Preview R2: Changes vs. Essendon

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With respect for your posting input, we finished 11th in 2019.
To state the obvious, that means there were 7 teams below us. AFC teams have finished lower than that, previously, so it was hardly "the weakest team in AFC history".
6 times, 11th. 5 times worse than that.

Some history:
"Veteran forward Eddie Betts was the biggest name to move, returning to Carlton after kicking 310 goals in 132 AFL games for Adelaide, while Sam Jacobs (GWS), Josh Jenkins, (Geelong), Alex Keath (Western Bulldogs), Hugh Greenwood (Gold Coast) and Cam Ellis-Yolmen (Brisbane) also switched clubs. Andy Otten and Richard Douglas retired at the end of the 2019 season", but we still had about half a team who had played in a GF.
Under Nicks, we could have stayed around the mark in 2020, say 10th to 14th.
Under Nicks, we wooden spooned in his first year and it's been NO Finals since then.
Under Nicks, 11th ... to 18th. and it's been our losing-est period, ever, since then.

Are you familiar with "The Rime of the Ancient Mariner" (Coleridge)? The ancient Mariner has the corpse of the Albatross he killed hung around his neck, as punishment. One might say Karma.
I'm hoping this week will show us that Nicks is not the Crows' albatross.
What's your point? I'm assuming that you have one?

We could have stayed around 10th-14th - but instead the club made a conscious decision at the end of 2019 to clean out the list and start a complete rebuild - for the first time in the club's entire history. Nicks came in at the start of the rebuild.

2020-24 have been our "losingest" period ever because we were going through a full rebuild, one which started at the end of 2019, with the rebuilt list only starting to reach maturity now. This is what happens when you do a rebuild, something which many supporters completely ignore or deliberately overlook.

2025 is the first time Nicks has had the cattle to be a serious finals contender. He should be judged on the basis of how he performs this year, as distinct from the earlier years when he didn't have the cattle. Clarkson's time at Norf is proof that not even the greatest coach of the last 20 years can achieve results when he doesn't have the cattle to work with.
 

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what on earth

No, no, old literature has lots of relevancy to the Adelaide Crows circa 2025. For example, you may have heard of the myth of Nickseus and Murphydice. Nickseus was charged with rescuing Murphydice's career from the depths of hell, but he was instructed not to look at Murphydice's performances at any stage, or else he would be dropped to the SANFL for the rest of eternity. Quite poignant, actually.
 
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They haven’t had any life in their small forward stocks for a while, he’s a seriously good prospect for them. With Langford, Wright and Guelfi all missing as well (and also traded out Stringer), they’re very thin on goal kicking options, so yes Kako is important for them already.

We should be handling them regardless of whether he plays or not, but it certainly makes our matchups easier if he misses.
Wait - is Kako not playing? Hadnt heard this…
 
I ripped this from the Dons board.

Its a huge positive advantage to the Crows here.

Dons vs Crows

CHANGES SINCE LAST TIME:

ESSENDON OUTS:
Stringer, Cox, Goldstein, Guelfi, Kelly, Langford, Laverde, Ridley
ESSENDON INS: Kako, Tsatas, Hobbs, Prior, Reid, Roberts, Bryan, Edwards

ADELAIDE OUTS: Berry, Dowling, Taylor, Smith, Murphy, Nankervis, Cook, Bond, Himmelberg, Butts
ADELAIDE INS:
Peatling, Walker, Neal-Bullen, Rankine, Cumming, Milera, Worrell, Crouch, Draper, Curtin
 
What's your point? I'm assuming that you have one?

We could have stayed around 10th-14th - but instead the club made a conscious decision at the end of 2019 to clean out the list and start a complete rebuild - for the first time in the club's entire history. Nicks came in at the start of the rebuild.

2020-24 have been our "losingest" period ever because we were going through a full rebuild, one which started at the end of 2019, with the rebuilt list only starting to reach maturity now. This is what happens when you do a rebuild, something which many supporters completely ignore or deliberately overlook.

2025 is the first time Nicks has had the cattle to be a serious finals contender. He should be judged on the basis of how he performs this year, as distinct from the earlier years when he didn't have the cattle. Clarkson's time at Norf is proof that not even the greatest coach of the last 20 years can achieve results when he doesn't have the cattle to work with.
They only ever engaged in the rebuild to buy time from horrendous PR. And were still bungling things (eg. Stengle) regularly, and engaged in bizarre short-term recruiting and stop-gap fixes well into the Nicks era.

Any current form is closer to regression to the mean than the fruits of a "rebuilding" effort.

Particularly knowing what we know now about the "cooked Tex" myth/fabrication, there's zero reason to have been so terrible.
 
