Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[TeeKray]

This thread was started on 3 September 2008 and we finally achieved the first bit yesterday lol.

 

[gbear]

This thread was started on 3 September 2008 and we finally achieved the first bit yesterday lol.

Definitely worth a bump

 

[FishingRick04]

This thread was started on 3 September 2008 and we finally achieved the first bit yesterday lol.

sometimes we need to be patient

 

[OneGreatClub]

This thread was started on 3 September 2008 and we finally achieved the first bit yesterday lol.

Who is the OP?
Great foresight

 

[VineValerian]

sometimes we need to be patient

The earth is slow, but the ox is patient................

 

[Janus]

 

[gbear]

sometimes we need to be patient

Very, very patient

 

[PJ Power]

This thread was started on 3 September 2008 and we finally achieved the first bit yesterday lol.

As long as it doesn’t take another 12 years to nail the second part of the equation : getting that flag

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Woosha has been speaking some crap about Essendon lately but he got this right in his presser after the Essendon games. From Rucci's review including some of his thoughts

Rucci's Monday Review: History in the making

Port Adelaide is poised to join a very small list among AFL minor premiers - and Michelangelo Rucci learns from a premiership coach how there might be more advantages with the minor crown this year.

www.portadelaidefc.com.au

"(Port Adelaide) did not fluke it," said Worsfold. "You stay top for a long time, it shows how good you are. And in a 17-game season when everyone plays each other once, there is no easy draw.

"They've worked hard for six to seven years. They've committed themselves to it; they've stuck at it," added Worsfold noting a national AFL with its equalisation levers of salary caps and drafts - unlike the old State leagues of the VFL and SANFL - does not allow grand, traditional clubs to be more successful or turn around their fortunes quicker than others.

Port Adelaide might not have the label of premiership favourite, even after leading this demanding AFL home-and-away season from the start in mid-March. But it has stripped itself of one stigma by finding repetitive wins - and, for the first time since entering the AFL in 1997, following up each of the three losses with a telling victory.

In 2002 and 2003 we lost the first 2 games and in 2004 lost Rd 7 Showdown then got spanked by North in Rd 8.

Well that's proof right there we have improved.

But this bold bit below is crap. I read it and immediately thought of this game - 13 goalkickers. There are many more example of 10 or more individual goal kickers in a game.

AFL Tables - Port Adelaide v Hawthorn - Fri, 17-Jun-2005 8:10 PM (8:40 PM) - Match Stats

afltables.com

Dixon's two goals were the team high in the 11-goal tally than included singles from nine players - Travis Boak, Xavier Duursma, Brad Ebert, Robbie Gray, comeback ruckman Peter Ladhams, Steven Motlop, Sam Powell-Pepper, Tom Rockliff and Ollie Wines.

For the first time in 545 AFL home-and-away matches and finals since 1997, Port Adelaide had 10 goalscorers in a game .. and therefore cannot be described as heavily reliant or singularly focused on Dixon.

 

[Powerage]

Woosha has been speaking some crap about Essendon lately but he got this right in his presser after the Essendon games. From Rucci's review including some of his thoughts

Rucci's Monday Review: History in the making

Port Adelaide is poised to join a very small list among AFL minor premiers - and Michelangelo Rucci learns from a premiership coach how there might be more advantages with the minor crown this year.

www.portadelaidefc.com.au

"(Port Adelaide) did not fluke it," said Worsfold. "You stay top for a long time, it shows how good you are. And in a 17-game season when everyone plays each other once, there is no easy draw.

"They've worked hard for six to seven years. They've committed themselves to it; they've stuck at it," added Worsfold noting a national AFL with its equalisation levers of salary caps and drafts - unlike the old State leagues of the VFL and SANFL - does not allow grand, traditional clubs to be more successful or turn around their fortunes quicker than others.

Port Adelaide might not have the label of premiership favourite, even after leading this demanding AFL home-and-away season from the start in mid-March. But it has stripped itself of one stigma by finding repetitive wins - and, for the first time since entering the AFL in 1997, following up each of the three losses with a telling victory.

In 2002 and 2003 we lost the first 2 games and in 2004 lost Rd 7 Showdown then got spanked by North in Rd 8.

Well that's proof right there we have improved.

But this bold bit below is crap. I read it and immediately thought of this game - 13 goalkickers. There are many more example of 10 or more individual goal kickers in a game.

