Prediction Our Rebuild Will Ultimately Fail - Prove Yourself Correct - 5YR Ladder Prediction

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Looks at recent comments and wondering what the big deal is.

* Reads original post *

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Nice prediction OP.

The sad thing is we can't even make finals let alone top 4 in year 6 of our rebuild.

Dawson and Walker masked our issues. Ball movement sucks and our other KPFs are way too inconsistent.

Bad drafting at the top end means we're left with too many poorly skilled battlers. We are very lucky Dawson and Rankine wanted to come home. Should have stayed in Sydney Jordan, sorry you've come to this mess.
 
It’s sad when literally the only positives of any note that have taken place since Nicks took over are:

Selecting Worrell at Pick 28
Selecting Soligo at Pick 36
Bagging Nankervis in the preseason draft
Trading for Dawson
Trading for Rankine
Re-signing Soligo on a long term deal before he turned into a top 5 player at the club
Securing Michalanney as a father-son

All of the other draft picks are either completely unproven, or have been somewhere between monumental disasters and mediocre.

The player development of draftees in general has been a farce, particularly in the midfield.

The complete lack of anything resembling selection integrity, and stubborn insistence on playing certain players out of position or playing certain players who are completely cooked liabilities has been pathetic.

The failure to secure any remotely competent assistants other than James Rahilly is negligent. Letting Rahilly go was vintage AFC.

I clearly missed this thread back in 2022, but happy to provide a 5 year prediction starting from now.


2024: 13th (I’d have a sizeable bet on this. Precisely 13th. Not 12th. Not 14th.)

2025: 10th (Nicks is finally sacked midseason, we win some junk time games late in the year to rise to 10th and the kings of mediocrity are slapping bums about the good times ahead. Tex and Smith both retire. Interim coach Scott Burns puts his hand up for the top job at the end of the season, but ultimately, we look elsewhere. Ogilvie inexplicably retains his job despite the kid he takes in Rd 1 of the 2024 draft having an infinitely worse debut season than a dozen players taken after him, including one of our own later picks. Luke Pedlar is ready for the delist bin.)

2026: 9th (looking great for a finals finish but choke in the last month against average teams to blow it. Ben Keays has something to do with it all going wrong in one particular game. The most experienced players on the list continue to be the ones responsible for close losses. New coach finally bins Laird)

2027: 7th (club hails this monumental success after 9 years outside the 8. We then lose the elimination final by 40+)

2028: 12th (back to Shitsville. Rachele leaves. Whoever the new coach is gets mauled. Nobody really cares anymore. Wembanyama is putting up stat lines not seen since Wilt. Tarantino moves into full time foot pr0n. Swans have won 2 of the last 5 flags and also lost another GF in that time. Buckley is coaching Tassie. Nicks is coaching the Northern Bullants)
 

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huludicidal said:
It’s sad when literally the only positives of any note that have taken place since Nicks took over are:

Selecting Worrell at Pick 28
Selecting Soligo at Pick 36
Bagging Nankervis in the preseason draft
Trading for Dawson
Trading for Rankine
Re-signing Soligo on a long term deal before he turned into a top 5 player at the club
Securing Michalanney as a father-son

All of the other draft picks are either completely unproven, or have been somewhere between monumental disasters and mediocre.

The player development of draftees in general has been a farce, particularly in the midfield.

The complete lack of anything resembling selection integrity, and stubborn insistence on playing certain players out of position or playing certain players who are completely cooked liabilities has been pathetic.

The failure to secure any remotely competent assistants other than James Rahilly is negligent. Letting Rahilly go was vintage AFC.

I clearly missed this thread back in 2022, but happy to provide a 5 year prediction starting from now.


2024: 13th (I’d have a sizeable bet on this. Precisely 13th. Not 12th. Not 14th.)

2025: 10th (Nicks is finally sacked midseason, we win some junk time games late in the year to rise to 10th and the kings of mediocrity are slapping bums about the good times ahead. Tex and Smith both retire. Interim coach Scott Burns puts his hand up for the top job at the end of the season, but ultimately, we look elsewhere. Ogilvie inexplicably retains his job despite the kid he takes in Rd 1 of the 2024 draft having an infinitely worse debut season than a dozen players taken after him, including one of our own later picks. Luke Pedlar is ready for the delist bin.)

