Round 3 Trades

[2006_Eagles]

So I've already done Cripps to Rocky, should I double down and do Dunks to Boak now. Not sure if just making a single trade is common in this format, usually makes sense to pair trades up. I think Boak is the real deal and it actually makes me cash amazingly. Seems I'm just going too far with the sideways trades this early but Dunks to Boak doesn't seem too sideways at all at the moment. Kind of want to be aggressive and bold with the my trades, someone convince me if I'm wrong please

If it makes you feel better, I'm 90% sure I'm gonna pull the trigger on Dunks to Boak

 

[Kadog]

Started the year with Zerrett but looked so sluggish in the first two weeks. Traded him out Wednesday night.

Zerrett>Sloane
Hately>Cousins

 

[Wels Eicke]

Is Cousins important to have? Can only go Dunkley to Rozee and Gibbons to Cousins, plus $300,000 left over. Is appealing, but not sure it's worth it. Gibbons should still make plenty of money and still hold out hope for Dunkley. Unsure...…..

 

[Agechamp]

Is Cousins important to have? Can only go Dunkley to Rozee and Gibbons to Cousins, plus $300,000 left over. Is appealing, but not sure it's worth it. Gibbons should still make plenty of money and still hold out hope for Dunkley. Unsure...…..

I did the same thing.
Kept Dunkley and held Gibbons.

Cousins projection is to increase by 200k.
But Gibbons is projected to go 250k+ over a longer period. But I'd it worth a trade. Obviously you'll get 20-30 extra field points.
But cousins will be another upgrade to a premium anyway.

Dunkley can sit at f5 or f6 if need be.

 

[go you pups]

I did the same thing.
Kept Dunkley and held Gibbons.

Cousins projection is to increase by 200k.
But Gibbons is projected to go 250k+ over a longer period. But I'd it worth a trade. Obviously you'll get 20-30 extra field points.
But cousins will be another upgrade to a premium anyway.

Dunkley can sit at f5 or f6 if need be.

Cousins is only being projected scores around 65 though

Similar to say Libba if his projected increases seem low, his projected scores are improving every week, but has gone from something like 10 to 25 to 44

 

[Andrew Birch]

Cousins is only being projected scores around 65 though

Similar to say Libba if his projected increases seem low, his projected scores are improving every week, but has gone from something like 10 to 25 to 44

Poor Libba's being treated literally like he's a 9 points per game player with his projections this year.

 

[Agechamp]

Poor Libba's being treated literally like he's a 9 points per game player with his projections this year.

Just saw, Libba will go up huge if he gets 100.
They project him to lose cash after round 6 or something haha.. back to 292k.

He will end up 500-600k if not 650k

 

[go you pups]

Poor Libba's being treated literally like he's a 9 points per game player with his projections this year.

Yep

Surely assistant coach can remodel it's projections to cover more years of historical scoring data and not just base projections off the last year and current year.

Rockliff wasn't projected much either I think come round 1, like 70s-80s I think

 

[go you pups]

Just saw, Libba will go up huge if he gets 100.
They project him to lose cash after round 6 or something haha.. back to 292k.

He will end up 500-600k if not 650k

Yep, lol, scores of 40s I'd imagine

Players like him are week by week scenarios with the current assistant coach model

 

[Agechamp]

People who started with Libba (if he Carey's on) will have a completed team quicker than pretty much everyone else.

Kicking myself I dumped him just before first bounce round 1

 

[go you pups]

People who started with Libba (if he Carey's on) will have a completed team quicker than pretty much everyone else.

Kicking myself I dumped him just before first bounce round 1

I'm hoping the cash say Libba, Walsh, Cousins, Constable etc make goes a long way to this, but it's not guaranteed either, they could get injured, form drops off etc, other rookies might stink it up too so it might make it hard to upgrade, plenty of factors

As per my post about Smith before saying be patient with him, these 4 value/cash cow midfielders are currently scoring well, their current output is similar to a sub-premium, so I think when it comes down to potentially trading them, you have to work out is the trade worth it at that current time?

