Player X or Player Y (Part 3)

[Butane]

going to down grade Bastinaci to a under 100 k, then next week upgrade one of my rookies to a fallen premium. thoughts

That's great and all but who is under 100K worth getting? And what premium are you going to get? Have they dropped for a reason?

 

[ohh_v]

I had this problem the other night, and was short of dough so I got Gibbs. Pendlebury is another one I wanted, but I was 1K short.

You have Selwood yeh?

Nah mate i don't have him, but for some reason i just don't like the idea of having 3 Geelong players in my midfield (I have GAJ and Bartel already). Sounds pretty stupid haha

Regarding Hayes/Gibbs, would you have gotten Hayes if you had enough cash? It just seems like a riskier option, and he's now risen up in price as well.

 

[skirk34]

Hargrave vs Bower. It seems a lot of people are getting Hargrave so am leaning the way of Bower for uniqueness but am concerned about injury concerns (was that why he didn't play rounds 2-5) and when Waite comes back, will he be playing more shutdown roles?? Or should I go for both possibly finishing off my backs for the year (Leaving Kennely as my 7th Back).

16 trades left
Current Backs: Hodge, Goddard, Enright, Shaw, Kennely, Ladson, Silvagni, Nason, Davis

 

[magpies03]

Hargrave vs Bower. It seems a lot of people are getting Hargrave so am leaning the way of Bower for uniqueness but am concerned about injury concerns (was that why he didn't play rounds 2-5) and when Waite comes back, will he be playing more shutdown roles?? Or should I go for both possibly finishing off my backs for the year (Leaving Kennely as my 7th Back).

16 trades left
Current Backs: Hodge, Goddard, Enright, Shaw, Kennely, Ladson, Silvagni, Nason, Davis

If it was me id probably go hargrave just because he is a proven gun last year. As you said bower is unique but is a bit unknown. The advantage bower has is carlton have a pritty cruisey 5 weeks coming up. They have stkilda this week with they way they play defenders should rack up a fair bit of the ball due to their defensive zoneing. Then they have port at AAMI which carlton generally travel fairly well to followed by hawthorn,north and melbourne(Not sure if its that order but yeh). So if you wanted to take a punt on soemone unique bower probably isnt the worst option.

I probably wouldnt go hargrave this week. Still wanna see him have another good game or 2 before getting on him. If he has another good game or 2 tho he is a steal at that price. Bower could be a great pick or a big flop imo. If you want bower i say get on now, hargrave id still wait another week at least. If it were me id wait for hargrave

 

[WoGiTaLiA]

Thing with Hargrave is he has bottomed out. BE is 40ish, so if you wait from here he is going up pretty much no matter what.

I'm torn on him, last year is his one season as a premium and I feel at least part of his fall this year is based on Harbrow's improvement. It seems to be Gilbee, Harbrow then Hargrave for the clearing options. Lake also likes to have a trot. Leaves basically Morris as the only guy who doesn't sabotage. Still, at his price, Hargrave could fall 20% on last year and still be a pretty solid 6th or 7th back.

Basically Hargrave has lots of upside, little downside and a low cost. I wouldn't sideways from guys like Kennelly but upwards from Ladson, Hunt and others in that group is certainly a worthwhile trade.

If you wait and see he probably goes up 20k on a bad performance and maybe as much as 40k on a good one. Basically if you want to play it safe it will cost you, call it an insurance premium I guess. He looked solid last Friday, was moving well and finding space but so were all their backs.

I'm tossin up my moves this week... I'm leaning Hayes but also considering Gibbs and Selwood in particular or I could go all out for Swan.

Swan is not likely to change upwards, could come down and NM do have a couple of good tagging options. Hayes is certainly going up. Gibbs is almost certainly going up. Selwood is certainly going up...

Here are my thoughts on each for those others considering this move which is probably most people with Bastinac as the first close to maxxed cow...

Lenny Hayes
Pros
- Prolific scorer
- Bottomed out
- Defined role
- Slow start due to interrupted PS, not role change(Biggie).
- Great team
- Consistency.
- 2nd highest average of the 4 LY and historically.

Cons
- Durability.
- Slow start due to interrupted PS(relates to durability).
- Relatively cheap(is cheap for him, but not compared to Gibbs and Selwood).

