- Oct 13, 2015
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- 26,891
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Round 5 Preview – Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions
Saturday 12 April, 4:15pm AEST, Norwood Oval SA
Like last year, I’ve put up my hand to write a preview for the Dogs v Lions game. Last time we were coming off the pre-bye shocker against the Hawks, and I had serious doubts about our future and whether we could string any wins together at all in the back half of the season.
Record since then: Won 18, Lost 2.
I think it is worth stopping and reflecting on this, as we may well never see a better run of results in our lifetime. Its an absolute privilege to watch this team every week and I certainly try my best not to take it for granted.
Last time we met – Round 13 2024 - Bulldogs 10.11 (71) dftd by Lions 17.12 (114).
Highlights:
In one of our best wins of the season, we kick-started our run towards the flag with a smacking of the Bulldogs. Though the Dogs were only on 6 wins at the time, like us they were statistically one of the strongest teams and also had a strong second half of the season to make the top 8. Lachie had 38 and kicked 2 goals, and Hippy had a career game kicking 6 and taking 4 contested marks.
Much like how opening round generates cynicism from the average Collingwood fan who thinks that jumping on the number 11 tram constitutes ‘serious travelling,’ I’ve seen some criticism from Lions fans directed towards Gather Round that I want to call out.
In principle, I agree that there are things wrong about Gather Round – it has artificially propped up Port the last 2 years by giving them and the Crows an extra home game above the rest of the competition.
On the flipside, Port have fallen on their face in finals in amusing fashion AND held on to Ken, so I think it’s a net positive for the competition.
But what I see is a complaint that we’ve been “kept off Adelaide Oval.” Lachie echoed this complaint this week:
All I can say to this is – SHUT UP, DON'T GIVE THE AFL ANY IDEAS!
For commercial reasons the AFL will never have us play the Crows or Port in gather round (they want a big Victorian club to juice ratings). THIS IS A GOOD THING. It means we don’t have an extra true away game.
The only other option is to play a big Victorian club at Adelaide Oval as a neutral venue, which (a) possibly cuts down on our games in Melbourne and particularly at the MCG, and (b) if the big Vic Club isn’t good (Richmond), it takes away from a possible easy true away game.
This is also selfish, as I’ve been to Gather Round the last 2 years and it has been great to get away from Adelaide Oval for the Lions Game. Frankly, I’m more disappointed that we didn’t get sent to the Barossa!
As it is I'll be having a nice lunch at a great restaurant pre-game before wandering over to Norwood. If you are a Gather Round sceptic, take time off and go to it - its a much better attendance event than tv spectacle.
Injury lists – This is preliminary based on last weeks injury list. For us, Kai is a chance to get up with his ankle injury, Doedee got a run in the VFL but probably needs some more footy, Kiddy is 3-5 weeks away and Starce is still a TBC.
For the Dogs, fortunately and unfortunately, Bont is still out. While this sadly means that Kane Cornes isn’t quitting his media career, I’ll take the consolation prize of not having to face Bont. Weightman is out indefinitely, Treloar has another soft tissue and Johannisen is probably doubtful. I don’t think there were any injuries out of yesterdays game against Freo.
Where are the Dogs at?
Frankly the Dogs have performed admirably given their injury list. Being 2-2 with two of their four best midfielders being out is very good, and losses to Collingwood by a kick and Fremantle by less than 3 goals away is totally fine. The wins have almost been less impressive, a narrow victory over norf and then storming home against Carlton.
Ed Richards and Freijah have been superb, and Sam Darcy may be the best player in the competition. Although I think he’s just too tall – I don’t think he’d even fit into a car.
Darcy should be banned from playing, imo.
My final thought watching a bit of last nights Freo-Dogs game was that there were too many players wearing white headbands.
Where are we at? What is our Brand? What do we stand for? Are we suffering a premiership hangover despite being undefeated? Is Llordo still a bitter hack?
Yes.
Where are we at? Hard to say. The advanced ladder modellers have us anywhere from 1st-7th. Our squiggle rating is way down, pretty much because they rate West Coast and Richmond so lowly, and we only had smallish margin of victory against them.