I'm a big fan of a traditional 1 down to 1 up upgrade, but it hasn't always transferred to immediate points onfield, once you do 2-3-4 upgrades it eventually starts transferring to points, but yeah, I'm trying to look for a formula to maximise points onfield via both trades straight away as too often you get weeks where if you held the players you traded out they ended up scoring more than the players you traded in, this normally happens when you trade two good rookies for a premium who has a stinker and an average downgrade rookie/rookie from your bench who has to be played onfield now

So at the moment I'm looking at trading primarily from a points per week basis, rather than a moneyball basis and waiting on fallen premiums to fall/cash cows to peak etc, which I have done regularly previously to various degrees of success, but I feel that strategy has a limit as it can limit PPW at times. Also with DT being a rolling lockout now, I won't be trading for solid bench coverage as I have done so in previous years, the rolling lockout is significant in helping avoid donuts as we can trade a late withdrawal type if the trades are there to be used, or we can move leftover bench players onfield if needed. Holding good rookies/midpricers or underperforming premiums will be significant enough for coverage I'd imagine after the byes, so I likely won't need to put an extra 2-4 trades away for coverage, which I normally try to do in the past



For example, just a couple of upgrade strategies here I'm trying to exploit

2 bench rookies to 1 premium and a downgrade rookie: this would be great to do, but is rarely possible early in the season unless you have a decent warchest as bench rookies don't score as well normally, so won't have made as much cash. Around the byes this strategy is possible, but if we can do it early on, it'll push an underwhelming rookie off field before we move them on and I'd hope it sets a constant cycle in motion that constantly sees a bench option moved on. Preferred option here if possible

1 onfield rookie and 1 bench rookie to premium and downgrade rookie: this would be my next preferred option to the double bench move and one that I hope is a consistent trading cycle. Upgrade underwhelming onfield rookie here, if we get lucky on the downgrade then they can potentially be an onfield option too. Should be a good move on the points per week scale

2 onfield rookies for a premium and downgrade rookie: here I'd want to be targeting my weakest two onfield rookies if the ones on the bench still have cash to make. If we trade two strong rookies then we could lose out in the short term on the points per week basis. Least preferred upgrade option here and one I've fallen victim regularly from with the moneyball strategy

Two week 4 trade strategy, double downgrade, to double upgrade: if downgrade rookies are strong, then I'd be comfortable doing this, but I rarely do this type of move as rookies are a lottery and we rarely get 2 available on the bubble at the same time who are averaging 65+



Perhaps we can start a strategy thread on this? I'd like to hear how Andrew Birch and Bandicoot go about it for example

 

[Andrew Birch]

I'm hoping the cash say Libba, Walsh, Cousins, Constable etc make goes a long way to this, but it's not guaranteed either, they could get injured, form drops off etc, other rookies might stink it up too so it might make it hard to upgrade, plenty of factors

As per my post about Smith before saying be patient with him, these 4 value/cash cow midfielders are currently scoring well, their current output is similar to a sub-premium, so I think when it comes down to potentially trading them, you have to work out is the trade worth it at that current time?

I'm a big fan of a traditional 1 down to 1 up upgrade, but it hasn't always transferred to immediate points onfield, once you do 2-3-4 upgrades it eventually starts transferring to points, but yeah, I'm trying to look for a formula to maximise points onfield via both trades straight away as too often you get weeks where if you held the players you traded out they ended up scoring more than the players you traded in, this normally happens when you trade two good rookies for a premium who has a stinker and an average downgrade rookie/rookie from your bench who has to be played onfield now

So at the moment I'm looking at trading primarily from a points per week basis, rather than a moneyball basis and waiting on fallen premiums to fall/cash cows to peak etc, which I have done regularly previously to various degrees of success, but I feel that strategy has a limit as it can limit PPW at times. Also with DT being a rolling lockout now, I won't be trading for solid bench coverage as I have done so in previous years, the rolling lockout is significant in helping avoid donuts as we can trade a late withdrawal type if the trades are there to be used, or we can move leftover bench players onfield if needed. Holding good rookies/midpricers or underperforming premiums will be significant enough for coverage I'd imagine after the byes, so I likely won't need to put an extra 2-4 trades away for coverage, which I normally try to do in the past



