Preview Round 5 - Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions (Thursday, 11 April 2024 @ 7:30pm)

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Elixuh

Elixuh

See you on the 9th green at 9
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Round 5 starts with a blockbuster at the MCG between Melbourne and Brisbane. Melbourne is one of the form teams of the competition and has had a strong start to the season winning their first four of five games, while Brisbane has had a slow start only managing to win one out of our first four. Despite this disparity, we will hopefully see an entertaining match on Thursday night.

Past results

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What to look out for - Melbourne
There are three key parts of Melbourne's game to watch out for.

LEVER & MAY
Can we limit the effectiveness of Lever and May in the air? Lever and May have routinely dominated the competition for a number of years now and May is in excellent form in 2024. It is a big task for our talls in Joe, Eric and Darcy, but all three need to ensure they compete and at least halve the contest for our smalls.

Equally, will we see some chaos ball entries to combat Lever and May's influence? To do that our smalls will need to go to work and drastically improve our ground ball numbers.

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Dees midfield
The Dees midfield has weakened since the highs of 2021 and 2022 when they were trafficking the ball our of the middle with power and speed. While still formidable, the untimely retirement of Brayshaw and Clayton Oliver suffering 10 month 'calf injuries' has brought them back to the pack.

Even so, the likes of Gawn, Petracca and old man Viney should not be taken lightly. All three are having a stellar season and we will need the likes of big O, Clug, Dunkley, Rayner and Bailey to lift to help Choc.

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Up forward
When the Demons struggle, it's usually because their forward line has difficulty kicking goals. Whether that's ball movement or a lack of cohesion inside 50. The human missile Kozzy Pickett is a handy out for us as he serves his latest suspension, one of the best small forward in the game. As we know from previous games, Bailey Fritsch can also get dangerous but has been more inconsistent over the past 18 months. Ben Brown serves as the Dees big tall forward and has posed problems for us in the past.

But the big question I think every Lions fan is wondering...will the dees inject the deadly Schacheattack into the side to dominate us. We will have to wait and see.

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What to look out for - Brisbane

I think it is pretty simple for us.

For the stats nerds, I've read that our most pressing areas to address are:
  • defensive 50 stoppages - we have conceded far too many scores this season, can we tighten this up? Not having Kozzy playing helps.
  • ground ball in our forward 50 - can our smalls work over the dees defenders and make them pay?
I myself am not a stats man and think with my heart. All I want from the boys on Thursday night is the following:
  • Intensity, pressure and mental focus across four quarters.
  • Energy. Have fun. Celebrate. Get around the boys. Enjoy playing the game.
  • Fagan on the bench.
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Prediction
Lions by 19.

Something nice for dinner while you watch the game
Being a 730pm game, we should all be having something nice and nutritious for dinner while we watch the Lions trounce the Dees. So here is Christian Petracca making Cashew Chicken.



Have fun and enjoy the game. And don't forget to melt in the gameday thread!
 

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HUGE game this, Prime time Thursday night at the MCG, lots of raving going on in the media about how good the Demons have been in 2024, win this one and our lid will begin unscrewing.

Kysaiah Pickett out suspended is handy for us, his blinding pace causes trouble, if he gets off on appeal Answerth to him.

Stop Lever and May from intercepting, don't bomb it long.

If Oliver or Petracca get off the chain send Jarrod Berry to them and not too late please.

Bayley Fritsch is a clever player, get this match up right.... Starcevich?
 
Looking at the Stats it seems they validate the gut feel that when the Dees beat us its based on a standout game from Oliver and Fritsch kicking a bag as a result of their midfield dominance. Surely Berry goes to Oliver from the start and a lock down defender such as Answerth to Fritsch.
With those two ticked off its a case if our forwards separating May and Lever playing high up the ground except for one tall and Charlie.
Easy really

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wantok said:
Looking at the Stats it seems they validate the gut feel that when the Dees beat us its based on a standout game from Oliver and Fritsch kicking a bag as a result of their midfield dominance. Surely Berry goes to Oliver from the start and a lock down defender such as Answerth to Fritsch.
With those two ticked off its a case if our forwards separating May and Lever playing high up the ground except for one tall and Charlie.
Easy really

On SM-A525F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
Apparently Oliver might not play due to a finger injury.
 
Gawn's marking around the game has returned after it became a bit inconsistent. Need to take that away from him.
 
Melbourne will have a close look at us and work out that if they stop Neale they win the game. We need to be ruthless enough to get Cam or somebody to put physical pressure on the tagger should that eventuate.

Fritsch usually kills us and with ball in hand it's often goodnight. Starcevich to him with one job in mind.

Oscar needs a plan to minimise Gawn's output . Plus a bit of form himself would be handy. Big issue for us because if Gawn dominates so too does Petracca.

It's fairly self evident what we need to do against Melbourne's defence.

Melbourne have been riding on the us against the world theme so far this year but they'll loose enthusiasm sooner or later and we just need to build on the return to a bit of form from last week and we can take this out.
 
