Professional Punters

[Oraz]

I'm seriously considering quitting my job and becoming a professional punter.

Depositing 20k across various online betting accounts and using a unit size of 1k a unit.

I usually make 20-40u a season profit from AFL.

It's not much but it beats feeling suicidal and working 9 to 5 in an office job (current situation).


The only problem is that I think if you're in a situation where you're relying on punting to make a living then this may influence/bias your punting too much (e.g. you may become more emotionally involved in punting whic his a bad thing).

Also 1k unit is pretty small so i guess you'd have to use 2k unit sizes and 40k bank roll. Might be better (to make a living off).

Pros:

- potentially make 40-50k a year tax free (potantially higher in future years as bank roll grows)
- get to work when you want
- only have to work during AFL season
- Get to watch AFL .


Cons:

- lot's of pressure
- might not be feasible for the long term.
- need a massive bank roll and savings
- might get banned from betting agencies.
- no gurantee to make money

 

[anabac]

Tax free earnings on the punt + Centrelink (dole) = Good times 4 eva

I can't see any negatives?

 

[Jugada]

Yeah i hear quitting your job and gambling all your money does wonders for those with suicidal thoughts

 

[ash_1050]

Ah yes I see no downsides to having a 20 unit bankroll.

 

[Jugada]

I'm seriously considering quitting my job and becoming a professional punter.

Depositing 20k across various online betting accounts and using a unit size of 1k a unit.

I usually make 20-40u a season profit from AFL.

It's not much but it beats feeling suicidal and working 9 to 5 in an office job (current situation).


The only problem is that I think if you're in a situation where you're relying on punting to make a living then this may influence/bias your punting too much (e.g. you may become more emotionally involved in punting whic his a bad thing).

Also 1k unit is pretty small so i guess you'd have to use 2k unit sizes and 40k bank roll. Might be better (to make a living off).

Pros:

- potentially make 40-50k a year tax free (potantially higher in future years as bank roll grows)
- get to work when you want
- only have to work during AFL season
- Get to watch AFL .


Cons:

- lot's of pressure
- might not be feasible for the long term.
- need a massive bank roll and savings
- might get banned from betting agencies.
- no gurantee to make money

Few things if you are being serious

An average bet size of 1k on a 20k bankroll is far too much. Very good chance variance will kill your bankroll even if you have an edge. Obviously same goes for 2k on a 40k bankroll

1k isn't pretty small for an average bet size. It's more about total turnover than it is staking big on individual bets anyway

How many bets are you planning on making per season?

 

[Oraz]

Few things if you are being serious

An average bet size of 1k on a 20k bankroll is far too much. Very good chance variance will kill your bankroll even if you have an edge. Obviously same goes for 2k on a 40k bankroll

1k isn't pretty small for an average bet size. It's more about total turnover than it is staking big on individual bets anyway

How many bets are you planning on making per season?

But 1k is 5% of your bankroll (20k)? Wouldn't that keep you safe from variances?

If i did do this i wouldn't have a pre determined number of bets i'd have to make per season

 

[Jugada]

But 1k is 5% of your bankroll (20k)? Wouldn't that keep you safe from variances?

If i did do this i wouldn't have a pre determined number of bets i'd have to make per season

Nah 5% is too much. It might be ok to have a few bets around that mark but thats like absolute max bet size imo and if they're all around that size you will get yourself into trouble

I know you wouldn't, but just a rough guide based on previous seasons

 

[benno_]

I definitely don't consider myself a professional, but I quit my shitty part time job about 5 months ago and have been gambling since for my income. I was wanting to quit for a while and find a new job. After some decent wins late last year felt I had enough money to quit, take time off from work and punt on the side for a month or so over summer before finding a new job in January. 4+ months later now and I still don't have a part time job after continuing to make enough on sports.

I'm fortunate enough to still be living at home though while I'm a student so my costs of living are quite low. I'm also not someone who spends a lot of money on unnecessary things, I'm pretty good with saving a lot of what I do win. While I have made quite a bit off betting in the last 12+ months, its definitely not enough to live off if I had the extra expenses of moving out and living alone.

While betting professionally full time would be the dream, unfortunately I don't think it would be possible mainly due to being limited by bookies and the amount you'd need to turn over while still placing high quality bets. You'd also need to do everything almost perfectly, I still slip up quite and make stupid bets (I would have made a lot more profit if I didn't make some stupid ones), but like anything you just learn from the mistakes to improve.