For example, just a couple of upgrade strategies here I'm trying to exploit

2 bench rookies to 1 premium and a downgrade rookie: this would be great to do, but is rarely possible early in the season unless you have a decent warchest as bench rookies don't score as well normally, so won't have made as much cash. Around the byes this strategy is possible, but if we can do it early on, it'll push an underwhelming rookie off field before we move them on and I'd hope it sets a constant cycle in motion that constantly sees a bench option moved on. Preferred option here if possible

1 onfield rookie and 1 bench rookie to premium and downgrade rookie: this would be my next preferred option to the double bench move and one that I hope is a consistent trading cycle. Upgrade underwhelming onfield rookie here, if we get lucky on the downgrade then they can potentially be an onfield option too. Should be a good move on the points per week scale

2 onfield rookies for a premium and downgrade rookie: here I'd want to be targeting my weakest two onfield rookies if the ones on the bench still have cash to make. If we trade two strong rookies then we could lose out in the short term on the points per week basis. Least preferred upgrade option here and one I've fallen victim regularly from with the moneyball strategy

Two week 4 trade strategy, double downgrade, to double upgrade: if downgrade rookies are strong, then I'd be comfortable doing this, but I rarely do this type of move as rookies are a lottery and we rarely get 2 available on the bubble at the same time who are averaging 65+



Perhaps we can start a strategy thread on this? I'd like to hear how Andrew Birch and Bandicoot go about it for example

I subscribe to the stock market approach to cash gen. Sell high & buy low. Downgrading rookies is only one money making avenue. I'll sideways and downgrade premo's & mid-pricers to lesser players to generate cash if they're not performing.

For example I started with an under-priced Greene at F5 this year hoping he could shake off the cobwebs early and have an almost complete fwd line from day one. It didn't pan out the way I had hoped with him parked at F8 not scoring points or making $$$ so I cashed him in for a rookie that I missed (Parker) who will make 80-90k this week on my bench.

I'm also going to cash in on Dunkley > Worpel for a 200k cash grab, not because I've completely lost faith in Dunks or because I think Worpel will outscore him over the course of the year, but because one will make 30k and the other will lose 30k this week at a similar output. I'm not opposed to trading Dunkley back in at some point but at a discounted price. Anyway those 2 trades have netted me just under 500k for 2 early upgrades without really effecting my forward line's scoring this week one way or the other but have significantly increased my cash gen. Inb4 Dunks pumps out a 150 and Worps limps off in the 1st 1/4.

As much as we try and follow basic economic principles, we need to take a few calculated risks here and there and make some cash on the side if you want to party on the weekends.

 

[go you pups]

I subscribe to the stock market approach to cash gen. Sell high & buy low. Downgrading rookies is only one money making avenue. I'll sideways and downgrade premo's & mid-pricers to lesser players to generate cash if they're not performing.

For example I started with an under-priced Greene at F5 this year hoping he could shake off the cobwebs early and have an almost complete fwd line from day one. It didn't pan out the way I had hoped with him parked at F8 not scoring points or making $$$ so I cashed him in for a rookie that I missed (Parker) who will make 80-90k this week on my bench.

I'm also going to cash in on Dunkley > Worpel for a 200k cash grab, not because I've completely lost faith in Dunks or because I think Worpel will outscore him over the course of the year, but because one will make 30k and the other will lose 30k this week at a similar output. I'm not opposed to trading Dunkley back in at some point but at a discounted price. Anyway those 2 trades have netted me just under 500k for 2 early upgrades without really effecting my forward line's scoring this week one way or the other. Inb4 Dunks pumps out a 150 and Worps limps off in the 1st 1/4.

As much as we try and follow basic economic principles, we need to take a few calculated risks here and there and make some cash on the side if you want to party on the weekends.

I've generally always subscribed sell high buy low

I guess if I can get best of both worlds with buy low sell high and hit the PPW barriers then it will set me up, but I'm probably banking on my midfield cash cows to be significant in helping getting the best premos in when the time comes

Yeah I have more faith Heeney can turn it around compared to Dunks, feel our deeper midfield spread is hurting getting easy ball for Dunks and a 80-85avg seems on the cards for Dunks which won't cut it for me at the price I started him at, unless injuries strike again and he stays in the middle the whole time. If 1 or both of them look like turning it around I'll look at getting them back in at a hopefully discounted price, your Dunks to Worpel move is similar to my Dunks to Newnes move I guess, though I feel Newnes is somewhat proven in a wing/half back role that he had most years under Richo aside from last year, so happy to bank 210k on that move for an early upgrade too, hopefully round 6 maybe (Setterfield, Gibbons etc early move on candidates)