We could have stayed around 10th-14th - but instead the club made a conscious decision at the end of 2019 to clean out the list and start a complete rebuild - for the first time in the club's entire history. Nicks came in at the start of the rebuild.
Don't re-write history


"Nicks said he planned to enhance some of the team's work around contested ball and the team would embrace the challenge of competing with those at the top end of the competition."


Their departed list includes stalwarts Eddie Betts, Sam Jacobs, Josh Jenkins, Alex Keath and Hugh Greenwood, but Nicks is adamant he's not taking over with a charter of rebuilding a playing list.

"Not at all," he said.

"Part of the interview process that I went through, which was a lengthy one, was the opportunity for me to see where the club was at.

"My first interview, I knew that (a rebuild) wasn't the case.

"The playing group has a really strong core who have played a lot of football together.


We traded out Jenkins and Betts through the fall out of the camp, paying Betts and Jenkins salary to move them on. We also lost Keith and Greenwood, not because we were clearing out people to bottom out but because we thought we had better in Talia, Hartigan and the Crouchs'. If we were bottoming out, we would have moved on the players with better trade value, like Richmond did this trade period. We also let Jacobs go but only as he was being superseded by ROB.

It was only after our 6th or 7th loss...it was to GC that we finally mentioned the rebuild word, we fully expected to play finals, we brought in Nicks to get us there.
 
Don't re-write history


"Nicks said he planned to enhance some of the team's work around contested ball and the team would embrace the challenge of competing with those at the top end of the competition."


Their departed list includes stalwarts Eddie Betts, Sam Jacobs, Josh Jenkins, Alex Keath and Hugh Greenwood, but Nicks is adamant he's not taking over with a charter of rebuilding a playing list.

"Not at all," he said.

"Part of the interview process that I went through, which was a lengthy one, was the opportunity for me to see where the club was at.

"My first interview, I knew that (a rebuild) wasn't the case.

"The playing group has a really strong core who have played a lot of football together.


We traded out Jenkins and Betts through the fall out of the camp, paying Betts and Jenkins salary to move them on. We also lost Keith and Greenwood, not because we were clearing out people to bottom out but because we thought we had better in Talia, Hartigan and the Crouchs'. If we were bottoming out, we would have moved on the players with better trade value, like Richmond did this trade period. We also let Jacobs go but only as he was being superseded by ROB.

It was only after our 6th or 7th loss...it was to GC that we finally mentioned the rebuild word, we fully expected to play finals, we brought in Nicks to get us there.

I think the club thought it could do a quick refresh and reset to send us back up the ladder. Cut some deadwood, rely a bit more on those existing high-end draftees who had barely played (Fogarty, Jones, Doedee), added one of our highest ever picks (McAsey) and we'd be away.

We still had a lot of players in a prime list profile. Walker, Talia, Smith, Brown, Lynch, Seedsman and Laird between 26 and 29 years old. Crouch brothers in their mid 20s, O'Brien 24 years old and then six first round draft picks under 30 games.

We entered the year with the 13th most experience on the list - not too different to Melbourne, St Kilda and the Bulldogs who hovered around that 6-9 ladder range that year

Couple of cuts, mini-rebuild similar to Melbourne when they got Luke Jackson or Sydney when picking up Logan McDonald, then away. Maybe a few years just outside the eight at worst.

But then it turned out a large number of the senior players we retained were very stinky and we had to make some more serious cuts. That's when we started making the more serious calls - delisting Talia and Lynch, moving on Brad Crouch and Kelly, ditching Gibbs - but by then the window had passed to move on players with currency (eg Smith who was turning 30 on the eve of the 2022 season)
 
Don't re-write history


"Nicks said he planned to enhance some of the team's work around contested ball and the team would embrace the challenge of competing with those at the top end of the competition."


Their departed list includes stalwarts Eddie Betts, Sam Jacobs, Josh Jenkins, Alex Keath and Hugh Greenwood, but Nicks is adamant he's not taking over with a charter of rebuilding a playing list.

"Not at all," he said.

"Part of the interview process that I went through, which was a lengthy one, was the opportunity for me to see where the club was at.

"My first interview, I knew that (a rebuild) wasn't the case.

"The playing group has a really strong core who have played a lot of football together.


We traded out Jenkins and Betts through the fall out of the camp, paying Betts and Jenkins salary to move them on. We also lost Keith and Greenwood, not because we were clearing out people to bottom out but because we thought we had better in Talia, Hartigan and the Crouchs'. If we were bottoming out, we would have moved on the players with better trade value, like Richmond did this trade period. We also let Jacobs go but only as he was being superseded by ROB.