AFL Tables - Port Adelaide v Hawthorn - Fri, 17-Jun-2005 8:10 PM (8:40 PM) - Match Stats

afltables.com

Dixon's two goals were the team high in the 11-goal tally than included singles from nine players - Travis Boak, Xavier Duursma, Brad Ebert, Robbie Gray, comeback ruckman Peter Ladhams, Steven Motlop, Sam Powell-Pepper, Tom Rockliff and Ollie Wines.

For the first time in 545 AFL home-and-away matches and finals since 1997, Port Adelaide had 10 goalscorers in a game .. and therefore cannot be described as heavily reliant or singularly focused on Dixon.

That game against Hawthorn was a lot of fun.

To be fair to us, we would have had 13 goalkickers against Essendon if Marshall, Rozee had managed very gettable shots and if McKenzie had kicked just a bit straigher from 60 metres out. Also, the game was shortened which would likely have resulted in more goalkickers anyway. Amon also kicked an absolute shocker which went out on the full too. Mind you not too many rucks kick a goal like Laddhams did.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Update post #648


From outside the 8th to top 4
1994: Richmond (9th) finished 3rd in 1995
1995: Sydney (12th) finished 1st in 1996
1996: Adelaide (12th), St.Kilda (10th) and Bulldogs (15th) finished 4th, 1st, and 3rd in 1997
1997: Melbourne (16th) finished 4th in 1998
1998: Brisbane (16th) finished 3rd in 1999
1999: Melbourne (14th) finished 3rd in 2000
2000: Port (14th) finished 3rd in 2001, Richmond (9th) finished 4th in 2001
2001: Collingwood (9th) finished 4th in 2002.
2002: Sydney (11th) finished 4th in 2003
2003: Geelong (12th) finished 4th in 2004, St.Kilda (11th) finished 3rd in 2004.
2004: Adelaide (12th) finished 1st in 2005
2005: Fremantle (10th) finished 3rd in 2006
2006: Geelong (10th), Port (12th) and North (14th) finished 1st, 2nd, and 4th in 2007.
2007: Western Bulldogs(13th) and St Kilda (9th) finished 3rd and 4th on the ladder in 2008.
2008: None - Collingwood go from 8th to 4th in 2009
2009: None - same 4 teams as 2009 make up top 4 in 2010 Coll, Gee, Saints, Dogs
2010: West Coast 16th to 4th in 2011
2011: Adelaide 14th to 2nd in 2012
2012: None - Fremantle 7th to 3rd and then a GF in 2013
2013: None - same 4 Syd,Haw,Gee,Freo, but Gee + Freo lose 2 finals, and North 10th 2013 to PF in 2014
2014: West Coast 9th to 2nd in 2015
2015: GWS 11th to 4th in 2016
2016: Richmond 13th to 3rd after 22 games then Premiers in 2017
2017: Collingwood 13th to 3rd after 22 games to GF in 2018
2018: Brisbane 15th to 2nd after 22 games, but lost both finals in 2019
2019: Port 10th to 1st after Covid 17 games minor round


At least one team from the top 8 has dropped out to finish in the BOTTOM FOUR every year until GC and GWS were introduce. First 4 years with new teams there was no example of this. Since then its been 3 out of 4 years.

2016: - Freo minor premiers and 3rd in 2015 to 16th
2017: - North 8th in 2016 to 15th
2018: - None - Port 5th in 2017 to 10th was biggest drop
2019: - Melbourne 5th but made a PF in 2018 but 17th in 2019, Syd 6th 2018 15th 2019
2020: - None GWS 6th but make GF in 2019 end up 10th in 2020 was biggest drop

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Put this in the McClelland trophy thread the other day.

Between 2000-19 ie using the current finals system, finishing

1st - 70% chance to make a GF, 30% chance to win a flag
2nd - 60% chance to make a GF, 35% chance to win a flag
3rd - 50% chance to make a GF, 30% chance to win a flag
4th - 10% chance to make a GF, 0% chance to win a flag
6th - 5% chance to make a GF, 0% chance to win a flag
7th - 5% chance to make a GF, 5% chance to win a flag

So being minor premiers guarantees you nothing!! But it gives you the best chance to make a GF.




and someone linked a page with these stats - but cant find the link - and have broken up their graphics,






Out in Straight Sets by Top 4 teams - 8 examples. 1st has never happened
6 of 8 teams have lost one of their 2 finals by single digits.

2nd
Non Vic Bris 2019 (47+3pts)

3rd
Vic...... Geelong 2014 (34+6pts), Hawks 2016 (2+23pts) Geel and Hawks lost both games at the MCG
Non Vic Port 2001 (32+3pts), WCE 2007 - in extra time against Coll 21 pts, after losing QF to Port by 3 pts.