I don't know how long I'll be able to keep up what I'm doing. Right now its still profitable for me and its fun while I'm just a student and I'm making enough money to live off, cover the expenses I do have, save money and treat myself a bit. But eventually when I work full time (or lose it all lol) it will just be something I do on the side for some extra money.

 

[Spads]

I
I don't know how long I'll be able to keep up what I'm doing.

You bet mainly player props, right?

You'll be able to keep that up until you start betting over a $100.

 

[Watts4Dinner]

But 1k is 5% of your bankroll (20k)? Wouldn't that keep you safe from variances?

If i did do this i wouldn't have a pre determined number of bets i'd have to make per season

Don't do it. Drink more, take Valium. You're nowhere near ready to take it on. Especially if your mental state is as you say, even aside from the money management part, which you're clearly a long way from understanding if you think those numbers are a good idea.

 

[Fuzzy Happy Poo]

a 20 unit bankroll is no where near enough to do this full time just after doing some calculations with sample sizes, if you win 55% of bets at odds of $1.9 which on average is profiting 4.5%. over 1000 bets there is about 12% chance that at some point you will be down 20 bets. obviously for recreational betting that is fine but doing it professionally where losing your roll is pretty much the end of it, it's not recommended.

 

[Watts4Dinner]

It's hard to take a guy called Fuzzy Happy Poo seriously.

 

[benno_]

You bet mainly player props, right?

You'll be able to keep that up until you start betting over a $100.

Yeah a fair bit, but other stuff too. Like I said though you wouldn't be able to professionally because it gets hard when places limit you, most have limited me.

The interesting one is Crown. They have limited me (some markets heavily) but allow me to bet a reasonable amount still on things like DT. After they accept my bet they immediately change their lines/odds based on what I did. Almost like they use me to gage where they have everything set at, and allowing me on for a semi-decent amount means I continue to bet with them on the market and its almost like 'payment' lol.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Yeah a fair bit, but other stuff too. Like I said though you wouldn't be able to professionally because it gets hard when places limit you, most have limited me.

The interesting one is Crown. They have limited me (some markets heavily) but allow me to bet a reasonable amount still on things like DT. After they accept my bet they immediately change their lines/odds based on what I did. Almost like they use me to gage where they have everything set at, and allowing me on for a semi-decent amount means I continue to bet with them on the market and its almost like 'payment' lol.

If you don't do big bets they would use you as a price indicator. Basically cross checking their lines for them. Not sure if it happens for DT but would for lines and results. Up your bets and you'll be cut off pretty quick.

 

[benno_]

If you don't do big bets they would use you as a price indicator. Basically cross checking their lines for them. Not sure if it happens for DT but would for lines and results. Up your bets and you'll be cut off pretty quick.

Yeah, I bet reasonably large so they've limited me, but instead of doing it heavily and basically cutting me off like they have for other markets (basketball player ones mainly) they allow me to place exactly enough for a 1U profit on DT, then adjust their DT totals/lines/odds based on my bet. I think they allow me on for the 1U profit so i keep coming back and they can use me as an indicator, if they basically cut me off I wouldn't use them anymore like I did with their basketball markets.

 

[Spads]

Yeah, I bet reasonably large so they've limited me, but instead of doing it heavily and basically cutting me off like they have for other markets (basketball player ones mainly) they allow me to place exactly enough for a 1U profit on DT, then adjust their DT totals/lines/odds based on my bet. I think they allow me on for the 1U profit so i keep coming back and they can use me as an indicator, if they basically cut me off I wouldn't use them anymore like I did with their basketball markets.

Double your bet size and I bet you are limited.

 

[Spads]

Double your bet size and I bet you are limited.

Speaking of bet size, pinnacles totals limits are now $717.98. Why are they so low this year?

 

[Duritz]

But 1k is 5% of your bankroll (20k)? Wouldn't that keep you safe from variances?

If i did do this i wouldn't have a pre determined number of bets i'd have to make per season

a 20 unit bankroll is no where near enough to do this full time just after doing some calculations with sample sizes, if you win 55% of bets at odds of $1.9 which on average is profiting 4.5%. over 1000 bets there is about 12% chance that at some point you will be down 20 bets. obviously for recreational betting that is fine but doing it professionally where losing your roll is pretty much the end of it, it's not recommended.

