Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[iluvparis]

Usually i would agree with you, but the 2 in front blew the field away even with the weights they had. Now they have done it and i would have no problems backing them against good horses. Yes the field was terrible, but the 1st four destroyed the rest of the field. She settled because there was pace instead of her usual pulling and look what she did.

One of those four was Floating Artist though - and don't forget Spanish Mission has never won a G1 race in Europe.

 

[HeathySure]

One of those four was Floating Artist though - and don't forget Spanish Mission has never won a G1 race in Europe.

Floating Artist had 50kgs. And VE ran away from Spanish Mission who couldn't run down Incent who did all the hard work and should have capitulated earlier.

 

[RobbyRoy]

Being back on course today was outstanding, but even more so was that display by Verry Elleegant. Could not have had her in a million years going into the race, however she truly proved her greatness today. Her turn of foot when asked at the top of the straight, reserved for so few… Prepared to call it a ‘where were you when moment’ . My first reaction was to stand up and applaud, forget the bloody punt.

Great to hear. The best way to overcome these idiots coming in with no idea what happens in the industry is by showing the love of the horse outweighing the love of the punt.

On that note, always good news when we get no deaths on our biggest day.

 

[Ah12]

One of those four was Floating Artist though - and don't forget Spanish Mission has never won a G1 race in Europe.

And VE put panels on SM. 5 lengths running away making him look like he was stuck in the mud.

 

[iluvparis]

And VE put panels on SM. 5 lengths running away making him look like he was stuck in the mud.

Yesterday was the closest SM has ever finished to the winner in a Group 1

 

[Ah12]

Yesterday was the closest SM has ever finished to the winner in a Group 1

Yesterday was the closest SM has ever finished to the winner in a Group 1

Didnt he go toe to toe with Stradivarius over two miles

 

[juss]

That was a stunning win by VE. Obviously an awesome horse, but didn't think she necessarily had a Melbourne Cup win at 3200m in her.

I've backed her the last few times where she's been near abouts but not winning. Of course this was the one I didn't back her

The real salt in the wound was I had 15% of the Quaddie, and it included the winners of races 8, 9 and 10 , included about 6 horses in the Cup and none of them were VE

 

[Big Bryza]

Swap the runs and the result probably goes the other way.

Incy doesn't have the turn of foot that VE has.

Anyone hanging shit on Prebble for the ride genuinely has NFI.

He did the same thing in the CC and brained them.

 

[Big Bryza]

People after incentivise beats ve the other week

“She’ll never get near him if she couldn’t beat him today”

“He will brain her in the cup”

Seems like lane couldn’t ride her for sh*t jmac back on and gets the job done

Hindsight Harry.

Incy ran a belter with a ****ed leg and got beaten by a champion mare.

 

[iluvparis]

Didnt he go toe to toe with Stradivarius over two miles

Group 2

 

[iluvparis]

Watching the Oaks replays on Racing.com - have a look at this utter milk drinker in red and blue that the mugs kept piling into the entire spring - barely even gets into the finishing shot

 

[Jugada]

Didnt he go toe to toe with Stradivarius over two miles

Strad is a shadow of his former self these days

 

[Jugada]

Incy doesn't have the turn of foot that VE has.

Anyone hanging sh*t on Prebble for the ride genuinely has NFI.

He did the same thing in the CC and brained them.

Yep awful calls anyone blaming the run. If you're backing the shortest priced fav in a Cup since Phar Lap then you just want him to have his chance. Weren't many calls of terrible ride in the CC when Prebble pulled out 3 deep at the 1000m after already working hard for the first 800m. Horse just wasn't at the same level this time

 

[FallingLiefs]

 

[Slipps]

Being back on course today was outstanding, but even more so was that display by Verry Elleegant. Could not have had her in a million years going into the race, however she truly proved her greatness today. Her turn of foot when asked at the top of the straight, reserved for so few… Prepared to call it a ‘where were you when moment’ . My first reaction was to stand up and applaud, forget the bloody punt.

Well said

 

[HeathySure]

Yep awful calls anyone blaming the run. If you're backing the shortest priced fav in a Cup since Phar Lap then you just want him to have his chance. Weren't many calls of terrible ride in the CC when Prebble pulled out 3 deep at the 1000m after already working hard for the first 800m. Horse just wasn't at the same level this time

Racing outside the leader is lengths disadvantage in any staying race and especially in a fast run race. 1 horse in history has won the Melbourne cup doing it. . He was massive. I dont blame Prebble for his ride as the barrier forced his hand, in hindsight the only mistake he made was not going to the front but that is hindsight.

Example of a horse being disadvantaged outside the leader, Shared Ambition led against Think it over in 2000m and got beaten a nose. Next start under exact same conditions sat outside the leader and got beaten 4.

 

[year of the cat]

Incy doesn't have the turn of foot that VE has.

Anyone hanging sh*t on Prebble for the ride genuinely has NFI.

He did the same thing in the CC and brained them.

Wasn't meant to be a criticism of Prebble's ride. IC clearly though had the tougher run of the two.