We are second on Wheeloratings defensive rankings, but 8th for Attack – which makes sense to me. We’ve had personnel absences up forward and are still working out our method in the post-Joe era. It is far too early to draw any conclusions from any of this, particularly because I think the models are (naturally at this time of year) weighting last year’s team ratings too much.
I suspect that other teams belting the Dees for example, are being overrated because the Dees are even worse than previously expected. But clearly we are just going, so its great we’ve banked 4 wins.
Selection and Gameplan - I think we go unchanged for this one, assuming Kai is touch and go with the ankle. Given how proppy he looked against Geelong, makes sense to be cautious. I know there is a sizable contingent that wants Day dropped, and while I can see an argument to give Henry Smith a run, I still think Henry could use another VFL game. This means that Day gets 2 more weeks to show value, otherwise its Henry time.
The Dogs have been a hard team to move the ball against (at least prior to yesterday’s game), and I have a slight concern on our uncontested mark game. We’ve only got above 100 total marks once this year (against West Coast), though we were barely short of that against the Tigers and Cats.
For reference, last year we only had sub-100 marks 8 times out of 27 games – and we lost 5 and drew one of those 8 games. We only won 2 games where we took less than 100 marks last year, so we've already beaten that record in four games this year.
Point being, I don’t think we’ve quite been on it so far in our gameplan. I don’t think the conditions have helped (absurd warm temperatures and the rain against the Cats), and I'm sure our opponents have gone to work on us so far, but I’d like to see this tick up quite a bit. Norwood isn't a great ground for us given the narrow boundary, but we can still do better.
Up forward, I’d have Froggy take on Naughton, Payne to Darcy, and Harris to pay O’Donnell no respect at all and live in front of Darcy’s leading lanes. Midfield control and pressure needs to lift several levels from the weekend. I’d put Dunks to Ed Richards as he’s more damaging than Libba.
Tip: I honestly have no idea which way this one goes. I have a few doubts about our performance, but on the flip side we’ve risen to the occasion in the second half against real competition this year and fought out a win. Is it a mature team knowing how to pace themselves, or are we only just going? I’m not sure.
Given the Dogs outs I think we’ll get it done, but I suspect it will be another workmanlike performance rather than an imposing win. If Bont was fit, this one would be a total toss up.
Lions by 2 goals.
Saturday 12 April, 4:15pm AEST, Norwood Oval SA
Like last year, I’ve put up my hand to write a preview for the Dogs v Lions game. Last time we were coming off the pre-bye shocker against the Hawks, and I had serious doubts about our future and whether we could string any wins together at all in the back half of the season.
Record since then: Won 18, Lost 2.
I think it is worth stopping and reflecting on this, as we may well never see a better run of results in our lifetime. Its an absolute privilege to watch this team every week and I certainly try my best not to take it for granted.
Last time we met – Round 13 2024 - Bulldogs 10.11 (71) dftd by Lions 17.12 (114).
Highlights:
In one of our best wins of the season, we kick-started our run towards the flag with a smacking of the Bulldogs. Though the Dogs were only on 6 wins at the time, like us they were statistically one of the strongest teams and also had a strong second half of the season to make the top 8. Lachie had 38 and kicked 2 goals, and Hippy had a career game kicking 6 and taking 4 contested marks.
A note on Gather Round
Much like how opening round generates cynicism from the average Collingwood fan who thinks that jumping on the number 11 tram constitutes ‘serious travelling,’ I’ve seen some criticism from Lions fans directed towards Gather Round that I want to call out.
In principle, I agree that there are things wrong about Gather Round – it has artificially propped up Port the last 2 years by giving them and the Crows an extra home game above the rest of the competition.
On the flipside, Port have fallen on their face in finals in amusing fashion AND held on to Ken, so I think it’s a net positive for the competition.
But what I see is a complaint that we’ve been “kept off Adelaide Oval.” Lachie echoed this complaint this week:
All I can say to this is – SHUT UP, DON'T GIVE THE AFL ANY IDEAS!
For commercial reasons the AFL will never have us play the Crows or Port in gather round (they want a big Victorian club to juice ratings). THIS IS A GOOD THING. It means we don’t have an extra true away game.
The only other option is to play a big Victorian club at Adelaide Oval as a neutral venue, which (a) possibly cuts down on our games in Melbourne and particularly at the MCG, and (b) if the big Vic Club isn’t good (Richmond), it takes away from a possible easy true away game.
