Racing Melbourne Cup Day 2022

[balmainforever]

Anyone who decides to say that they've backed the winner here with no previous mention of it on the board will be given a week holiday

 

[Jugada]

Lol laughable #1 mate - not winning if it started today - might as well throw Carif in #2 and call it Sandown Cup power rankings

Easily good enough this year with that weight and at $61+ is one of few I'm interested in backing at this point. VICs are complete garbage, Goldy gonna have to fight hard to get past RV, DL rock bottom odds with a terrible weight. Only danger is how hard Greggo wrecks it when it wins the Metrop and CC

 

[iluvparis]

Easily good enough this year with that weight and at $61+ is one of few I'm interested in backing at this point. VICs are complete garbage, Goldy gonna have to fight hard to get past RV, DL rock bottom odds with a terrible weight. Only danger is how hard Greggo wrecks it when it wins the Metrop and CC

Nowhere near good enough. The end.

Just like last year the fact the field is shit means the weights are less relevant. And DL at $10 is one of the few bets I’d still have right now. It’s overs, will jump $5 fave and unlike durston can actually win.

 

[iluvparis]

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2022-rv/the-sport/2022-09-20-lexus-melbourne-cup-elimination-order-1st-acceptances-sept-20.pdf?la=en

 

[iluvparis]

The two slowbor runners that were touted aren’t coming. Neither is the St Leger winner

 

[speedingaway]

The general consensus is pretty spot on, there's not a lot of depth here and it's certainly not a strong renewal, which means that some horses who appear outclassed in a typical Melbourne Cup could come into calculations. You could honestly put a pen through almost of all of these, but I'll come up with my own rankings to join in.

1 - Deauville Legend
Seems the logical one at this stage pending how he travels. Think he has a good form line - liked Hoo Ya Mal at the weights too but I think he's a non stayer after his Leger run.

2 - Gold Trip
Thought he was solid enough in the Naturalism, just ran out of fitness late on a bog. Will stay the trip and has a class edge on these.

3 - Young Werther
I thought his run was good first up, loves Flemington and is trained by the right guy for this race.

4 - Spanish Mission
Think it'll be tough for him with 58kg but he's very reliable on the dry and can't see him missing the top 5.

5 - Durston
Racing in much lower grade, but is winning with substance and is one that I hope beats the handicapper (don't bother winning the Metrop).

6 - Without A Fight
Has been winning 3 horse G3's but is winning in the manner of a horse with plenty in hand. His form in decent mile and a half races in Dubai is good.

7 - Montefilia
In my opinion, the classiest local in the race. I have big doubts on her running the two miles, but she's tough, versatile and is more seasoned now.

8 - Alegron
I have a class doubt on him (like basically all of the locals) but he is dependable, stays well and likes Flemington. Think he'll run top 10.

9 - Vow and Declare
Down to a more manageable weight, runs two miles and looks to be back in some semblance of form, which means you have to throw him into your exotics (despite the rock bottom odds) as he's won a stronger Cup than this.

10 - Lunar Flare
Not sure if she's aiming up here (came out of the Caulfield Cup today), but she's low flying, beat a solid Moonee Valley Cup field last year and looks to be going better than ever now. Again, likely not classy enough but I can see her lobbing into the top 10 at big odds if she goes here.

There are a couple outside that could run decent races if things go their way:

DUAIS - seems out of form. Return to best would put her up there.
GREAT HOUSE - not sure he handled the back up last year?
THROUGH IRISH EYES/HORRIFYING - don't think they have the class but seem like the rock hard fit, tough types that could win a Lexus and stay on into the top 10.
SAN HUBERTO - first up run was good, stays the trip, just needs to get in? Long spell - soundness concerns?

 

[iluvparis]

Like I said last year Its actually the complete opposite - the lack of depth makes it much easier for the good horses to win and makes the weights much less relevant.

Those last 4 you mentioned couldn’t place if they started today for example and runners like that will make up half the field

 

[HeathySure]

The general consensus is pretty spot on, there's not a lot of depth here and it's certainly not a strong renewal, which means that some horses who appear outclassed in a typical Melbourne Cup could come into calculations. You could honestly put a pen through almost of all of these, but I'll come up with my own rankings to join in.