 

[Big Bryza]

Wasn't meant to be a criticism of Prebble's ride. IC clearly though had the tougher run of the two.

Wasn't a dig at you. More a general comment.

Incent has run a cracking race especially pulling up sore.

 

[iluvparis]

Interesting VE's last 5 runs at 2400m+

Bolts in AJC Oaks
Bolts in BMW
Rolls AVD in Caulfield Cup
Huge run from too far back in last year's Melbourne Cup
Bolts in Melbourne Cup

She has won 10 G1s and there are legitimately 3 races on the calendar that actually suit her best as an older horse and two of those are handicaps.

 

[PP34]

I thought Incentivise was massive considering the run, where it has come from and how enormous Very Eleegant has run.

For racing and my own pocket I was hoping it bolted in so it’s a shame it didn’t but it still was enormous. Especially if there is truth to the talk it wasn’t right going around the bend.

Weak field or not it has gapped the rest in a race where ratings wise the winner has pulled something epic out.

I’ve got a feeling we haven’t seen the best of it yet. Shame it will get weighted out of future cups. Would dream of owning a horse that has done what it has since March.

Couldn’t have the winner as a big bet based off last year and the stats against it. It has pulled out something massive. It has always been a horse that does that sort of thing. A bit hard to catch at times.

 

[54Dogs]

You would think VE and Incy could meet again in the Tancred, would be a cracking race

 

[99 Problems]

Interesting VE's last 5 runs at 2400m+

Bolts in AJC Oaks
Bolts in BMW
Rolls AVD in Caulfield Cup
Huge run from too far back in last year's Melbourne Cup
Bolts in Melbourne Cup

She has won 10 G1s and there are legitimately 3 races on the calendar that actually suit her best as an older horse and two of those are handicaps.

I think if she does go overseas this will most likely be why, what’s realistically left that suits her best here? She’d still be competitive WFA 2000 for example, but it’s only going to be even harder for her to win against real quality over shorter trips next prep. I’d love them to try it. If she gets found out over there it doesn’t take anything away from what she’s done here.

I expect they won’t though. Every chance she has a short prep in the autumn and they decide that’s enough for her.

 

[iluvparis]

I think if she does go overseas this will most likely be why, what’s realistically left that suits her best here? She’d still be competitive WFA 2000 for example, but it’s only going to be even harder for her to win against real quality over shorter trips next prep. I’d love them to try it. If she gets found out over there it doesn’t take anything away from what she’s done here.

I expect they won’t though. Every chance she has a short prep in the autumn and they decide that’s enough for her.

BMW which she should be going for 3 in a row.

They've missed the boat on going OS and just like they kept claiming with Winx we know Waller will squib it in the end. They needed to go to last years Arc where it was a dead set Heavy 13 and all the top guns didn't handle it.

Can't see her being a factor in a King George off the Sydney Autumn so that only really leaves next years Arc which is basically 12 months away.

 

[Mobythepom]

POWER RANKINS - FINAL FRONTIER

Last set of Power Rankings before the final field is sorted next Saturday.

#1 INCENTIVISE (Last week #1, betfair $2.84) - Just a complete and utter stone bonking moral if it stays the trip - no need to look anwyhere else
#2 VERRY ELLEEGANT (#2, $18.5) - No surprised to see her challenging for third fave off a slashing Cox Plate run that suggested she is looking for further - probably needs a career best to win with the weight which looks unlikely but can easily place in the worst edition for 20 years
#3 SPANISH MISSION (#3, $7.80) - Maybe the only one left standing if the fave doesn't stay but is rock bottom for the kind of 3200/4000+ plugger that generally run well but struggle to win
#4 TWILIGHT PAYMENT (#4, $20) - Joseph may be the only trainer on earth capable of getting a 9yo to win a Melbourne Cup off top weight but surely even this miracle proves a bridge too far
#5 PERSAN (#5, $36) - 5th last year and placed in a Caulfield Cup. Can run top 5 again - cant win
#6 GRAND PROMENDAE (#6, $15.50) - Was obvious his dominant winter wins were more than good enough to see him right in this given Brisbane staying form was being talked up. Well done if you took the $60s then - he is utter poison at his current quote though
#7 SIR LUCAN (#10, $75) - Surely not!?! $140 into $75 on the fair this week and the attrition is through the roof! Jumps to clear #3 seed if he gets a run.
#8 DELPHI (u/r, $55) - Now that he is pressing on he goes back in as an outside chance but needs to turn around a horrendous CC run - at least you'll get a price this time
#9 AWAY HE GOES (#8, 18.5) - Absolute poison odds given he was flogged in the Slowbor but the locals are that bad he can run top 10.
#10 TRALEE ROSE (u/r, $18.5) - Nice Geelong Cup win but horrific unders given she was beaten out of sight in an Adelaide Cup - hard to see her turning the tables on Grand Promenade from the Bart Cummings either

Just having a quick final reread through this thread before closing the chapter and getting on board the Sonnyboyliston train for 2022 ....not a bad top 3 prediction above. Fair play!