4th
Vic...... Haw 2018 (31+33pts)
Non Vic Freo 2014(24+22pts), Sydney 2015 (9+26pts)

 

[Arintaraj]

Put this in the McClelland trophy thread the other day.

Between 2000-19 ie using the current finals system, finishing

1st - 70% chance to make a GF, 30% chance to win a flag
2nd - 60% chance to make a GF, 35% chance to win a flag
3rd - 50% chance to make a GF, 30% chance to win a flag
4th - 10% chance to make a GF, 0% chance to win a flag
6th - 5% chance to make a GF, 0% chance to win a flag
7th - 5% chance to make a GF, 5% chance to win a flag

So being minor premiers guarantees you nothing!! But it gives you the best chance to make a GF.


View attachment 973139

and someone linked a page with these stats - but cant find the link - and have broken up their graphics,



View attachment 973131

View attachment 973132

View attachment 973133


View attachment 973135

View attachment 973137

Those stats are from Tony Corke's very excellent Matter of Stats: http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-wagers-and-tips/2020/9/24/2020-round-19-week-1-of-the-finals

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th all go thru to the PF.

Between 2000 - 2013, 54 of 56 teams in the top 4 got thru to the PF, 2001 Port and 2007 WCE being the exceptions.

Between 2014 - 2019 18 of 24 teams in the top 4 got thru to the PF. 6 who didn't is listed above in post #663.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

On Sunday had a look at Richmond's age and experience profile of this years side knowing from a Swamp post a few weeks ago (see below) that Geelong were fielding the oldest ever team this finals series.

That got me looking at the age profile of the dynasty teams yesterday. Reckon Richmond have 1 more flag left in theirs given their profile. If Houli retires and 1 or 2 other older players drop away they will stay around that 27 years of age next September. But cant see Riewoldt, Edwards and Cotchin maybe Astbury and Grimes being their post 2022.

Then I checked out Port's profile when they stopped Brisbane, got smashed at the start of Geelong dynasty and two close prelim finals, if they went they other way would have derailed the other 2 dynasties.

Geelong's age profile in 2020 was a year older than in 2011. Hawthorn after losing to Sydney in 2012 just kept adding experience - Lake, McEvoy, Frawley etc. Port finally got the chance to match Brisbane and were a similar age.

In 2014 Hawthorn were on average 2 years older than Port players. If you look at Port v Richmond profile this year, we have more players at the extreme ends 9 v 4 but Richmond had a lot more players in those middle age brackets.

 

[Andre]

On Sunday had a look at Richmond's age and experience profile of this years side knowing from a Swamp post a few weeks ago (see below) that Geelong were fielding the oldest ever team this finals series.

That got me looking at the age profile of the dynasty teams yesterday. Reckon Richmond have 1 more flag left in theirs given their profile. If Houli retires and 1 or 2 other older players drop away they will stay around that 27 years of age next September. But cant see Riewoldt, Edwards and Cotchin maybe Astbury and Grimes being their post 2022.

Then I checked out Port's profile when they stopped Brisbane, got smashed at the start of Geelong dynasty and two close prelim finals, if they went they other way would have derailed the other 2 dynasties.

Geelong's age profile in 2020 was a year older than in 2011. Hawthorn after losing to Sydney in 2012 just kept adding experience - Lake, McEvoy, Frawley etc. Port finally got the chance to match Brisbane and were a similar age.

In 2014 Hawthorn were on average 2 years older than Port players. If you look at Port v Richmond profile this year, we have more players at the extreme ends 9 v 4 but Richmond had a lot more players in those middle age brackets.

View attachment 996412

The main one I take out of this, is how angry everyone should be about 2015-2019. That 2014 age profile should have been the start of another Port golden era

 

[tribey]

The main one I take out of this, is how angry everyone should be about 2015-2019. That 2014 age profile should have been the start of another Port golden era

All the hoopla about Rozee (20y 268d), Duursma (20y 101d) and Butters (20y 38d) as the vanguard of a glittering future, when Polec (21y 343d), Wingard (21y 53d) and Wines (19y 348d) were streets ahead at the time of the commensurate Prelim loss, and in a much younger team as a whole (24y 370d/1 x 30yo versus 26y 145d/6 x 30yo).

But no, the boffins tell me the future is much brighter this time.

 

[Andre]

All the hoopla about Rozee (20y 268d), Duursma (20y 101d) and Butters (20y 38d) as the vanguard of a glittering future, when Polec (21y 343d), Wingard (21y 53d) and Wines (19y 348d) were streets ahead at the time of the commensurate Prelim loss, and in a much younger team as a whole (24y 370d/1 x 30yo versus 26y 145d/6 x 30yo).