1 - Deauville Legend
Seems the logical one at this stage pending how he travels. Think he has a good form line - liked Hoo Ya Mal at the weights too but I think he's a non stayer after his Leger run.

2 - Gold Trip
Thought he was solid enough in the Naturalism, just ran out of fitness late on a bog. Will stay the trip and has a class edge on these.

3 - Young Werther
I thought his run was good first up, loves Flemington and is trained by the right guy for this race.

4 - Spanish Mission
Think it'll be tough for him with 58kg but he's very reliable on the dry and can't see him missing the top 5.

5 - Durston
Racing in much lower grade, but is winning with substance and is one that I hope beats the handicapper (don't bother winning the Metrop).

6 - Without A Fight
Has been winning 3 horse G3's but is winning in the manner of a horse with plenty in hand. His form in decent mile and a half races in Dubai is good.

7 - Montefilia
In my opinion, the classiest local in the race. I have big doubts on her running the two miles, but she's tough, versatile and is more seasoned now.

8 - Alegron
I have a class doubt on him (like basically all of the locals) but he is dependable, stays well and likes Flemington. Think he'll run top 10.

9 - Vow and Declare
Down to a more manageable weight, runs two miles and looks to be back in some semblance of form, which means you have to throw him into your exotics (despite the rock bottom odds) as he's won a stronger Cup than this.

10 - Lunar Flare
Not sure if she's aiming up here (came out of the Caulfield Cup today), but she's low flying, beat a solid Moonee Valley Cup field last year and looks to be going better than ever now. Again, likely not classy enough but I can see her lobbing into the top 10 at big odds if she goes here.

There are a couple outside that could run decent races if things go their way:

DUAIS - seems out of form. Return to best would put her up there.
GREAT HOUSE - not sure he handled the back up last year?
THROUGH IRISH EYES/HORRIFYING - don't think they have the class but seem like the rock hard fit, tough types that could win a Lexus and stay on into the top 10.
SAN HUBERTO - first up run was good, stays the trip, just needs to get in? Long spell - soundness concerns?

congratulations, Paris's comment is as nice as i have ever seen to a first time poster!! By the way your Gold Trip post is spot on but the Caulfield Cup is its race. close to a moral

 

[speedingaway]

Like I said last year Its actually the complete opposite - the lack of depth makes it much easier for the good horses to win and makes the weights much less relevant.

Those last 4 you mentioned couldn’t place if they started today for example and runners like that will make up half the field

Taking out Eldar Eldarov, Western Empire, Alfred Boucher and Earl of Tyrone has a horse like Paternal at no.24 in the ballot and there's a still a month and a bit to go ‍

 

[Jugada]

Without a Fight 2nd at Newmarket splitting Siskany and Passion and Glory

Was left pretty flat when they sprinted but got going the last furlong. Would have liked to see a better run

 

[iluvparis]

Without a Fight 2nd at Newmarket splitting Siskany and Passion and Glory

Was left pretty flat when they sprinted but got going the last furlong. Would have liked to see a better run

Slow as treacle. Can pen it and Makram after last night.

 

[iluvparis]

Add King of the Cattle to the penning list if you hadn't already

 

[speedingaway]

No idea what he's being aimed at, but that was an impressive win from Regal Lion. Still in the Cups and has passed the ballot.

 

[iluvparis]

No idea what he's being aimed at, but that was an impressive win from Regal Lion. Still in the Cups and has passed the ballot.

3000/1 available at parisbet

 

[balmainforever]

3000/1 available at parisbet

Sorry. Don’t take gross unders

 

[iluvparis]

POWER RANKINGS - MARKING TIME

Not much happening this week with next week looking likely to cause a semi decent shake up.