2026: 9th (looking great for a finals finish but choke in the last month against average teams to blow it. Ben Keays has something to do with it all going wrong in one particular game. The most experienced players on the list continue to be the ones responsible for close losses. New coach finally bins Laird)

2027: 7th (club hails this monumental success after 9 years outside the 8. We then lose the elimination final by 40+)

2028: 12th (back to Shitsville. Rachele leaves. Whoever the new coach is gets mauled. Nobody really cares anymore. Wembanyama is putting up stat lines not seen since Wilt. Tarantino moves into full time foot pr0n. Swans have won 2 of the last 5 flags and also lost another GF in that time. Buckley is coaching Tassie. Nicks is coaching the Northern Bullants)
Click to expand...
We drafted Michalanney at 17 in 2022. If he wasn't F/S would he have gone higher?
 
Harris1991 said:
We drafted Michalanney at 17 in 2022. If he wasn't F/S would he have gone higher?
Click to expand...
No, he goes wherever someone bids on him. We used a mish mash of later junk picks to match Sydney’s bid, which is why any father-son that turns out to be a good player is far better value than using a real pick on them.
 
I think we can officially say the rebuild has failed and we now have to enter Rebuild 2. We have to do it now before the Tasmanian squad becomes a reality.

Our squad has more holes in it than a colander. I am not sure why Nicksy makes outrageous statements "like this is the squad that will take us to the finals" and he is extremely happy with the players he has.

Our ruckman is not A standard and needs to be replaced.
We need two gun mids to replace Laird and add extra depth.
We need two good wingers if we are not going to use Nank and Hinge in those positions.
We need some gun tall forwards who can take a contested mark.

We need depth all over the field. Our reserves are struggling and some of our senior players such as Keays, Murphy, Ned, Hammil etc have shown now that they are simply not good enough at the AFL level because of a lack of skill or a lack of ability. They've had their time and they need to be replaced.

Incoming players must be able to kick with some precision. They must also have a trick which they can add to their game eg pace, agility, marking power, football intel etc. Im sick of players kicking over the head of others or not being able to kick on their non preferred foot or missing easy goals from 15m out.

We have been too patient enough with underperforming players. Players like Smith, Laird ( who made token efforts in the first qr on Sat to chase - watch the replay to see ) Rachele need to be dropped and made to earn their spot, rather than just meandering along and being selected each week. Integrity at selection is a must and will improve the team in the long run.

More pain to come.
 
bigman said:
More pain to come.
Click to expand...

Things can turn around very quickly though.

If we get rid of Nicks and Co and have an offseason like 2021 (Rachele/Soligo/Dawson) or 2022 (Max/Rankine) then we are not far off at all.

We are 1 win from 6 games decided by 15 points or less in 2024.

We are 1 win from 7 games decided by 15 points less in 2023.

Thats a combined 2 wins from 13 games decided by 15 points or less in the past 18 months.
 
bigman said:
I think we can officially say the rebuild has failed and we now have to enter Rebuild 2. We have to do it now before the Tasmanian squad becomes a reality.

Our squad has more holes in it than a colander. I am not sure why Nicksy makes outrageous statements "like this is the squad that will take us to the finals" and he is extremely happy with the players he has.

Our ruckman is not A standard and needs to be replaced.
We need two gun mids to replace Laird and add extra depth.
We need two good wingers if we are not going to use Nank and Hinge in those positions.
We need some gun tall forwards who can take a contested mark.

We need depth all over the field. Our reserves are struggling and some of our senior players such as Keays, Murphy, Ned, Hammil etc have shown now that they are simply not good enough at the AFL level because of a lack of skill or a lack of ability. They've had their time and they need to be replaced.

Incoming players must be able to kick with some precision. They must also have a trick which they can add to their game eg pace, agility, marking power, football intel etc. Im sick of players kicking over the head of others or not being able to kick on their non preferred foot or missing easy goals from 15m out.

