct pressure. A team then has to rely on players, especially key forward, taking contested marks in order to score. Some teams have the players to do this (maybe - see 17 May 2024 vs Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Tom De Koning) but most don't. Fremantle, in particular, spent large periods of our recent game seemingly flummoxed about how to move the ball from their back half.

in that regard, we played right into richmond's hands constantly going long to vlastuin, i'm not actually sure how often it happened, but it's one of my lingering nightmares from that game ...
not only did that waste our forward opportunities, it gave them back the ball to control again ... there were momentum shifts in that game, and we had established it again at the end but it was too late ... that's what i find so frustrating in reflecting on that being our only loss

 

[Kiama Chris]

in that regard, we played right into richmond's hands constantly going long to vlastuin, i'm not actually sure how often it happened, but it's one of my lingering nightmares from that game ...
not only did that waste our forward opportunities, it gave them back the ball to control again ... there were momentum shifts in that game, and we had established it again at the end but it was too late ... that's what i find so frustrating in reflecting on that being our only loss

For whatever reason our heads were not properly screwed on that day and we were a bit below our best the next two games too. However, we got it back together and are firing on all cylinders. But the best bit is WE CAN IMPROVE FURTHER!

 

[bedford]

Unswanslike performance says hello

 

[The Gong]

in that regard, we played right into richmond's hands constantly going long to vlastuin, i'm not actually sure how often it happened, but it's one of my lingering nightmares from that game ...
not only did that waste our forward opportunities, it gave them back the ball to control again ... there were momentum shifts in that game, and we had established it again at the end but it was too late ... that's what i find so frustrating in reflecting on that being our only loss

You have to give the Tigers some credit. They really did apply a heap of defensive pressure and it broke down our precision kicking and running game. Our mids were under the pump and just bombing it and Vlastuin feasted all match.

There's been matches since where we switched gears when required and ran a kick and mark, high possession tactic when required to but that match we just kept on trying to play on quickly when it was constantly breaking down.

 

[the hypnotoad]

You have to give the Tigers some credit. They really did apply a heap of defensive pressure and it broke down our precision kicking and running game. Our mids were under the pump and just bombing it and Vlastuin feasted all match.

There's been matches since where we switched gears when required and ran a kick and mark, high possession tactic when required to but that match we just kept on trying to play on quickly when it was constantly breaking down.

oh for sure, they did, they played well enough for long enough
but we really didn't do ourselves any favours at all that day, even with whatever else was infecting the club that week

 

[the hypnotoad]

oh for sure, they did, they played well enough for long enough
but we really didn't do ourselves any favours at all that day, even with whatever else was infecting the club that week

what exactly is the thumbs down for, statler/waldorf?

 

[zyzzbruh]

So I suspect the blueprint for beating us includes emulating that aspect of Richmond's game against us. Except that it requires a fairly high skill level and/or a lot of gut running to pull off, and if it's not the way a team normally plays it is hard to switch to it for just one game. Furthermore, it's not a foolproof method to beat us because there are ways to make it hard to move the ball even if direct pressure can't be applied. It's sometimes hard to absorb during games (especially those on TV) but I think our defensive shape, and our speed at getting back to create that shape once we've lost possession is as important an element of curtailing the opposition as our direct pressure. A team then has to rely on players, especially key forward, taking contested marks in order to score. Some teams have the players to do this (maybe - see 17 May 2024 vs Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Tom De Koning) but most don't. Fremantle, in particular, spent large periods of our recent game seemingly flummoxed about how to move the ball from their back half.

This. Especially when come finals the better teams are going to feel too much pride and confidence in trusting their own game rather than a complete focus on the opposition.

There's no doubt we will get picked off by a couple of teams between now and the end of the H&A. But come finals the cream usually rises to the top and if we are truly as good as it seems then 2 chances should see us into a GF. And in the GF whomever it is, i have no doubt it will be our game vs theirs.

 

[Callipygian]

I'm thrilled with our performance so far this season. It has fulfilled my most ambitious hopes and exceeded my expectations. But when it gets to finals it all starts again and we have to hope we didn't peak too soon. While it is very enjoyable to be convincingly leading the comp and I'm trying to savour it as much as I can, nobody is going to be satisfied if we don't win the flag.

 

[hairy biker]

Figured more relevant here than media thread;

Target acquired: Who your club aims for inside 50

Sarah Black takes a look at every club's targets inside 50, and how each has changed in recent seasons

www.afl.com.au

The baton has well and truly changed hands at Sydney, Logan McDonald taking the reins from retired champion Lance Franklin. The ladder-leading Swans are building a young, formidable forward line, with Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean

2

Hayden Mclean

Age

25

Ht

197cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.1

2star

K

5.1

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

4.0

5star

G

0.4

3star

D

7.5

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

3.0

2star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.3

4star

G

0.8

4star

D

10.0

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

G

0.2

3star

supporting McDonald this year. Tom Papley

11

Tom Papley

Age

27

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

9.1

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

3.7

4star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.5

5star

D

12.3

3star

K

8.9

4star

HB

3.4

2star

M

4.5

4star

T

1.5

2star

G

2.4

5star

D

13.4

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.6

5star

popped up last year, while the 2022 combination was Franklin, Isaac Heeney

5

Isaac Heeney

Age

28

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

7.7

5star

M

4.9

5star

T

4.1

5star

CL

2.2

4star

D

14.3

3star

K

8.8

4star

HB

5.5

3star

M

4.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

0.8

3star

D

10.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.8

3star

and Sam Reid

20

Sam Reid

Age

32

Ht

196cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.3

3star

K

6.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

4.7

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

0.0

1star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.4

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.4

3star

.

Isn't earth shattering news but an indication of how we have reshaped the team on the run.

 

[liz]

Strange that they’re not targeting Buddy anymore. It’s almost like he’d retired, or something.

 

[caesar88]

Figured more relevant here than media thread;

Target acquired: Who your club aims for inside 50

Sarah Black takes a look at every club's targets inside 50, and how each has changed in recent seasons

www.afl.com.au

The baton has well and truly changed hands at Sydney, Logan McDonald taking the reins from retired champion Lance Franklin. The ladder-leading Swans are building a young, formidable forward line, with Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean supporting McDonald this year. Tom Papley popped up last year, while the 2022 combination was Franklin, Isaac Heeney and Sam Reid.

Isn't earth shattering news but an indication of how we have reshaped the team on the run.

I might be way off here, it's just what it appears to me, but I wonder if the greater spread of forward targets - not to mention just greater share of forward threats, factoring in the mids - has effected Papley more. His best footy from memory seems to come when he can almost play above his height and be a major target inside 50. Now because of all the options we have, he's primarily back to being that traditional crumbing small forward. Maybe it will just take a bit of time for him to work back into that role, like Lloyd on the wing this year.

(Not saying Papley's been bad, just feels like he's below his best.)

Edit: OK so just looked at his numbers and obviously they aren't everything, but he's actually on track to have something resembling his career-best season stats-wise. Averaging the most marks inside 50 that he ever has, only 0.4 less goals a game than his All Australian season of 2021 (with the caveat that he's also averaging 0.4 more behinds, suggesting his finishing is really the only difference.) He's also thereabouts in score involvements, and getting more of the ball than he has in any season since 2017, though he is down a bit in goal assists. So while there is some merit to the idea that he has another level he can go to, it's maybe not as glaring as it seemed to me. Perhaps is season is just flying under the radar because of how many others are having great, career-best seasons.