According to the Kelly criterion the optimal bet size for a 55% s/r with a 1.90 ave odds is 5% of BR.

 

[benno_]

Double your bet size and I bet you are limited.

I have been limited, I bet the max they will take from me for it. I used to be allowed to bet what ever i wanted on anything, but then things like NBA players bets, NBL players, AFL player disposals, DT, SC etc across most bookies got cut down to $15-30.

Crown won't allow me to bet more than $25 on most of those markets. What I'm saying is the weird thing they do with me for DT, is instead of limiting me so much and cutting me down to hardly anything like everything else, even though its one I'm most profitable on, they have limited me to exactly $113.63 @1.88 which is exactly $100 profit if the bet wins (or $142.85 @1.70 for exactly $100 and so on). They then immediately adjust their lines/odds etc based on my bet. They use me as an indicator, but I'm guessing the theory is by still offering me the potential to win a reasonable $100 profit, that ensures I keep coming back and its a win-win so they can use me as an indicator. Instead of limiting me so much that I decide its not worth it and walk away which would mean they'd lose an indicator, which I'm not sure how many they would have for DT.

 

[ricardogp]

But 1k is 5% of your bankroll (20k)? Wouldn't that keep you safe from variances?

If i did do this i wouldn't have a pre determined number of bets i'd have to make per season

Variance will get you at some point. About 3 weeks ago I lost about 10u in about 4 days. I still haven't made it back, Which for me is just a pain in the butt, but if it's your income and you have bills to pay and 10u is actually half your bankroll then I imagine it would seriously dampen your day.

Going pro on a variable income needs some serious thought.

 

[the harry]

I have been limited, I bet the max they will take from me for it. I used to be allowed to bet what ever i wanted on anything, but then things like NBA players bets, NBL players, AFL player disposals, DT, SC etc across most bookies got cut down to $15-30.

Crown won't allow me to bet more than $25 on most of those markets. What I'm saying is the weird thing they do with me for DT, is instead of limiting me so much and cutting me down to hardly anything like everything else, even though its one I'm most profitable on, they have limited me to exactly $113.63 @1.88 which is exactly $100 profit if the bet wins (or $142.85 @1.70 for exactly $100 and so on). They then immediately adjust their lines/odds etc based on my bet. They use me as an indicator, but I'm guessing the theory is by still offering me the potential to win a reasonable $100 profit, that ensures I keep coming back and its a win-win so they can use me as an indicator. Instead of limiting me so much that I decide its not worth it and walk away which would mean they'd lose an indicator, which I'm not sure how many they would have for DT.

Well hypothetically, you're winning at 15%, which is pretty good, so that each bet of the above amount will cost Crown $17.05.

It also means that the average market you bet on is less 106.4% and more like a 86.96% market (if you bet on a $1.88 shot, it should be about $1.72, or the equivalent movement in points).

Obviously they won't abandoned completely their own thoughts, but even if they met you half way, cutting the price to $1.80, or changing the points to the same degree, if they hold an extra $2k on the market, that's $160 saved for the cost of your $17.05.

I'm sure I've probably ****ed the numbers up here, but you get the idea, they're making a 9:1 return on what they are losing to you. That's good business.

 

[mookieb]

Variance will get you at some point. About 3 weeks ago I lost about 10u in about 4 days. I still haven't made it back, Which for me is just a pain in the butt, but if it's your income and you have bills to pay and 10u is actually half your bankroll then I imagine it would seriously dampen your day.

Going pro on a variable income needs some serious thought.

Variance shouldn't matter in the long run it's just a deviation from the norm. Your bankroll needs to be big enough that a period of "run bad" doesn't eat away too much of your capital. For many people it's the fear of going broke which can destroy their emotional control well before they actually go broke so bankroll management and correct staking would obviously be very important.

 

[Watts4Dinner]

According to the Kelly criterion the optimal bet size for a 55% s/r with a 1.90 ave odds is 5% of BR.

 

[FallingLiefs]

View attachment 360168

Pfft that only counts for people who get it wrong.

 

[Spads]

Variance shouldn't matter in the long run it's just a deviation from the norm. Your bankroll needs to be big enough that a period of "run bad" doesn't eat away too much of your capital. For many people it's the fear of going broke which can destroy their emotional control well before they actually go broke so bankroll management and correct staking would obviously be very important.

Ahh, bankroll management is also psychological, of course.