Would it make sense to bring Fort back in to double team Gawn? Just get both of them to rotate often and just smash into him. I'd even be looking at subbing one of the rucks out late in the game, so you know you could tell Fort to go as hard as you can at him as he wont have to run out the game

I also dont think dropping Gardiner would hurt, he didnt really offer much as a forward anyway
 
KissKiss said:
Would it make sense to bring Fort back in to double team Gawn? Just get both of them to rotate often and just smash into him. I'd even be looking at subbing one of the rucks out late in the game, so you know you could tell Fort to go as hard as you can at him as he wont have to run out the game

I also dont think dropping Gardiner would hurt, he didnt really offer much as a forward anyway
Click to expand...

Nah, I think O just has to run with Gawn. If you play two rucks it is a pretty big concession re how we setup for the game. Melbourne doesn't have a strong relief ruck either.
 

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There is little point hoping Rayner can step up in the midfield this Thursday. The last time we played Melbourne in Rd.18, 2023, Rayner had a paltry 8 disposals, managing only 3 in the first half. That game he attended 4 centre bounces and managed 0 clearances for the game. He also failed to hold a mark.

This sort of clutch, big occasion game in Melbourne is precisely the sort of game that Rayner goes missing in.

After his sub-standard performance against North Melbourne (attended 9 Centre Bounces and had a ZERO clearance game / 4 contested possessions from his game total of 14 disposals / managed a single tackle, which came in the last quarter) he really should be ‘managed’ this week and Lyons should come in. At least we know Lyons will get first hands on the ball and tackle hard. He is a midfielder who CAN support Neale.

We should also drop Gardiner and include Robertson. He should get a tagging role in the middle. Fagan’s Three Tall Forward strategy is a crock. The fact that he stubbornly clings to it simply demonstrates one of his flaws as a coach.
 
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Nathan Barley said:
Last time Gawn and Petracca absolutely smashed us. Oscar needs to go with Gawn and neutralise him. Like most teams we dont have a great matchup for Petracca

We absolutely smashed them in clearances in the blackout game when Gawn got injured early. So that’d indicate the ruck battle is pretty massive
Click to expand...


Elixuh said:
Gawn's marking around the game has returned after it became a bit inconsistent. Need to take that away from him.
Click to expand...
I don’t know if Oscar has it in him to play mean and nasty.
 
KissKiss said:
Would it make sense to bring Fort back in to double team Gawn? Just get both of them to rotate often and just smash into him. I'd even be looking at subbing one of the rucks out late in the game, so you know you could tell Fort to go as hard as you can at him as he wont have to run out the game

I also dont think dropping Gardiner would hurt, he didnt really offer much as a forward anyway
Click to expand...
I think we leave Oscar to go one out against Gawn.
It will be a good test for Oscar to really lift his game and maybe he needs to really challenged to lift to the level he needs to be at for us to be a threat this year.
It will be in the last quarter where Oscar might need a bit more of a hand. So would consider Fort for sub which I know is not a liked plan around here.

As for Gardiner, I think this is the game where he can really show his value as a defensive forward against Lever and just not let him easily intercept mark.
Also next week against Stewart.
 
Its a tough one for Oscar, I think most think he has been in poor form most of the year. But Gawn is possibly the best ruckman of this century (I think I am starting to have him ahead of Cox) and Gawn is in good form again. Oscar is likely to be beaten most of the night, so just really needs to do his best to put pressure on Gawn and not let him dictate the game
 
KissKiss said:
Its a tough one for Oscar, I think most think he has been in poor form most of the year. But Gawn is possibly the best ruckman of this century (I think I am starting to have him ahead of Cox) and Gawn is in good form again. Oscar is likely to be beaten most of the night, so just really needs to do his best to put pressure on Gawn and not let him dictate the game
Click to expand...
Oscar quite often starts really well against Gawn and Gawn has mentioned before that Oscar is one of the hardest Rucks for him to play against but Gawn usually wins the battle because he can lasts a whole game. And always finishes much stronger.
 
Dalions said:
Oscar quite often starts really well against Gawn and Gawn has mentioned before that Oscar is one of the hardest Rucks for him to play against but Gawn usually wins the battle because he can lasts a whole game. And always finishes much stronger.
Click to expand...
Seems late in the game when we resort to kicking long down the line in a close one that Gawn just takes over with those clutch contested marks
 
Nice to see what our coaches come up with in terms of selection and Melbourne specific beating game plan. If they fail badly then the heat should be turned up on a end of season change.
 
My memories of this game last year = being 4 goals down after about 6 minutes, going into the half time break with a 1pt lead, going into the last quarter around 20pts up, Jake Melksham kicking 2 last quarter goals including the one to put them up with seconds remaining. Petracca and Pickett destroyed us. Think Gunston kicked 3. Was shattered after the game went straight home didn’t even stop in at the Royal Richmond.
 
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