List Mgmt. National & Rookie Draft 2021

[Lore]

Hey guys, thought you might like to have this resource on your board (scuse the intrusion!) – mods might like to sticky it so it's visible at the top of the thread

 

[Ailurus]

I didn't know that.

Then using current ladder positions, in 2022,

Pick 27 becomes pick 35.

So the trade off here is essentially - would you rather 2022 pick 35 or 2021 pick 36 and pick 38...

Well considering both picks would get used in an Owens bid its 2022 pick 35 or a bunch of picks in the 50s

 

[ScrappyDo]

Would you be interested in trading a future 2nd for a combination of our 2nd rounders this year (36 and 38)?

We'd likely be interested in trading the future 2nd, but only to target an individual rather than simply having a pick to use. It would just depend on who's available and what pick, but of course, you won't have those picks anyway.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The point would be to avoid a deficit for next year, which would drop your 2022 1st in position.

Currently as it stands, you don't have enough points to match an early 20s bid, and if the bid comes in at a nice spot, you only 36 will be used to match and you get to use 38 on a live selection.

Bulldogs and Pies will remove 10 picks from the draft before our second.

If we match at 21, we need 681 points.
We'll have 45 - 347, 51 - 259, 56-194.

Plenty of points.

 

[Prochard123]

Well considering both picks would get used in an Owens bid its 2022 pick 35 or a bunch of picks in the 50s

True, but this way you wouldn't have to keep 4-5 spots open in the draft (to use the picks) just for the 1 NGA player.

 

[bird_man]

I didn't know that.

Then using current ladder positions, in 2022,

Pick 27 becomes pick 35.

So the trade off here is essentially - would you rather 2022 pick 35 or 2021 pick 36 and pick 38...

Would rather pick 35 considering we'd have to use those picks on our NGA's

We have a 3rd and 2 4ths that we can use to trade in to get more points if we think it's an issue but we won't need a lot.

The chances of Owens actually going 21 is very small.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

True, but this way you wouldn't have to keep 4-5 spots open in the draft (to use the picks) just for the 1 NGA player.

Our list management are on top of it, they ain't the Gold Coast.

 

[Dr Spaceman]

As it stands, using current ladder positions, a 200 point deficit would push your 2022 future 1st from pick 9 to pick 12.

I think it's been since been shown that our 2022 future 1st would not be affected by going into deficit, however it's worth pointing out that our 2022 future 1st will become Gold Coast's in any event

 

[Prochard123]

I think it's been since been shown that our 2022 future 1st would not be affected by going into deficit, however it's worth pointing out that our 2022 future 1st will become Gold Coast's in any event

GC gets your 1st, you guys get De Goey, and we get Ben King?

 

[Ailurus]

GC gets your 1st, you guys get De Goey, and we get Ben King?

Are you giving us a first on top of De Goey?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The point would be to avoid a deficit for next year, which would drop your 2022 1st in position.

Currently as it stands, you don't have enough points to match an early 20s bid, and if the bid comes in at a nice spot, you only 36 will be used to match and you get to use 38 on a live selection.

If matching a second round pick, its the future 2nd that gets downgraded with the deficit.

 

[Dr Spaceman]

GC gets your 1st, you guys get De Goey, and we get Ben King?

If we get Ben King as well as Max King we'll all be getting very gooey

 

[Prochard123]

Are you giving us a first on top of De Goey?

Considering De Goey is worth 0 we can give you 2 firsts on top of that and it would still be a win.

 

[St Neil]

You don't have the points at the moment.

If a bid comes at 21, you need 702.4 points including the 20% discount.

If you keep 5 positions open just to use the points for matching the bid (which really hurts your list btw), you would still only have 512 points (using all of 55, 61, 65, 66, 81)

This would knock your future 1st back by quite a few spots.

At the moment, any bid between 21 - 29 would push you into point deficit.

For NGA lads the discount is not 20%. Between picks 21 and 40 it is a flat 197 point discount per matched bid.

After the Daicos and Darcy bids our later draft picks will probably improve by 6-7 positions. Let’s assume 6 positions. Picks 55, 61, 65 and 66 will become 49, 55, 59 and 60.

That gives us a total of 798 draft value index points. If you add the 197 points discount for our first bid we have a total of 995 points. If a bid comes at pick 21 for Owens we can match and we will still have 117 points left.

If you add those 117 to the 197 point discount for Windhager we have a total of 314 points, the equivalent of pick 47. Any deficit we have will be very small.

And this is a worst case scenario. I think we’ll be fine for points. I wouldn’t be trading in any pick until the last moment on draft night, with the intention of using that pick immediately.

 

[Minga]

Cal Twomey’s Phantom Draft is out.

He reckons we’ll take Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera at 11 (over Erasmus/Hobbs/Sinn)!

Is this the silk the Saints are searching for? There's been a group of clubs clamouring for Wanganeen-Milera at the midpoint of the first round who are all keen on the classy wingman, who is the best kick in the draft. It is easy to see why when watching the Glenelg talent: he has poise, precise skills and can step around opponents and make them look silly. The nephew of Essendon and Port Adelaide great Gavin plays on the wing but might start his career providing run off half-back too. St Kilda would look closely at Wanganeen-Milera if he's still available.

If not him? If Josh Gibcus was still on the board the Saints would have to consider strongly, while Ben Hobbs would also be hard to pass up. Josh Goater is another contender for the Saints' spot.

The top 15:

1. JHF
2. Sam Darcy
3. Finn Callaghan
4. Nick Daicos
5. Mac Andrew
6. Josh Rachele
7. Josh Ward
8. Jye Amiss
9. Josh Gibcus
10. Mathew Johnson
11. NWM
12. Neil Erasmus
13. Ben Hobbs
14. Josh Sinn
15. Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

Owens at pick 29, Windhager outside the top 30.