It was only after our 6th or 7th loss...it was to GC that we finally mentioned the rebuild word, we fully expected to play finals, we brought in Nicks to get us there.
Maybe you should look at their actions, rather than their words? AFL clubs are infamous for saying one thing (PR spin) while doing entirely another.

In this case, they did a ground up rebuild, while saying (before they started) that they wouldn't.
 
I think the club thought it could do a quick refresh and reset to send us back up the ladder. Cut some deadwood, rely a bit more on those existing high-end draftees who had barely played (Fogarty, Jones, Doedee), added one of our highest ever picks (McAsey) and we'd be away.

We still had a lot of players in a prime list profile. Walker, Talia, Smith, Brown, Lynch, Seedsman and Laird between 26 and 29 years old. Crouch brothers in their mid 20s, O'Brien 24 years old and then six first round draft picks under 30 games.

We entered the year with the 13th most experience on the list - not too different to Melbourne, St Kilda and the Bulldogs who hovered around that 6-9 ladder range that year

Couple of cuts, mini-rebuild similar to Melbourne when they got Luke Jackson or Sydney when picking up Logan McDonald, then away. Maybe a few years just outside the eight at worst.

But then it turned out a large number of the senior players we retained were very stinky and we had to make some more serious cuts. That's when we started making the more serious calls - delisting Talia and Lynch, moving on Brad Crouch and Kelly, ditching Gibbs - but by then the window had passed to move on players with currency (eg Smith who was turning 30 on the eve of the 2022 season)
The 2019 post-season was the START of the rebuild. It didn't happen overnight, but it did start with a large exodus (many forced) of players who could have been retained if the club had chosen to do so.

This was never intended or expected to be a "mini rebuild". They retained a core of senior players, and binned virtually the entire list over 2-3 year period. That's a full rebuild in anyone's language - except perhaps for the eternally deluded, or those with bizarre agenda-driven blinkers.
 

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We were playing for finals that year until it was very obvious we were miles off the pace
In 2017 we made the GF.

In 2018 we missed the finals, but our real problems were masked by a horrendous injury list. The club blamed injuries, and went into 2019 with the expectation that a better run with injuries would take us back to the finals again.

In 2019 we missed the finals again, and they realised just how bad our list had become. This prompted the start of the rebuild, which began in the 2019 post-season.

In 2025 the rebuild is complete, and we are now in the position to be genuine finals contenders for the first time since the rebuild began.
 
The 2019 post-season was the START of the rebuild. It didn't happen overnight, but it did start with a large exodus (many forced) of players who could have been retained if the club had chosen to do so.

This was never intended or expected to be a "mini rebuild". They retained a core of senior players, and binned virtually the entire list over 2-3 year period. That's a full rebuild in anyone's language - except perhaps for the eternally deluded, or those with bizarre agenda-driven blinkers.

I don't think we'll ever know whether the club intended to do a full or mini rebuild after 2019. Of course after 2020 and 2021 it was clear they were doing a full rebuild and their actions say as much. I'm just giving my opinion of what I think happened.

What we don't know is if we finished say, 10th in 2020, whether we still go ahead with getting rid of guys like Brad Crouch and getting much more aggressive with the cuts.

I find it hard to believe the club genuinely believed a list including Walker, Sloane, Laird, Smith, Matt Crouch, Talia - all All Australian quality players - plus Brad Crouch, Lynch, Seedsman, Milera, Gibbs, O'Brien, Brown and a bunch of promising draftees would finish last, then 15th.

You say look at the actions we took rather than what the club said. Well we got rid of zero best 22 players under the age of 30 at the end of 2019, moved on some fringe players like Keath and Greenwood who were in and out of the side. I think we wanted to swap the 30 year olds that fell out of favour in 2019 for the draftees we largely already had and hope for the best because our core group had half a dozen "stars" and other decent experienced players to keep us going
 
I have used that expression for 30 odd years without knowing it's origin, just thought it was a funny line from DAAS. I have often said working with so and so was like having an albatross around my neck.

Gives it more clarity now and people must have thought I was well read.

Thanks
No worries.
Your co-worker must have been a real so and so ... (but what's DAAS?).
 
No worries.
Your co-worker must have been a real so and so ... (but what's DAAS?).
Doug Anthony All-Stars

It was a comedy group including Paul McDermott (best known from Good News Week), Flacco (Paul Livingston - also known from Good News Week) and Tim Ferguson.
 
Annoyingly nervous about this one. Win this and the season if off and going. Lose and Cripes, feel like we haven’t progressed at all.
Nicks should be looking for a new job if we lose.
 

Preview R2: Changes vs. Essendon


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