 

[Andrew Birch]

I've generally always subscribed sell high buy low

I guess if I can get best of both worlds with buy low sell high and hit the PPW barriers then it will set me up, but I'm probably banking on my midfield cash cows to be significant in helping getting the best premos in when the time comes

Yeah I have more faith Heeney can turn it around compared to Dunks, feel our deeper midfield spread is hurting getting easy ball for Dunks and a 80-85avg seems on the cards for Dunks which won't cut it for me at the price I started him at, unless injuries strike again and he stays in the middle the whole time. If 1 or both of them look like turning it around I'll look at getting them back in at a hopefully discounted price, your Dunks to Worpel move is similar to my Dunks to Newnes move I guess, though I feel Newnes is somewhat proven in a wing/half back role that he had most years under Richo aside from last year, so happy to bank 210k on that move for an early upgrade too, hopefully round 6 maybe (Setterfield, Gibbons etc early move on candidates)

I started with Newnes so I agree, he's a good pick at his price.

 

[go you pups]

I started with Newnes so I agree, he's a good pick at his price.

I should play AFL Fantasy again one of these years, I'd only start with 1 maybe 2 ubers on every line, then just look for guaranteed value along with the right rookies. In RDT I just don't have the balls to load up on all the midpricers considering it might not work out/too many blown trades at risk

Quite funny reading the melts and rage trades over on AFLF though, you get two trades every week, problems are easily fixed, player prices move every week too, no 3 game rolling average or anything.

 

[Andrew Birch]

I should play AFL Fantasy again one of these years, I'd only start with 1 maybe 2 ubers on every line, then just look for guaranteed value along with the right rookies. In RDT I just don't have the balls to load up on all the midpricers considering it might not work out/too many blown trades at risk

Quite funny reading the melts and rage trades over on AFLF though, you get two trades every week, problems are easily fixed, player prices move every week too, no 3 game rolling average or anything.

I played AFLF for the first time in 7-8 years last year and finished 134th doing exactly that. Pretty basic game without much skill involved.

 

[TheRednWhite]

Heeney's revival has be thinking I should back in Dunks one last time. Wanted to do Dunks to Boak so badly but think i should settle down. Cripps to Rocky was already getting very greedy and I hope that doesn't backfire too much. It will probably turn out that Dunks to Boak was the right move instead of Cripps to Rocky

 

[Wels Eicke]

Have decided to hold Dunkley too. With Gibbons, Atkins, Hore and Balta all going to need trading before too long, just gonna run out of trades trading premiums. Just got to hope for the best that Dunkley comes good, Oliver finds consistency, Coniglio doesn't get tagged often etc.

 

[Bandicoot]

R

Heeney's revival has be thinking I should back in Dunks one last time. Wanted to do Dunks to Boak so badly but think i should settle down. Cripps to Rocky was already getting very greedy and I hope that doesn't backfire too much. It will probably turn out that Dunks to Boak was the right move instead of Cripps to Rocky

Always felt the Cripps trade was a terrible error. Dunks to Boak would have made so much more sense.

 

[TheRednWhite]

R

Always felt the Cripps trade was a terrible error. Dunks to Boak would have made so much more sense.

It's just what I do
You will smash me in div 1 match up this week well done

 

[Bandicoot]

Go you pups,
I still subcribe to the same principle as outlined by AB. I like to build a warchest in selling my rookies once they have matured and then only making the upgrades after a premium has had a really poor game and drops $150K or so two weeks later. It does call for patience but more times than not it occurs.

 

[Agechamp]

Everyone going to grab stack in 2 weeks.

 

[DaTBird187]

Everyone going to grab stack in 2 weeks.

Stacks on.

 

[Bandicoot]

My round 3 trade of Heeney to Kelly is not looking quite so clever right now although I am still concerned about the lack of time he spent in the midfield.

 

[go you pups]

My round 3 trade of Heeney to Kelly is not looking quite so clever right now although I am still concerned about the lack of time he spent in the midfield.

Plays Thursday night at least, so get a good look at him then