On current form, Sydney should be flag favourites

[tigers_of_old_08]

As opposed to the Hawks in the Qualifying Final?

Just my opinion on why I thoungt the Swans will win.
Good luck to your team on Saturday, I'm hoping for a great game!

 

[psychobrown]

Yes Sydney are favourites if we go by last week, but Hodge will make a difference

 

[Duritz]

Quite a bit of arrogance from the Hawks fans in this thread, as though they think it's as good as over.

 

[db swannie]

Hawks are favorites, and I hope it stays that way.

But in the end, well after the ball is bounced, it all means nil. I expect a very fierce contest.

 

[hk89]

Quite a bit of arrogance from the Hawks fans in this thread, as though they think it's as good as over.

Quite a bit of stupidity too from those who don't seem to understand why Sydney are not favourites. As one poster already pointed out 2 losses out of the last 19 versus 3 losses out of the last 6 is really all you need to know. Hawthorn fans shouldn't be overconfident, Sydney are a good side, and have a game plan which matches up well against our own, but to say Sydney should be flag favourites as stated in the OP is going a bit too far.

You appear to be a troll hiding as a moderator on probation, and when the supporters you are trolling are silly enough to take the bait, you bring out the 'arrogance' tag. Nice work indeed. It would be a pity to lose such a skilful troll to the moderation group, as it is posters like you that have made the main board what it is today.

 

[Messenger]

Forget the media hyperbole for a minute, and consider the facts:

1. Hawthorn fell in against the "undeserving" Crows, while Sydney dominated Collingwood.
2. Sydney dominated the Crows, on the Crows home ground, only 2 weeks before Hawthorn nearly lost to the Crows on the Hawks home ground.
3. Buddy Franklin MAY be cited for the late hit and may miss the GF.
4. Hodge - obviously a doubt to return.
5. Schoenmakers - terribly out of form as future Lion Kurt Tippet showed.
6. Only a few weeks ago Sydney dominated Hawthorn, keeping them goalless to 1/4 time before a flat spot from the usually reliable Swans let hawthorn back in.
7. They can't catch Lewis Jetta, a player made for the wider MCG, rather than the postage stamp SCG.
8. LRT
9. Hawthorn, since 08, have built up an impressive record of choking in finals. It could be argued that only umpires got them through the prelim this year.
10. Sydney spent most of the year top of the ladder, Hawks only there for 2 weeks this year. In 2012, Sydney have been the best team, as proven also by -
11. When they met earlier in the year, at Hawthorn's Tasmanian "fortress", the Swans annihilated them.

Hawthorn are favourites for two reasons:

1. The books to a man took a lot of money on hawks for the flag earlier in the year and all have Hawthorn as worst result, and -
2. The year long Hawthorn media wankfest.

The odds do not reflect reality. Sydney have dominated Hawthorn when they've met, are the better team and should be flag favourites.

And I believe sensible, objective Hawks fans would know this.

Duritz you can kiss your moderator probation goodbye. Showing this sort of disrespect is not an ideal career advancement strategy.

Having read your analysis, I think I can reveal your media identity. You are Paul Roos.

 

[Duritz]

Duritz you can kiss your moderator probation goodbye. Showing this sort of disrespect is not an ideal career advancement strategy.

Having read your analysis, I think I can reveal your media identity. You are Paul Roos.

Didn't Chief share the meat tray I sent to the mods lounge?

 

[Messenger]

Didn't Chief share the meat tray I sent to the mods lounge?

Chief doesn't share, Duritz.

 

[Duritz]

Chief doesn't share, Duritz.

Jeez... I sent three trays. One tray had a pile of salami as high as a car, a second had cheeses and dips and sausages and and 14 types of bacon. The third had Coles party pies and a note saying "give this one to the mods, keep the good shit for yourself. You deserve it big man."

You saying he kept the lot???

 

[db swannie]

Jeez... I sent three trays. One tray had a pile of salami as high as a car, a second had cheeses and dips and sausages and and 14 types of bacon. The third had Coles party pies and a note saying "give this one to the mods, keep the good shit for yourself. You deserve it big man."

You saying he kept the lot???