#1 DEAUVILLE LEGEND (Betfair $8.20; Last week #1) - Firmed a point this week as I expect he will each week until race day - hard to see how he doesn't jump clear fave.
#2 GOLD TRIP ($29, #2) - Big mover in markets this week with CC the confirmed path (perhaps via Saturday's Turnbull).
#3 MONTEFILIA ($25, #3) - Another firmer this week and will run in either the Hill or the Turnbull
#4 SPANISH MISSION ($16.5, #5) - Earns his chance to drop out of the list completely if he dogs it in what is looking an horrifically poor Bart Cummings
#5 DUAIS ($17.50, #6) - D-day Saturday in the Turnbull - could be completely in the chair
#6 WITHOUT A FIGHT ($38, #4) - Looking one paced at listed level over 2400m in your last race before coming out is not what you want to see - only stays on the list because the rest are dross
#7 HOO YA MAL ($29, #7) - Waiting for something to show something so I can push him further off the page
#8 DURSTON ($70, #8) - Goes around in the Metrop this week as a likely winner but that ain't Cup form
#9 ALEGRON ($26, #9) - Absolutely poison odds and now they piss away a G1 Metrop to get lapped in the Turnbull
#10 YOUNG WERTHER ($34, u/r) - Has 4 legs ran ok first up and is in the race - that's more than enough to make the list these days

 

[Toronado]

3000/1 available at parisbet

C'mon Paris, you have Daqiansweet Junior at 30000/1 so 3000/1 for Regal Lion is just insulting. I can tell you from the horse's mouth that he won't be lining up this year in the big cup, maybe Geelong but 2023 is the plan at this stage. RL can't go a yard in the heavy so needs a dry track hence the turnaround in form today. You'll see an improved run in the Bart Cummings from DSJ now he's getting out to a decent trip so can I possibly get some credit with Parisbet? You'll be winding him in to 2000/1 come Sat arvo

 

[Toronado]

Sorry. Don’t take gross unders

RL wont be there come third declarations. we don't want to completely ruin him as a young staying prospect. Get on with parisbet for MC in 2023

 

[Toronado]

No idea what he's being aimed at, but that was an impressive win from Regal Lion. Still in the Cups and has passed the ballot.

Possible tilt at Geelong Cup this prep. Hates heavy tracks so be wary of the wet with RL. Tommy Berry got off after Randwick run and said hadn't ridden anything that went worse on a bog heavy like RL.

 

[plays tall 1]

Waterville wins the Irish St Leger but no suggestion that the Melbourne Cup is still on the agenda and, in any event, he hasn’t met the qualifying condition as far as I can tell.

 

[iluvparis]

Waterville wins the Irish St Leger but no suggestion that the Melbourne Cup is still on the agenda and, in any event, he hasn’t met the qualifying condition as far as I can tell.

Irish ceserawitch which at no point at any stage has been or will be Melbourne cup form

 

[iluvparis]

C'mon Paris, you have Daqiansweet Junior at 30000/1 so 3000/1 for Regal Lion is just insulting. I can tell you from the horse's mouth that he won't be lining up this year in the big cup, maybe Geelong but 2023 is the plan at this stage. RL can't go a yard in the heavy so needs a dry track hence the turnaround in form today. You'll see an improved run in the Bart Cummings from DSJ now he's getting out to a decent trip so can I possibly get some credit with Parisbet? You'll be winding him in to 2000/1 come Sat arvo

DSJ is not winning a Melbourne cup unless he somehow draws a special barrier that some how opens 50m further up the straight

 

[plays tall 1]

Irish ceserawitch which at no point at any stage has been or will be Melbourne cup form

Cesarewitch yep sorry, half asleep typing that I think.

 

[iluvparis]

Cesarewitch yep sorry, half asleep typing that I think.

Had he won the St Leger I'd be balls deep on another voided futures ticket

 

[HeathySure]

Possible tilt at Geelong Cup this prep. Hates heavy tracks so be wary of the wet with RL. Tommy Berry got off after Randwick run and said hadn't ridden anything that went worse on a bog heavy like RL.

you breed not bad horses i like you as a sire

 

[Jugada]

Gold Trip @ 701 boosted Sportsbet to do the Cups double. Will do me for a pineapple