But no, the boffins tell me the future is much brighter this time.

We have at least progressed to leaving Ken only being able to fantasize about a 6 dwarf forward line with a 4'8 leading KPF target, now the list managers have taken his toys away. Another 8 years and it could reach knowing 'bomb it on the head of the one triple teamed every time' is not the only option to coach.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Of the 4 teams that have won the flag 3 times this century, 3 of them lost an away QF, then won an away PF in the season they won their 3rd flag -

* Brisbane in 2003 lost to Coll at MCG QF, then beat Swans at the Olympic Stadium PF,
* Hawks in 2015 lost to WCE at Subi QF, then beat Freo at Subi PF, and
* Richmond in 2020 lost to Brisbane at Gabba QF, then beat Port at the AO PF.

All 3 sides had the same coach for all 3 flags. Let's hope the sequence means an end for Richmond's success.

The only other sides to have lost a QF and then win a PF and then win the flag, under the current final 8 that started in 2000 season, are when the Swans and WCE had that great run of close games against each other and kept swapping results -

* Sydney 2005 lose QF at Subi by 4 pts, then beat Saints at MCG PF, and beat WCE by 4 pts in GF.
* WCE 2006 lose QF to Swans at Subi by 1 pt, then beat crows at Footy Park PF, and beat Swans by 1 pt in GF.

Brisbane and Hawthorn did it in their 3rd season, Richmond in their 4th season of their sequence.

Geelong won their 3rd flag in their 5th season but played 3 GF's in a row 2007-09. In the 4th season of that sequence, ie 2010 they lost a QF and PF at the MCG against local teams and then swapped coaches.

If Richmond win a flag in 2021, then Hardwick stamps himself into the history books of greatness.

Let's remember, after we agreed to give Choco an extension after that stupid 30 June 2009 clause was inserted back in 2007, we had to give him an answer whether we would re-sign him by 30 June, Choco and Rohde went and talked to Hardwick a few weeks later and asked him to return to Port and work under Choco for two seasons and take over after 2011 season finished as part of a succession plan.

Hardwick had applied for the Richmond job and told Choco he would give him an answer after he found out about the Richmond job. Benny Gale was announced as CEO on 10th August 2009, Hardwick was announced as coach on 25th August 2009.

What does footy history look like if the Richmond board said no to Hardwick?

 

[GremioPower]

What does footy history look like if the Richmond board said no to Hardwick?

Wouldn’t there be a second moment, looking from a Tiger perspective, when they might have fired him?

 

[Tibbs]

Wouldn’t there be a second moment, looking from a Tiger perspective, when they might have fired him?

They came very close ... I am not a betting man, but I would have bet that he was gone then. They looked a shambles on every front, but they chose to keep him, and restructure everything around him. In hindsight .... Brilliant.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Wouldn’t there be a second moment, looking from a Tiger perspective, when they might have fired him?

That was called for by the group challening the board in 2016 but the board and CEO backed him in, but forced him to do some study in US and changed people around him.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Update post #648

I reckon Richmond will keep the trend going in 2022 and either Brisbane or Port don't make the top 4, and I reckon GWS might continue the trend of top 8 side one year, bottom 4 the next.


From outside the 8th to top 4
1994: Richmond (9th) finished 3rd in 1995
1995: Sydney (12th) finished 1st in 1996
1996: Adelaide (12th), St.Kilda (10th) and Bulldogs (15th) finished 4th, 1st, and 3rd in 1997
1997: Melbourne (16th) finished 4th in 1998
1998: Brisbane (16th) finished 3rd in 1999
1999: Melbourne (14th) finished 3rd in 2000
2000: Port (14th) finished 3rd in 2001, Richmond (9th) finished 4th in 2001
2001: Collingwood (9th) finished 4th in 2002.
2002: Sydney (11th) finished 4th in 2003
2003: Geelong (12th) finished 4th in 2004, St.Kilda (11th) finished 3rd in 2004.
2004: Adelaide (12th) finished 1st in 2005
2005: Fremantle (10th) finished 3rd in 2006
2006: Geelong (10th), Port (12th) and North (14th) finished 1st, 2nd, and 4th in 2007.
2007: Western Bulldogs(13th) and St Kilda (9th) finished 3rd and 4th on the ladder in 2008.
2008: None - Collingwood go from 8th to 4th in 2009
2009: None - same 4 teams as 2009 make up top 4 in 2010 Coll, Gee, Saints, Dogs
2010: West Coast 16th to 4th in 2011
2011: Adelaide 14th to 2nd in 2012
2012: None - Fremantle 7th to 3rd and then a GF in 2013
2013: None - same 4 Syd,Haw,Gee,Freo, but Gee + Freo lose 2 finals, and North 10th 2013 to PF in 2014
2014: West Coast 9th to 2nd in 2015
2015: GWS 11th to 4th in 2016
2016: Richmond 13th to 3rd after 22 games then Premiers in 2017
2017: Collingwood 13th to 3rd after 22 games to GF in 2018
2018: Brisbane 15th to 2nd after 22 games, but lost both finals in 2019
2019: Port 10th to 1st after Covid 17 games minor round lose PF
2020: Melbourne 9th to 1st after 22 games, win flag