We have been too patient enough with underperforming players. Players like Smith, Laird ( who made token efforts in the first qr on Sat to chase - watch the replay to see ) Rachele need to be dropped and made to earn their spot, rather than just meandering along and being selected each week. Integrity at selection is a must and will improve the team in the long run.

More pain to come.
Click to expand...
ROB is the definitely the biggest concern, Laird has already been replaced in the midfield this year by Rankine and Soligo has gone pass him as importance but we still need a powerful burst midfielder if it isn't Pedlar and we need Fogarty and Thilthorpe to step up as KPF and Welsh who doesn't mind crashing the pack to develop into a top 10 pick. Of course the SANFL side is going to struggle given the number of injuries we have to first choice players as it mean there a much big difference of talent with the top up used.
 
bigman said:
I think we can officially say the rebuild has failed and we now have to enter Rebuild 2. We have to do it now before the Tasmanian squad becomes a reality.

Our squad has more holes in it than a colander. I am not sure why Nicksy makes outrageous statements "like this is the squad that will take us to the finals" and he is extremely happy with the players he has.

Our ruckman is not A standard and needs to be replaced.
We need two gun mids to replace Laird and add extra depth.
We need two good wingers if we are not going to use Nank and Hinge in those positions.
We need some gun tall forwards who can take a contested mark.

We need depth all over the field. Our reserves are struggling and some of our senior players such as Keays, Murphy, Ned, Hammil etc have shown now that they are simply not good enough at the AFL level because of a lack of skill or a lack of ability. They've had their time and they need to be replaced.

Incoming players must be able to kick with some precision. They must also have a trick which they can add to their game eg pace, agility, marking power, football intel etc. Im sick of players kicking over the head of others or not being able to kick on their non preferred foot or missing easy goals from 15m out.

We have been too patient enough with underperforming players. Players like Smith, Laird ( who made token efforts in the first qr on Sat to chase - watch the replay to see ) Rachele need to be dropped and made to earn their spot, rather than just meandering along and being selected each week. Integrity at selection is a must and will improve the team in the long run.

More pain to come.
Click to expand...
If the club made this decision and actually communicated it to the members I would support it.

Curtin, Rachele, Thilthorpe, Pedlar, Edwards, Dawson, Soligo, Cook, Michalanney, Hinge, Ryan, Rankine, Worrell, Nankervis, Murray, Dowling, Fogarty, Keane must be the base group we prioritise from now on.

Others who get one more chance while we try and find the players we need via drafting and free agency - Jones, Berry, Taylor, Schoenberg, Milera, Butts, Sholl.

Get a cheap ruck who we could see becoming afl standard - Moyle?
Draft mids in 2024 and 2025 drafts. Ideally finishing low in 2025. Draper and Sharp?

Trade Obrien, Murphy, Laird.
Free agent - Perryman

2026 side

FB: Worrell ~ Murray ~ Perryman
HB: Hinge ~ Keane ~ Michalanney
C: Nankervis ~ Rankine ~ Dawson
R: Moyle ~ Soligo ~ Curtin
HF: Rachele ~ Fogarty ~ Cook
FF: Welsh ~ Thilthorpe ~ Pedlar
B: Edwards ~ Ryan ~ Draper ~ Sharp
S: Dowling
 
ABAB said:
ROB is the definitely the biggest concern, Laird has already been replaced in the midfield this year by Rankine and Soligo has gone pass him as importance but we still need a powerful burst midfielder if it isn't Pedlar and we need Fogarty and Thilthorpe to step up as KPF and Welsh who doesn't mind crashing the pack to develop into a top 10 pick. Of course the SANFL side is going to struggle given the number of injuries we have to first choice players as it mean there a much big difference of talent with the top up used.
Click to expand...

We have so many other needs than replacing ROB.

We could throw in Strachan easily and it wouldn't matter. ROB is fine. Upgrading him is a luxury, not a necessity.
 
AFC979810 said:
We have so many other needs than replacing ROB.

We could throw in Strachan easily and it wouldn't matter. ROB is fine. Upgrading him is a luxury, not a necessity.
Click to expand...
ROB is fine? What's his excuse now given he has a quality midfield surrounding him instead of Laird as your most important midfielder so his "hit out" to advantage will be much easier for him.
 