Did you include a ham?

 

[Duritz]

Did you include a ham?

Bugger!!!

 

[Ron The Bear]

Sydney can't afford to be 5+ goals below their best, yet the numbers say that's the case at the MCG:

Last 5 years
Avg score at MCG: 76
Avg score against: 96

Avg score elsewhere: 94
Avg score against: 81

In that period they've won once from 13 games, against a rudderless Richmond marking time with a caretaker coach. I can't explain the technical reasons for it, but the numbers say they can't play the MCG. Hawthorn have them covered for talent, are just as hard at the ball when the mood takes them, had their wake-up call last week and will get the job done comfortably.

 

[yoshi2284]

the above says it all, sydney 1 win in 13 matches at mcg
hawks will rip them apart

unless franklin does a hammy or something like that, u never know

 

[Hawkk]

Sydney can't afford to be 5+ goals below their best, yet the numbers say that's the case at the MCG:

Last 5 years
Avg score at MCG: 76
Avg score against: 96

Avg score elsewhere: 94
Avg score against: 81

In that period they've won once from 13 games, against a rudderless Richmond marking time with a caretaker coach. I can't explain the technical reasons for it, but the numbers say they can't play the MCG. Hawthorn have them covered for talent, are just as hard at the ball when the mood takes them, had their wake-up call last week and will get the job done comfortably.

Ron, I hope you are correct.

How do you see the rain impacting on the result, if at all?

I can't decide whether it helps Hawthorn (negating the opportunity for 'slingshot' goals) or Sydney (making the game tighter and giving the Swans an opportunity to play the Roos style lock down, contested football)

 

[Ron The Bear]

Ron, I hope you are correct.

How do you see the rain impacting on the result, if at all?

I can't decide whether it helps Hawthorn (negating the opportunity for 'slingshot' goals) or Sydney (making the game tighter and giving the Swans an opportunity to play the Roos style lock down, contested football)

Had heard it might rain but hadn't looked at the forecast until now. Has to be in Sydney's favour as it would slow the game down and impact skill level. Actually it does change the picture a bit.

 

[Hawkk]

Had heard it might rain but hadn't looked at the forecast until now. Has to be in Sydney's favour as it would slow the game down and impact skill level. Actually it does change the picture a bit.

I was pretty impressed with how Hawthorn handled the rain when they defeated the Magpies in the first week of the finals.

Anyone know what Sydney's record in the wet is like this season?

 

[db swannie]

Sydney can't afford to be 5+ goals below their best, yet the numbers say that's the case at the MCG:

Last 5 years
Avg score at MCG: 76
Avg score against: 96

Avg score elsewhere: 94
Avg score against: 81

In that period they've won once from 13 games, against a rudderless Richmond marking time with a caretaker coach. I can't explain the technical reasons for it, but the numbers say they can't play the MCG. Hawthorn have them covered for talent, are just as hard at the ball when the mood takes them, had their wake-up call last week and will get the job done comfortably.

We hadn't beaten Collingwood for 7 years (11 straight games as everyone knows) until last Friday. Past records are meaningless to some extent, especially after the opening bounce. Happy for everyone to keep writing us off though.

 

[hk89]

We hadn't beaten Collingwood for 7 years (11 straight games as everyone knows) until last Friday. Past records are meaningless to some extent, especially after the opening bounce. Happy for everyone to keep writing us off though.

Yes, this concerns me somewhat. People think breaking the pies hoodoo and breaking the MCG hoodoo are independent events, so figure the chances of doing both are very small. But really, the fact that they beat the Pies hoodoo probably shows they are in better form than they have been while the hoodoo remained, so they are in fact more likely to be in a position to break the MCG hoodoo compared to the past (to the extent that either hoodoo is form related, which to a degree they must be).

I hold on to the hope that the MCG hoodoo is a bit more about team structure, and building a team around a game plan that works best at the SCG. Sydney do have a plan B these days, but the majority of their team was still built up with the SCG in the back of the recruiter's mind, and we haven't seen enough of the plan B at the MCG to assess it properly yet. Strategically, it will be an interesting game I think. I still think if both teams play at their best, the Hawk's best is a bit better (more top-end talent), but a wet day could even that up. While I think it is still obvious why Hawk's are favourites (more consistent team in the lead up to finals and question marks on swans MCG game plan), Sydney are probably still good value at their current price.