This is also selfish, as I’ve been to Gather Round the last 2 years and it has been great to get away from Adelaide Oval for the Lions Game. Frankly, I’m more disappointed that we didn’t get sent to the Barossa!
As it is I'll be having a nice lunch at a great restaurant pre-game before wandering over to Norwood. If you are a Gather Round sceptic, take time off and go to it - its a much better attendance event than tv spectacle.
Game Preview
Injury lists – This is preliminary based on last weeks injury list. For us, Kai is a chance to get up with his ankle injury, Doedee got a run in the VFL but probably needs some more footy, Kiddy is 3-5 weeks away and Starce is still a TBC.
For the Dogs, fortunately and unfortunately, Bont is still out. While this sadly means that Kane Cornes isn’t quitting his media career, I’ll take the consolation prize of not having to face Bont. Weightman is out indefinitely, Treloar has another soft tissue and Johannisen is probably doubtful. I don’t think there were any injuries out of yesterdays game against Freo.
Where are the Dogs at?
Frankly the Dogs have performed admirably given their injury list. Being 2-2 with two of their four best midfielders being out is very good, and losses to Collingwood by a kick and Fremantle by less than 3 goals away is totally fine. The wins have almost been less impressive, a narrow victory over norf and then storming home against Carlton.
Ed Richards and Freijah have been superb, and Sam Darcy may be the best player in the competition. Although I think he’s just too tall – I don’t think he’d even fit into a car.
Darcy should be banned from playing, imo.
My final thought watching a bit of last nights Freo-Dogs game was that there were too many players wearing white headbands.
Where are we at? What is our Brand? What do we stand for? Are we suffering a premiership hangover despite being undefeated? Is Llordo still a bitter hack?
Yes.
Where are we at? Hard to say. The advanced ladder modellers have us anywhere from 1st-7th. Our squiggle rating is way down, pretty much because they rate West Coast and Richmond so lowly, and we only had smallish margin of victory against them.
We are second on Wheeloratings defensive rankings, but 8th for Attack – which makes sense to me. We’ve had personnel absences up forward and are still working out our method in the post-Joe era. It is far too early to draw any conclusions from any of this, particularly because I think the models are (naturally at this time of year) weighting last year’s team ratings too much.
I suspect that other teams belting the Dees for example, are being overrated because the Dees are even worse than previously expected. But clearly we are just going, so its great we’ve banked 4 wins.
Selection and Gameplan - I think we go unchanged for this one, assuming Kai is touch and go with the ankle. Given how proppy he looked against Geelong, makes sense to be cautious. I know there is a sizable contingent that wants Day dropped, and while I can see an argument to give Henry Smith a run, I still think Henry could use another VFL game. This means that Day gets 2 more weeks to show value, otherwise its Henry time.
The Dogs have been a hard team to move the ball against (at least prior to yesterday’s game), and I have a slight concern on our uncontested mark game. We’ve only got above 100 total marks once this year (against West Coast), though we were barely short of that against the Tigers and Cats.
For reference, last year we only had sub-100 marks 8 times out of 27 games – and we lost 5 and drew one of those 8 games. We only won 2 games where we took less than 100 marks last year, so we've already beaten that record in four games this year.
Point being, I don’t think we’ve quite been on it so far in our gameplan. I don’t think the conditions have helped (absurd warm temperatures and the rain against the Cats), and I'm sure our opponents have gone to work on us so far, but I’d like to see this tick up quite a bit. Norwood isn't a great ground for us given the narrow boundary, but we can still do better.
Up forward, I’d have Froggy take on Naughton, Payne to Darcy, and Harris to pay O’Donnell no respect at all and live in front of Darcy’s leading lanes. Midfield control and pressure needs to lift several levels from the weekend. I’d put Dunks to Ed Richards as he’s more damaging than Libba.
Tip: I honestly have no idea which way this one goes. I have a few doubts about our performance, but on the flip side we’ve risen to the occasion in the second half against real competition this year and fought out a win. Is it a mature team knowing how to pace themselves, or are we only just going? I’m not sure.
Given the Dogs outs I think we’ll get it done, but I suspect it will be another workmanlike performance rather than an imposing win. If Bont was fit, this one would be a total toss up.
Lions by 2 goals.
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