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ABAB said:
ROB is fine? What's his excuse now given he has a quality midfield surrounding him instead of Laird as your most important midfielder so his "hit out" to advantage will be much easier for him.
Click to expand...

No excuse needed. He is an able bodied ruck man who competes.

Its the modern AFL - ruck man dont really matter as long as you have a semi-decent one.
 
AFC979810 said:
No excuse needed. He is an able bodied ruck man who competes.

Its the modern AFL - ruck man dont really matter as long as you have a semi-decent one.
Click to expand...
I would agree if he wasn't bloody useless around the ground for him to be a semi-decent one given his lack of ruck craft, he used to be an excellent contested mark around the ground, particularly in defense in 2020 when he won the B&F.
 
We started the rebuild when we thought most players had enough time to impact finals and bring along the rest

But now we have not only burnt the older players but the crop underneath

We really do need to identify major trade targets - from our club to someone - if Curtin is part of that so be it . Freos 2 x 1st or a combination of 1 and 2 ( but we will roll over at a 2nd ) and others who have some perceived value

We need to be brave

Enjoy the flag because I dont think I will be here for it
 
huludicidal said:
No, he goes wherever someone bids on him. We used a mish mash of later junk picks to match Sydney’s bid, which is why any father-son that turns out to be a good player is far better value than using a real pick on them.
Click to expand...
Until the AFL finally fix their faulty pick values and put stricter rules in place so you don't get NDaicos, JUH, Darcy, Ashcroft with a bag of picks in the 40s and 50s

Our rebuild under real pressure now unless we have a number of break out players, Curtin, Dowling, Pedlar, Cook, TT etc
 
huludicidal said:
It’s sad when literally the only positives of any note that have taken place since Nicks took over are:

Selecting Worrell at Pick 28
Selecting Soligo at Pick 36
Bagging Nankervis in the preseason draft
Trading for Dawson
Trading for Rankine
Re-signing Soligo on a long term deal before he turned into a top 5 player at the club
Securing Michalanney as a father-son
Click to expand...
Nah, there's more positives than that. Very happy with our backline all things considered, Keane is a good find, Hinge and Murray were good pickups, I think Thilthorpe is going to be a very good player, and it's still a young group with plenty of upside in which players who we already have on the list can emerge and show something. Guys like Cook and Pedlar are not writeoffs yet, Rachele definitely is not, etc. There's weak spots in the list for sure but we're not that far off being a good team.

Biggest concern for me is turning around our record in close games and working through the loss of Walker given our lack of players in that 25-29 age bracket. Needless to say he will be a huge loss and it's not clear how good our forward line will be afterwards. A lot depends on Thilthorpe.
 
NSolis said:
Nah, there's more positives than that. Very happy with our backline all things considered, Keane is a good find, Hinge and Murray were good pickups, I think Thilthorpe is going to be a very good player, and it's still a young group with plenty of upside in which players who we already have on the list can emerge and show something. Guys like Cook and Pedlar are not writeoffs yet, Rachele definitely is not, etc. There's weak spots in the list for sure but we're not that far off being a good team.

Biggest concern for me is turning around our record in close games and working through the loss of Walker given our lack of players in that 25-29 age bracket. Needless to say he will be a huge loss and it's not clear how good our forward line will be afterwards. A lot depends on Thilthorpe.
Click to expand...
No concern around Nicks?
 
GreyCrow said:
No concern around Nicks?
Click to expand...
Yes, though I tend to feel like sacking Nicks will happen inevitably if we don't achieve a turnaround in results early next year. He's not going to get sacked this year if the team is performing respectably so it's not a huge focus for now. If there's a losing streak that becomes possible.

The Rachele thing is interesting though as buyin from the players has always been Nicks' biggest success story for me, with the week to week competitiveness on the field having a lot to do with that. Rachele complaining in the media is the first real sign of an issue in that area I've seen in Nicks' tenure, so that's one to keep an eye on. Once you lose the players it's done obviously.
 

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