Cal Twomey's 2021 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, club whispers

Who will your club take in this year's NAB AFL Draft? Our guru makes the call

www.afl.com.au

 

[NextYearPlease]

Buckenara did a top 50, obviously take with the necessary tonne of salt.



32. MARCUS WINDHAGER (Possible Saint NGA)

183cm, 82kg, Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro, midfielder

As a member of St Kilda’s Next Generation Academy, Marcus’s progress this season would have caught the eyes of other clubs’ recruiters, I am sure of that. It will be touch and go if he is available for the Saints — if another club picks him top 20, the Saints will not be able to bid. He has really improved and although he has had an interrupted program following a knee reconstruction, he has showed enough to be at least a top 30 pick.


46. MITCH OWENS

191cm, 85kg, Sandringham Dragons/Victoria, midfielder/rebound defender

Mitch is a big midfielder who has really developed physically over the past few years and this has seen him go from playing small/medium forward roles to progressing into the midfield. While the lack of games over the past few years have probably not been ideal for his exposure, I definitely think that he has good football traits — a strong work ethic and polished skills that are sure to see him on clubs’ recruiting talent flow lists.

I like how Windhager is "at least a top 30 pick", so he picks him at 32?

On SM-T290 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[bird_man]

Cal Twomey’s Phantom Draft is out:

Cal Twomey's 2021 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, club whispers

Who will your club take in this year's NAB AFL Draft? Our guru makes the call

www.afl.com.au

He reckons we’ll take Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera at 11 (over Erasmus and Hobbs)!

Is this the silk the Saints are searching for? There's been a group of clubs clamouring for Wanganeen-Milera at the midpoint of the first round who are all keen on the classy wingman, who is the best kick in the draft. It is easy to see why when watching the Glenelg talent: he has poise, precise skills and can step around opponents and make them look silly. The nephew of Essendon and Port Adelaide great Gavin plays on the wing but might start his career providing run off half-back too. St Kilda would look closely at Wanganeen-Milera if he's still available.

If not him? If Josh Gibcus was still on the board the Saints would have to consider strongly, while Ben Hobbs would also be hard to pass up. Josh Goater is another contender for the Saints' spot.

Owens at pick 29.

Surely not

 

[Tommy Wigs]

Surely not

Interesting no mention of Sinn at all as an option. Anyway, long way out, will be lots of shuffles you’d think

 

[BrutThough]

Cal Twomey’s Phantom Draft is out:

Cal Twomey's 2021 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, club whispers

Who will your club take in this year's NAB AFL Draft? Our guru makes the call

www.afl.com.au

He reckons we’ll take Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera at 11 (over Erasmus/Hobbs/Sinn)!

Is this the silk the Saints are searching for? There's been a group of clubs clamouring for Wanganeen-Milera at the midpoint of the first round who are all keen on the classy wingman, who is the best kick in the draft. It is easy to see why when watching the Glenelg talent: he has poise, precise skills and can step around opponents and make them look silly. The nephew of Essendon and Port Adelaide great Gavin plays on the wing but might start his career providing run off half-back too. St Kilda would look closely at Wanganeen-Milera if he's still available.

If not him? If Josh Gibcus was still on the board the Saints would have to consider strongly, while Ben Hobbs would also be hard to pass up. Josh Goater is another contender for the Saints' spot.

Owens at pick 29.

The top 10:

1. JHF
2. Sam Darcy
3. Finn Callaghan
4. Nick Daicos
5. Mac Andrew
6. Josh Rachele
7. Josh Ward
8. Jye Amiss
9. Josh Gibcus
10. Mathew Johnson

Only thing more deflating than using pick 11 on another key position player would be using it on another wing.

 

[Mighty_sainter]

Surely not

get the bucket ready if we pass on hobbs for nwm

 

[Holy Hunter Clark]

If we pass on Hobbs for NWM I’ll be the angriest person on earth


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[XhazzafootyX]

get the bucket ready if we pass on hobbs for nwm

We’d be mad too

 

[sunny3193]

But if they are confident in getting Owens and Windhager, both capable mids though different, why not go for the best mid that is different again to those two?
It’s not a reach for NWM to be picked at #11, he is around that range.
The argument is holistic. The sum of the entire draft is greater than the sum of the individual picks.
I’d much prefer a winger at the first pick than a half back who might transition.

 

[11men1cup]

I've been really stressing over the past few days over Owens. Watching some Spotify/YouTube mock drafts, a lot of them at Owens going in the 17-20 range, especially Melbourne at Pick 19. But those are all just fans like you and me, Cal has the inside scoop so I trust his ranking.

Windhager not in the top 30 is interesting.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BrutThough]

But if they are confident in getting Owens and Windhager, both capable mids though different, why not go for the best mid that is different again to those two?
It’s not a reach for NWM to be picked at #11, he is around that range.
The argument is holistic. The sum of the entire draft is greater than the sum of the individual picks.
I’d much prefer a winger at the first pick than a half back who might transition.

We've already got a pick 3 with 4 more years on 1 wing, 800k and a haul of picks for 4 more years on the other.

We've probably spent more top picks and have bigger contracts on our wings than for our centre square mids.

 

[Tommy Wigs]

We've already got a pick 3 with 4 more years on 1 wing, 800k and a haul of picks for 4 more years on the other.

We've probably spent more top picks and have bigger contracts on our wings than for our centre square mids.

But whether good or bad, we do have a number of centre square mids.