 

[Roby]

On current form? LOL.

Do you know the last team to have lost three of their last four H & A games and went on to win the Grand Final? I don't think it has ever happened before.

In fact, Richmond in 1980 were the last team to lose three of their last six H & A games and then gone on to win the Grand Final.

 

[db swannie]

Yes, this concerns me somewhat. People think breaking the pies hoodoo and breaking the MCG hoodoo are independent events, so figure the chances of doing both are very small. But really, the fact that they beat the Pies hoodoo probably shows they are in better form than they have been while the hoodoo remained, so they are in fact more likely to be in a position to break the MCG hoodoo compared to the past (to the extent that either hoodoo is form related, which to a degree they must be).

I hold on to the hope that the MCG hoodoo is a bit more about team structure, and building a team around a game plan that works best at the SCG. Sydney do have a plan B these days, but the majority of their team was still built up with the SCG in the back of the recruiter's mind, and we haven't seen enough of the plan B at the MCG to assess it properly yet. Strategically, it will be an interesting game I think. I still think if both teams play at their best, the Hawk's best is a bit better (more top-end talent), but a wet day could even that up. While I think it is still obvious why Hawk's are favourites (more consistent team in the lead up to finals and question marks on swans MCG game plan), Sydney are probably still good value at their current price.

Given the fact that we've won on some very big grounds this year (and won in 6 states, no mean feat) like aami, subiaco and tassie, I'm not sure the "big ground" theory is as relevant as it has been in the past. Yes, we still play a very tight, contested game of footy, but we've added leg speed to our mids, and Goodes has been freed up to play forward a lot more.

As I said before, Hawks will start favorites, and so they should, they were minor premiers. But I give us every chance of winning on Sat, regardless of the weather.

 

[thebarry111]

This year is eerily similar to the year Geelong scrapped through against the pies in the prelim and then came out and smashed port the next week. The swans game plan will not suit the MCG, there is too much wide open space to contain the hawks. All the pressure will be off the hawks after last week and they should tear the game open. Only thing that will keep this game tight will be the weather. Form through the year means little, Port beat Geelong at the end of the season and look how that game ended up.

 

[Hawkk]

This year is eerily similar to the year Geelong scrapped through against the pies in the prelim and then came out and smashed port the next week. The swans game plan will not suit the MCG, there is too much wide open space to contain the hawks. All the pressure will be off the hawks after last week and they should tear the game open. Only thing that will keep this game tight will be the weather. Form through the year means little, Port beat Geelong at the end of the season and look how that game ended up.

Just on this, its the wind rather than the rain that will have an impact.

The BOM are predicting around 1mm to 5mm of rain to fall across the Saturday (and 5mm to 10mm tomorrow) given the drainage at the MCG this won't have an impact on the quality of the game.

Like I said in another thread, there are a hell of a lot of simularities with the Hawthorn-Collingwood Qualifying Final from a conditions perspective, that night wind gusts of up to 35km were experienced across the night which no doubt took its toll on field kicking. Further still, our round 23 game against the Eagles was impacted by cold, gusty 35-40km winds as well...

 

[Duritz]

Oh it'll be windy all right. It'll be gusty. Forecast calls for 45km winds gusting up to 60km with a 95% chance of localised tears falling should Hawthorn get beat.

 

[tazhawk]

Oh it'll be windy all right. It'll be gusty. Forecast calls for 45km winds gusting up to 60km with a 95% chance of localised tears falling should Hawthorn get beat.

So if Sydney do not win there will be no tears from their fans?

Ok dude we get it you want Sydney to win.

But do you have to point it out in every thread.

We get it, we really do.

 

[Duritz]

So if Sydney do not win there will be no tears from their fans?

Ok dude we get it you want Sydney to win.

But do you have to point it out in every thread.

We get it, we really do.

I take that as a personal affront. Not once have I mentioned the Swans winning in the Travis Cloke thread. Not once.