And since 1995 at least one team from the top 8 has dropped out to finish in the BOTTOM FOUR every year until GC and GWS were introduce (see post #648 for full list). First 4 years with new teams there was no example of this. Since then its been 4 out of 6 years.

2016: - Freo minor premiers and 3rd in 2015 to 16th
2017: - North 8th in 2016 to 15th
2018: - None - Port 5th in 2017 to 10th was biggest drop
2019: - Melbourne 5th but made a PF in 2018 but 17th in 2019, Syd 6th 2018 15th 2019
2020: - None GWS 6th but make GF in 2019 end up 10th in 2020 was biggest drop
2021: - Collingwood 8th but made a SF in 2020 but 17th in 2021

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Last couple of years on the eve of the draft Whateley has had a 20 minute or so interview with Peter Blucher from Vivid Sport Management, looking back on the previous 10 years of the draft.

Blucher looks after players and coaches, inc Hinkley, and was a sports journo at Courier Mail for a decade, Brisbane Bullets media and PR manager for 5 years, then Brisbane Lions Communications manager for almost a decade to end of 2003, before starting up his own firm.

He goes thru every draft for previous 10 years and rates top few picks every year for following categories;
Games played, possessions, brownlow votes, All Australian, premiership players, and top 3 placings in club B&F's.

Its sort of what I started doing for each club who wins a flag in the early days of this thread, but he does it league wide.

Last 10 drafts at end of 2021 season.

Looking back at the last 10 AFL drafts with Peter Blucher (24.11.21)

Peter joined Gerard in the lead-up to the 2021 national draft, and pinpointed which players provided the most value in each pool from 2011 to 2020.

player.whooshkaa.com

Last 10 drafts at end of 2020 season.

What's in a draft? Peter Blucher on Whateley (25/11/20)

What's in a draft?Peter Blucher walks us through the 2012, 2013 and 2014 draft.

player.whooshkaa.com

I started doing a spreadsheet to list what he said with a few bits of data added to complete it. I only got to 2017. never got around to completing it, but listen to the podcasts and you make your own notes.

 

[PJ Power]

Last couple of years on the eve of the draft Whateley has had a 20 minute or so interview with Peter Blucher from Vivid Sport Management, looking back on the previous 10 years of the draft.

Blucher looks after players and coaches, inc Hinkley, and was a sports journo at Courier Mail for a decade, Brisbane Bullets media and PR manager for 5 years, then Brisbane Lions Communications manager for almost a decade to end of 2003, before starting up his own firm.

He goes thru every draft for previous 10 years and rates top few picks every year for following categories;
Games played, possessions, brownlow votes, All Australian, premiership players, and top 3 placings in club B&F's.

Its sort of what I started doing for each club who wins a flag in the early days of this thread, but he does it league wide.

Last 10 drafts at end of 2021 season.

Looking back at the last 10 AFL drafts with Peter Blucher (24.11.21)

Peter joined Gerard in the lead-up to the 2021 national draft, and pinpointed which players provided the most value in each pool from 2011 to 2020.

player.whooshkaa.com

Last 10 drafts at end of 2020 season.

What's in a draft? Peter Blucher on Whateley (25/11/20)

What's in a draft?Peter Blucher walks us through the 2012, 2013 and 2014 draft.

player.whooshkaa.com

I started doing a spreadsheet to list what he said with a few bits of data added to complete it. I only got to 2017. never got around to completing it, but listen to the podcasts and you make your own notes.

View attachment 1345644

Gee, we don’t feature at all prominently when they go through the cold, hard facts of how draftees have turned out. We have a lot of potentially good pick ups, but in terms of players who dominate their age-matched peers, relatively few over a ten year period. Wines and Houston basically. Very few steals like some of the other clubs also.