Dane Swan
Pros
- Absolute Gun with massive score potential
- Great Team
- Durability
- Significant price drop so far
- Price drop due to one bad game.

Cons
- May not have bottomed out yet
- Slight role changes this year
- Price compared to the others.

Bryce Gibbs
Pros
- Bottomed out(or very close)
- Durability
- Proven Gun
- Slow start can be attributed to Judd missing.

Cons
- Simpson seems to have taken over his most lucrative role.
- Relies on teammates to get the ball to him.
- Relatively poor team.
- Judd the only good explanation for slow start.

Joel Selwood
Pros
- Dirt cheap
- Great team
- Proven gun
- Gamestyle generally means high floor.
- Rumours of injury causing slow start
- Turned it on last week.
- Durability

Cons
- First really good game on the w/e... against Richmond.
- Slow start a concern... as no obvious explanation.
- Hasn't got the same top end as the other 3 historically(is close though).
- Are Geelong sliding back a little?
- Too many Cats in your team with Corey to be worth a look in a week or to.


Anyone got any to add or argue on those go for it. I'm currently leaning towards Hayes but that will probably change 5 times during the week...

 

[krankychops]

Just a little concerned as to why you're leaning towards the only one with Durability listed as a CON rather than a PRO. If you're laying down money on a keeper it's a crucial attribute.

 

[WoGiTaLiA]

Just a little concerned as to why you're leaning towards the only one with Durability listed as a CON rather than a PRO. If you're laying down money on a keeper it's a crucial attribute.

It's a fair question actually... Just a feeling I guess... his durability has been much better the last couple of years and he seems to be playing into a good bit of form and finding shape but it really is just a feel thing, I feel he is about to really get going. Also a timing thing. Swan is likely to fall again, Gibbs won't increase greatly without a big weekend and I'm just not sold on Selwood...

Also worth noting, I have a big league match this week and Gibbs would be a defensive trade and I don't like doing them if I have a reasonable alternative. He also fits perfectly into my trading strategy and will all my next few trades to be focused on cashing in and then another round of upgrading.

 

[magpies03]

Just a little concerned as to why you're leaning towards the only one with Durability listed as a CON rather than a PRO. If you're laying down money on a keeper it's a crucial attribute.

Out of those 4 id go selwood first just because he has dropped so much and looks to have bottomed out with a big score on the weekend. Then id go swan who is probably the best of the bunch, bottomed out if not close to it and very durable.

 

[samwise]

Seems like a few people in here are also having the same problem as me. These are my options.

Option 1: Bastinac -> Swan + 40k

Option 2: Trengove -> Swan , Hall -> S Johnson

Option 3: Bastinac -> Hayes, Hall -> Johnson / next week Brown

Option 4: Bastinac -> Gibbs , Hall -> Didak

With option 2 trengove's b/e is only 31 compared to Bastinac's 68. Plus SJ is really worrying with injury and being rested at the end of the year. However I would get 2 upgrades for 2 trades. I want Swan because he provides better captaincy than Bartel.

Which would you go?

 

[darooda]

Steve Johnson or Alan Didak?

Yogi..... who did you end up going with?

Im in the same predicament this week.... am thinking of trading up to either Stevie J or Didak but am torn between the two. They have previously shown pretty comparable numbers.

Ive had a look through the history on durability and i notice with didak the 4 games he missed at the end of 08 was when he had that car crash with Heater. Not saying that he hasnt missed games through injury but if you take that out of the equation he has only had the one 5 week injury (hamstring) in the past 2 years.

Stevie J had the club suspension (drinking incident?) for his first 5 games of the 07 season. Stevie J did miss 6 out of 9 games at the end of last year (cant remember what the injury was, ankle springs to mind?) but between his club imposed suspension and the injury towards the end of last year he strung 58 consecutive games together.

They are both more than capable of scoring you the occasional 130+ (as stevie J has already proven) but also more than capable of going missing (Stevie J 2 x 35 pt games thus far).

Any views on this one guys?

 

[WoGiTaLiA]

Any views on this one guys?

You pick both knowing what you will get I think.

That is you are going to get mostly 80s with the odd 120+ and the odd 60-.

Things worth noting perhaps...

Didak
- Plays more midfield than SJ
- Collingwood historically the weaker team
- Has shown time and again that he is susceptible to the tag.
- Likely to cop the tag with only really Davis, Swan and Pendlebury being anywhere near his calibre.

Johnson
- Less midfield time.
- Geelong better team
- Geelong also tendency to rest players late in the season
- Does not see many tags.
- Has higher highs and lower lows generally(which is largely due to the midfield time).

My major concern with both players is that their tackling seems to come and go and that is a large part of why they struggle for consistency.

Also worth looking at their teams for guys coming back. Collingwood are pretty much at full strength. Guys like Lockyer and O'Bree can't even get a game atm. Geelong have Stokes still to come back, Rooke, Ablett and Corey also to come back, Varcoe to find form. I'm not entirely sure how those guys affect SJ, I think Chappy is the guy who has the biggest impact on his game but I can see cases for all those guys both helping or hurting SJ. I think the main thing to take is that Didak is playing the role he will all season and that SJ could change.

Both are "underpriced" and both are good keepers. As long as you accept that you will get the highs and lows that come with them. They are basically forward line versions of Gilbee and Heath Shaw.

Durability is overrated with both, though if that is an issue that concerns you greatly, perhaps wait a week and see how Goodes goes as he will probably fall against Geelong to a similar type of price as those guys.

Also don't expect SJ to do anywhere near as well this week, I expect Mattner will wear him like a glove.

 

[Hurley300]

That's great and all but who is under 100K worth getting? And what premium are you going to get? Have they dropped for a reason?

Howlett, dominating in the 2s and is over his ankle injury. Will play this weekend with the lose of Welsh for 4 weeks and Dyson 6-8 weeks.

 

[magpies03]

Howlett, dominating in the 2s and is over his ankle injury. Will play this weekend with the lose of Welsh for 4 weeks and Dyson 6-8 weeks.

Do you think he could hold his spot mate? I havent seen alot of him but is tempting me more that cunners due to his price

 

[Bardon Saint]

I have 349500 to use if I trade Ladson.

My thoughts were Chad Cornes at 287K as his last two scores have been 85 & 98 but has dipped almost 100k for the season thus far.

OR

Paul Bower at 313K. He has only played 2 games and would expect a price rise as his average over the 2 games is 111.5.

Has Cornes turned the corner? Help with Bower? I know almost nothing about him.

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

Ok, this week I'm going Peterson to Fyfe.

One more trade. Should I do Basti => Swan or Nason -> Hargrave? Whichever one I don't do this week I'll do next week. Just not sure which to do first. So essentially considering price changes (hargrave will likely go up more than swan) What is better, playing swan and nason or hargrave and basti.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Sell high, Buy low ni99a!

 

[Youdy]

Mitch clark, cox or kreuzer for seaby?

 

[Jeremias]

Cox looks like he is on the steady improve after a slow start to the season.

 

[WeninRome]

Cox looks like he is on the steady improve after a slow start to the season.

looks like we are playing mirror's with our avatars..nice

 

[Main Man]

Who is the best option?

Gilbert, Gilbee, Grimes or Malceski?

malceski looks tempting at the price but can he keep it up?

 

[Cynic]

Who is the best option?

Gilbert, Gilbee, Grimes or Malceski?

malceski looks tempting at the price but can he keep it up?

I would suggest Gilbert although Grimes the most cost effective...

 

[WakeUpPies]

Pick Gilbert

I have and he has averaged me around 105 since getting him The amount of +6 is amazing.

 

[Majestic1]

Ok, this week I'm going Peterson to Fyfe.

One more trade. Should I do Basti => Swan or Nason -> Hargrave? Whichever one I don't do this week I'll do next week. Just not sure which to do first. So essentially considering price changes (hargrave will likely go up more than swan) What is better, playing swan and nason or hargrave and basti.

Swan 120 + Nason 60 = 180

Hargave 80 + Batinac 70 = 150 (This will save you about 15k)

So its 30 points verse 15k saved. Also would like to see another game from Hargrave. Has only scored well in one game and that was a massive scoring game for the dogs.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

Kornes vs. anyone below his price.

Dollar for dollar is Kane one of the best value mids in the competition right now?

 

[twarby]

Kornes vs. anyone below his price.

Dollar for dollar is Kane one of the best value mids in the competition right now?

hes probably the best value mid who is currently performing, besides adam selwood